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It's been too long since I plotted world domination.
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AllTideUp Offline
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Post: #1
It's been too long since I plotted world domination.
Life is upside down, huh?

We're working from home, we're shopping at a distance, and the IRS is paying us on April 15th! What a world!

So what better time to delve into the finer points of madness? I've been reviewing some old threads and trying to look at how some of the economics might affect future decisions.

This past week, we had the G5 leagues requesting relief from the NCAA in the form of temporarily suspending qualifications for membership in D1. In other words, they don't want the financial upheaval to impact their status.

A handful of schools are already cutting some of their minor sports and that may have happened anyway, but the timing does seem odd. It's hard to fathom that financial decisions aren't being made, at the very least, in the aftermath of losing so much revenue from a cancelled NCAA Tournament.

Consider this aspect:

Pete Thamel talks about the financial motivation to expand the CFP

There's some interesting points and quotes in that article so I recommend reading the whole thing, but the gist is that there may be a long term financial ding that these schools suffer in the wake of the pandemic. Such a set of circumstances might lead schools to find easier ways to make that cash up and an easy way could be expanding the CFP.

There also appears to be a growing realization that the schools have farmed out some of their best products to middle-men...the bowl games. Why do that? Especially in a time when circling the wagons may be necessary?

Also found this article a little while ago, it looks like a local paper in VA talking about James Madison and Old Dominion. The point of the article is to underscore a potential movement towards more regional conferences. Apparently, there have been some conversations on that.

Considering the pressure that may exist at some of the G5 and FCS schools, reorganizing into more regional entities may prove fruitful. They want to reduce expenses and it doesn't make as much sense for schools on the same level to be stretched across multiple states when comparable programs lay a couple hundred miles away. Some of the talk centers around only doing that for the minor sports so excluding football and basketball, but the point is also made that football rivalries and travel for fans may play a role in the final outlook.

Now, this sort of dynamic is more relevant to programs on the fringe. The finances of the G5 and FCS are less flexible as we pointed out earlier with their petition to the NCAA.

Nonetheless, for programs looking to save a few bucks here and there, could this sort of thinking creep into the minds of Power 5 leaders?

Finally, I was listening to some local radio today and some of the hosts seem to think that the SEC, for example, might play their conference schedule this season and nothing more. That obviously hurts the G5s the most, but it would impact all non-conference games. It didn't sound like they had any inside info or anything, they were just pitching a notion that would make playing a football season more feasible if people are worried about getting together.

Reduce the number of games? Play more regionally as a whole? Some might like that better.

Now personally, I think the football season will more or less look normal. There are already signs from Federal, State(across the country), and local leaders that they want to open the economy within the next few weeks. That would come well before players have to report for Fall camp or students were on campus.

I think college leaders are hesitant to make any commitments today because they don't really have the freedom to buck State and Federal authorities anyway. They'll wait for the politicians to call the shots and go from there. Just my view.

Anyway, as to how all this might affect the long term outlook, I do think there could be some interesting changes to how football...the primary revenue driver...is played.

For one, an expanded CFP and a de-emphasis on the exhibition oriented bowl season would obviously produce more opportunities for teams to compete in relevant games. That means conferences could have greater freedom to be more regional, but it also means greater numbers in membership is not an impediment to qualifying. More teams equals more wildcards one way or the other.

At this point, I foresee TV revenue becoming even more important than it already is, if you can imagine. For one, some fans will always be a little skittish and reduce the number of times they attend a game in person. Tickets sales reduction could be a long term trend in other words. Many fans will rely evermore on TV networks to bring them the teams they follow which incidentally drives up the value of TV broadcasts.

Additionally, if it's deemed that CFP money is more valuable for the sake of stability then perhaps steps are actually taken to reduce the number of regular season games. Less ticket demand might make these moves much more reasonable and it would also create some scarcity. If there are 10 regular season games instead of 12 then your opportunities are reduced for you whether you asked for it or not, but it also provides an opportunity to increase ticket prices and take advantage of premium seating. If social distancing in some form or fashion becomes a way of life then fewer people will want to be crammed into a stadium anyway. They'll watch at home, pay for seats that allow them to distance themselves a bit more, or they just won't attend as often.

Obviously, that social dynamic won't take effect with everyone and certainly not permanently, but either way, TV becomes more valuable as a means to show the product. If you're relying on TV then you need to fill TV's needs. Obviously, there aren't going to be a ton of people tuning in for Alabama/Western Carolina or Auburn/Samford. This type of environment would quicken the pace with which we run headlong into a schedule where Power schools only play Power schools...with occasional exceptions perhaps, but you get the point.

Now with respect the regional interpretation of conferences, does that become more or less likely?

I'm not sure. I mean, you can still reduce costs by placing the schools from multiple regions under one administrative roof. Just because everyone is in the same conference doesn't mean they have to play all the time. You can still have mostly regional schedules, and you can still host a conference championship game that pits schools against each other who otherwise might not play very often.

You can still increase leverage with media companies too if there's more cooperation. If the leagues regressed back to more regional entities then the TV networks actually regain some leverage. Since TV revenue could be a little more stable than ticket sales in this future then perhaps larger leagues are still best especially considering no reduction in the opportunity to qualify for the CFP.

Now here comes the world domination part, if we enter this future then here's my proposal for what the SEC should do...

1. Large is good.
2. Less room on the schedule for non-conference games.
3. Maintain regionalism to a reasonable degree.
4. Lean towards quality content because TV becomes more important.

With that in mind, I don't mind absorbing regions rather than focusing on the best products.

I would take Texas, Texas Tech, TCU, and Baylor.

Beyond that, I would leave room to acquire the schools in the East that complete the footprint. Florida State, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and not sure who the others might be.

In other words, I wouldn't worry so much about tapping new regions even though I've been a proponent of that in the past. I would think in terms of completely controlling the ones we're already in.
04-16-2020 02:05 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #2
RE: It's been too long since I plotted world domination.
Those are worthy thoughts. I would just discount Thamel and focus on the regionality potential, but take a deeper look into the economics underpinning what we are about to go through. Some points to consider.

1. Beat writers should shut up. Thamel like most of them are clueless when it comes to economics and economic motivations. There will be no expansion of the CFP if you can't have a normal season. The underlying obstacles are the same and the damn travel is greater. And just who would be going to these games? That alone kills the motivation for bowls, let alone the middle man aspect is no longer even a part of them. The bowls for the most part are owned by ESPN and the payments set.

2. The victims of no season (which is the likeliest outcome) are going to be those schools most heavily subsidized which is why the AAC is feeling the pinch dramatically. South Florida is subsidized to the tune of 42% of its athletic budget. Florida by contrast is subsidized about 4%.

So those leaching from student fees or borrowing to play from the taxpayers of their states may evaporate more quickly than they appeared.

3. The second grouping that could suffer the annihilation of athletics at their schools are small privates some of which are in the P5. How well do Wake Forest and Boston College survive this? It will depend on how large their athletic endowments are. Ironically the only school to suffer the Death Penalty has an athletic endowment well over 1 Billion dollars and could spring back to life at a time when other small privates are drying up and dying out of athletics and while the nation faces a different kind of death penalty. S.M.U. could benefit from the current crisis.

4. Large publics (think P5 now) without large athletic endowments might start to falter if the virus can be cured or arrested within 2 years of suspended play.

So yes there are a lot of changes that could be taking place.

5. I believe the core Big 10 and SEC schools (pretty well endowed athletically) will be fine. This happened in WWII you know there are those who know how to budget around it. But the other whammy that will hit all of college athletics that nobody is talking about is the talent pool will have also diminished at the High School level with no play.

What happens if this drags out 3 years? Lousy play happens when incoming athletes have had 3 years of no competition, no training, no fundamental development, and no discipline. That means a totally crappy product for at least 2 years before you start to build the talent level back up and that too could impact the sport.

6. As to regional play, it always makes good sense and sound business to play regionally. But face it nobody is clamoring for UNA to play UA or for Troy to play Auburn. Our original 10 SEC foes are going to hang tough. I suspect Arkansas, Missouri and A&M will as well. South Carolina is not at issue for travel problems. But it would be all the more reason to look again to Clemson, Florida State and Georgia Tech and perhaps Louisville, or into adding enough schools West of Mississippi to make that side viable for regional play within division.

7. It's the first part of the 3 part Chinese Curse:
a. May you live in interesting times.
b. May those in Authority take notice of you.
c. May all the desires of your heart come true.

Interesting times are never normal and always have upheaval. Check.
When those in authority take notice of you it is never good because when they are settled they aren't worried about what you are doing or not doing and you remain free to determine the course of your life.
And we are almost always destroyed by our desires instead of fulfilled by them. But at least right now in spite of it being interesting times, and in spite of government beginning to notice us more, at least there aren't many getting their desires met and exceeded.

There's a silver lining somewhere in this dark cloud.
(This post was last modified: 04-16-2020 09:04 AM by JRsec.)
04-16-2020 08:32 AM
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Soobahk40050 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: It's been too long since I plotted world domination.
I'll bite, mostly because I need another procrastination tool.

Your argument establishes four main goals of expansion:

1. Large is good.
2. Less room on the schedule for non-conference games.
3. Maintain regionalism to a reasonable degree.
4. Lean towards quality content because TV becomes more important.

Large: 16 is not a limit.
Regionalism: Additional school must be within 420 miles of at least two current schools (making it a 6 hour drive at 70 miles an hour).
Quality: Subjectively identified.

Texas is disqualified: LSU is at 434 miles away, Arkansas is at 523, so the only one close enough is A&M at 104.

However, OK is in - it is 240 miles to Arkansas and 356 to A&M.
So is Kansas - Missouri is 167 miles away and Arkansas is 263.

OK St. could come - Missouri is 413, and Arkansas is 180.

Most of the Eastern schools easily fit the geographic limits, with the exception of Miami.

I'm considering Clemson, GT, FSU, VT, UNC, and NC St. (Duke and Wake Forest as privates may struggle in this scenario)


East: Virginia Tech, NC State, South Carolina, Clemson, FSU, Florida, Georgia
West: A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Kansas, Missouri, OK, OK St.
Central: Alabama, Auburn, Miss, Miss. St., TN, Vandy, KY

Schedule: Play the teams in your division (6); play half of one other division (rotate every four years), play three more conference games as follows:

-You play half of the third division as follows:
- Permanent rivals (Georgia-Auburn) are given preference if they are not already scheduled to play.
- After accounting for permanent rivals, you play the team that finished in the same place in the standings as you (1st vs. 1st, etc. or next highest ranked team)
- You play two other teams from the third division on a rotating basis. In situations where the team is pulled from the rotation for the above matchup, the "next team up" is selected.
04-16-2020 01:17 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #4
RE: It's been too long since I plotted world domination.
(04-16-2020 01:17 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  I'll bite, mostly because I need another procrastination tool.

Your argument establishes four main goals of expansion:

1. Large is good.
2. Less room on the schedule for non-conference games.
3. Maintain regionalism to a reasonable degree.
4. Lean towards quality content because TV becomes more important.

Large: 16 is not a limit.
Regionalism: Additional school must be within 420 miles of at least two current schools (making it a 6 hour drive at 70 miles an hour).
Quality: Subjectively identified.

Texas is disqualified: LSU is at 434 miles away, Arkansas is at 523, so the only one close enough is A&M at 104.

However, OK is in - it is 240 miles to Arkansas and 356 to A&M.
So is Kansas - Missouri is 167 miles away and Arkansas is 263.

OK St. could come - Missouri is 413, and Arkansas is 180.

Most of the Eastern schools easily fit the geographic limits, with the exception of Miami.

I'm considering Clemson, GT, FSU, VT, UNC, and NC St. (Duke and Wake Forest as privates may struggle in this scenario)


East: Virginia Tech, NC State, South Carolina, Clemson, FSU, Florida, Georgia
West: A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Kansas, Missouri, OK, OK St.
Central: Alabama, Auburn, Miss, Miss. St., TN, Vandy, KY

Schedule: Play the teams in your division (6); play half of one other division (rotate every four years), play three more conference games as follows:

-You play half of the third division as follows:
- Permanent rivals (Georgia-Auburn) are given preference if they are not already scheduled to play.
- After accounting for permanent rivals, you play the team that finished in the same place in the standings as you (1st vs. 1st, etc. or next highest ranked team)
- You play two other teams from the third division on a rotating basis. In situations where the team is pulled from the rotation for the above matchup, the "next team up" is selected.

Let's try regional at least making it essential for divisions with no privates:

SEC:
Auburn, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina
Alabama, Kentucky, Louisville, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee
Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Va Tech, West Virginia
Arkansas, L.S.U., Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas A&M

Big 10:
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Wasington
Colorado, Iowa State, Kanas, Missouri, Nebraska, Utah
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


Privates:
Boston College, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse
Duke, Miami, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest
Baylor, Brigham Young, T.C.U., Tulane
Air Force, Army, Navy, Northwestern

Others:
Boise State, Oregon State, Washington State, Wyoming
Arizona, Arizona State, Fresno State, San Diego State
Colorado State, Kansas State, New Mexico, Texas Tech
Central Florida, Cincinnati, Houston, South Florida

That's 2 large conferences, a conference of Privates, and a conference of the rest.
,
04-16-2020 02:07 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #5
It's been too long since I plotted world domination.
The ACC in the layers it could plausibly peel away in in relevance to SEC geography.

1) GT, Clemson, FSU. You add all 3 and it's pretty clean cut.

2) If the basketball schools panic: Louisville, maybe VT OR UNC, NCST, UVA, VT as one unit at a minimum. Maybe Duke too, they are only surpassed by Stanford in structural wealth as a private. Wake may be SOL.

If the basketball schools do not panic: Louisville, VT ... choose any combination or number. I am tempted to add NCST but I don't know if they can stop UNC political manuveuring.

It's easy to balance in East vs West:
Auburn to East.
Missouri to West.

Pair with GT, Clemson, FSU: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas.

Then: OKST, TTU, TCU, Baylor ... they're all in the same ballpark it probably depends more on politics (TX, OU) than anything else.

+GT,CU,FSU,UofL,VT
+KU,OU,TX,TTU,OKST

Rivalry Week:
KU-Mizzou
OU-OKST
TX-TAMU
LSU-ARK
MISS-MSST
BAMA-AU
UGAG-GT
CLEM-USC
UF-FSU
VT-TN
UK-UofL

You'd be wise to spread that inventory over two weeks. All of it is top shelf.
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2020 02:21 AM by georgia_tech_swagger.)
04-17-2020 02:14 AM
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