We are at 14 members. The only stipulations I place upon you is to limit your divisions to no more than 4 and the number of schools in them no more than 6.

Give me your conference at 16 and explain how we added those teams and why.

Give me your conference at 18 and explain how we added those teams and why.

Give me your conference at 20 and explain how we added those teams and why.

And give me your conference at 24 and explain how we added those teams and why.

For your 16, 18, and 20 member conferences please adhere to the standard of profitability understanding that a school that does not add a new market has to have strong content value and in the case of Texas and Oklahoma strong enough to consider another school traveling with them. And in the case of a new market why they would be important additions to the SEC.

At 24 just give me the reason the conference would feel compelled to add those extra 4 schools and market defense and brand integrity are acceptable reasons. Protecting rivalries and AAU additions are acceptable reasons. Other reasons may be stated as they may add a novel consideration to the effort.

But be sure to explain what may have happened that made acquiring these schools possible.

When finished we'll vote on the offerings and award rep based on finish.

I'll not participate but will help to judge or may ask you to provide information that would help justify your selections.

Have Fun!

If you are not a fan of the SEC and want to participate then do the exact same thing for your chose conference.

SEC adds Texas at 15 in mid 2020’s.

The presidents in Austin and College Station appear to be on good terms and want to see the series renewed sooner than the constraints of OOC scheduling is allowing. Texas season ticket holders are are looking for better home matchups and the thought of adding non-key schools from the PAC just won’t suffice. Texas rejoins A&M and Arkansas from the old southwest conference days, but now waits on the decision of a school from up north.

SEC adds Oklahoma at 16 in mid 2020’s.

After Texas abandons the Big 12, OU evaluates the financials of rebuilding the Big 12, following Texas to the SEC, or joining the Big Ten. The evaluations on a retooled Big 12 are not flattering; the conference can survive financially, but the total revenue distributions per school will be much closer to ACC and PAC money instead of SEC and B1G money. The fans overwhelmingly push the administration toward the SEC, the faculty rave the association with the Big Ten, but the president decides that their school can leave Oklahoma State in a conference without OU or UT and still survive on its own without adding a burden to the state’s budget. Greg Sankey welcomes the sixteenth member.

SEC:

East: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Clemson, FSU, UNC, VT

Central: TN, Vandy, KY, Alabama, Auburn, Miss. St., Ole Miss

West: LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M, Ark, OK, Kansas, TCU

This is an adaptation of one of my earlier proposals (which took GT over VT and added Texas/Tech/OK/Ok St. Instead of TCU/Kansas/FSU).

Rationales: VT and UNC bring in strong new markets and UNC is AAU.

Clemson/FSU bring in rivals and shore up the Florida market as well as being in a strong football brand.

TCU extends are presence in Texas to Dallas, as does OK and it's brand. Kansas is an AAU, basketball blue blood, and rival of Missouri.

This is 21, which wasn't an option but is less than 4 divisions and under 24 teams. I can repost if I am outside the rules.

Guys, I want to see your scenarios for all of those configurations, not just one. Who are the 2 at 16, who else is added at 18, and what 6 to make 20 and how and why are they profitable?

Then give me your defensive additions that take us to 24 and no justification of profitability is required for them, just your reasons why the SEC should take them to keep them out of another conference's hands.

So give me a scenario for each number.

And yes Soobahk you need to stay within guidelines for divisions because I seriously doubt we move to a division-less format by 2024.

Without writing a thesis, below is my stab at this scenario:

1) The SEC adds Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as #15 and #16 as soon as feasible according to the expiring Big 12 contract in 2025. The combination is still profitable to the SEC, and it seems very clear that the state of Oklahoma is not letting OSU be stuck in an inferior conference or $$$ situation. This is also a preemptive move to build a barrier to Texas from the BIG. Texas now saves face by not being the school that breaks up the Big 12, thus saving it the wrath of Baylor and TCU folks in state government.

2) The SEC then adds Texas and Texas Tech as #17 and #18 because, you know, that is what is best for Texas Tech and the unity of the state's flagship institutions... or something like that. Texas plays the victim of circumstance. Among the old guard (Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida) and LSU and TAMU in a position of power, there should be no qualms about dealing with Texas' sassiness. Concerning profitability, the combination of Texas and Incarnate Word would still be in the black for any conference in the nation, so Texas Tech is not a hard pill to swallow.

3a) Here is where things get interesting. The Big 12 is essentially gutted. Does Kansas become the one-eyed king in the land of the blind, or do they cut a deal? I do not think it is coincidence at all that Kansas hired Jeff Long and Les Miles. They knew this was coming, but they could not be the first or second to jump because the state of Kansas has been adamant about Kansas State being harbored like Ok St and Texas Tech. However, those ships have sailed, and KU can legitimately say that either they can stay afloat on their own or both ships are going down. Kansas jumps to the SEC as #19. They are not profitable as a single entity, but it is justifiable because they are considered as part of a five-product package that is an overall boost in revenue with the added benefit of building an absolute end to BIG expansion to the West. The remaining Big 12 immediately invites Cincinnati, Memphis, Houston, BYU, UCF, and USF. Which ones say yes? That is a whole other thread...

3b) I know the rules say that #19 and #20 happen at the same time, but #20 will need to happen as soon as the ACC either decides their existing structure is no longer workable or when their contract with ESPN expires in 2034ish. Naturally, the BIG will make a push on the east coast. If they had really wanted the westward expansion, they could have done it last time by also taking Missouri and likely Kansas. So, I don't think they were stunned by the SEC expansion. With the ACC old guard seeing the end game in sight, the BIG goes for broke and adds Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, and North Carolina. It is of nominal economic impact to the BIG, but it is an important defensive posture for them. Florida State, who seemed to be the most discontented of the ACC members last time around before the ACCN was struck, does not hesitate and jumps to the SEC as #20. They are the last school that could be added by the SEC other than Notre Dame that is at least a wash in terms of revenue, but it brings value by locking the BIG out of Florida unless they decide to claim Miami, which would require the BIG to have a completely new expansion rulebook from how it has been perceived to this point.

4) The SEC now has exhausted the opportunities for expansion that bring immediate revenue increased, so they expand in terms of territorial defense, revenue potential, and cultural fit. Knowing that expanding into the heart of SEC country with the second most popular and profitable schools in the state is a losing proposition for them, the BIG concedes Georgia Tech (#21), Clemson (#22), and North Carolina State (#23) to the SEC. The SEC is strengthened in all arenas except athletic revenue, but they make investments to turn the state of North Carolina into SEC country by rotating in Charlotte with the traveling circus of championships and events normally held in Atlanta, Nashville, and New Orleans. Now, the SEC wants to round out the conference to 24 to bring some symmetry to the divisions. With Louisville, Miami, Wake Forest, and Pitt as the last remaining viable options, they choose Louisville strictly because of revenue generation, but they publicly sell it as preservation of the rivalry with Kentucky. In the next few years, these new additions are amazed at how much more they can collect in alumni donations for premier seating when they actually have more than one or two compelling match-ups on the schedule.

Your new SEC at some point between 2024 and 2035 is below:

Western Division - Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Missouri
Southern Division - LSU, Arkansas, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Alabama, Texas A&M
Mid-South Division - Louisville, Kentucky, Tennessee, North Carolina State, South Carolina, Clemson
East Division - Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Vanderbilt

(02-15-2020 07:06 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
Guys, I want to see your scenarios for all of those configurations, not just one. Who are the 2 at 16, who else is added at 18, and what 6 to make 20 and how and why are they profitable?

Then give me your defensive additions that take us to 24 and no justification of profitability is required for them, just your reasons why the SEC should take them to keep them out of another conference's hands.

So give me a scenario for each number.

And yes Soobahk you need to stay within guidelines for divisions because I seriously doubt we move to a division-less format by 2024.

JRsec,

My 21 team league would be 3 divisions and a wild card, not divisionless.

For further clarification, is the idea:
1) The SEC goes to 16 then to 18 then to 20 then to 24?
Or
2) The SEC goes to 16 or to 18 or to 20?

i.e, is it 2 at a time up to 20 then 24, or is it all at once expansion, as that would change the game.

As to the idea, yes. Leave your 21 plan in there if you like but cover the ones I requested. JR

I'm not much for many words so here goes. I am tracking both the SEC (the point of the exercise) and the B1G. The two conferences will undoubtedly bounce off each other and make moves, in some part, because of the moves or intentions of the other. Other commentary will be added as well as additional alignment at the end.

Current:

SEC
West: Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Alabama, Auburn
East: Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina

B1G
West: Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue
East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

---

To 16:

With the ACC essentially untouchable until mid-2030s, the XII schools are on the table. With only Oklahoma and Texas adding to the bottom line for the SEC, the conference must get at least one. Texas, wanting to remain a big fish, refuses to discuss moving to either the SEC or B1G and wants to keep the XII intact. Oklahoma sees the writing on the wall and accepts the SEC's invitation. The SEC agrees to take in Oklahoma St as well. The B1G invites Kansas, who accepts, along with...Colorado from the PAC. Texas goes independent in football having a Notre Dame type deal with the XII who (now at 6) adds from the AAC to get to 12 - likely SMU, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and South Florida. XII autobid moves from Sugar Bowl to Cotton Bowl. Sugar Bowl adds B1G #2. Orange Bowl becomes ACC #1 vs. ND/SEC. PAC stays at 11.

SEC
West: Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
East: Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina

B1G
West: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern
East: Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Maryland, Rutgers

---

To 18:

The ACC GoR approaches expiration and the schools, making significantly less than the SEC and B1G, begin discussions. The SEC invites and accepts Florida St for #15. The Seminoles add to bottom line of the SEC, slightly, but still do. The B1G has Atlantic expansion dreams and brings Virginia on board with Syracuse. North Carolina was invited but refused to move without Duke - the B1G wasn't ready for 20 yet. The SEC counters with Virginia Tech - an SEC type school with good academics and access to the Beltway for markets and recruiting. The PAC sits at 11. The ACC pulls West Virginia and Cincinnati from the XII to get to 12. The XII, now at 10, brings in Temple and East Carolina for 12.

SEC
West: Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU
South: Mississippi, Mississippi St, Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East: Kentucky, Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Florida St

B1G
West: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
North: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Ohio St
East: Michigan St, Penn St, Syracuse, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia

---

To 20:

Getting nervous with the slow demise of the XII, Texas opens itself up for negotiations. The SEC makes the most compelling argument from a regional and financial perspective. The B1G academic culture makes the school leadership excited. In the end, the B1G would not allow for Texas to bring the friend of its choice unless that friend was Rice. The SEC verbalizes their approval for Texas to bring Texas Tech. SEC goes to 20. The B1G immediately invites and accepts North Carolina and Duke. The PAC sits at 11. The XII and ACC are both at 10 for football and 11 for all other sports. They sit for now. The Rose Bowl is still PAC vs. B1G. The Sugar Bowl is still SEC vs. B1G. The Orange Bowl is renegotiated by Notre Dame and becomes ACC/ND vs. SEC. XII maintains their Cotton Bowl bid.

SEC
West: Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Texas, Texas Tech
South: Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
Central: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Auburn
East: Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Florida St

B1G
West: Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Northwestern
Central: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue
North: Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St, Penn St, Syracuse
East: Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke

---

To 24:

The B1G's ultimate plan to expand into the South Atlantic is no surprise to the SEC who blocks such a move by adding Georgia Tech, Clemson, and North Carolina St and, in an unexpected move, pries Kansas from the B1G to settle at 24. The B1G, now at 19, sees their best additions westward and goes to 28 with Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona St, and Utah. The PAC is down to 2, the XII is at 10, and the ACC is at 7. Two conferences form from these remaining schools and a few others. Notre Dame remains independent in football but joins the B1G as a non-football member with 6 annual B1G football games (with USC and Stanford each year as part of those 6.) BYU joins the new western conference in football with non-football sports in the WCC. Navy joins Army in the new eastern conference with non-football sports in the Patriot. Air Force is in the new western conference but, after considering the Summit, moves its non-football sports to the WCC. Hawaii keeps non-football with the Big West.

SEC
West: Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, Missouri
Central: Texas A&M, Arkansas, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Vanderbilt
South: Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Florida
East: Virginia Tech, North Carolina St, South Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida St

B1G
West: Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, USC, UCLA, Arizona
Central: Arizona St, Utah, Colorado, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
North: Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan St, Ohio St
East: Penn St, Syracuse, Rutgers, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Duke

MEC - METRO EAST CONFERENCE
West: Navy*, SMU, Baylor, Houston, Tulane, Memphis
South: Central Florida, South Florida, East Carolina, Wake Forest, Louisville, Cincinnati
North: Miami, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Temple, Boston College, Army*

AWC - AMERICAN WEST CONFERENCE
West: Hawaii*, San Diego St, Fresno St, Oregon St, Washington St, Boise St
Mountain: Nevada, UNLV, BYU*, Utah St, Wyoming, Colorado St
Central: Air Force*, New Mexico, Iowa St, Kansas St, Tulsa, TCU

IND: Notre Dame

*Football-only*

CFP/NY8
CFP to 8 and adding the Las Vegas Bowl and Citrus Bowl to "elite bowl status."
Rose Bowl Classic: B1G Championship Game
Sugar Bowl Classic: SEC Championship Game
Quarter-finals: Fiesta/Cotton/Orange/Peach/Las Vegas/Citrus
Semi-finals / NCG: bid by cities
When not a quarter-final:
Orange: SEC vs. B1G
Peach: SEC vs. MEC
Las Vegas: B1G vs. AWC
Fiesta: B1G vs. At-Large
Cotton: SEC vs. At-Large
Citrus: At-Large vs. At-Large

In 2025, the PAC is on the verge of collapsing, and the SEC and the Big 10 are making nearly 30 million more than any other conference. The Big 12 is actually more stable than the PAC but Texas and OK are looking for outs.

OK is the first to move, and convinces Kansas to join them. They are put in the west along with Missouri and Alabama and Auburn move east and protected rivalries end. The SEC is at 16, with a football powerhouse and a basketball blueblood and AAU school.

With those two off the board, the Big 10 decides it cannot fall behind the SEC. In a stunning move, it takes Colorado and USC, Washington, and Oregon in a move to 18.

The Big 12 takes the rest of the PAC and is now at 16 (10 minus OK/Kansas + 8 from the PAC)

Things seemed to be settled, but when the ACC GOR ends, the Big 10 pounces again. It grabs ND and Texas, as well as Cal and Stanford, and takes UVA and Duke to arrive at 24.

The SEC decides it needs to defend its southern borders and expand its market and takes UNC, and VT to go to 18. They consider taking another Texas school but instead decide to stay at 18. They may at some point take Clemson and FSU, but they don't feel the need to double down on those markets at the moment.[/align]

I'm going to take a different tack from the rest who have responded here.

So I look at where the SEC is right now. They're going to be massively compensated after providing premium content for relatively economical remuneration, being also in a privileged position in terms of recruiting, popularity, network availability and there seems to be no immediate threat to those. In addition, they also benefit from being flanked by two conferences that act as blocks against possible encroachment.

In my opinion, the SEC should renew their contract with the Big 12 for the Sugar Bowl, continuing their basketball contract as well. Their primary concern should be that UT and OU not feel pressured to leave for the time being, the reason being that the Big 12 has programs surrounding them that are too unattractive to other conferences without latching on to one of the two, thereby essentially acting as a natural block. While I understand the conventional wisdom of approaching those two to prevent others from taking them, to me the SEC should be better off keeping the Big 12 as currently constituted as their partner for the immediate future.

It's to their East that the threats to their dominance may materialize. Fortunately, the ACC has a long-term GoR that prevents members from leaving. As that GoR gets closer to ending the higher population of the Eastern seaboard will still present opportunities for drastic change. It's there that the SEC should be ready to have backdoor channel discussions. There's only a small chance that the ACC would approach the economic numbers that the SEC would have by then, so there will be programs who will put out feelers to anyone who will listen. Florida State will be a program under great focus. It's the one program that would be the gate to accessing a high-population state and, by then, they may achieve the academics standards close them to merit inclusion to a northern conference.

Therefore, the SEC should be ready to initiate a defensive move. So Florida State and Georgia Tech become the 15th and 16th members of the SEC. Block Florida and Georgia for good even at the cost of some short-term gains.

With that southeastern flank secured, now the SEC can turn West. The new Big 12 GoR would probably end at around the same time as the ACC's. With their power unquestionably secured, they can afford to tell UT to pound sand. They take Oklahoma and Kansas as nos. 17 and 18, cutting off the central plains approach.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kentucky
Florida State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State
LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

For 20, they could afford to be more picky. Do they take in Clemson even though Clemson has no where else to go? Or do they do go for another basketball add? I say the SEC would be in a position to tell UNC that if they want a SEC spot that they can't ask for Duke to come with them. UNC relents, knowing their fans don't want to be in a northern conference.

UNC and Clemson become nos 19 and 20

UNC, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Florida State, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas


And, voilà, there's your final SEC lineup.


Aftermath: The Virginias are ceded to the Big 10, since it's trending blue anyway. Both Texas and Notre Dame are football independents. Duke, Miami, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Wake Forest move their other sports to the Big East. The PAC and Big 10 become the Union-Pacific Constellation. And thus ending realignment for good.

(02-20-2020 12:12 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm going to take a different tack from the rest who have responded here.

So I look at where the SEC is right now. They're going to be massively compensated after providing premium content for relatively economical remuneration, being also in a privileged position in terms of recruiting, popularity, network availability and there seems to be no immediate threat to those. In addition, they also benefit from being flanked by two conferences that act as blocks against possible encroachment.

In my opinion, the SEC should renew their contract with the Big 12 for the Sugar Bowl, continuing their basketball contract as well. Their primary concern should be that UT and OU not feel pressured to leave for the time being, the reason being that the Big 12 has programs surrounding them that are too unattractive to other conferences without latching on to one of the two, thereby essentially acting as a natural block. While I understand the conventional wisdom of approaching those two to prevent others from taking them, to me the SEC should be better off keeping the Big 12 as currently constituted as their partner for the immediate future.

It's to their East that the threats to their dominance may materialize. Fortunately, the ACC has a long-term GoR that prevents members from leaving. As that GoR gets closer to ending the higher population of the Eastern seaboard will still present opportunities for drastic change. It's there that the SEC should be ready to have backdoor channel discussions. There's only a small chance that the ACC would approach the economic numbers that the SEC would have by then, so there will be programs who will put out feelers to anyone who will listen. Florida State will be a program under great focus. It's the one program that would be the gate to accessing a high-population state and, by then, they may achieve the academics standards close them to merit inclusion to a northern conference.

Therefore, the SEC should be ready to initiate a defensive move. So Florida State and Georgia Tech become the 15th and 16th members of the SEC. Block Florida and Georgia for good even at the cost of some short-term gains.

With that southeastern flank secured, now the SEC can turn West. The new Big 12 GoR would probably end at around the same time as the ACC's. With their power unquestionably secured, they can afford to tell UT to pound sand. They take Oklahoma and Kansas as nos. 17 and 18, cutting off the central plains approach.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kentucky
Florida State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State
LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

For 20, they could afford to be more picky. Do they take in Clemson even though Clemson has no where else to go? Or do they do go for another basketball add? I say the SEC would be in a position to tell UNC that if they want a SEC spot that they can't ask for Duke to come with them. UNC relents, knowing their fans don't want to be in a northern conference.

UNC and Clemson become nos 19 and 20

UNC, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Florida State, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas


And, voilà, there's your final SEC lineup.


Aftermath: The Virginias are ceded to the Big 10, since it's trending blue anyway. Both Texas and Notre Dame are football independents. Duke, Miami, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Wake Forest move their other sports to the Big East. The PAC and Big 10 become the Union-Pacific Constellation. And thus ending realignment for good.

That's an interesting logic. The only thing I don't see, which doesn't detract from your scenario, is that I don't think ESPN really wants Texas to be an independent and I don't really think Texas wants to be one either. Now that doesn't detract from your scenario because in it Texas and Oklahoma stay put for awhile.

No doubt that the ACC is problematic to the SEC and your logic about Tech and F.S.U. is solid since Clemson doesn't fit the Big 10 profile. I did like the touch of saving that last slot for UNC but without Duke. I just wonder at that point if N.C. State becomes a priority.

(02-20-2020 12:55 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 12:12 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm going to take a different tack from the rest who have responded here.

So I look at where the SEC is right now. They're going to be massively compensated after providing premium content for relatively economical remuneration, being also in a privileged position in terms of recruiting, popularity, network availability and there seems to be no immediate threat to those. In addition, they also benefit from being flanked by two conferences that act as blocks against possible encroachment.

In my opinion, the SEC should renew their contract with the Big 12 for the Sugar Bowl, continuing their basketball contract as well. Their primary concern should be that UT and OU not feel pressured to leave for the time being, the reason being that the Big 12 has programs surrounding them that are too unattractive to other conferences without latching on to one of the two, thereby essentially acting as a natural block. While I understand the conventional wisdom of approaching those two to prevent others from taking them, to me the SEC should be better off keeping the Big 12 as currently constituted as their partner for the immediate future.

It's to their East that the threats to their dominance may materialize. Fortunately, the ACC has a long-term GoR that prevents members from leaving. As that GoR gets closer to ending the higher population of the Eastern seaboard will still present opportunities for drastic change. It's there that the SEC should be ready to have backdoor channel discussions. There's only a small chance that the ACC would approach the economic numbers that the SEC would have by then, so there will be programs who will put out feelers to anyone who will listen. Florida State will be a program under great focus. It's the one program that would be the gate to accessing a high-population state and, by then, they may achieve the academics standards close them to merit inclusion to a northern conference.

Therefore, the SEC should be ready to initiate a defensive move. So Florida State and Georgia Tech become the 15th and 16th members of the SEC. Block Florida and Georgia for good even at the cost of some short-term gains.

With that southeastern flank secured, now the SEC can turn West. The new Big 12 GoR would probably end at around the same time as the ACC's. With their power unquestionably secured, they can afford to tell UT to pound sand. They take Oklahoma and Kansas as nos. 17 and 18, cutting off the central plains approach.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kentucky
Florida State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State
LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

For 20, they could afford to be more picky. Do they take in Clemson even though Clemson has no where else to go? Or do they do go for another basketball add? I say the SEC would be in a position to tell UNC that if they want a SEC spot that they can't ask for Duke to come with them. UNC relents, knowing their fans don't want to be in a northern conference.

UNC and Clemson become nos 19 and 20

UNC, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Florida State, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas


And, voilà, there's your final SEC lineup.


Aftermath: The Virginias are ceded to the Big 10, since it's trending blue anyway. Both Texas and Notre Dame are football independents. Duke, Miami, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Wake Forest move their other sports to the Big East. The PAC and Big 10 become the Union-Pacific Constellation. And thus ending realignment for good.

That's an interesting logic. The only thing I don't see, which doesn't detract from your scenario, is that I don't think ESPN really wants Texas to be an independent and I don't really think Texas wants to be one either. Now that doesn't detract from your scenario because in it Texas and Oklahoma stay put for awhile.

No doubt that the ACC is problematic to the SEC and your logic about Tech and F.S.U. is solid since Clemson doesn't fit the Big 10 profile. I did like the touch of saving that last slot for UNC but without Duke. I just wonder at that point if N.C. State becomes a priority.

Being that Clemson already has a high number of fans inside North Carolina, especially around the Charlotte area, it makes sense to couple Clemson and UNC. That more than makes up for being a redundant second school in SC. UNC/Clemson becomes the basketball/football tandem to your East, similar to KU/OU on your West. GT and Florida State are the necessary defensive moves to put yourselves in the position to finish off.

The way I see ND and UT, instead of latching themselves to conferences for football purposes, they sign a series of long-term contracts with name programs. Look at it as similar to the relationship between ND and Navy but among programs with similar profiles.

Say, UT signs a series of 10-year contracts with Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Notre Dame. That covers basically the big-name games for their fans. Now they can add a mix of USC, Michigan, LSU, BYU and a number of prince-level programs, switching them out whenever needed. Then, fill in the obligatory state of Texas part of the schedule.

And should the likes of Syracuse and Pitt return to the Big East their football programs can go back to independence, freeing up more opponents on the schedule.

Even BYU would benefit as they'll see a higher quality of opponents over time and more opportunities to play in the East, where a good percentage of their fans live.

So, ironically, a larger SEC and somewhat larger Big 10 might result in even more football independents that are viable. And the higher number of football independents would serve as a good excuse to cut off expansion to a nice even number.

(02-20-2020 02:01 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 12:55 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 12:12 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm going to take a different tack from the rest who have responded here.

So I look at where the SEC is right now. They're going to be massively compensated after providing premium content for relatively economical remuneration, being also in a privileged position in terms of recruiting, popularity, network availability and there seems to be no immediate threat to those. In addition, they also benefit from being flanked by two conferences that act as blocks against possible encroachment.

In my opinion, the SEC should renew their contract with the Big 12 for the Sugar Bowl, continuing their basketball contract as well. Their primary concern should be that UT and OU not feel pressured to leave for the time being, the reason being that the Big 12 has programs surrounding them that are too unattractive to other conferences without latching on to one of the two, thereby essentially acting as a natural block. While I understand the conventional wisdom of approaching those two to prevent others from taking them, to me the SEC should be better off keeping the Big 12 as currently constituted as their partner for the immediate future.

It's to their East that the threats to their dominance may materialize. Fortunately, the ACC has a long-term GoR that prevents members from leaving. As that GoR gets closer to ending the higher population of the Eastern seaboard will still present opportunities for drastic change. It's there that the SEC should be ready to have backdoor channel discussions. There's only a small chance that the ACC would approach the economic numbers that the SEC would have by then, so there will be programs who will put out feelers to anyone who will listen. Florida State will be a program under great focus. It's the one program that would be the gate to accessing a high-population state and, by then, they may achieve the academics standards close them to merit inclusion to a northern conference.

Therefore, the SEC should be ready to initiate a defensive move. So Florida State and Georgia Tech become the 15th and 16th members of the SEC. Block Florida and Georgia for good even at the cost of some short-term gains.

With that southeastern flank secured, now the SEC can turn West. The new Big 12 GoR would probably end at around the same time as the ACC's. With their power unquestionably secured, they can afford to tell UT to pound sand. They take Oklahoma and Kansas as nos. 17 and 18, cutting off the central plains approach.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kentucky
Florida State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State
LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

For 20, they could afford to be more picky. Do they take in Clemson even though Clemson has no where else to go? Or do they do go for another basketball add? I say the SEC would be in a position to tell UNC that if they want a SEC spot that they can't ask for Duke to come with them. UNC relents, knowing their fans don't want to be in a northern conference.

UNC and Clemson become nos 19 and 20

UNC, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Florida State, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas


And, voilà, there's your final SEC lineup.


Aftermath: The Virginias are ceded to the Big 10, since it's trending blue anyway. Both Texas and Notre Dame are football independents. Duke, Miami, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Wake Forest move their other sports to the Big East. The PAC and Big 10 become the Union-Pacific Constellation. And thus ending realignment for good.

That's an interesting logic. The only thing I don't see, which doesn't detract from your scenario, is that I don't think ESPN really wants Texas to be an independent and I don't really think Texas wants to be one either. Now that doesn't detract from your scenario because in it Texas and Oklahoma stay put for awhile.

No doubt that the ACC is problematic to the SEC and your logic about Tech and F.S.U. is solid since Clemson doesn't fit the Big 10 profile. I did like the touch of saving that last slot for UNC but without Duke. I just wonder at that point if N.C. State becomes a priority.

Being that Clemson already has a high number of fans inside North Carolina, especially around the Charlotte area, it makes sense to couple Clemson and UNC. That more than makes up for being a redundant second school in SC. UNC/Clemson becomes the basketball/football tandem to your East, similar to KU/OU on your West. GT and Florida State are the necessary defensive moves to put yourselves in the position to finish off.

The way I see ND and UT, instead of latching themselves to conferences for football purposes, they sign a series of long-term contracts with name programs. Look at it as similar to the relationship between ND and Navy but among programs with similar profiles.

Say, UT signs a series of 10-year contracts with Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Notre Dame. That covers basically the big-name games for their fans. Now they can add a mix of USC, Michigan, LSU, BYU and a number of prince-level programs, switching them out whenever needed. Then, fill in the obligatory state of Texas part of the schedule.

And should the likes of Syracuse and Pitt return to the Big East their football programs can go back to independence, freeing up more opponents on the schedule.

Even BYU would benefit as they'll see a higher quality of opponents over time and more opportunities to play in the East, where a good percentage of their fans live.

So, ironically, a larger SEC and somewhat larger Big 10 might result in even more football independents that are viable. And the higher number of football independents would serve as a good excuse to cut off expansion to a nice even number.

It's an interesting take and a good read. Maybe UT can be sold on an independent approach, and interestingly enough to your credit I can see the rise of a number of independents as a result of a growing Big 10 and SEC. It certainly would give the malleability needed to not have to absorb so many of the other schools.

BTW: I agree about Virginia and Virginia Tech being likelier for the Big 10 and for not only academic but geographical reasons.

We'll see about all of this. But yours is a worthy concept.

(02-20-2020 12:12 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm going to take a different tack from the rest who have responded here.

So I look at where the SEC is right now. They're going to be massively compensated after providing premium content for relatively economical remuneration, being also in a privileged position in terms of recruiting, popularity, network availability and there seems to be no immediate threat to those. In addition, they also benefit from being flanked by two conferences that act as blocks against possible encroachment.

In my opinion, the SEC should renew their contract with the Big 12 for the Sugar Bowl, continuing their basketball contract as well. Their primary concern should be that UT and OU not feel pressured to leave for the time being, the reason being that the Big 12 has programs surrounding them that are too unattractive to other conferences without latching on to one of the two, thereby essentially acting as a natural block. While I understand the conventional wisdom of approaching those two to prevent others from taking them, to me the SEC should be better off keeping the Big 12 as currently constituted as their partner for the immediate future.

It's to their East that the threats to their dominance may materialize. Fortunately, the ACC has a long-term GoR that prevents members from leaving. As that GoR gets closer to ending the higher population of the Eastern seaboard will still present opportunities for drastic change. It's there that the SEC should be ready to have backdoor channel discussions. There's only a small chance that the ACC would approach the economic numbers that the SEC would have by then, so there will be programs who will put out feelers to anyone who will listen. Florida State will be a program under great focus. It's the one program that would be the gate to accessing a high-population state and, by then, they may achieve the academics standards close them to merit inclusion to a northern conference.

Therefore, the SEC should be ready to initiate a defensive move. So Florida State and Georgia Tech become the 15th and 16th members of the SEC. Block Florida and Georgia for good even at the cost of some short-term gains.

With that southeastern flank secured, now the SEC can turn West. The new Big 12 GoR would probably end at around the same time as the ACC's. With their power unquestionably secured, they can afford to tell UT to pound sand. They take Oklahoma and Kansas as nos. 17 and 18, cutting off the central plains approach.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kentucky
Florida State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State
LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

For 20, they could afford to be more picky. Do they take in Clemson even though Clemson has no where else to go? Or do they do go for another basketball add? I say the SEC would be in a position to tell UNC that if they want a SEC spot that they can't ask for Duke to come with them. UNC relents, knowing their fans don't want to be in a northern conference.

UNC and Clemson become nos 19 and 20

UNC, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Florida State, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas


And, voilà, there's your final SEC lineup.


Aftermath: The Virginias are ceded to the Big 10, since it's trending blue anyway. Both Texas and Notre Dame are football independents. Duke, Miami, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Wake Forest move their other sports to the Big East. The PAC and Big 10 become the Union-Pacific Constellation. And thus ending realignment for good.

I like your logic, though I wonder if there will be a big push for Big 12 "available now" schools. That being said, I really do appreciate the OK/KS and UNC/Clemson symmetry. I also value UNC/Clemson in the SEC as "rivals" for some schools (in a previous thread I showed that Clemson and UNC both play a lot of SEC schools anyway). In that thread, I also added GT to the SEC. But, I think that Virginia Tech is a better cultural fit with the SEC than with the Big 10, despite the school itself being a fit with the Big 10, if that makes sense. You have Duke going to the Big East. I wonder if the Big 10 would take Duke/UVA instead of Virginia Tech/UVA. It keeps those two rivals together and adds to the Big 10 basketball powerhouses as well as maintains their AAU school pride.

That would mean that one of GT or FSU gets "left out" and that might be GT. I doubt that even if the Big 10 grabbed GT they would push the SEC out of Atlanta as the dominant conference.

(02-20-2020 02:01 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 12:55 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 12:12 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm going to take a different tack from the rest who have responded here.

So I look at where the SEC is right now. They're going to be massively compensated after providing premium content for relatively economical remuneration, being also in a privileged position in terms of recruiting, popularity, network availability and there seems to be no immediate threat to those. In addition, they also benefit from being flanked by two conferences that act as blocks against possible encroachment.

In my opinion, the SEC should renew their contract with the Big 12 for the Sugar Bowl, continuing their basketball contract as well. Their primary concern should be that UT and OU not feel pressured to leave for the time being, the reason being that the Big 12 has programs surrounding them that are too unattractive to other conferences without latching on to one of the two, thereby essentially acting as a natural block. While I understand the conventional wisdom of approaching those two to prevent others from taking them, to me the SEC should be better off keeping the Big 12 as currently constituted as their partner for the immediate future.

It's to their East that the threats to their dominance may materialize. Fortunately, the ACC has a long-term GoR that prevents members from leaving. As that GoR gets closer to ending the higher population of the Eastern seaboard will still present opportunities for drastic change. It's there that the SEC should be ready to have backdoor channel discussions. There's only a small chance that the ACC would approach the economic numbers that the SEC would have by then, so there will be programs who will put out feelers to anyone who will listen. Florida State will be a program under great focus. It's the one program that would be the gate to accessing a high-population state and, by then, they may achieve the academics standards close them to merit inclusion to a northern conference.

Therefore, the SEC should be ready to initiate a defensive move. So Florida State and Georgia Tech become the 15th and 16th members of the SEC. Block Florida and Georgia for good even at the cost of some short-term gains.

With that southeastern flank secured, now the SEC can turn West. The new Big 12 GoR would probably end at around the same time as the ACC's. With their power unquestionably secured, they can afford to tell UT to pound sand. They take Oklahoma and Kansas as nos. 17 and 18, cutting off the central plains approach.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kentucky
Florida State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State
LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

For 20, they could afford to be more picky. Do they take in Clemson even though Clemson has no where else to go? Or do they do go for another basketball add? I say the SEC would be in a position to tell UNC that if they want a SEC spot that they can't ask for Duke to come with them. UNC relents, knowing their fans don't want to be in a northern conference.

UNC and Clemson become nos 19 and 20

UNC, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Florida State, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas


And, voilà, there's your final SEC lineup.


Aftermath: The Virginias are ceded to the Big 10, since it's trending blue anyway. Both Texas and Notre Dame are football independents. Duke, Miami, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Wake Forest move their other sports to the Big East. The PAC and Big 10 become the Union-Pacific Constellation. And thus ending realignment for good.

That's an interesting logic. The only thing I don't see, which doesn't detract from your scenario, is that I don't think ESPN really wants Texas to be an independent and I don't really think Texas wants to be one either. Now that doesn't detract from your scenario because in it Texas and Oklahoma stay put for awhile.

No doubt that the ACC is problematic to the SEC and your logic about Tech and F.S.U. is solid since Clemson doesn't fit the Big 10 profile. I did like the touch of saving that last slot for UNC but without Duke. I just wonder at that point if N.C. State becomes a priority.

Being that Clemson already has a high number of fans inside North Carolina, especially around the Charlotte area, it makes sense to couple Clemson and UNC. That more than makes up for being a redundant second school in SC. UNC/Clemson becomes the basketball/football tandem to your East, similar to KU/OU on your West. GT and Florida State are the necessary defensive moves to put yourselves in the position to finish off.

The way I see ND and UT, instead of latching themselves to conferences for football purposes, they sign a series of long-term contracts with name programs. Look at it as similar to the relationship between ND and Navy but among programs with similar profiles.

Say, UT signs a series of 10-year contracts with Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Notre Dame. That covers basically the big-name games for their fans. Now they can add a mix of USC, Michigan, LSU, BYU and a number of prince-level programs, switching them out whenever needed. Then, fill in the obligatory state of Texas part of the schedule.

And should the likes of Syracuse and Pitt return to the Big East their football programs can go back to independence, freeing up more opponents on the schedule.

Even BYU would benefit as they'll see a higher quality of opponents over time and more opportunities to play in the East, where a good percentage of their fans live.

So, ironically, a larger SEC and somewhat larger Big 10 might result in even more football independents that are viable. And the higher number of football independents would serve as a good excuse to cut off expansion to a nice even number.

It is a very interesting concept.

Let me offer one wrinkle because I don't think the SEC would have any problem with adding UNC and Duke as a combo...

I agree that securing Florida State and Georgia Tech would pay off economically in the grand scheme of things. If Duke and UNC are added at that point then the SEC has a nice round 18.

Going to 20 wouldn't be bad, but I think Virginia Tech would fit well. The state as a whole has trended blue, but most people up there aren't that liberal. The Northern Virginia counties have come to dominate the politics even though they are culturally very different from most of the state. UVA would fit well in the Big Ten, but it's a small elite school. VT differs in that it has become the large state school. Either one would work in the Big Ten, but I think the SEC would take VT.

As the GORs are ending, I can see the wisdom in Texas going independent, but what if we skip ahead a couple of steps? For example, the old Big East came together because a ton of independents needed a little more structure in their life.

What if some of the key 'would-be' independents in this scenario form a conference of their own? Separate from the current structures of the Big 12 or ACC?

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Miami, Louisville, and West Virginia

In this scenario, Clemson and Virginia Tech are the 19th and 20th teams for the SEC. Like you said, the Big Ten grows by absorbing the core of the PAC 12.

Instead of looking at things from the SEC view, try to look at things as ESPN would.

1-do you need FOX "in the game" as a foil network, a la the way FOX and CBS handle the NFL.

2-do you want the Big 12 to survive.

Once you have made a decision on these points, you will be ready to move forward.

(02-20-2020 01:53 PM)XLance Wrote:  Instead of looking at things from the SEC view, try to look at things as ESPN would.

1-do you need FOX "in the game" as a foil network, a la the way FOX and CBS handle the NFL.

2-do you want the Big 12 to survive.

Once you have made a decision on these points, you will be ready to move forward.

I believe I was the first around here to push that perspective X. And I do look at things from the network perspective before asking what conferences want. But what conferences prefer does come into the picture before moves are made.

Things won't happen unless a network is willing to pay for it. But just because a network is willing to pay for it doesn't mean it's acceptable to the conference. So how do they save time? The conferences tell the networks what their parameters are and in some cases who they would and wouldn't accept. The networks then suggest a list of candidates within those parameters which if lured would raise the bottom line. Then the final part of the puzzle is pieced together when the schools involved either express an interest to proceed, or reject it.

Other networks and conferences get involved when those schools who are interested in making a move shop around to make sure they have the best possible deal, or the best possible deal with a concession they desire.

The back channels and back and forth and counter offers and back and forth take some time to play out. Right now with the GOR's expiring in 2025 for the Big 12 and PAC those back and forths have likely be going on already and almost certainly will be fairly well decided by 2022-3. Then legal work will begin behind the scenes before there is ever a public announcement which I wouldn't think likely until the 2024 season is over and the disbursements in which puts it around late Spring of 2025.

But if the conferences and schools have known the result since late 2023 then scheduling and entrance will all have been settled before the 2025 season begins.

Depending on the expiration dates of the GOR's movement could happen at the end of the 2024 season, or by the end of the 2025 season.

(02-20-2020 11:04 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 12:12 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm going to take a different tack from the rest who have responded here.

So I look at where the SEC is right now. They're going to be massively compensated after providing premium content for relatively economical remuneration, being also in a privileged position in terms of recruiting, popularity, network availability and there seems to be no immediate threat to those. In addition, they also benefit from being flanked by two conferences that act as blocks against possible encroachment.

In my opinion, the SEC should renew their contract with the Big 12 for the Sugar Bowl, continuing their basketball contract as well. Their primary concern should be that UT and OU not feel pressured to leave for the time being, the reason being that the Big 12 has programs surrounding them that are too unattractive to other conferences without latching on to one of the two, thereby essentially acting as a natural block. While I understand the conventional wisdom of approaching those two to prevent others from taking them, to me the SEC should be better off keeping the Big 12 as currently constituted as their partner for the immediate future.

It's to their East that the threats to their dominance may materialize. Fortunately, the ACC has a long-term GoR that prevents members from leaving. As that GoR gets closer to ending the higher population of the Eastern seaboard will still present opportunities for drastic change. It's there that the SEC should be ready to have backdoor channel discussions. There's only a small chance that the ACC would approach the economic numbers that the SEC would have by then, so there will be programs who will put out feelers to anyone who will listen. Florida State will be a program under great focus. It's the one program that would be the gate to accessing a high-population state and, by then, they may achieve the academics standards close them to merit inclusion to a northern conference.

Therefore, the SEC should be ready to initiate a defensive move. So Florida State and Georgia Tech become the 15th and 16th members of the SEC. Block Florida and Georgia for good even at the cost of some short-term gains.

With that southeastern flank secured, now the SEC can turn West. The new Big 12 GoR would probably end at around the same time as the ACC's. With their power unquestionably secured, they can afford to tell UT to pound sand. They take Oklahoma and Kansas as nos. 17 and 18, cutting off the central plains approach.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kentucky
Florida State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State
LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

For 20, they could afford to be more picky. Do they take in Clemson even though Clemson has no where else to go? Or do they do go for another basketball add? I say the SEC would be in a position to tell UNC that if they want a SEC spot that they can't ask for Duke to come with them. UNC relents, knowing their fans don't want to be in a northern conference.

UNC and Clemson become nos 19 and 20

UNC, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Florida State, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas


And, voilà, there's your final SEC lineup.


Aftermath: The Virginias are ceded to the Big 10, since it's trending blue anyway. Both Texas and Notre Dame are football independents. Duke, Miami, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Wake Forest move their other sports to the Big East. The PAC and Big 10 become the Union-Pacific Constellation. And thus ending realignment for good.

I like your logic, though I wonder if there will be a big push for Big 12 "available now" schools. That being said, I really do appreciate the OK/KS and UNC/Clemson symmetry. I also value UNC/Clemson in the SEC as "rivals" for some schools (in a previous thread I showed that Clemson and UNC both play a lot of SEC schools anyway). In that thread, I also added GT to the SEC. But, I think that Virginia Tech is a better cultural fit with the SEC than with the Big 10, despite the school itself being a fit with the Big 10, if that makes sense. You have Duke going to the Big East. I wonder if the Big 10 would take Duke/UVA instead of Virginia Tech/UVA. It keeps those two rivals together and adds to the Big 10 basketball powerhouses as well as maintains their AAU school pride.

That would mean that one of GT or FSU gets "left out" and that might be GT. I doubt that even if the Big 10 grabbed GT they would push the SEC out of Atlanta as the dominant conference.

GT by itself wouldn't do much but, combined with FSU's Atlanta-based fans and an in with fans in GA/FL, it would be a gut punch to SEC. The SEC will still be dominant, regardless, but the Big 10's resources would help them compete. And if we were to finish that off with Duke/UVA (I don't see a way UNC goes to Big 10) that would mean the Big 10 has a path from Washington to Orlando and everything in between.

Now you see why the SEC wouldn't want that to happen. In chess, you protect your king piece while trying to dominate the chess board. The king piece, in my not so humble opinion, is Florida State, not Texas.

1. I don't see Texas as likely for either the Big 10 or SEC. They'd probably go independent in football when push comes to shove, with a slight chance they'd take several programs to the PAC

2. FSU's academics have steadily improved since joining the ACC. They're probably around Nebraska's level right now, if you want a comparison. So you can't dismiss the possibility outright.

Therefore, I think the SEC may have no choice but to "castle" around Florida State before making any further moves outward. That's why I made the suggestion when I wear my SEC hat. If I were to put on my Big 10 hat I'm looking at finishing the move into DMV (D.C., Maryland and Virginia) and then cutting into Florida through Georgia, following the snowbirds. Plan B would be Oklahoma and Kansas (assuming Texas never comes). Plan C would be a scheduling agreement with the Pac 12.

(02-20-2020 01:07 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 02:01 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 12:55 AM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-20-2020 12:12 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  I'm going to take a different tack from the rest who have responded here.

So I look at where the SEC is right now. They're going to be massively compensated after providing premium content for relatively economical remuneration, being also in a privileged position in terms of recruiting, popularity, network availability and there seems to be no immediate threat to those. In addition, they also benefit from being flanked by two conferences that act as blocks against possible encroachment.

In my opinion, the SEC should renew their contract with the Big 12 for the Sugar Bowl, continuing their basketball contract as well. Their primary concern should be that UT and OU not feel pressured to leave for the time being, the reason being that the Big 12 has programs surrounding them that are too unattractive to other conferences without latching on to one of the two, thereby essentially acting as a natural block. While I understand the conventional wisdom of approaching those two to prevent others from taking them, to me the SEC should be better off keeping the Big 12 as currently constituted as their partner for the immediate future.

It's to their East that the threats to their dominance may materialize. Fortunately, the ACC has a long-term GoR that prevents members from leaving. As that GoR gets closer to ending the higher population of the Eastern seaboard will still present opportunities for drastic change. It's there that the SEC should be ready to have backdoor channel discussions. There's only a small chance that the ACC would approach the economic numbers that the SEC would have by then, so there will be programs who will put out feelers to anyone who will listen. Florida State will be a program under great focus. It's the one program that would be the gate to accessing a high-population state and, by then, they may achieve the academics standards close them to merit inclusion to a northern conference.

Therefore, the SEC should be ready to initiate a defensive move. So Florida State and Georgia Tech become the 15th and 16th members of the SEC. Block Florida and Georgia for good even at the cost of some short-term gains.

With that southeastern flank secured, now the SEC can turn West. The new Big 12 GoR would probably end at around the same time as the ACC's. With their power unquestionably secured, they can afford to tell UT to pound sand. They take Oklahoma and Kansas as nos. 17 and 18, cutting off the central plains approach.

South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Georgia Tech, Auburn, Kentucky
Florida State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State
LSU, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma, Arkansas

For 20, they could afford to be more picky. Do they take in Clemson even though Clemson has no where else to go? Or do they do go for another basketball add? I say the SEC would be in a position to tell UNC that if they want a SEC spot that they can't ask for Duke to come with them. UNC relents, knowing their fans don't want to be in a northern conference.

UNC and Clemson become nos 19 and 20

UNC, Clemson, South Carolina, Kentucky, Georgia Tech
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn
Florida State, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU
Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Kansas


And, voilà, there's your final SEC lineup.


Aftermath: The Virginias are ceded to the Big 10, since it's trending blue anyway. Both Texas and Notre Dame are football independents. Duke, Miami, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Wake Forest move their other sports to the Big East. The PAC and Big 10 become the Union-Pacific Constellation. And thus ending realignment for good.

That's an interesting logic. The only thing I don't see, which doesn't detract from your scenario, is that I don't think ESPN really wants Texas to be an independent and I don't really think Texas wants to be one either. Now that doesn't detract from your scenario because in it Texas and Oklahoma stay put for awhile.

No doubt that the ACC is problematic to the SEC and your logic about Tech and F.S.U. is solid since Clemson doesn't fit the Big 10 profile. I did like the touch of saving that last slot for UNC but without Duke. I just wonder at that point if N.C. State becomes a priority.

Being that Clemson already has a high number of fans inside North Carolina, especially around the Charlotte area, it makes sense to couple Clemson and UNC. That more than makes up for being a redundant second school in SC. UNC/Clemson becomes the basketball/football tandem to your East, similar to KU/OU on your West. GT and Florida State are the necessary defensive moves to put yourselves in the position to finish off.

The way I see ND and UT, instead of latching themselves to conferences for football purposes, they sign a series of long-term contracts with name programs. Look at it as similar to the relationship between ND and Navy but among programs with similar profiles.

Say, UT signs a series of 10-year contracts with Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Notre Dame. That covers basically the big-name games for their fans. Now they can add a mix of USC, Michigan, LSU, BYU and a number of prince-level programs, switching them out whenever needed. Then, fill in the obligatory state of Texas part of the schedule.

And should the likes of Syracuse and Pitt return to the Big East their football programs can go back to independence, freeing up more opponents on the schedule.

Even BYU would benefit as they'll see a higher quality of opponents over time and more opportunities to play in the East, where a good percentage of their fans live.

So, ironically, a larger SEC and somewhat larger Big 10 might result in even more football independents that are viable. And the higher number of football independents would serve as a good excuse to cut off expansion to a nice even number.

It is a very interesting concept.

Let me offer one wrinkle because I don't think the SEC would have any problem with adding UNC and Duke as a combo...

I agree that securing Florida State and Georgia Tech would pay off economically in the grand scheme of things. If Duke and UNC are added at that point then the SEC has a nice round 18.

Going to 20 wouldn't be bad, but I think Virginia Tech would fit well. The state as a whole has trended blue, but most people up there aren't that liberal. The Northern Virginia counties have come to dominate the politics even though they are culturally very different from most of the state. UVA would fit well in the Big Ten, but it's a small elite school. VT differs in that it has become the large state school. Either one would work in the Big Ten, but I think the SEC would take VT.

As the GORs are ending, I can see the wisdom in Texas going independent, but what if we skip ahead a couple of steps? For example, the old Big East came together because a ton of independents needed a little more structure in their life.

What if some of the key 'would-be' independents in this scenario form a conference of their own? Separate from the current structures of the Big 12 or ACC?

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Iowa State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Miami, Louisville, and West Virginia

In this scenario, Clemson and Virginia Tech are the 19th and 20th teams for the SEC. Like you said, the Big Ten grows by absorbing the core of the PAC 12.

Notre Dame had every chance to join a conference in football when they were in the Big East. They steadfastly refused. The NBE wouldn't be any different. What I see, instead, is a mega basketball conference consisting of the NBE and OBE combined. That works for both sides because the NBE won't have to sponsor football that won't have an autobid and the OBE would have security for the other sports.

Also remember that the NBE has a mega ace in its hole that is the contract with Madison Square Garden, the mecca of college basketball. That alone is worth creating a major conference surrounding basketball, to go alongside the Big 10, SEC and Pac 12 in the new structure.

Moreover, should the ACC and Big 12 lose key members they'll lose the autobid status. At that point, the remaining programs would be better off as independents and get tie-ins with the Orange, Peach, Cotton, Fiesta, Citrus or Gator. As long as more bowls are being created there will not be a lack of bowls in the future for these programs outside of the super conferences.

BYU, Texas, Notre Dame, Louisville, Syracuse, Miami, Pitt and West Virginia could be major football independents.

I'm sorry, I don't see anybody out there who helps SEC.
Texas, SEC already in Texas, slows down Tex kids to SEC schools,
Which would stagnate some SEC schools. More content, improve OOC sch.
Some of them games are criminal

Okla & OSU, Okla turns into another Nebraska
Every time I hear somebody try to justify OSU, my head just drops
Why on God's green earth would anybody be looking at Kansas
2011 C- USA tought they could get Kansas

NC, Va to much competition

ESPN's goal:

Make money and control collegiate athletics


The SEC has too much value, the ACC and the Big 12 not enough.
It appears as if ESPN may have an option to continue their relationship with the Big 12, having already made Big 12 tier 3 sports a cornerstone of ESPN+.

My plan for ESPN controlled conferences would be this: divide into three operating units with multiple crossover opportunities.

First I would move West Virginia into the ACC and divide that conference into three divisions.

Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, West Virginia, Louisville
UVA, Carolina, Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami
Va. Tech, NC State, Wake Forest, Clemson, Florida State

Notre Dame's status remains the same.

Second, I would move Arkansas and Missouri to the Big 12 to create an 11 team conference and then wait for Colorado to return

Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Arkansas

The third move would be to present a 12 team SEC (which I would pay no less than previously).

Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Alabama
Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky

I would require certain ESPN family OOC matchups like Texas/Texas A&M, and guarantee the continuation or others (Georgia/GT, Clemson/South Carolina, Florida/FSU, Kentucky/Louisville
Also I would strongly encourage Notre Dame to schedule one Big 12 and one SEC team each year in addition to their 5 ACC contests in football and to include series with Big 12 and SEC schools in other sports.

By breaking into three units instead of one or two, ESPN can increase inventory and be more flexible with scheduling in a more logical fashion.


Three divisions in the ACC will create a more regional feel as will the compactness of the other two and even allows the SEC to keep a toe in Texas.

This may not be what you were looking for, but I do believe that it would be good for ESPN, the conferences and ultimately college athletics while allowing the schools to maintain their profitable relationship with ESPN.

EDIT:
One thing that should be obvious, but is important to note. The backbone of the ESPN infrastructure is already in place (Bristol ((ESPN/ACC network)), Charlotte ((ESPNU/SEC network)), Austin ((LHN netowrk)) ).