(03-04-2020 12:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote: I'd view dissolution into the B1G/SEC through an "onion" model. You have to kinda work through one layer at a time to get the next layer to make sense.
GT, CU, FSU | VT, Miami, UofL | Duke, UNC, NCST, UVA, WF | BC, Cuse, Pitt
From the left we are grouped into chunks based upon how readily and nicely they would plug into the SEC as well as their willingness to split off. From the right we are grouped into chunks the same way but for the B1G. I don't think there's much drama in best fitting first group of three for either side. My argument after the first layer of the onion is without GT, CU, FSU that VT, Miami, and Louisville (the only football firsts left) would be hat in hand at the door waiting to leave to greener football pastures. Both sides kinda hit an impasse on Tobacco Road. That group of 5 is pretty solid. Even peeling off Wake to leave them behind would be harder than you might think. I just don't know if the SEC/B1G are willing to swallow that many teams or if that group of 5 teams would finally split up and part ways.
Then the obvious strategy between the SEC and Big 10 where the ACC is concerned is for the SEC to move first. Clemson and Florida State alone to the SEC would naturally peak the interest of Virginia Tech and even if it didn't, the TV cash for athletics will have been gutted and at a time when the revenue gap is already 30 million.
Where I would differ from you in opinion however is that the most selfish schools in the ACC are the core of 5 and if there is one thing selfish institutions do it's to act proactively to save themselves first, and frequently at the expense of others. Florida State and Clemson already know this and in the past they've been asked to sacrifice much more to protect the whole than North Carolina, Duke and Virginia will every be willing to do.
Here's the ACC:
Big East schools: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College
Football First BE schools: Virginia Tech, Miami
Old Core ACC Basketball schools: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Old Core ACC Football schools: Clemson, N.C. State
Football First schools added: Florida State, Georgia Tech
Substitute Hybrid: Louisville
Hybrid member: Notre Dame
Of the Old Core Football schools only N.C. State equally asserts hoops.
Things holding the ACC back:
1. 4 schools in a state of 11 million.
2. 5 privates and 1 semi private and 1 partial private
All it takes for another conference to get full value out of the ACC is for that conference to be prepared to take 5 of your state schools:
North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech
All it takes for the SEC is 2:
North Carolina, Virginia Tech/Virginia
But the SEC to protect its advertising advantage and deep South branding would also look at taking 3:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
The key fall back position for either the Big 10 or SEC is one North Carolina state school and one Virginia state school.
There's your value and money out of the ACC.
Notre Dame is the free agent plumb and they will never be in the SEC by virtue of mutual lack of interest.
Schools in some trouble should the ACC falter:
Duke, Boston College, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest and possibly Pittsburgh and Louisville depending upon which conference does the raiding and what becomes of the Big 12.
This is why we've in the past referred to the ACC as the Frankenstein conference and because it is a collection of schools with varying cultures and interests once a crack is started it will rupture. Maryland almost caused that as Virginia and Georgia Tech were both discussing Big 10 interest and North Carolina had called the SEC to see if we would take Duke with them if the worst happened in the ACC.
So GTS I have strong reason to believe that surprising as it may be to many that of the two approaches regarding the dismembering of the ACC, (A) decapitate the core (Virginia, North Carolina, Duke), or (B) sap its economic strength (Clemson and Florida State) that the most likely one to happen will be (A) as academics with Big 10 ties get antsy for money and get their team of lawyers together and figure out a way to bolt as a group if necessary to the Big 10. And I think N.D. will tag along with this departure.
Now what would motivate the Big 10 to do this?
The departure of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, possibly with Kansas and Texas Tech.
If it happens in that order then Clemson, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech will be sucking wind and will end up forming a new conference with the remnants of the Big 12 and it will likely be compensated as well as the Big 12, but will never again have a chance to be competitive with the Big 10 or SEC with revenue.
Waiting in the belief that UNC, Duke and UVa won't leave first and won't act in their own best interest is a mistake the rest can't afford to make. Because if the SEC adds Texas and Oklahoma they have no reason to ever add you, especially if the North Carolina and Virginia are gone.
I don't see the Big 10 moving in for Florida State or Georgia Tech at that point because if they land Notre Dame, Virginia and Duke it strengthens their academic profile and with Notre Dame their revenue and further additions for them would not be prudent.
As for the SEC the additions of Texas and Oklahoma alone would add 2 billion dollars worth of value to the conference. The value of F.S.U., Clemson, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State combined don't equal 1 billion.
CONCLUSION:
The SEC has no need of further expansion due to declining profits if they add Texas and Oklahoma. If we have to take Texas Tech to get Texas we will and Kansas makes the most sense to balance out the move.
The single most important addition for the Big 10 is N.D. because it completes their advertising advantage in their own footprint. North Carolina and Virginia would be major market and academic additions that would not hesitate to make. Duke would be an acceptable cost for that gain.
If the SEC and Big 10 both move to 18 with those schools then neither fears the other's additions and neither have profitable moves left to make.
You have to figure where you stand in the world after those moves happen.
The 3 x 20 model is merely the only one that preserves most of the P3 and preserves them in what would be a more competitive grouping. Practicality and reality have nothing to do with those groupings. They are designed mythically to demonstrate how to move forward with competitive balance within a reasonable geographical grouping.
Market forces and human nature won't permit such structures but they should serve as a reminder of how very difficult it will be to (a) include most schools we presently have in the P5, and (b) maintain competitive balance as we move forward.