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JRsec Offline
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Post: #1
Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
1. The Big 12 and PAC merge and the Big 10 and SEC raid the ACC:

Big 10:
Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Virginia
Ohio State, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Syracuse
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

SEC:
Kentucky, Louisville, Missouri, N.C. State, Virginia Tech
Auburn, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt
Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee
Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Miss State, Texas A&M

PAC/Big 12
Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
Arizona, Arizona State, California, Southern Cal, U.C.L.A.
Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U., Utah
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State




2.

Big 10 at 20:
California, Oregon, Stanford, Utah, Washington
Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin
Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Indiana, Maryland, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC at 20:
Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina
Alabama, Florida State, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Louisiana State, Miami, Mississippi, Missouri, Texas A&M

Big 12 at 20:
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Southern Cal, U.C.L.A.
Louisville, N.C. State, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Virginia Tech
Arkansas, Baylor, Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U.
Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State


Now you can work this with Missouri instead of Arkansas, or without Miami and keeping all of the SEC's schools intact and substitution Miami for Arkansas in the Big 12's lineup.

Discuss.
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2020 04:52 PM by JRsec.)
03-03-2020 04:51 PM
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Post: #2
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
I'd view dissolution into the B1G/SEC through an "onion" model. You have to kinda work through one layer at a time to get the next layer to make sense.

GT, CU, FSU | VT, Miami, UofL | Duke, UNC, NCST, UVA, WF | BC, Cuse, Pitt

From the left we are grouped into chunks based upon how readily and nicely they would plug into the SEC as well as their willingness to split off. From the right we are grouped into chunks the same way but for the B1G. I don't think there's much drama in best fitting first group of three for either side. My argument after the first layer of the onion is without GT, CU, FSU that VT, Miami, and Louisville (the only football firsts left) would be hat in hand at the door waiting to leave to greener football pastures. Both sides kinda hit an impasse on Tobacco Road. That group of 5 is pretty solid. Even peeling off Wake to leave them behind would be harder than you might think. I just don't know if the SEC/B1G are willing to swallow that many teams or if that group of 5 teams would finally split up and part ways.
03-04-2020 12:19 PM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
(03-04-2020 12:19 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I'd view dissolution into the B1G/SEC through an "onion" model. You have to kinda work through one layer at a time to get the next layer to make sense.

GT, CU, FSU | VT, Miami, UofL | Duke, UNC, NCST, UVA, WF | BC, Cuse, Pitt

From the left we are grouped into chunks based upon how readily and nicely they would plug into the SEC as well as their willingness to split off. From the right we are grouped into chunks the same way but for the B1G. I don't think there's much drama in best fitting first group of three for either side. My argument after the first layer of the onion is without GT, CU, FSU that VT, Miami, and Louisville (the only football firsts left) would be hat in hand at the door waiting to leave to greener football pastures. Both sides kinda hit an impasse on Tobacco Road. That group of 5 is pretty solid. Even peeling off Wake to leave them behind would be harder than you might think. I just don't know if the SEC/B1G are willing to swallow that many teams or if that group of 5 teams would finally split up and part ways.

Then the obvious strategy between the SEC and Big 10 where the ACC is concerned is for the SEC to move first. Clemson and Florida State alone to the SEC would naturally peak the interest of Virginia Tech and even if it didn't, the TV cash for athletics will have been gutted and at a time when the revenue gap is already 30 million.

Where I would differ from you in opinion however is that the most selfish schools in the ACC are the core of 5 and if there is one thing selfish institutions do it's to act proactively to save themselves first, and frequently at the expense of others. Florida State and Clemson already know this and in the past they've been asked to sacrifice much more to protect the whole than North Carolina, Duke and Virginia will every be willing to do.

Here's the ACC:
Big East schools: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College
Football First BE schools: Virginia Tech, Miami
Old Core ACC Basketball schools: Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest
Old Core ACC Football schools: Clemson, N.C. State
Football First schools added: Florida State, Georgia Tech
Substitute Hybrid: Louisville
Hybrid member: Notre Dame

Of the Old Core Football schools only N.C. State equally asserts hoops.

Things holding the ACC back:
1. 4 schools in a state of 11 million.
2. 5 privates and 1 semi private and 1 partial private

All it takes for another conference to get full value out of the ACC is for that conference to be prepared to take 5 of your state schools:
North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech

All it takes for the SEC is 2:
North Carolina, Virginia Tech/Virginia

But the SEC to protect its advertising advantage and deep South branding would also look at taking 3:
Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The key fall back position for either the Big 10 or SEC is one North Carolina state school and one Virginia state school.

There's your value and money out of the ACC.

Notre Dame is the free agent plumb and they will never be in the SEC by virtue of mutual lack of interest.

Schools in some trouble should the ACC falter:
Duke, Boston College, Miami, Syracuse, Wake Forest and possibly Pittsburgh and Louisville depending upon which conference does the raiding and what becomes of the Big 12.

This is why we've in the past referred to the ACC as the Frankenstein conference and because it is a collection of schools with varying cultures and interests once a crack is started it will rupture. Maryland almost caused that as Virginia and Georgia Tech were both discussing Big 10 interest and North Carolina had called the SEC to see if we would take Duke with them if the worst happened in the ACC.

So GTS I have strong reason to believe that surprising as it may be to many that of the two approaches regarding the dismembering of the ACC, (A) decapitate the core (Virginia, North Carolina, Duke), or (B) sap its economic strength (Clemson and Florida State) that the most likely one to happen will be (A) as academics with Big 10 ties get antsy for money and get their team of lawyers together and figure out a way to bolt as a group if necessary to the Big 10. And I think N.D. will tag along with this departure.

Now what would motivate the Big 10 to do this?

The departure of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, possibly with Kansas and Texas Tech.

If it happens in that order then Clemson, Georgia Tech, N.C. State, Florida State, and Virginia Tech will be sucking wind and will end up forming a new conference with the remnants of the Big 12 and it will likely be compensated as well as the Big 12, but will never again have a chance to be competitive with the Big 10 or SEC with revenue.

Waiting in the belief that UNC, Duke and UVa won't leave first and won't act in their own best interest is a mistake the rest can't afford to make. Because if the SEC adds Texas and Oklahoma they have no reason to ever add you, especially if the North Carolina and Virginia are gone.

I don't see the Big 10 moving in for Florida State or Georgia Tech at that point because if they land Notre Dame, Virginia and Duke it strengthens their academic profile and with Notre Dame their revenue and further additions for them would not be prudent.

As for the SEC the additions of Texas and Oklahoma alone would add 2 billion dollars worth of value to the conference. The value of F.S.U., Clemson, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State combined don't equal 1 billion.

CONCLUSION:
The SEC has no need of further expansion due to declining profits if they add Texas and Oklahoma. If we have to take Texas Tech to get Texas we will and Kansas makes the most sense to balance out the move.

The single most important addition for the Big 10 is N.D. because it completes their advertising advantage in their own footprint. North Carolina and Virginia would be major market and academic additions that would not hesitate to make. Duke would be an acceptable cost for that gain.

If the SEC and Big 10 both move to 18 with those schools then neither fears the other's additions and neither have profitable moves left to make.

You have to figure where you stand in the world after those moves happen.

The 3 x 20 model is merely the only one that preserves most of the P3 and preserves them in what would be a more competitive grouping. Practicality and reality have nothing to do with those groupings. They are designed mythically to demonstrate how to move forward with competitive balance within a reasonable geographical grouping.

Market forces and human nature won't permit such structures but they should serve as a reminder of how very difficult it will be to (a) include most schools we presently have in the P5, and (b) maintain competitive balance as we move forward.
(This post was last modified: 03-04-2020 01:05 PM by JRsec.)
03-04-2020 12:57 PM
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georgia_tech_swagger Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
I just don't see a way for UNC to bolt solo without causing an enormous political logjam similar but far worse to VT being left behind. I subscribe to the idea that more or less UNC/NCST/Duke are "one unit" and will only move as one.
03-04-2020 01:34 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
(03-04-2020 01:34 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  I just don't see a way for UNC to bolt solo without causing an enormous political logjam similar but far worse to VT being left behind. I subscribe to the idea that more or less UNC/NCST/Duke are "one unit" and will only move as one.

That's exactly what I said. Notre Dame will be the 4th and the most likely move is to the Big 10 and if they made that move they wouldn't blink an eye about the rest of you.

And if that move happens because the SEC has added Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, and likely Texas Tech there won't be anywhere for those left behind to go so the formation of a new conference with the remnants of the Big 12 becomes more likely.

You might make a little more money than the current Big 12 but you would never catch up.
03-04-2020 01:51 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
In this type scenario, I would prefer UNC and Duke as a package to the Big Ten. I would also like to see Louisville and NCState in the SEC.

But I would be flexible — as any of JRsec's three scenarios would prove very interesting related to the schools I root for/follow.
03-07-2020 10:08 AM
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10thMountain Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
I don’t see more than 16 happening

Again, with the incredibly high money hurdles candidate has to be able to clear in order to be a net positive to the conference thanks to the 60+ million contract coming up; the list of actual schools the SEC would consider now just got shortened significantly and being able to add more than two at once will be all but impossible.

Schools like Kansas that were once “they’d be nice but only if UT/OU sign first” are no longer real possibilities. Little Brother Political Tagalongs like Tech and OSU that could never hope to sniff an invite on their own are now 100% fantasy picks.

It’s now down to just a handful of fairly long shot possibilities like UT, OU, Notre Dame, UNC and Duke. Even previously highly prized picks like Florida State and Clemson are probably not realistic choices anymore because of the astoundingly high new barrier to entry that the next contract will be.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2020 05:29 PM by 10thMountain.)
03-08-2020 05:28 PM
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Post: #8
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
Let's assume Disney wants to go the Marvel/Star Wars route and say ... hey ... if it's worth doing, it's worth doing with a monopoly and then overdoing and then jacking up the price of everything because we have a monopoly and media hyping and juicing the crap out of it with cross promotions all year long. Baby yoda wearing houndstooth only for sale in Disney World Resorts! $49.99!

The-Mickey-Mouse-As-Scarface-Conference

I Told You To Listen, You Stupid ****, Look At You Now Division:
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri

We're Going To War Division:
LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia

Say Hello To My Little Friend Division:
Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, UNC, NC State, Duke, WF

Who Put This Thing Together? Me, That's Who Division:
Kentucky, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame


Now obviously I put this together tongue in cheek at first. But it's actually both alarmingly plausible and functionally brilliant. A nine team division is perfect for scheduling. You get a home and home round robin in basketball with your division and with two permanent crossover rivals. For every division that's more lucrative of a home schedule than you're currently playing. You get built in ease of byes and crossovers in football. Play the 8 teams in your division, two permanent crossovers, a semi-final against the next division over during championship week, and then a conference championship game during the same weekend as Army/Navy. This mini-playoff will generate a lot of attractive at-large teams who played high profile games against high profile opponents. Everybody else you get a schedule designed to help get the last few teams over the hump and bowl eligible. This means nearly all games in the last two weeks are highly meaningful with post season implications. I think everybody in all divisions with the exception of the Irish and the Cavaliers would have a higher football gate attendance with this sort of schedule. From Scarface Fuhrer Mickey's perspective ... it's a wash with the B1G for the TV dense I-95 NE corridor. They also dominate the B1G's flagship media city of Chicago via ND. As soon as you cross the Potomac or Ohio or Missouri or North Platte Rivers going south ... and then from the Rio Grande to the seaboard ... it's a 100% Disney operation if you want to advertise to CFB fans at the P5 level. And that listed area includes about ... what ... 2/3 to 3/4 of all the high level high school football talent? It would also include about 70%+ of the US population as being "in footprint". That means Fuhrer Mickey would own all the most valuable turf and have enough fingers in the other pies via existing agreements for Pac12 After Dark and a (T2?) B1G game to still be a player everywhere else. Imagine how lucrative it would be to own effectively 70-80% of the media value of the NFL. Well CFB is second only to the NFL in revenue. And Disney already owns nearly all the associated media rights with all the schools listed (yes, there's notable outliers like ND FB and some ACC T2). The question is why would they spend more to unify these holdings? To reorganize them more efficiently and more according to people's desires. Ask anybody in a P5 and they can readily tell you some gripes they've got with their schedule or their division or both. And those are all warts put on for the sake of existing as non-overlapping assets for an almost entirely overlapping media entity.

It would be like Alberta joining the United States as the 51st state. I'm not saying it's going to happen. But I am saying if it did happen it would make everybody involved HUGELY more wealthy, more happy, more in control of their destiny, and would actually remove more barriers to fulfilling existing consumer demand than it would create.

But-but-but-but some schools might make less than they might could -- well how about we go away from equal sharing and go toward you get a payout that reflects the TV demand you brought to the table. This has some built in "welfare" in that the little guys still play the big guys and that helps bring their average up. You could easily run it through a formula that curves the results to make the teams closer to the median or closer to reality depending on whatever is politically agreeable. Then everybody still makes not just more money but filthy more money. Well I suppose Vanderbilt could be looking at less. But isn't that kinda justice in some ways? And it isn't like that's a problem they can't fix. There's nothing that says you have to be where you are now 10 or 20 years from now. And we all know Vandy's strategy is to use that sweet sweet football money to field some really good teams in other sports. Wake Forest is a similar story but they actually try.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2020 07:25 PM by georgia_tech_swagger.)
03-08-2020 06:54 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
(03-08-2020 06:54 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  Let's assume Disney wants to go the Marvel/Star Wars route and say ... hey ... if it's worth doing, it's worth doing with a monopoly and then overdoing and then jacking up the price of everything because we have a monopoly and media hyping and juicing the crap out of it with cross promotions all year long. Baby yoda wearing houndstooth only for sale in Disney World Resorts! $49.99!

The-Mickey-Mouse-As-Scarface-Conference

I Told You To Listen, You Stupid ****, Look At You Now Division:
Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri

We're Going To War Division:
LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia

Say Hello To My Little Friend Division:
Florida State, Miami, Georgia Tech, Clemson, South Carolina, UNC, NC State, Duke, WF

Who Put This Thing Together? Me, That's Who Division:
Kentucky, Louisville, Virginia, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame


Now obviously I put this together tongue in cheek at first. But it's actually both alarmingly plausible and functionally brilliant. A nine team division is perfect for scheduling. You get a home and home round robin in basketball with your division and with two permanent crossover rivals. For every division that's more lucrative of a home schedule than you're currently playing. You get built in ease of byes and crossovers in football. Play the 8 teams in your division, two permanent crossovers, a semi-final against the next division over during championship week, and then a conference championship game during the same weekend as Army/Navy. This mini-playoff will generate a lot of attractive at-large teams who played high profile games against high profile opponents. Everybody else you get a schedule designed to help get the last few teams over the hump and bowl eligible. This means nearly all games in the last two weeks are highly meaningful with post season implications. I think everybody in all divisions with the exception of the Irish and the Cavaliers would have a higher football gate attendance with this sort of schedule. From Scarface Fuhrer Mickey's perspective ... it's a wash with the B1G for the TV dense I-95 NE corridor. They also dominate the B1G's flagship media city of Chicago via ND. As soon as you cross the Potomac or Ohio or Missouri or North Platte Rivers going south ... and then from the Rio Grande to the seaboard ... it's a 100% Disney operation if you want to advertise to CFB fans at the P5 level. And that listed area includes about ... what ... 2/3 to 3/4 of all the high level high school football talent? It would also include about 70%+ of the US population as being "in footprint". That means Fuhrer Mickey would own all the most valuable turf and have enough fingers in the other pies via existing agreements for Pac12 After Dark and a (T2?) B1G game to still be a player everywhere else. Imagine how lucrative it would be to own effectively 70-80% of the media value of the NFL. Well CFB is second only to the NFL in revenue. And Disney already owns nearly all the associated media rights with all the schools listed (yes, there's notable outliers like ND FB and some ACC T2). The question is why would they spend more to unify these holdings? To reorganize them more efficiently and more according to people's desires. Ask anybody in a P5 and they can readily tell you some gripes they've got with their schedule or their division or both. And those are all warts put on for the sake of existing as non-overlapping assets for an almost entirely overlapping media entity.

It would be like Alberta joining the United States as the 51st state. I'm not saying it's going to happen. But I am saying if it did happen it would make everybody involved HUGELY more wealthy, more happy, more in control of their destiny, and would actually remove more barriers to fulfilling existing consumer demand than it would create.

But-but-but-but some schools might make less than they might could -- well how about we go away from equal sharing and go toward you get a payout that reflects the TV demand you brought to the table. This has some built in "welfare" in that the little guys still play the big guys and that helps bring their average up. You could easily run it through a formula that curves the results to make the teams closer to the median or closer to reality depending on whatever is politically agreeable. Then everybody still makes not just more money but filthy more money. Well I suppose Vanderbilt could be looking at less. But isn't that kinda justice in some ways? And it isn't like that's a problem they can't fix. There's nothing that says you have to be where you are now 10 or 20 years from now. And we all know Vandy's strategy is to use that sweet sweet football money to field some really good teams in other sports. Wake Forest is a similar story but they actually try.

I don't necessarily disagree with the groupings having profound advantages, but why stop at 36?

Arizona, Arizona St, California, U.C.L.A., Oregon, U.S.C., Stanford, Utah, Washington

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin

Colorado, Brigham Young, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State

Arkansas, Baylor, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, T.C.U.

Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Tennessee

Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland, North Carolina, N.C. State, Notre Dame, Penn State, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Out:
PAC: Washington State, Oregon State
B1G: Rutgers, Northwestern
B12: West Virginia
ACC: Duke, Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
SEC: Vanderbilt

Now you have 6 divisions of nine schools regionally grouped with 54 schools who are competitive because they negotiate their contracts as one unit.

The 6 division champs and 2 at large are picked each year for the CFP.

If you have to include more then create a sort of private division:
Duke, Miami, Northwestern, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, West Virginia
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2020 08:17 PM by JRsec.)
03-08-2020 08:14 PM
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Post: #10
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
(03-08-2020 08:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Out:
PAC: Washington State, Oregon State
B1G: Rutgers, Northwestern
B12: West Virginia
ACC: Duke, Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
SEC: Vanderbilt

Now you have 6 divisions of nine schools regionally grouped with 54 schools who are competitive because they negotiate their contracts as one unit.

The 6 division champs and 2 at large are picked each year for the CFP.

If you have to include more then create a sort of private division:
Duke, Miami, Northwestern, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, West Virginia

I wonder if it would become a political issue at the state level for Wazzou or the Beavers to get left behind. I don't know if any of those privates left behind are political wildcards like when they tried to leave Baylor behind and the TX Governor was a Baylor alum (I think I have that right, it was quite a long time ago). I'm also concerned about the number of potential allies and wildcards you're making at the federal level after you add up Rutgers, West Virginia, Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Northwestern, Miami, Wazzou, and Oregon State. That's a lot of moving parts. Some of those privates punch well above their weight with media ties and political alums.
03-08-2020 08:55 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Two Different Ways to Get to 3 Conferences of 20 Members Each
(03-08-2020 08:55 PM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  
(03-08-2020 08:14 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Out:
PAC: Washington State, Oregon State
B1G: Rutgers, Northwestern
B12: West Virginia
ACC: Duke, Boston College, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
SEC: Vanderbilt

Now you have 6 divisions of nine schools regionally grouped with 54 schools who are competitive because they negotiate their contracts as one unit.

The 6 division champs and 2 at large are picked each year for the CFP.

If you have to include more then create a sort of private division:
Duke, Miami, Northwestern, Miami, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, West Virginia

I wonder if it would become a political issue at the state level for Wazzou or the Beavers to get left behind. I don't know if any of those privates left behind are political wildcards like when they tried to leave Baylor behind and the TX Governor was a Baylor alum (I think I have that right, it was quite a long time ago). I'm also concerned about the number of potential allies and wildcards you're making at the federal level after you add up Rutgers, West Virginia, Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Northwestern, Miami, Wazzou, and Oregon State. That's a lot of moving parts. Some of those privates punch well above their weight with media ties and political alums.

As long as moves happened at the end of the PAC GOR in 2025 there isn't much that can be done. And if the new upper tier established minimums for investment in the product you could eclipse those two and many of the privates.

But that is why I left the last suggestion of adding yet another 9 team division and making the playoff 7 division champs and 1 at large if need be. 63 is still better than 65, but the pie would be much healthier at 54.
03-08-2020 09:17 PM
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