(02-21-2020 09:12 AM)doubleduke2016 Wrote: Not to be devil's advocate but if I were AD of a school, you can even take JMU out of it, and I saw my MBB attendance dropping like crazy and I saw MBB attendance across the country dropping pretty quickly I would be nervous. If I looked at a school like Wofford who got a 7 seed in the NCAA tournament last year and had one of their best seasons ever and had an avg of 2,300 fans in a 3,600 seat arena...I would be nervous. If I looked at Texas who just spent a ton of money to get a hot young up and coming coach to lead our program only to see the team struggle and attendance plummet...I would be nervous. If I looked at a school like Kentucky, a true blue blood who had a great team last year but once again saw attendance drop despite paying a ton of money for a coach and having a great team and having great match-ups...I would be nervous. If I read a recent article about the UNC-Duke game, arguably the hottest ticket in College BB every year, having historically low turnout from the students tenting out to get tickets...I would be nervous.
I am not saying that we don't need to get a great coach. I am not saying that paying a coach who is a proven winner is a bad idea. I am not saying a fancy new arena won't help. I am not saying winning games will not bring fans in. However....
I am saying that I think we are over simplifying a bigger problem. Someone posted on another thread that the math was simple. We spend a lot of money to get a great coach and then attendance doubles and we can easily pay for the new coach and some. The struggle I would have is I were an AD and budgets were a real thing and getting people to show up was a real issue, the part I would have a hard time with is looking at the attendance dropping everywhere, the attendance dropping at the blue bloods, the attendance being low for the mid-major who is making a historical run, the attendance dropping at the hottest game when you are having 1 down year, the attendance being dismal at a school that invested a ton of money into a winning coach who is not replicating things. We like to think it's as simple as "get a good coach, pay them a lot, the building will be packed and you will rake in the cash" none of it is that easy and I think that scenario is the most unlikely. Looking at the current picture of men's basketball and the odds it is much more likely you get a good coach and pay them a lot of money and they don't win. Or they win but the fans don't show up.
I'm not saying I know the answer but I think we think it is way easier than it is. The days of the blue bloods selling out every game and raking in cash our diminishing let alone the guys lower on the pole. I think w need to do something to reverse things but we also need to have realistic expectations that we probably aren't going to have sold out games and a rabid fanbase at every game because that is getting more and more rare in all of sports now.
I think you make some good points. I agree that there's more to it than just throwing a lot of money at a coach. Throwing a lot of money at a guy doesn't mean that guy is going to be good, bring the program success and ultimately bring back fans. At the same time, paying someone a minimum salary doesn't fix it either.
But here's the thing: a coach is what we need to fix it. Not just any coach. Not just a guy with a name that people recognize. It has to be the RIGHT coach.
The ultimate question then is: who is the right coach? The right coach is the kind of coach that JMU needs right now. Look really close at the state of our program.
Ultimately we need a guy that can win. That's a no brainer. We need a guy that has not only shown he can win, but can win consistently. A random 20 win year here and there isn't going to cut it.
Most importantly, we need a guy that has proven he can turn around a program. Some guys can win but do not have the capabilities to turn a losing program into a winning one. We need a guy that knows what it takes to turn a losing culture into a winning one. It doesn't matter if the guy is Div III, II or I in my opinion. If he's proven he can do it, hire that person.
We cannot afford to take a chance on an assistant coach of any program. Doesn't matter how good the program is. We cannot afford right now to bring in a guy with zero head coaching experience.
But you bring in the right guy and let him do what he was hired to do and I do think the rest will take care of itself. Wins will come, fans will return, revenue will increase. Even if the guy is here just a few years, we need someone to leave this program in better shape than it was. That would be something that hasn't happened in decades.