CoC loses for the fourth time in a row? Two lanes open up for us to move into the 4/5 spot.

The CAA pointed out that you can get any seed from 3 through 7, which is half of the seeds. Getting the 3 would happen by winning a four-way tie. If you win both and Delaware and Towson lose both, all three will be 10-8. Charleston is 9-7 and would be ahead of the tie if they win both. If they lose both, Delaware, who swept you, would win the three-way tiebreaker. If Charleston goes 1-1 to make a four-way tie, you would get the 3 seed because you swept Charleston. First the four-way head-to-head would be 4-2 for you and Charleston, 3-3 for Delaware, and 1-5 for Towson. Then you would win head-to-head over Charleston. Charleston hosts Delaware and Drexel. Since the tie requires Delaware to lose both, it makes Charleston beat Delaware and lose to Drexel. Summarizing, all of these must happen for you to get the 3 seed:

Thursday:
Charleston wins hosting Delaware at 6:00 P.M. on CBS Sports Network
Hofstra wins hosting Towson at 7:00 P.M.
You win hosting JMU at 8:00 P.M.

Saturday:
Drexel wins at Charleston at 4:00 P.M.
UNCW wins hosting Delaware at 7:00 P.M.

Sunday:
You win hosting Towson at 4:00 P.M. on CBS Sports Network

Drexel at UNCW on Thursday, Elon at W&M on Saturday, and JMU at Hofstra on Saturday are irrelevant to you getting the 3 seed.

You have six possibilities for your first CAA Tournament game including anything hypothetically possible even if it's a one in a thousand chance. Hofstra, Elon, and Drexel cannot be your first opponent.

Paging Evan to outline the new set of scenarios. Could it be better to finish 6th than 5th?

I think I would prefer to avoid Delaware and Hofstra as long as possible. However beggars cant be choosers and while maybe we are better than our record, we deserve whatever comes to us.

(02-27-2020 11:06 PM)NUFan35 Wrote:  Paging Evan to outline the new set of scenarios. Could it be better to finish 6th than 5th?

If Charleston makes it to the third seed.....which they cam....then it could be argued that us finishing in sixth would be better.

(02-28-2020 07:15 AM)SomebodyToLove Wrote:  I think I would prefer to avoid Delaware and Hofstra as long as possible. However beggars cant be choosers and while maybe we are better than our record, we deserve whatever comes to us.

I agree. Delaware seems to have our number and Hofstra is more beatable on night three than on night two.

(02-28-2020 11:05 AM)NUGUY Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 11:06 PM)NUFan35 Wrote:  Paging Evan to outline the new set of scenarios. Could it be better to finish 6th than 5th?

If Charleston makes it to the third seed.....which they cam....then it could be argued that us finishing in sixth would be better.

If you want to avoid Delaware and Hofstra, you want to be the 6 with Hofstra as the 1. Delaware will be 4 or 5, so if you want to avoid them, you don't want to win and have Charleston lose. Charleston hosts Drexel, so if Charleston wins, you won't be able to move up to 5.

https://caasports.com/news/2020/2/28/men...arios.aspx has the tiebreakers.

(02-28-2020 03:10 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 11:05 AM)NUGUY Wrote:  

(02-27-2020 11:06 PM)NUFan35 Wrote:  Paging Evan to outline the new set of scenarios. Could it be better to finish 6th than 5th?

If Charleston makes it to the third seed.....which they cam....then it could be argued that us finishing in sixth would be better.

If you want to avoid Delaware and Hofstra, you want to be the 6 with Hofstra as the 1. Delaware will be 4 or 5, so if you want to avoid them, you don't want to win and have Charleston lose. Charleston hosts Drexel, so if Charleston wins, you won't be able to move up to 5.

https://caasports.com/news/2020/2/28/men...arios.aspx has the tiebreakers.

And us losing to Towson and CoC beating Drexel is not exactly a long shot. Towson looked really strong last night and we will be without Tyson. In the CoC game, Drexel struggles on the road.

Problem with that is, that likely means we play Towson again right after losing to them. Probably not in a great mental state in that case.

(02-28-2020 06:34 PM)SomebodyToLove Wrote:  Problem with that is, that likely means we play Towson again right after losing to them. Probably not in a great mental state in that case.

Well, I guess you can't have everything. If we beat Towson and CoC and Delaware win as expected then our first game is against Delaware.

Edit: On second thought it looks like we would play CoC in that case. I'm getting a headache.

The ideal scenario would be to lose and have Charleston and Delaware win. That would leave Charleston, Delaware and Hofstra all on the other side of the bracket

(02-29-2020 12:22 PM)NUFan35 Wrote:  The ideal scenario would be to lose and have Charleston and Delaware win. That would leave Charleston, Delaware and Hofstra all on the other side of the bracket

Check out the list of tiebreakers that Evan posted. It says that if Delaware, CoC and Towson all finish at 11-7 then Delaware and Hofstra would be on the other side of the bracket but CoC would be the third seed....who we would play in our first game. Maybe I'm reading this wrong.

(02-29-2020 12:22 PM)NUFan35 Wrote:  The ideal scenario would be to lose and have Charleston and Delaware win. That would leave Charleston, Delaware and Hofstra all on the other side of the bracket

Disagree. I would much rather go into the Tourney with a win vs Towson. If we lose against them we have to play them again in DC. I'd rather play Charleston who we have beaten twice.

I think as of now with two games left in CAA play, we are guaranteed on the opposite bracket of both Delaware and Hofstra

(02-29-2020 07:19 PM)SomebodyToLove Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 12:22 PM)NUFan35 Wrote:  The ideal scenario would be to lose and have Charleston and Delaware win. That would leave Charleston, Delaware and Hofstra all on the other side of the bracket

Disagree. I would much rather go into the Tourney with a win vs Towson. If we lose against them we have to play them again in DC. I'd rather play Charleston who we have beaten twice.

I think as of now with two games left in CAA play, we are guaranteed on the opposite bracket of both Delaware and Hofstra

I am confused. How do we play Towson if we lose to them tomorrow? Don't we play CoC if we lose to Towson tomorrow?

(02-29-2020 09:40 PM)NUGUY Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 07:19 PM)SomebodyToLove Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 12:22 PM)NUFan35 Wrote:  The ideal scenario would be to lose and have Charleston and Delaware win. That would leave Charleston, Delaware and Hofstra all on the other side of the bracket

Disagree. I would much rather go into the Tourney with a win vs Towson. If we lose against them we have to play them again in DC. I'd rather play Charleston who we have beaten twice.

I think as of now with two games left in CAA play, we are guaranteed on the opposite bracket of both Delaware and Hofstra

I am confused. How do we play Towson if we lose to them tomorrow? Don't we play CoC if we lose to Towson tomorrow?

You're the 6. If you lose, Towson is 12-6 and gets the 3. If you win, Towson is 11-7, in a the-way tie with Charleston and Delaware, and the tiebreaker make it Charleston 3, Towson 4, and Delaware 5. If you lose, you'll know what you did wrong and try to redeem yourselves next Sunday.

(02-29-2020 10:06 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 09:40 PM)NUGUY Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 07:19 PM)SomebodyToLove Wrote:  

(02-29-2020 12:22 PM)NUFan35 Wrote:  The ideal scenario would be to lose and have Charleston and Delaware win. That would leave Charleston, Delaware and Hofstra all on the other side of the bracket

Disagree. I would much rather go into the Tourney with a win vs Towson. If we lose against them we have to play them again in DC. I'd rather play Charleston who we have beaten twice.

I think as of now with two games left in CAA play, we are guaranteed on the opposite bracket of both Delaware and Hofstra

I am confused. How do we play Towson if we lose to them tomorrow? Don't we play CoC if we lose to Towson tomorrow?

You're the 6. If you lose, Towson is 12-6 and gets the 3. If you win, Towson is 11-7, in a the-way tie with Charleston and Delaware, and the tiebreaker make it Charleston 3, Towson 4, and Delaware 5. If you lose, you'll know what you did wrong and try to redeem yourselves next Sunday.

Gotcha.

Personally, I would much rather play Towson than Charleston. I don't put a lot of stock in the 2 wins vs C of C in terms of how that would impact next week (I think it wouldn't at all). We made a huge comeback in the first game and hit them during a bad stretch in the 2nd. They also have the best player in the league (arguably) and a ton of experience in big games so those also scare me. Either way, it will be tough so it probably isn't a slam dunk choice either way. We play at 8:30 next Sunday night regardless

Yeah. Either way it will be tough. Towson just killed the leading team in the conference on the road. They did it by getting 25 offensive rebounds for 26 second chance points but Hofstra stayed in a zone until the last few minutes and Towson continually got great rebounding position. Plus, they didn't have to worry about Hofstra's fast break transition offense. Our game is different on both counts and when we played earlier this year they only got four OR's. One positive thing about winning today would be putting Towson in the 4/5 slot setting up a possible Hofstra rematch. Hoping for some good news about Tyson, too.

Good point. I hadn't thought about the benefit of shifting Towson into the Delaware/Hofstra section. I am guessing they'll rest Ty today and we won't know until warm-ups next week (like Sean last year)

You went from down 4 to up 5 to blowing that. With 3:29 left in the first half, Walters tied it at 27, but Towson went on a 7-0 run in the last 2:59 and leads 34-27. With 18 seconds left and the shot clock running out, Roland had to shoot a long three, tried to draw a foul, and got a miss without a whistle. E got an offensive rebound, but Brace missed, and he shot with 7 seconds left and the shot clock off. Jakigh Dottin's long three was short, and the announcers he shot too soon because he had time to get to the three-point line before shooting. Roland is you only double-digit scorer with 14, and Brian Fobbs is Towson's only double-digit scorer with 10. Fobbs leads all players with 5 rebounds, and Jason Gibson leads all players with 3 assists. E leads you with 4 rebounds, and Walters has 2 of your 4 assists. Turnovers and fouls were low for both teams, and you had 1 more of each. Towson shot free throws 4-4, and you shot 0-1. Your problem was that you attempted more threes (16) than twos (14) and shot threes 3-16 (.188). Towson had 4 more rebounds, 1 more steal, and 1 more block. You didn't have any bench points or fast break points. Each team used eight players, and Walker didn't play.

http://barttorvik.com/conf.php?conf=CAA has you at second most likely to win the CAA Tournament, and I wonder how much that will change after today's game. It also ranks all CAA players with one number similar to WAR in baseball, and it has Roland first.