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(04-13-2020 09:23 AM)ladeda Wrote:  5 days ago, Dr Acton said the peak would be 1600 cases per day in Ohio. So far, the daily peak was 427 cases and that was over a week ago. New cases have been on a slight decline the past 9 days-- yet they are telling us that new cases will quadruple by the end of April. wth? There is nothing in the data that suggests cases will quadruple, but hey-- models.

All I know is the so called experts really don't have much expertise. So will we have a season? I think we will have a start to the season. My fear is that if there is a seasonal outbreak in say November-- that they could panic and do the forced shutdown thing all over again.


1-Apr 348
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4-Apr 427
5-Apr 304
6-Apr 407
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12-Apr 354

Models depend upon assumptions. Assumptions are based on past events with modification from new data modifying assumptions.

To date seems like a lot of SWAG.

With the cases and deaths falling under the model estimates how much is the mitigation and how much is the fault of a bad model? No way to know.

Article stating covid-19 financial fallout may lead to college football playoff expansion

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-the-fiscal-...51276.html

(04-13-2020 12:15 PM)icecat21 Wrote:  Article stating covid-19 financial fallout may lead to college football playoff expansion

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-the-fiscal-...51276.html

I wonder if they could play basketball in the early fall and have a christmas madness/early july madness and start college football in the spring of 21? Bowl games would be played in Late April/Early May.

(04-13-2020 12:15 PM)icecat21 Wrote:  Article stating covid-19 financial fallout may lead to college football playoff expansion

https://sports.yahoo.com/why-the-fiscal-...51276.html

Great article; thanks for posting.

The history of college sports conferences suggests the only certainty is uncertainty. This is a plausible scenario. To me, so is the top 80-90 football playing schools breaking off from the rest of Division 1. What ultimately destroyed the Big East was the divided interests of these two camps. It will eventually play out nationally, dividing football from basketball-only universities.

In terms of funding and operating college athletics with and without football, it's really apples and oranges.

(04-13-2020 09:23 AM)ladeda Wrote:  5 days ago, [b]Dr Acton said the peak would be 1600 cases per day in Ohio. So far, the daily peak was 427 cases and that was over a week ago. [/b]New cases have been on a slight decline the past 9 days-- yet they are telling us that new cases will quadruple by the end of April. wth? There is nothing in the data that suggests cases will quadruple, but hey-- models.

All I know is the so called experts really don't have much expertise. So will we have a season? I think we will have a start to the season. My fear is that if there is a seasonal outbreak in say November-- that they could panic and do the forced shutdown thing all over again.


1-Apr 348
2-Apr 355
3-Apr 410
4-Apr 427
5-Apr 304
6-Apr 407
7-Apr 332
8-Apr 366
9-Apr 364
10-Apr 351
11-Apr 387
12-Apr 354

She also said that there were 100,000 in Ohio that were already infected back in early March too.

She hasn't been right on too much that I've seen. Same thing with the all knowing Dr. Fauci.

Yet here we all sit. Just waiting for the next round of gloom and doom from the "experts" that won't even come close to being true.

How many people have it but havent been tested because of lack of resources or the "wrong" symptoms are showing up and they wont test them?
How many people have it but arent showing any symptoms and dont know they have it like Gobert?

(04-13-2020 02:04 PM)coachpipe Wrote:  How many people have it but havent been tested because of lack of resources or the "wrong" symptoms are showing up and they wont test them?
How many people have it but arent showing any symptoms and dont know they have it like Gobert?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it still make a sound?

No doubt on the underestimation of cases. Who knows how many or when it even began? The bigger problem is knowing when and how to oil the gears and begin revving the motor of society again.

Who is gonna have big enough cajones to pull the switch?

(04-13-2020 02:14 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  

(04-13-2020 02:04 PM)coachpipe Wrote:  How many people have it but havent been tested because of lack of resources or the "wrong" symptoms are showing up and they wont test them?
How many people have it but arent showing any symptoms and dont know they have it like Gobert?

If a tree falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it still make a sound?

No doubt on the underestimation of cases. Who knows how many or when it even began? The bigger problem is knowing when and how to oil the gears and begin revving the motor of society again.

Who is gonna have big enough cajones to pull the switch?

Texas. They are pulling their stay at home orders some time this week

Texas currently has one of the lowest deaths per million people rates in the country. make sense they would be one of the first state to start opening up.

Florida Surgeon General said they will be on stay at home orders until a vaccine comes out. So that means no football in Florida.

Edit. it was social distancing orders, not stay at home orders. But i think the end result is the same. No football in florida

(04-13-2020 03:33 PM)coachpipe Wrote:  Florida Surgeon General said they will be on stay at home orders until a vaccine comes out. So that means no football in Florida.

Yikes, even the most aggressive timetables put that into early Winter.

(04-13-2020 03:36 PM)BearcatMan Wrote:  

(04-13-2020 03:33 PM)coachpipe Wrote:  Florida Surgeon General said they will be on stay at home orders until a vaccine comes out. So that means no football in Florida.

Yikes, even the most aggressive timetables put that into early Winter.

What was that sustained wind sound? I think I just heard the collective sigh of all the retirement population with compromised immune systems down there.

UC has put all summer classes online..that's all I have.

I guess here is as good a place as any....

All the scare tactics saying it kills young people....
average age of covid death in ohio: 79
75% of covid deaths in ohio are people over 70 years old
93% are over 50

Also, the reports that the USA has people dying at a greater rate than the rest of the world combined....see the cumulative deaths over time, normalized by population....see attachment below. We have a better rate than many of the highly populated European countries.

But for all the scare tactics, I think the news is just doing a horrible job giving facts, just spewing fear. That being said, I think the lockdown was necessary to prevent hospital overcrowding. We do need to get back to business as usual, but very slowly and monitor closely. Eventually we're going to be worse off by staying closed...how many people will die of starvation, abuse, substance abuse, suicide, illness, exposure, etc... if the economy completely collapses?

Again, I think that covid is a completely different animal than a normal cold/flu, but we have to be reasonable in our efforts and make decisions off of facts, not fear.

(04-13-2020 03:25 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Texas currently has one of the lowest deaths per million people rates in the country. make sense they would be one of the first state to start opening up.

Kudos for them. Let’s watch closely and see if they get the secondary “surge” that has been threatened.

(04-13-2020 03:25 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Texas currently has one of the lowest deaths per million people rates in the country. make sense they would be one of the first state to start opening up.

The most populous counties of Texas have been under a Stay at home order since mid March, which includes the Metro Areas of Houston, Dallas-Ft Worth, San Antonio, and Austin. Those 4 metro areas represent around 60% of the population of Texas. Austin cancelled South By Southwest and that saved countless lives. 85% of Texans are currently under Stay at Home Orders.

(04-13-2020 04:46 PM)the_dude Wrote:  I guess here is as good a place as any....

All the scare tactics saying it kills young people....
average age of covid death in ohio: 79
75% of covid deaths in ohio are people over 70 years old
93% are over 50

Also, the reports that the USA has people dying at a greater rate than the rest of the world combined....see the cumulative deaths over time, normalized by population....see attachment below. We have a better rate than many of the highly populated European countries.

But for all the scare tactics, I think the news is just doing a horrible job giving facts, just spewing fear. That being said, I think the lockdown was necessary to prevent hospital overcrowding. We do need to get back to business as usual, but very slowly and monitor closely. Eventually we're going to be worse off by staying closed...how many people will die of starvation, abuse, substance abuse, suicide, illness, exposure, etc... if the economy completely collapses?

Again, I think that covid is a completely different animal than a normal cold/flu, but we have to be reasonable in our efforts and make decisions off of facts, not fear.

All facts that I've been trying to get across since this fluster cluck started.

I'm just wondering where the righteous indignation crowd is to condemn this guy for his ignorance and stupidity.

The only issue I might raise with you is the necessity of the lock down to prevent overcrowding of hospitals. Perhaps if the figures quoted by the head of the health dept were actually true, you might be right.

However, you can't credit the action of the government for preventing the outbreak from being bigger because it was never as bad as they said.

And I'll do you one better...

They're now counting covid19 deaths as they used to do for smokers.

To illustrate this, I'll use my own grandfather as the example. The old guy used to smoke like a freight train. Lived to be 89 years old. When he finally went (because he was as old as the hills), what did they list as cause of death...?

That's right. Smoking.

(04-13-2020 08:38 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(04-13-2020 04:46 PM)the_dude Wrote:  I guess here is as good a place as any....

All the scare tactics saying it kills young people....
average age of covid death in ohio: 79
75% of covid deaths in ohio are people over 70 years old
93% are over 50

Also, the reports that the USA has people dying at a greater rate than the rest of the world combined....see the cumulative deaths over time, normalized by population....see attachment below. We have a better rate than many of the highly populated European countries.

But for all the scare tactics, I think the news is just doing a horrible job giving facts, just spewing fear. That being said, I think the lockdown was necessary to prevent hospital overcrowding. We do need to get back to business as usual, but very slowly and monitor closely. Eventually we're going to be worse off by staying closed...how many people will die of starvation, abuse, substance abuse, suicide, illness, exposure, etc... if the economy completely collapses?

Again, I think that covid is a completely different animal than a normal cold/flu, but we have to be reasonable in our efforts and make decisions off of facts, not fear.

All facts that I've been trying to get across since this fluster cluck started.

I'm just wondering where the righteous indignation crowd is to condemn this guy for his ignorance and stupidity.

The only issue I might raise with you is the necessity of the lock down to prevent overcrowding of hospitals. Perhaps if the figures quoted by the head of the health dept were actually true, you might be right.

However, you can't credit the action of the government for preventing the outbreak from being bigger because it was never as bad as they said.

And I'll do you one better...

They're now counting covid19 deaths as they used to do for smokers.

To illustrate this, I'll use my own grandfather as the example. The old guy used to smoke like a freight train. Lived to be 89 years old. When he finally went (because he was as old as the hills), what did they list as cause of death...?

That's right. Smoking.

When did "they" start counting covid19 deaths as they used to do for smokers? And why did "they" do it?

(04-13-2020 08:48 PM)The Big O Wrote:  

(04-13-2020 08:38 PM)Bear Catlett Wrote:  

(04-13-2020 04:46 PM)the_dude Wrote:  I guess here is as good a place as any....

All the scare tactics saying it kills young people....
average age of covid death in ohio: 79
75% of covid deaths in ohio are people over 70 years old
93% are over 50

Also, the reports that the USA has people dying at a greater rate than the rest of the world combined....see the cumulative deaths over time, normalized by population....see attachment below. We have a better rate than many of the highly populated European countries.

But for all the scare tactics, I think the news is just doing a horrible job giving facts, just spewing fear. That being said, I think the lockdown was necessary to prevent hospital overcrowding. We do need to get back to business as usual, but very slowly and monitor closely. Eventually we're going to be worse off by staying closed...how many people will die of starvation, abuse, substance abuse, suicide, illness, exposure, etc... if the economy completely collapses?

Again, I think that covid is a completely different animal than a normal cold/flu, but we have to be reasonable in our efforts and make decisions off of facts, not fear.

All facts that I've been trying to get across since this fluster cluck started.

I'm just wondering where the righteous indignation crowd is to condemn this guy for his ignorance and stupidity.

The only issue I might raise with you is the necessity of the lock down to prevent overcrowding of hospitals. Perhaps if the figures quoted by the head of the health dept were actually true, you might be right.

However, you can't credit the action of the government for preventing the outbreak from being bigger because it was never as bad as they said.

And I'll do you one better...

They're now counting covid19 deaths as they used to do for smokers.

To illustrate this, I'll use my own grandfather as the example. The old guy used to smoke like a freight train. Lived to be 89 years old. When he finally went (because he was as old as the hills), what did they list as cause of death...?

That's right. Smoking.

When did "they" start counting covid19 deaths as they used to do for smokers? And why did "they" do it?

I just love my little pack of fans that follow me around trying to discredit anything I say. Like the guy that asked me what the definition of the flu was last week, like its up to me to define it.

Anyway...

"They" are health care employees in charge of records.

"They" are doing it because they are told to do so. Have you ever heard that people with "underlying conditions" are especially prone to covid? So when one of these people with said "underlying conditions" goes, where they started listing "underlying condition" they are now listing covid.

Why? Don't ask me. Maybe someone in charge that's been talking out their a$$ about how bad the outbreak is needs some figures to back it up.

(04-13-2020 05:31 PM)Bearcatbdub Wrote:  

(04-13-2020 03:25 PM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  Texas currently has one of the lowest deaths per million people rates in the country. make sense they would be one of the first state to start opening up.

Kudos for them. Let’s watch closely and see if they get the secondary “surge” that has been threatened.

Indeed. We've been shelter-in-place in every major city for the past 3 weeks. Austin just got extended until mid-May. The reason the deaths are so low is because the major cities of Texas were cautious and tried to prevent mass death.

I hope everyone (including Texas) is as cautious with their lifting of restrictions as we have been with our placing of them.