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Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #2541
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(10-19-2020 08:49 AM)Cataclysmo Wrote:  
(10-19-2020 06:12 AM)Z-Fly Wrote:  I guess I don't understand what you are getting at? Are you saying their numbers are wrong or skewed?

I'm saying he's misrepresenting the numbers. The CDC and other research orgs conduct a bunch of studies on excess mortality and compare it to their expected death counts for 2020. I'm not sure how our total deaths compare to past years, but this graph is straight from the CDC as well:

The orange line indicates the number of deaths they would expect in a "normal" 2020, the bars represent excess deaths.

[Image: XHEuA0x.png]

Definition of excess deaths is problematic.
Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between the observed numbers of deaths in specific time periods and expected numbers of deaths in the same time periods. This visualization provides weekly estimates of excess deaths by the jurisdiction in which the death occurred. Weekly counts of deaths are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

What does that mean? From the outset a CV19 death was if you die and have CV19 that is CV19 death. That is loco.
 
10-19-2020 12:10 PM
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Helicopter Offline
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Post: #2542
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(10-18-2020 11:03 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Just parking this here...parse and process as you wish in the quiets of your individual studies.

[Image: EknS45KXgAE2uN3?format=jpg&name=small]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm03-nutkick03-nutkick

The problem is mortality statistics are seasonal not linear. If you carry the current pace through flu season you get an underestimate of deaths.

Regardless of your perspective on the scale of COVID's impact on health there will be higher mortality this year. The more difficult, nuanced discussion is the estimation anywhere from 30-40% of those excess mortality deaths is likely directly attributable to our response to COVID. Suicides, overdoses, failure to treat chronic conditions like diabetes, etc.
 
10-19-2020 12:53 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #2543
Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
30-40%?

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 
10-19-2020 01:15 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #2544
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
(10-19-2020 12:53 PM)Helicopter Wrote:  
(10-18-2020 11:03 AM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Just parking this here...parse and process as you wish in the quiets of your individual studies.

[Image: EknS45KXgAE2uN3?format=jpg&name=small]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm03-nutkick03-nutkick

The problem is mortality statistics are seasonal not linear. If you carry the current pace through flu season you get an underestimate of deaths.

Regardless of your perspective on the scale of COVID's impact on health there will be higher mortality this year. The more difficult, nuanced discussion is the estimation anywhere from 30-40% of those excess mortality deaths is likely directly attributable to our response to COVID. Suicides, overdoses, failure to treat chronic conditions like diabetes, etc.

The problem is also that the post is not using actual data.

I think the problem is that the tweeter was not including January in his numbers.

The number of deaths that have been reported to CDC from weeks ending 2/1/2020 to 10/17/2020 is 2,246,171 as of this morning. However, there is a delay in reporting. A lot of deaths are not reported to CDC for several weeks. The number of deaths from from weeks ending Feb 1st - Sept 26th is 2,160,160. That's 35 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

2,160,160/35 = 61,718 per week
61718*52 = 3,209,380 total deaths in 2020.

That's about 12% higher than 2019.
 
10-19-2020 01:54 PM
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Cataclysmo Offline
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Post: #2545
Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
Yes, the CDC is also traditionally slow at aggregating their mortality reports. Their covid death tolls tend to lag behind other sites like Covid tracking project and Hopkins.

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10-19-2020 02:12 PM
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glacier_dropsy Offline
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Post: #2546
RE: Do you think there will be a 2020 college FB season?
You stat studs dont seem to have spent much time in the isolation wings lately
 
10-19-2020 10:40 PM
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