Shocked I've seen nothing on BYU-Gonzaga, let alone San Diego State's first loss to UNLV.

(02-23-2020 01:27 PM)_C2_ Wrote:  Shocked I've seen nothing on BYU-Gonzaga, let alone San Diego State's first loss to UNLV.

March Madness is just a Kiss Away.

Providence the last three weeks. That’s the right kind of headcount they’re picking up, and the wrong kind of program you want doing so at this point in the season.

46 NET / 50 RPI / 48 KP

Their mistakes are no secret, but, those wins...

(02-23-2020 03:08 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Providence the last three weeks. That’s the right kind of headcount they’re picking up, and the wrong kind of program you want doing so at this point in the season.

46 NET / 50 RPI / 48 KP

Their mistakes are no secret, but, those wins...

still need 2 more wins to make the dance...

another team that is starting to really make a run- UCLA...

(02-23-2020 03:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 03:08 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Providence the last three weeks. That’s the right kind of headcount they’re picking up, and the wrong kind of program you want doing so at this point in the season.

46 NET / 50 RPI / 48 KP

Their mistakes are no secret, but, those wins...

still need 2 more wins to make the dance...

Given what remains, that’s achievable. The trouble may be going 1-2 into the BET, and that one win being against Nova.

(02-23-2020 10:56 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 03:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 03:08 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Providence the last three weeks. That’s the right kind of headcount they’re picking up, and the wrong kind of program you want doing so at this point in the season.

46 NET / 50 RPI / 48 KP

Their mistakes are no secret, but, those wins...

still need 2 more wins to make the dance...

Given what remains, that’s achievable. The trouble may be going 1-2 into the BET, and that one win being against Nova.

They either are going to have to beat Nova, Xavier, or QF BET game... Assuming they beat DePaul.

(02-23-2020 10:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  They either are going to have to beat Nova, Xavier, or QF BET game... Assuming they beat DePaul.

Your certainty is noted, but, regardless, going 1-2, with or without Nova, will be a head-scratcher going into the BET. Not that I disagree with your assessment, but, Providence presents some serious questions and issues about the reliability and value of NET, as well as the kind of divisive questions about win quality and quantity for inclusion versus non-major programs.

This team could be that "highest snub."

(02-24-2020 03:32 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(02-23-2020 10:58 PM)stever20 Wrote:  They either are going to have to beat Nova, Xavier, or QF BET game... Assuming they beat DePaul.

Your certainty is noted, but, regardless, going 1-2, with or without Nova, will be a head-scratcher going into the BET. Not that I disagree with your assessment, but, Providence presents some serious questions and issues about the reliability and value of NET, as well as the kind of divisive questions about win quality and quantity for inclusion versus non-major programs.

This team could be that "highest snub."

They need 2 wins period, with at least 1 of those in the regular season.

if they get that- they are worst case 18-15. with either 8-9 Q1 wins. A team like that I think gets in fairly easily.

Providence had a monster slip-up at Thanksgiving, losing to Penn, Charleston and Long Beach State. However, I would never bet against Ed Cooley. His teams always get better as the season goes on, and I would be willing to bet that they do just enough to sneak into the tournament (and, likely, cause a serious headache for whomever gets their draw).

I'm not fixated on the bid. I'm focused on the metric. It's that you can scrape so close to .500 and still be within the boundaries of worthiness.

Last year, you had Penn State with a sub-.500 record as a top 50 team. I can't imagine what might have happened if PSU had just crept over .500. No doubt the NET would have been even higher. If you have to be over .500 for at-large consideration, how close to just over do you have to be?

For this Providence team, with metrics that consistently place them within the top 50 (something NCST didn't have with its high NET, as it had a bad RPI), a likely above-.500 conference record, and an interesting kill count, they'll be an intriguing case.

I'm not a fan of NET. If RPI didn't do enough for SOS, NET seems to go overboard with it. For a school who had such a bad non-conference, we're only talking about Providence because their "good wins" shot their numbers through the roof, and you kind of can't ignore them now.

Well, in the last 25 years, only 1 team, Georgia in 2001 has been fewer than 4 games over .500 and made the tourney.

Providence right now is 16-12. So 4 games over.

Cincinnati beats Wichita and drops from 53 to 54.
13-13 Minnesota beats 6-20 Northwestern and jumps from 51 to 42.

(02-24-2020 11:02 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Cincinnati beats Wichita and drops from 53 to 54.
13-13 Minnesota beats 6-20 Northwestern and jumps from 51 to 42.

For Cincy, I wouldn’t be surprised if the luster of the Wichita win wasn’t smudged by WVU losing to Texas. WVU was one of those good losses for the Shockers. But, who knows...WVU dropped but Wichita didn’t.

Wichita is playing themselves out of this thing.

As for Minny...the power of the conference SOS. Dog crap wins shouldn’t catapult teams so much so late in the season, unless you’re playing in a bad conference. Certainly not upward.

Duke in serious trouble against Sleep.

Wake takes down Duke in double OT.

Something about Dayton...like, both of their losses, to great teams and to their credit, were close, but they seem to be playing down lately. I don't know if Davidson has what it takes to beat them in Ohio, but I could see Rhodie pulling it off when UD visits them.

Either that or don't be surprised if the A10 once again screws the bubble over by giving its AQ to a team off the board. I don't know if Dayton can hold up off its court if it sequentially sees a Duquesne, VCU, Saint Louis, Davidson, Rhode Island, or Richmond so soon after each other. Someone is going to get the better of them in Brooklyn.

(02-25-2020 10:39 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Something about Dayton...like, both of their losses, to great teams and to their credit, were close, but they seem to be playing down lately. I don't know if Davidson has what it takes to beat them in Ohio, but I could see Rhodie pulling it off when UD visits them.

Either that or don't be surprised if the A10 once again screws the bubble over by giving its AQ to a team off the board. I don't know if Dayton can hold up off its court if it sequentially sees a Duquesne, VCU, Saint Louis, Davidson, Rhode Island, or Richmond so soon after each other. Someone is going to get the better of them in Brooklyn.

It seems like each year, the prime candidates housing 'bid thieves' are the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West Conferences. Of course, lesser teams from the Power 6 can qualify for that moniker too, but it just seems like the lines of demarcation are pretty stark for the leagues I mentioned, when it comes to the upper echelon teams and the good, but not necessarily great challengers. Was it 1995 or 1996 that St. Joseph's entered the A-10 tourney and took its first loss? I think it happened in the quarterfinals.
VCU has been struggling as of late and UNLV's overall record isn't pretty to look at, but both teams have the goods to win their respective conference titles to make the Field of 68. It's not likely to happen, but if teams like Northern Iowa and East Tennessee State have their NET ratings under 40 when the Missouri Valley and SoCon tournaments tip off, they may have a chance to get at-large bids if they lose in the semi-final or championship rounds of their tournaments. It will be a stretch, but it could happen.
Like earlier posts on this thread, I don't see how NET is a dramatic improvement over the old RPI system. As far as I can tell, it's not the 'end-all, be-all' metric to determine at-large teams.
Championship Week begins next Tuesday. It's one of my favorite times of the year.

(02-26-2020 09:16 AM)Midwestan Wrote:  Like earlier posts on this thread, I don't see how NET is a dramatic improvement over the old RPI system. As far as I can tell, it's not the 'end-all, be-all' metric to determine at-large teams.

It’s supposed to be the pick of the composite metrics, and the one of choice for the committee, but, we’ll see how it ages. Considering you saw a top 35 team, and one from a major conference, get snubbed last year was kinda shocking. Probably more so because RPI adjusted them over fifty places lower than NET. Like RPI provided context...when it was replaced because it didn’t provide enough context?

SOS is just a hard metric itself. It speaks nothing to scheduling intent for those who miss on games that don’t provide the perceived value initially envisioned. And I’m one who believes the non-conference component should be spread out throughout the season instead of being front-loaded. The Big Ten this year exposes what happens when all this good work happens at the start...teams don’t filter out as they fade in the conference season because the SOS component keeps them strong. At least RPI would see past the conference and eliminate programs who couldn’t do the work in the conference. NET utterly fails on that one.

Minnesota loses to Maryland, and drops a spot in NET. We have a .500 team inside the top 40 and a sub-.500 team at 45. In RPI, Purdue is 96 and Minnesota is 103. KenPom loves them more than NET, at 26 and 32 respectively.