You've probably been aware of the thread in the general board that's all the rage by now. So let's think of this with respect to how it affects the Power conferences, not just college football in general.

Let's say both of these scenarios happen at around the same time. With the ND athletic director leading the charge to expand the CFP you can kiss goodbye any chance of the Domers entertaining any option of joining a conference. With two of the other big remaining pieces about to exit the market, there could emerge a situation where one conference will hog the vast majority of the attention in college football and the other four or three fighting for scraps (and the Domers standing by themselves continuing to play off the others).

So with those in place, radical realignment becomes even likely. There's no way the others could stand still while one clearly stakes a permanent position as heads and shoulders above the rest. Therefore, expect rumors of partial mergers of conferences, or perhaps big programs of the other conferences associating themselves as a collection. I don't think the reaction would be immediately, as presidents want to see how it all shakes out before pulling the trigger. As much as the playoffs are becoming more important to programs, the regular season will not lose as much importance. Programs will still have to fight for the new spots that will become open.

Now it's still possible that the CFP expanding would help keep the Power 5 in place, depending on whether the conference(s) that lose(s) can maintain their place in the pecking order.

(07-21-2021 07:40 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  You've probably been aware of the thread in the general board that's all the rage by now. So let's think of this with respect to how it affects the Power conferences, not just college football in general.

Let's say both of these scenarios happen at around the same time. With the ND athletic director leading the charge to expand the CFP you can kiss goodbye any chance of the Domers entertaining any option of joining a conference. With two of the other big remaining pieces about to exit the market, there could emerge a situation where one conference will hog the vast majority of the attention in college football and the other four or three fighting for scraps (and the Domers standing by themselves continuing to play off the others).

So with those in place, radical realignment becomes even likely. There's no way the others could stand still while one clearly stakes a permanent position as heads and shoulders above the rest. Therefore, expect rumors of partial mergers of conferences, or perhaps big programs of the other conferences associating themselves as a collection. I don't think the reaction would be immediately, as presidents want to see how it all shakes out before pulling the trigger. As much as the playoffs are becoming more important to programs, the regular season will not lose as much importance. Programs will still have to fight for the new spots that will become open.

Now it's still possible that the CFP expanding would help keep the Power 5 in place, depending on whether the conference(s) that lose(s) can maintain their place in the pecking order.

1. CFP talk is meaningless. It's a proposal which hasn't been approved and is subject to change.

2. If their is a breakaway all members will play within a confined League and will play only in League. At that point, whether we are two leagues within a greater one or 4 conferences Notre Dame will no longer be independent. They'll either be a part or be out. Independence is in scheduling. In a closed league that's gone.

3. So we consolidate down to 3 or 4 conferences in a contained system and eventually negotiate media deals as 1.

4. The only issue will be are you all in on pay for play and NIL and scholarships for all roster athletes or are you out?

(07-21-2021 10:19 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  There's one fly in the ointment though JR. The Big Ten could backstab E$PN for what they did. Remember that E$PN's contract with the Big Ten is coming up for renewal soon, and I do believe E$PN will get left out of negotiations now as for payback for not at least steering one of Oklahoma-Texas to the Big Ten. It was one thing while at least OU or Texas were in play for the Big Ten, but now that it is neither, the Big Ten can act with impunity against E$PN.

And the SEC would play Beverly Hillbillies and stand on the porch smiling and waiving bye! The Big 10 can't afford such a move. Iowa, Ohio State, Penn State, and Indiana wouldn't tolerate it. And neither would Nebraska.

The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean its changing to a P4. Instead a clear pecking order will be established based on conference revenue.

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big Ten, ACC and PAC won't expand unless it increases conference revenue. Otherwise they will stand pat to maintain their place in line.

The Big 12 will know its over as far as being a power conference but still can make moves to secure its position as the #5 football conference, which means grabbing at least 4 AAC schools. Depending on how many teams the Big 12 takes from AAC, the AAC might even drop to #7 in the pecking order behind the MWC.

(07-21-2021 10:40 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  How?? You told me before that E$PN likes to have at least a portion of the B1G in their inventory. Can E$PN actually part with it??

1. They won't have to as FOX doesn't offer the same exposure.

2. With OU and UT completely in house ESPN could live without access to Ohio State which is what they want anyway.

(07-21-2021 10:41 PM)goofus Wrote:  The concept of the P5 will be gone but that does not mean its changing to a P4. Instead a clear pecking order will be established based on conference revenue.

1. SEC (with Tex and Ok)
2. Big Ten
3. ACC, ND
4. PAC
5. Big 12 (with Hou, Cincy, Memphis, USF, UCF, BYU)
6. AAC
7. MWC
8. CUSA
9. SBC
10. MAC

If the plan is still to expand the CFP to 12 teams with the top 6 conference champions, then the Big Ten, ACC and PAC won't expand unless it increases conference revenue. Otherwise they will stand pat to maintain their place in line.

The Big 12 will know its over as far as being a power conference but still can make moves to secure its position as the #5 football conference, which means grabbing at least 4 AAC schools. Depending on how many teams the Big 12 takes from AAC, the AAC might even drop to #7 in the pecking order behind the MWC.

Would the PAC make a play for some Big 12 leftovers to get into Texas and the Central time zone? TCU and Texas Tech? Plus Kansas and Oklahoma State/Iowa State?

It means CFB as we know it is dead. There will only be 30ish schools between the SEC and B1G that truly matter.

(07-22-2021 06:31 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  It means CFB as we know it is dead. There will only be 30ish schools between the SEC and B1G that truly matter.

Sounds like the past few years since the 4-team CFP.

(07-22-2021 06:31 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  It means CFB as we know it is dead. There will only be 30ish schools between the SEC and B1G that truly matter.

Brother the reality is that’s the way its been for probably 30 years. In The ACC it’s Clemson, Florida State and Miami. The Big 12 it was Texas and Oklahoma. The PAC it’s SC and Oregon. Even in The SEC and Big Ten… only certain teams get consideration.

Its always been a beauty contest for the good ol’ boys. College football is a crock of s hit. Yesterday just confirmed it.

They are slowly killing the sport. Fewer kids are playing football. In 40-50 years soccer will be bigger.

(07-23-2021 09:17 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 06:31 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  It means CFB as we know it is dead. There will only be 30ish schools between the SEC and B1G that truly matter.

Brother the reality is that’s the way its been for probably 30 years. In The ACC it’s Clemson, Florida State and Miami. The Big 12 it was Texas and Oklahoma. The PAC it’s SC and Oregon. Even in The SEC and Big Ten… only certain teams get consideration.

Its always been a beauty contest for the good ol’ boys. College football is a crock of s hit. Yesterday just confirmed it.

They are slowly killing the sport. Fewer kids are playing football. In 40-50 years soccer will be bigger.

Jim something else has to be considered. Our history has been attacked, our monuments pulled down, Congress turned into a corporate whore house (both sides), and now college sports is being yanked around and all of them by corporate influences. Globalists want a world without national identities, bereft of heroes and icons, with governments so inept we beg for "benevolent" control and churches and colleges are under attack because they are the last rallying points for regular people to feel empowered and in corporate minds, resistant.

They want the world to be constantly focused on them. Since corporations now have the rights of a living being and no soul to go with it, and since they seek power and possessions, I leave it to you to see it for what it is. It was all prophesied. It's no accident, and neither is celebrating what we old timers called immoral.

Destroy college football and you destroy what brings 10's of thousands together every Saturday in the Fall just as they are with animus destroying worship.

(07-23-2021 09:42 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 09:17 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(07-22-2021 06:31 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  It means CFB as we know it is dead. There will only be 30ish schools between the SEC and B1G that truly matter.

Brother the reality is that’s the way its been for probably 30 years. In The ACC it’s Clemson, Florida State and Miami. The Big 12 it was Texas and Oklahoma. The PAC it’s SC and Oregon. Even in The SEC and Big Ten… only certain teams get consideration.

Its always been a beauty contest for the good ol’ boys. College football is a crock of s hit. Yesterday just confirmed it.

They are slowly killing the sport. Fewer kids are playing football. In 40-50 years soccer will be bigger.

Jim something else has to be considered. Our history has been attacked, our monuments pulled down, Congress turned into a corporate whore house (both sides), and now college sports is being yanked around and all of them by corporate influences. Globalists want a world without national identities, bereft of heroes and icons, with governments so inept we beg for "benevolent" control and churches and colleges are under attack because they are the last rallying points for regular people to feel empowered and in corporate minds, resistant.

They want the world to be constantly focused on them. Since corporations now have the rights of a living being and no soul to go with it, and since they seek power and possessions, I leave it to you to see it for what it is. It was all prophesied. It's no accident, and neither is celebrating what we old timers called immoral.

Destroy college football and you destroy what brings 10's of thousands together every Saturday in the Fall just as they are with animus destroying worship.

Well said JR—college football unites. It doesn’t matter your creed, color, nation of origin, or how much money your parents made; we can all be fans of ———State or the University of ———. The wicked forces that are trying to destroy this country can’t have that.

(07-23-2021 09:17 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  They are slowly killing the sport. Fewer kids are playing football. In 40-50 years soccer will be bigger.

Maybe so, and it is a good sport, but soccer is just as susceptible to being driven by money to the detriment of fans. Any sport that can make money as a spectator sport can be driven by money.

What soccer and basketball have going for them is that the cost of entry for kids and their families is lower (compared to baseball, football, or ice hockey) because less equipment is required. We've never gotten to the point where the number of kids playing baseball or football has dried up, but maybe the powers (pro leagues and equipment companies) in each sport should do more to lower the costs for kids.

(07-23-2021 10:47 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(07-23-2021 09:17 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  They are slowly killing the sport. Fewer kids are playing football. In 40-50 years soccer will be bigger.

Maybe so, and it is a good sport, but soccer is just as susceptible to being driven by money to the detriment of fans. Any sport that can make money as a spectator sport can be driven by money. ...

We just recently saw an attempted cross-national European soccer superleague attempt to be set up, and only fall apart because word leaked out too soon and supporters clubs among many clubs who had signed on as charter members were able to organize against it. Conveniently it was a time when the UK government wanted distraction from what it was doing, so they were happy to bluster against it.

And the football factory scandals of the 50s are now 60-70 years ago, so it's not like any of our memories extend back to some halcyon age when money did not corrupt college football. Indeed, the SMU death penalty is one part of the story of what drove Texas toward dissolving the SWC in the first place.

One thing to note. There are only about 20 schools that have dominated the top of college football over the last 50 or so years since the Vietnam War and baby boom changed colleges.

Of those 20 schools, only Oregon doesn't have an AP MNC. They have 51 of the 53 titles since 1968 (Pitt and BYU are the exceptions). They have 46 of the 53 #2 finishes in the AP. They have 48 of the 53 #3 finishes. Overall they have 224 of the 265 top 5 finishes. Each of those schools has at least 5 top 5 and 2 top 3 finishes. Other than those, only Pitt and TCU has more than one top 3 finish (both with 2). Only Pitt (4) and Arizona St. (3) have more than 2 top 5 finishes.

Think of that. Only 14 times in the last 53 years has anyone but those 20 schools finished in the top 3.

Position 1 2 3 4 5 places
OSU 3 5 3 7 5 23
OU 4 2 9 1 5 21
AL 9 3 1 3 3 19
FSU 3 2 5 4 2 16
USC 3 5 4 3 0 15
PSU 2 3 4 1 3 13
Miami 5 4 2 0 1 12
NE 4 2 3 2 1 12
ND 3 3 0 2 4 12
TX 2 2 3 2 3 12
FL 3 1 3 1 3 11
UM 1 1 2 2 3 9
GA 1 2 1 3 1 8
Clem 3 2 1 1 0 7
LSU 2 2 1 0 1 6
TN 1 0 1 3 1 6
AU 1 2 1 1 1 6
OR 0 3 1 1 1 6
CO 1 0 2 1 1 5
WA 0 2 1 1 1 5

These are the 20 schools and the number of times they have finished 1-2-3-4 and 5

(07-22-2021 06:31 PM)ClairtonPanther Wrote:  It means CFB as we know it is dead. There will only be 30ish schools between the SEC and B1G that truly matter.

No. For the next decade or two, the SEC and BIG will get the most viewers and earn the most revenue. But the elite football programs outside the two top conferences will still be able to compete nationally. Clemson, FSU, Miami, ND, USC, Oregon, etc. can still thrive. IMO, it will be the lower resource programs (e.g., Wake, BC, WSU, Oregon State), or the programs that don’t fully invest in football (e.g., Duke, Vandy, Rutgers), that will be forced to enhance their programs or leave high-level college football. The ACC and PAC will just have more casualties than the SEC and BIG.

(07-21-2021 07:56 PM)JRsec Wrote:  4. The only issue will be are you all in on pay for play and NIL and scholarships for all roster athletes or are you out?

Trying to make sure I understand what you are saying here. By "scholarships for all roster athletes" do you mean everybody in uniform gets a full scholarship - no partial scholarships? And would the number of players on the roster for each sport be defined/limited (as in no walk ons)? I'm guessing that might lead to fewer men's team sports, since every school involved would play football and it would be harder to comply with Title IX.

Do you assume that pay for play means every athlete in every sport gets paid more or less the same? That is, if football players get paid $20K above FCOA that every member of the women's bowling team has to get the same? Or can PFP be limited to revenue sports, or at least prorated based on revenues. I've never heard anybody suggest that golfers or tennis players or field hockey players are being exploited by their schools or the NCAA. Only football and men's basketball players.

For as long as I've been around there have always been disparities in athletes' compensation (to the extent that we define compensation to include scholarships). Just the fact that some sports are head count sports while others allow partial scholarships is an example of that. That has been accepted in the same way that we accept that not all employees are paid the same in any institution. That has been accepted by Title IX with regard to compliance. Why should college sports be an exception?