RE: Is this a realistic chain reaction?
The Big Ten hasn't added a member who wasn't an AAU member at the time since they added Michigan State back in 1950 (I had said never but was corrected). Of course they've only added four universities since then but I'd imagine they do take that more seriously these days. AAU schools are going to get top billing. The two schools if I were in charge of the Big Ten that I would consider that would be Notre Dame (certainly on par with the AAU schools academically) and Oklahoma and only if Texas is part of the expansion. If the Big Ten goes for ACC schools, Virginia and North Carolina would be the first targets with Duke and Georgia Tech next (Duke brings great academics, a partner with UNC, and at least while Coach K is coaching great men's basketball and Georgia Tech, while geographically distant, gives the Big Ten Atlanta along with more great academics). I'd next want Florida State to get into Florida although they're not AAU and unless some of the other ACC schools say no or we can dump some of our western crap our conference will get too big. I'd like Pittsburgh to get Pittsburgh and Penn State playing although they'd be pretty far down on my expansion list.
1. Notre Dame
2. Texas
3. North Carolina (Virginia's closer but I'm more of a North Carolina fan)
4. Virginia
I'd probably rather have Duke, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Pitt, Syracuse, UConn, and Temple than Oklahoma or Kansas but am willing to take either of them to get Texas. I'm not willing to take Texas Tech or any other Texas school (unless Texas A&M is willing to leave the SEC). Personally I'd rather have UNC than Texas but financially I'm not stupid of course I'd take Texas.
I wouldn't say Virginia Tech is a never for the Big Ten for me but they'd be pretty far down. West Virginia for me would be a never. I would say everyone else in the Big 12 other than Texas, Oklahoma, or Kansas is a never for me. I would make a run for Texas when the Big 12's media rights expire (2025) and if I can get them with either Oklahoma or Kansas I'd sign them up and likely I'd leave the ACC alone when their media rights expire (2037). If Texas won't come, then I make a run for the ACC in 2037. Notre Dame would be the first target, followed by North Carolina, then Virginia, etc. I'd be willing to go for four if necessary so ND, UNC, UVa, Duke or GaT or if ND doesn't want in UNC, UVa, Duke, GaT.
Now the question then could be if North Carolina/Duke are courted by both the Big Ten and the SEC come 2037? I think most of the AAU schools would academically prefer the Big Ten but if the SEC's media deals are worth a lot more than the Big Ten's by then (and both are more than the ACC's), North Carolina and Duke won't be stupid, they'll go to the SEC. I assume if it's close, the Big Ten will have the edge, leaving the SEC with the second choice schools in Virginia and North Carolina (Virginia Tech, NC State). This is of course assuming the SEC doesn't get Texas/Oklahoma either, if they do they might not want to go for the Triangle schools either. I would say after Texas/Oklahoma and Notre Dame that North Carolina and Virginia are the next big battleground between the SEC and Big Ten.
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