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stever20 Offline
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Post: #1
Bubble Watch 2020
Here's from Bracketville guy the last 16 teams or so in along with the 1st 16 teams out- along with their opponents this weekend

33 Rutgers Sat vs Illinois-Won
34 Saint Mary's Sat vs Pacific-won
35 Oklahoma Sat @ Kansas- Lost
36 Indiana Sun @ Michigan-Lost
37 Purdue Sat @ Ohio St-lost
38 Xavier off this weekend
39 Florida Sat vs Vanderbilt-won
40 Arizona St Sun @ California-won
41 Virginia Sat @ North Carolina-won
42 Rhode Island Sat vs St Joseph's- Won
43 No Iowa(auto) Sat @ Loyola (Il)-lost
44 E Tenn St(auto) Sat @ VMI-won
45 Wichita St Sun vs Tulane-won
46 NC State Sun @ Boston College-lost
47 Cincy Sun @ East Carolina-won
48 Arkansas Sat vs Miss St-lost

69 Stanford Sat vs Arizona-lost
70 Georgetown Sat @ Butler-won
71 Memphis Sun @ Connecticut-lost
72 Utah St Sat @ Fresno St-Won
73 VCU Sat @ Richmond-Lost
74 Richmond Sat vs VCU-Won
75 Miss St Sat @ Arkansas-won
76 Tennessee Sat @ South Carolina-lost
77 Alabama Sat vs LSU-won
78 Minnesota Sun vs Iowa-lost
79 South Carolina Sat vs Tennessee-won
80 Oregon St Sat vs Colorado-lost
81 Texas Sat @ Iowa St-Lost
82 UNC Greensboro Sat @ Mercer-won
83 Notre Dame Sat @ Duke-Lost
84 Syracuse Sat @ Florida St- Lost
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2020 09:42 PM by stever20.)
02-14-2020 08:29 AM
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TheBasketBallOpinion Offline
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Post: #2
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
Would love to see UConn put together a run and hit the NIT. Think next year they have top 25 potential. Also can't wait to beat them twice a year.

It feels dirty but I am hoping Cuse wins this weekend?

Thanks for the list
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2020 10:14 AM by TheBasketBallOpinion.)
02-14-2020 10:13 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-14-2020 10:13 AM)TheBasketBallOpinion Wrote:  Would love to see UConn put together a run and hit the NIT. Think next year they have top 25 potential. Also can't wait to beat them twice a year.

It feels dirty but I am hoping Cuse wins this weekend?

Thanks for the list

If Uconn doesn't make the NIT- it'd be a real disappointment- final 5 games are- USF, UCF, @ ECU, Houston, @ Tulane.

Heck, you could make the case if they win out- they'd be 20-11. Make the AAC title game and they might get in..... the NCAA

Why would you be rooting for Syracuse? For a Georgetown fan- Syracuse isn't close enough to be a Q1 win- right now they're 69. No chance they get up to top 30. I guess to keep it Q2 maybe?

I will update the list colored green for wins and red for losses over the weekend...
02-14-2020 10:46 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Through today:

Last 4 Byes
Florida
Arizona State
Virginia
Rhode Island


Last 4 IN
Wichita State
NC State
Cincinnati
Arkansas

First 4 OUT
Stanford
Georgetown
Memphis
Utah State


Next 4 OUT
VCU
Richmond
Mississippi State
Tennessee


Memphis with another collapse late last night at Cincinnati. Tough to see them getting in now. Very disappointing season for them - especially for all of the hype and grandeur for Penny and his recruits he had coming in. Even with the win, Cincinnati is listed as (with Wichita State) one of the last four in.

VCU is interesting. They have Richmond, Dayton and SLU coming up. Strong opportunities to make a jump. The loss against George Mason was killer.

Georgetown can make some serious noise tomorrow against Butler, but with expected wins against Providence and DePaul, they still need at least two more from Nova, Creighton, Xavier and, gulp, Marquette.
02-14-2020 11:06 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-14-2020 11:06 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Through today:

Last 4 Byes
Florida
Arizona State
Virginia
Rhode Island


Last 4 IN
Wichita State
NC State
Cincinnati
Arkansas

First 4 OUT
Stanford
Georgetown
Memphis
Utah State


Next 4 OUT
VCU
Richmond
Mississippi State
Tennessee


Memphis with another collapse late last night at Cincinnati. Tough to see them getting in now. Very disappointing season for them - especially for all of the hype and grandeur for Penny and his recruits he had coming in. Even with the win, Cincinnati is listed as (with Wichita State) one of the last four in.

VCU is interesting. They have Richmond, Dayton and SLU coming up. Strong opportunities to make a jump. The loss against George Mason was killer.

Georgetown can make some serious noise tomorrow against Butler, but with expected wins against Providence and DePaul, they still need at least two more from Nova, Creighton, Xavier and, gulp, Marquette.

Memphis has a real chance to jump up if they can beat UConn. They still have 3 Q1 chances left. Get 2 of them and win everythign else and they're probably going to be in..
02-14-2020 11:36 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-14-2020 11:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 11:06 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Through today:

Last 4 Byes
Florida
Arizona State
Virginia
Rhode Island


Last 4 IN
Wichita State
NC State
Cincinnati
Arkansas

First 4 OUT
Stanford
Georgetown
Memphis
Utah State


Next 4 OUT
VCU
Richmond
Mississippi State
Tennessee


Memphis with another collapse late last night at Cincinnati. Tough to see them getting in now. Very disappointing season for them - especially for all of the hype and grandeur for Penny and his recruits he had coming in. Even with the win, Cincinnati is listed as (with Wichita State) one of the last four in.

VCU is interesting. They have Richmond, Dayton and SLU coming up. Strong opportunities to make a jump. The loss against George Mason was killer.

Georgetown can make some serious noise tomorrow against Butler, but with expected wins against Providence and DePaul, they still need at least two more from Nova, Creighton, Xavier and, gulp, Marquette.

Memphis has a real chance to jump up if they can beat UConn. They still have 3 Q1 chances left. Get 2 of them and win everythign else and they're probably going to be in..

But, any win they get against Houston and Wichita State hurts those programs seeding and/or bids (albeit, hurting/affecting the bid is unlikely). Right now, the highest seed is #8 Houston. Rough shape for the league. It'll be a miracle if any AAC program gets out of the first weekend.
(This post was last modified: 02-14-2020 12:04 PM by GoldenWarrior11.)
02-14-2020 12:03 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-14-2020 12:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 11:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 11:06 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Through today:

Last 4 Byes
Florida
Arizona State
Virginia
Rhode Island


Last 4 IN
Wichita State
NC State
Cincinnati
Arkansas

First 4 OUT
Stanford
Georgetown
Memphis
Utah State


Next 4 OUT
VCU
Richmond
Mississippi State
Tennessee


Memphis with another collapse late last night at Cincinnati. Tough to see them getting in now. Very disappointing season for them - especially for all of the hype and grandeur for Penny and his recruits he had coming in. Even with the win, Cincinnati is listed as (with Wichita State) one of the last four in.

VCU is interesting. They have Richmond, Dayton and SLU coming up. Strong opportunities to make a jump. The loss against George Mason was killer.

Georgetown can make some serious noise tomorrow against Butler, but with expected wins against Providence and DePaul, they still need at least two more from Nova, Creighton, Xavier and, gulp, Marquette.

Memphis has a real chance to jump up if they can beat UConn. They still have 3 Q1 chances left. Get 2 of them and win everythign else and they're probably going to be in..

But, any win they get against Houston and Wichita State hurts those programs seeding and/or bids (albeit, hurting/affecting the bid is unlikely). Right now, the highest seed is #8 Houston. Rough shape for the league. It'll be a miracle if any AAC program gets out of the first weekend.
UConn is a Q1 game. SMU is a Q1 game. Both Houston games are a Q1 game. If they can split with Houston and win both vs UConn and SMU- that's 3 more Q1 wins. giving them 5.

Houston may be a lot underseeded. They have 2 Q1 wins right now and are 9-3 away from home.... Still have 3 more chances left. If they win out- probably looking at a 5 or 6 seed at worst.. Even losing 1 game- probably like that... .
02-14-2020 12:27 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-14-2020 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 12:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 11:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 11:06 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Through today:

Last 4 Byes
Florida
Arizona State
Virginia
Rhode Island


Last 4 IN
Wichita State
NC State
Cincinnati
Arkansas

First 4 OUT
Stanford
Georgetown
Memphis
Utah State


Next 4 OUT
VCU
Richmond
Mississippi State
Tennessee


Memphis with another collapse late last night at Cincinnati. Tough to see them getting in now. Very disappointing season for them - especially for all of the hype and grandeur for Penny and his recruits he had coming in. Even with the win, Cincinnati is listed as (with Wichita State) one of the last four in.

VCU is interesting. They have Richmond, Dayton and SLU coming up. Strong opportunities to make a jump. The loss against George Mason was killer.

Georgetown can make some serious noise tomorrow against Butler, but with expected wins against Providence and DePaul, they still need at least two more from Nova, Creighton, Xavier and, gulp, Marquette.

Memphis has a real chance to jump up if they can beat UConn. They still have 3 Q1 chances left. Get 2 of them and win everythign else and they're probably going to be in..

But, any win they get against Houston and Wichita State hurts those programs seeding and/or bids (albeit, hurting/affecting the bid is unlikely). Right now, the highest seed is #8 Houston. Rough shape for the league. It'll be a miracle if any AAC program gets out of the first weekend.
UConn is a Q1 game. SMU is a Q1 game. Both Houston games are a Q1 game. If they can split with Houston and win both vs UConn and SMU- that's 3 more Q1 wins. giving them 5.

Houston may be a lot underseeded. They have 2 Q1 wins right now and are 9-3 away from home.... Still have 3 more chances left. If they win out- probably looking at a 5 or 6 seed at worst.. Even losing 1 game- probably like that... .

Still, a very disappointing and under-performing basketball season for the AAC. Only having one seed projected to be higher than than an #8 - for all of the fanfare and declarations entering this season - is a huge disappointment. The WCC could have as many bids as the AAC this year, with better seeds. The A10, too, will have Dayton as a top-3 seed. I mean, Memphis was being hyped as a Final Four contender, and they might not even make the tournament. That's disappointing no matter how you slice it.

Last time the AAC had an underwhelming season to enter the tournament, they added Wichita State.
02-14-2020 03:29 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-14-2020 03:29 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 12:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 11:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 11:06 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Through today:

Last 4 Byes
Florida
Arizona State
Virginia
Rhode Island


Last 4 IN
Wichita State
NC State
Cincinnati
Arkansas

First 4 OUT
Stanford
Georgetown
Memphis
Utah State


Next 4 OUT
VCU
Richmond
Mississippi State
Tennessee


Memphis with another collapse late last night at Cincinnati. Tough to see them getting in now. Very disappointing season for them - especially for all of the hype and grandeur for Penny and his recruits he had coming in. Even with the win, Cincinnati is listed as (with Wichita State) one of the last four in.

VCU is interesting. They have Richmond, Dayton and SLU coming up. Strong opportunities to make a jump. The loss against George Mason was killer.

Georgetown can make some serious noise tomorrow against Butler, but with expected wins against Providence and DePaul, they still need at least two more from Nova, Creighton, Xavier and, gulp, Marquette.

Memphis has a real chance to jump up if they can beat UConn. They still have 3 Q1 chances left. Get 2 of them and win everythign else and they're probably going to be in..

But, any win they get against Houston and Wichita State hurts those programs seeding and/or bids (albeit, hurting/affecting the bid is unlikely). Right now, the highest seed is #8 Houston. Rough shape for the league. It'll be a miracle if any AAC program gets out of the first weekend.
UConn is a Q1 game. SMU is a Q1 game. Both Houston games are a Q1 game. If they can split with Houston and win both vs UConn and SMU- that's 3 more Q1 wins. giving them 5.

Houston may be a lot underseeded. They have 2 Q1 wins right now and are 9-3 away from home.... Still have 3 more chances left. If they win out- probably looking at a 5 or 6 seed at worst.. Even losing 1 game- probably like that... .

Still, a very disappointing and under-performing basketball season for the AAC. Only having one seed projected to be higher than than an #8 - for all of the fanfare and declarations entering this season - is a huge disappointment. The WCC could have as many bids as the AAC this year, with better seeds. The A10, too, will have Dayton as a top-3 seed. I mean, Memphis was being hyped as a Final Four contender, and they might not even make the tournament. That's disappointing no matter how you slice it.

Last time the AAC had an underwhelming season to enter the tournament, they added Wichita State.

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC does add another bball school... VCU would make so much sense...

What's funny is while yes the end game results the AAC looks worse than last year- the league is deeper...
avg AAC team net-
2019- 98.83
2020- 96.25

Only 2 teams worse than 125. 186 Tulane, 211 East Carolina
last year 2 teams worse than 100. 258 ECU, 298 Tulane

It's possible that league doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 this year. That would be a pretty big development. If Tulane and ECU can improve more next year- that'd be huge.
02-14-2020 03:45 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
I'll weigh in here (and I use the AAC points for context related to past associations with BE teams in other leagues such as the former BE and The Great Midwest; I want to be respectful of this being a Big East board).

* The AAC this year has been a disappointment for various reasons but not a disaster. It has seven legitimately good teams. Still, the league continues to underachieve year in and out in hoops and you can't sugarcoat it.

* Memphis has struggled due to a myriad of problems — some self-inflicted (the Hardaway comment regarding the Final Four was simply boneheaded, while fans with outlandish expectations created unnecessary pressure on an extremely inexperienced team) and some unexpected (Wiseman leaving; Jeffries being out a good bit due to illness and, now, injury; Baugh being sick).

* On the Memphis theme, I was one of the first to scoff at those college hoops journalists who thought Memphis might be a Final Four team before the season started. Many Memphis fans, similarly, had unrealistic expectations.

* As a Cincy fan, I was pleased to see the big win last night (though it hurt as a Memphis fan, too). The Bearcats continue to improve (the recent UConn hiccup nothwithstanding).

* The Big East needs Xavier to surge. I don't see the other four having any shot. Six is the goal.

* Bracketville has Georgetown in the First Four Out. Would LOVE to see the Hoyas in the big dance (I've enjoyed following GU more this year than any since I started rooting for the program a few years ago). But, alas, I struggle to see GU landing a spot. It will have too many losses.

* DePaul has strongly disappointed me (I've posted this before). No excuse for some of the recent losses. I've sung Dave L.'s praises on CSNbbs this year but my patience is running thin.

* I honestly don't know what Big East team is the best at this point. I lean toward the Hall but ...

* I would pay money to see Stever20 and GW11 sit down together, drink three beers in 30 minutes and then get after it in a robust debate. I'll be the umpire.
02-14-2020 05:49 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-14-2020 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 03:29 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 12:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 11:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Memphis has a real chance to jump up if they can beat UConn. They still have 3 Q1 chances left. Get 2 of them and win everythign else and they're probably going to be in..

But, any win they get against Houston and Wichita State hurts those programs seeding and/or bids (albeit, hurting/affecting the bid is unlikely). Right now, the highest seed is #8 Houston. Rough shape for the league. It'll be a miracle if any AAC program gets out of the first weekend.
UConn is a Q1 game. SMU is a Q1 game. Both Houston games are a Q1 game. If they can split with Houston and win both vs UConn and SMU- that's 3 more Q1 wins. giving them 5.

Houston may be a lot underseeded. They have 2 Q1 wins right now and are 9-3 away from home.... Still have 3 more chances left. If they win out- probably looking at a 5 or 6 seed at worst.. Even losing 1 game- probably like that... .

Still, a very disappointing and under-performing basketball season for the AAC. Only having one seed projected to be higher than than an #8 - for all of the fanfare and declarations entering this season - is a huge disappointment. The WCC could have as many bids as the AAC this year, with better seeds. The A10, too, will have Dayton as a top-3 seed. I mean, Memphis was being hyped as a Final Four contender, and they might not even make the tournament. That's disappointing no matter how you slice it.

Last time the AAC had an underwhelming season to enter the tournament, they added Wichita State.

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC does add another bball school... VCU would make so much sense...

What's funny is while yes the end game results the AAC looks worse than last year- the league is deeper...
avg AAC team net-
2019- 98.83
2020- 96.25

Only 2 teams worse than 125. 186 Tulane, 211 East Carolina
last year 2 teams worse than 100. 258 ECU, 298 Tulane

It's possible that league doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 this year. That would be a pretty big development. If Tulane and ECU can improve more next year- that'd be huge.

I don't know... two percentage points doesn't necessarily show the league is "deeper" per se. The bottom isn't atrocious (specifically Tulane and ECU), but the top isn't as good as last year either.

The fact remains that AAC supporters/fans are still hoping for ECU and Tulane to "improve more next year" - something said annually since 2014. I did the tallies, from 1989 to 2019, AAC programs (minus UConn) average just over three bids per year into the tournament. The league definitely needs to add someone to help prop that up, but without an addition, three should be that bar each year. We can talk about "potential" and "improvement" all day, but a program's body of work is what it is. I think the expectations for AAC Basketball from 14-19 were artificially high to begin with, which is a reason for the magnitude of disappointment and underachieving results thus far.

The last time the AAC underperformed to this level, Wichita was added. However, the most likely candidate (VCU) isn't coming off a similar run. Additionally, there is no guarantee (yet) that an A10 program would leave for the AAC. Many assume that would be a slam dunk, but until it happens, it's all just hypothetical.
02-15-2020 08:50 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-15-2020 08:50 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 03:29 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 12:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  But, any win they get against Houston and Wichita State hurts those programs seeding and/or bids (albeit, hurting/affecting the bid is unlikely). Right now, the highest seed is #8 Houston. Rough shape for the league. It'll be a miracle if any AAC program gets out of the first weekend.
UConn is a Q1 game. SMU is a Q1 game. Both Houston games are a Q1 game. If they can split with Houston and win both vs UConn and SMU- that's 3 more Q1 wins. giving them 5.

Houston may be a lot underseeded. They have 2 Q1 wins right now and are 9-3 away from home.... Still have 3 more chances left. If they win out- probably looking at a 5 or 6 seed at worst.. Even losing 1 game- probably like that... .

Still, a very disappointing and under-performing basketball season for the AAC. Only having one seed projected to be higher than than an #8 - for all of the fanfare and declarations entering this season - is a huge disappointment. The WCC could have as many bids as the AAC this year, with better seeds. The A10, too, will have Dayton as a top-3 seed. I mean, Memphis was being hyped as a Final Four contender, and they might not even make the tournament. That's disappointing no matter how you slice it.

Last time the AAC had an underwhelming season to enter the tournament, they added Wichita State.

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC does add another bball school... VCU would make so much sense...

What's funny is while yes the end game results the AAC looks worse than last year- the league is deeper...
avg AAC team net-
2019- 98.83
2020- 96.25

Only 2 teams worse than 125. 186 Tulane, 211 East Carolina
last year 2 teams worse than 100. 258 ECU, 298 Tulane

It's possible that league doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 this year. That would be a pretty big development. If Tulane and ECU can improve more next year- that'd be huge.

I don't know... two percentage points doesn't necessarily show the league is "deeper" per se. The bottom isn't atrocious (specifically Tulane and ECU), but the top isn't as good as last year either.

The fact remains that AAC supporters/fans are still hoping for ECU and Tulane to "improve more next year" - something said annually since 2014. I did the tallies, from 1989 to 2019, AAC programs (minus UConn) average just over three bids per year into the tournament. The league definitely needs to add someone to help prop that up, but without an addition, three should be that bar each year. We can talk about "potential" and "improvement" all day, but a program's body of work is what it is. I think the expectations for AAC Basketball from 14-19 were artificially high to begin with, which is a reason for the magnitude of disappointment and underachieving results thus far.

The last time the AAC underperformed to this level, Wichita was added. However, the most likely candidate (VCU) isn't coming off a similar run. Additionally, there is no guarantee (yet) that an A10 program would leave for the AAC. Many assume that would be a slam dunk, but until it happens, it's all just hypothetical.


Both of you make some very good points. I tend to look at this as I did during my days following the old Metro/Great Midwest/CUSA days. In essence, it takes time for any relatively young league (and the American and the current Big East are "youthful") to fully establish itself.

The Big East is vastly "ahead" of the AAC in this respect but still not where it needs to be IF (a major if) we see, for example, the Big 12 splinter and only four comprehensive power leagues remain (with each having 14 or more programs). This is why (among other reasons) I would like to see both the BE and the AAC go to 14 teams.

The American, assuming it does not get raided, will likely add another program and it will be fine in hoops in the long run. It's not going to win a national title, but that's fine. VCU would make sense but the program that could bring all sports and be elevated quickly is Old Dominion.

I would also note it is important to use "some" or "many" when we reference fans of programs or leagues. I am not the typical AAC (or Big East) fan, and I don't want to be "lumped into" a group of unrealistic and/or homer-type folks.

That would be my main criticism of you, GW11 — though, to be fair, you have both 1. used qualifiers and 2. spoken very positively of the AAC in many of your posts.

Stever20, my criticism of you is that you sometimes take an "overly sunny" view of the AAC.

But both of you do an excellent job on this board and I strongly appreciate your contributes and respect your knowledge.

I'm sure you both have criticisms of me, and that's fine. When we debate on a message board, there will be some disagreements.

I wish we had more folks posting on the BE board.

Enjoy your day and good luck to the teams (pro and college) you support.
02-15-2020 10:14 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
I'd say that a chance that the AAC doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 is a pretty big development.. When they've been having teams 250+.... Hunter in 1st year at Tulane and Dooley at 2nd year in AAC....

Every program from CUSA is better now than when they entered the AAC except for Memphis. And they are going to be seeing their monies increase a lot here going forward.

I think it's a lock that a team gets invited to AAC from A10 they'd go. How much money does the A10 pay out? 1 million? The AAC is now clearly ahead of the A10. Even this year- the A10's avg team is 122.07 or 26 spots behind the AAC. And that's with a good year for the A10 relatively speaking.

The AAC has been weird in these 6 years. Never been able to quite put everything all together. Big difference there and the Big East IMO- Big East has always seemed to squeeze out more than it should....
02-15-2020 11:37 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-15-2020 11:37 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd say that a chance that the AAC doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 is a pretty big development.. When they've been having teams 250+.... Hunter in 1st year at Tulane and Dooley at 2nd year in AAC....

Every program from CUSA is better now than when they entered the AAC except for Memphis. And they are going to be seeing their monies increase a lot here going forward.

I think it's a lock that a team gets invited to AAC from A10 they'd go. How much money does the A10 pay out? 1 million? The AAC is now clearly ahead of the A10. Even this year- the A10's avg team is 122.07 or 26 spots behind the AAC. And that's with a good year for the A10 relatively speaking.

The AAC has been weird in these 6 years. Never been able to quite put everything all together. Big difference there and the Big East IMO- Big East has always seemed to squeeze out more than it should....

Well, take what gold stars you can, I suppose. Mike Dunleavy was supposed to turn things around at Tulane due to his NBA experience and connections. Joe Dooley already failed once at ECU (and Jeff Lebo came with fan fare after Auburn too). The reality is that ECU and Tulane have never been able to be consistently competitive men's basketball programs, and expecting them to both become that - IMO - is just unrealistic. They might have a solid season every now and then (maybe the ceiling is NIT), but history shows what kind of results to expect from them.

Regarding your C-USA statement - yes, every program is better off (the AAC is widely considered a step-up from C-USA). Houston is definitely better on the court (and appears to be consistent as well). SMU... time will tell. They gambled on Larry Brown, got penalized, and appear to be once again a non-tournament program. Tulsa is not better, nor worse, when they were in C-USA. UCF had a memorable season last year, but again, it doesn't appear that it will be sustained. Cincinnati has taken a step back from the BE, and USF is the same in the AAC as it was in the BE. In a long-winded summary, I would argue each of the programs (with exceptions to Houston and Memphis) is performing exactly where they have been (historically speaking).

Moving from the A10 to AAC, it is a widely assumed belief that a team would jump. I don't think it is entirely inaccurate. However, I asked on the realignment board what Wichita State's annual payouts are (compared to the A10 shares). No one was able to provide any reports as to what they are. I have no doubt that Wichita State is earning more than an A10 program, but I have questions about how much more it is.

The AAC has not been able to put things together this past six years, definite agree. However (and once again), the on-court results have been consistent with the AAC membership's historical trends with regards to men's basketball. Expecting all of them, or even a majority of them, to outperform historical expectations simply because a majority of them are in a new, elevated, league is simply unrealistic. You can argue that "everything has gone right" for the Big East these past few years, but 1) that follows the historical trends of many of the programs (Georgetown, St. John's and DePaul have all underperformed) and 2) all of the programs prioritize men's basketball (something few AAC programs have made the historical commitment to).
(This post was last modified: 02-15-2020 07:04 PM by GoldenWarrior11.)
02-15-2020 07:03 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-15-2020 10:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 08:50 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 03:29 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  UConn is a Q1 game. SMU is a Q1 game. Both Houston games are a Q1 game. If they can split with Houston and win both vs UConn and SMU- that's 3 more Q1 wins. giving them 5.

Houston may be a lot underseeded. They have 2 Q1 wins right now and are 9-3 away from home.... Still have 3 more chances left. If they win out- probably looking at a 5 or 6 seed at worst.. Even losing 1 game- probably like that... .

Still, a very disappointing and under-performing basketball season for the AAC. Only having one seed projected to be higher than than an #8 - for all of the fanfare and declarations entering this season - is a huge disappointment. The WCC could have as many bids as the AAC this year, with better seeds. The A10, too, will have Dayton as a top-3 seed. I mean, Memphis was being hyped as a Final Four contender, and they might not even make the tournament. That's disappointing no matter how you slice it.

Last time the AAC had an underwhelming season to enter the tournament, they added Wichita State.

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC does add another bball school... VCU would make so much sense...

What's funny is while yes the end game results the AAC looks worse than last year- the league is deeper...
avg AAC team net-
2019- 98.83
2020- 96.25

Only 2 teams worse than 125. 186 Tulane, 211 East Carolina
last year 2 teams worse than 100. 258 ECU, 298 Tulane

It's possible that league doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 this year. That would be a pretty big development. If Tulane and ECU can improve more next year- that'd be huge.

I don't know... two percentage points doesn't necessarily show the league is "deeper" per se. The bottom isn't atrocious (specifically Tulane and ECU), but the top isn't as good as last year either.

The fact remains that AAC supporters/fans are still hoping for ECU and Tulane to "improve more next year" - something said annually since 2014. I did the tallies, from 1989 to 2019, AAC programs (minus UConn) average just over three bids per year into the tournament. The league definitely needs to add someone to help prop that up, but without an addition, three should be that bar each year. We can talk about "potential" and "improvement" all day, but a program's body of work is what it is. I think the expectations for AAC Basketball from 14-19 were artificially high to begin with, which is a reason for the magnitude of disappointment and underachieving results thus far.

The last time the AAC underperformed to this level, Wichita was added. However, the most likely candidate (VCU) isn't coming off a similar run. Additionally, there is no guarantee (yet) that an A10 program would leave for the AAC. Many assume that would be a slam dunk, but until it happens, it's all just hypothetical.


Both of you make some very good points. I tend to look at this as I did during my days following the old Metro/Great Midwest/CUSA days. In essence, it takes time for any relatively young league (and the American and the current Big East are "youthful") to fully establish itself.

The Big East is vastly "ahead" of the AAC in this respect but still not where it needs to be IF (a major if) we see, for example, the Big 12 splinter and only four comprehensive power leagues remain (with each having 14 or more programs). This is why (among other reasons) I would like to see both the BE and the AAC go to 14 teams.

The American, assuming it does not get raided, will likely add another program and it will be fine in hoops in the long run. It's not going to win a national title, but that's fine. VCU would make sense but the program that could bring all sports and be elevated quickly is Old Dominion.

I would also note it is important to use "some" or "many" when we reference fans of programs or leagues. I am not the typical AAC (or Big East) fan, and I don't want to be "lumped into" a group of unrealistic and/or homer-type folks.

That would be my main criticism of you, GW11 — though, to be fair, you have both 1. used qualifiers and 2. spoken very positively of the AAC in many of your posts.

Stever20, my criticism of you is that you sometimes take an "overly sunny" view of the AAC.

But both of you do an excellent job on this board and I strongly appreciate your contributes and respect your knowledge.

I'm sure you both have criticisms of me, and that's fine. When we debate on a message board, there will be some disagreements.

I wish we had more folks posting on the BE board.

Enjoy your day and good luck to the teams (pro and college) you support.

No criticisms to you or any other poster here, Bill. Good luck to DePaul tonight. 04-cheers
02-15-2020 07:05 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-15-2020 07:05 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 10:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 08:50 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 03:29 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Still, a very disappointing and under-performing basketball season for the AAC. Only having one seed projected to be higher than than an #8 - for all of the fanfare and declarations entering this season - is a huge disappointment. The WCC could have as many bids as the AAC this year, with better seeds. The A10, too, will have Dayton as a top-3 seed. I mean, Memphis was being hyped as a Final Four contender, and they might not even make the tournament. That's disappointing no matter how you slice it.

Last time the AAC had an underwhelming season to enter the tournament, they added Wichita State.

Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC does add another bball school... VCU would make so much sense...

What's funny is while yes the end game results the AAC looks worse than last year- the league is deeper...
avg AAC team net-
2019- 98.83
2020- 96.25

Only 2 teams worse than 125. 186 Tulane, 211 East Carolina
last year 2 teams worse than 100. 258 ECU, 298 Tulane

It's possible that league doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 this year. That would be a pretty big development. If Tulane and ECU can improve more next year- that'd be huge.

I don't know... two percentage points doesn't necessarily show the league is "deeper" per se. The bottom isn't atrocious (specifically Tulane and ECU), but the top isn't as good as last year either.

The fact remains that AAC supporters/fans are still hoping for ECU and Tulane to "improve more next year" - something said annually since 2014. I did the tallies, from 1989 to 2019, AAC programs (minus UConn) average just over three bids per year into the tournament. The league definitely needs to add someone to help prop that up, but without an addition, three should be that bar each year. We can talk about "potential" and "improvement" all day, but a program's body of work is what it is. I think the expectations for AAC Basketball from 14-19 were artificially high to begin with, which is a reason for the magnitude of disappointment and underachieving results thus far.

The last time the AAC underperformed to this level, Wichita was added. However, the most likely candidate (VCU) isn't coming off a similar run. Additionally, there is no guarantee (yet) that an A10 program would leave for the AAC. Many assume that would be a slam dunk, but until it happens, it's all just hypothetical.


Both of you make some very good points. I tend to look at this as I did during my days following the old Metro/Great Midwest/CUSA days. In essence, it takes time for any relatively young league (and the American and the current Big East are "youthful") to fully establish itself.

The Big East is vastly "ahead" of the AAC in this respect but still not where it needs to be IF (a major if) we see, for example, the Big 12 splinter and only four comprehensive power leagues remain (with each having 14 or more programs). This is why (among other reasons) I would like to see both the BE and the AAC go to 14 teams.

The American, assuming it does not get raided, will likely add another program and it will be fine in hoops in the long run. It's not going to win a national title, but that's fine. VCU would make sense but the program that could bring all sports and be elevated quickly is Old Dominion.

I would also note it is important to use "some" or "many" when we reference fans of programs or leagues. I am not the typical AAC (or Big East) fan, and I don't want to be "lumped into" a group of unrealistic and/or homer-type folks.

That would be my main criticism of you, GW11 — though, to be fair, you have both 1. used qualifiers and 2. spoken very positively of the AAC in many of your posts.

Stever20, my criticism of you is that you sometimes take an "overly sunny" view of the AAC.

But both of you do an excellent job on this board and I strongly appreciate your contributes and respect your knowledge.

I'm sure you both have criticisms of me, and that's fine. When we debate on a message board, there will be some disagreements.

I wish we had more folks posting on the BE board.

Enjoy your day and good luck to the teams (pro and college) you support.

No criticisms to you or any other poster here, Bill. Good luck to DePaul tonight. 04-cheers


Thanks, GW11. As we now know (and after your well wishes, which I appreciate), DePaul got pounded. Seven straight losses. Brutal.

Marquette with a big one vs. Creighton this Tuesday. Good luck.
02-16-2020 10:26 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-16-2020 10:26 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 07:05 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 10:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 08:50 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-14-2020 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC does add another bball school... VCU would make so much sense...

What's funny is while yes the end game results the AAC looks worse than last year- the league is deeper...
avg AAC team net-
2019- 98.83
2020- 96.25

Only 2 teams worse than 125. 186 Tulane, 211 East Carolina
last year 2 teams worse than 100. 258 ECU, 298 Tulane

It's possible that league doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 this year. That would be a pretty big development. If Tulane and ECU can improve more next year- that'd be huge.

I don't know... two percentage points doesn't necessarily show the league is "deeper" per se. The bottom isn't atrocious (specifically Tulane and ECU), but the top isn't as good as last year either.

The fact remains that AAC supporters/fans are still hoping for ECU and Tulane to "improve more next year" - something said annually since 2014. I did the tallies, from 1989 to 2019, AAC programs (minus UConn) average just over three bids per year into the tournament. The league definitely needs to add someone to help prop that up, but without an addition, three should be that bar each year. We can talk about "potential" and "improvement" all day, but a program's body of work is what it is. I think the expectations for AAC Basketball from 14-19 were artificially high to begin with, which is a reason for the magnitude of disappointment and underachieving results thus far.

The last time the AAC underperformed to this level, Wichita was added. However, the most likely candidate (VCU) isn't coming off a similar run. Additionally, there is no guarantee (yet) that an A10 program would leave for the AAC. Many assume that would be a slam dunk, but until it happens, it's all just hypothetical.


Both of you make some very good points. I tend to look at this as I did during my days following the old Metro/Great Midwest/CUSA days. In essence, it takes time for any relatively young league (and the American and the current Big East are "youthful") to fully establish itself.

The Big East is vastly "ahead" of the AAC in this respect but still not where it needs to be IF (a major if) we see, for example, the Big 12 splinter and only four comprehensive power leagues remain (with each having 14 or more programs). This is why (among other reasons) I would like to see both the BE and the AAC go to 14 teams.

The American, assuming it does not get raided, will likely add another program and it will be fine in hoops in the long run. It's not going to win a national title, but that's fine. VCU would make sense but the program that could bring all sports and be elevated quickly is Old Dominion.

I would also note it is important to use "some" or "many" when we reference fans of programs or leagues. I am not the typical AAC (or Big East) fan, and I don't want to be "lumped into" a group of unrealistic and/or homer-type folks.

That would be my main criticism of you, GW11 — though, to be fair, you have both 1. used qualifiers and 2. spoken very positively of the AAC in many of your posts.

Stever20, my criticism of you is that you sometimes take an "overly sunny" view of the AAC.

But both of you do an excellent job on this board and I strongly appreciate your contributes and respect your knowledge.

I'm sure you both have criticisms of me, and that's fine. When we debate on a message board, there will be some disagreements.

I wish we had more folks posting on the BE board.

Enjoy your day and good luck to the teams (pro and college) you support.

No criticisms to you or any other poster here, Bill. Good luck to DePaul tonight. 04-cheers


Thanks, GW11. As we now know (and after your well wishes, which I appreciate), DePaul got pounded. Seven straight losses. Brutal.

Marquette with a big one vs. Creighton this Tuesday. Good luck.

This was from a few weeks ago, but interesting nevertheless...

02-16-2020 10:41 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
so the 32 teams goes a total of 16-15 this weekend.

probably the worst loss was tonight NC State losing to Boston College or yesterday with Texas getting rolled by Iowa State.....

Georgetown with IMO by far the biggest win of the weekend.
02-16-2020 09:54 PM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #19
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-16-2020 10:41 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-16-2020 10:26 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 07:05 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 10:14 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  
(02-15-2020 08:50 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I don't know... two percentage points doesn't necessarily show the league is "deeper" per se. The bottom isn't atrocious (specifically Tulane and ECU), but the top isn't as good as last year either.

The fact remains that AAC supporters/fans are still hoping for ECU and Tulane to "improve more next year" - something said annually since 2014. I did the tallies, from 1989 to 2019, AAC programs (minus UConn) average just over three bids per year into the tournament. The league definitely needs to add someone to help prop that up, but without an addition, three should be that bar each year. We can talk about "potential" and "improvement" all day, but a program's body of work is what it is. I think the expectations for AAC Basketball from 14-19 were artificially high to begin with, which is a reason for the magnitude of disappointment and underachieving results thus far.

The last time the AAC underperformed to this level, Wichita was added. However, the most likely candidate (VCU) isn't coming off a similar run. Additionally, there is no guarantee (yet) that an A10 program would leave for the AAC. Many assume that would be a slam dunk, but until it happens, it's all just hypothetical.


Both of you make some very good points. I tend to look at this as I did during my days following the old Metro/Great Midwest/CUSA days. In essence, it takes time for any relatively young league (and the American and the current Big East are "youthful") to fully establish itself.

The Big East is vastly "ahead" of the AAC in this respect but still not where it needs to be IF (a major if) we see, for example, the Big 12 splinter and only four comprehensive power leagues remain (with each having 14 or more programs). This is why (among other reasons) I would like to see both the BE and the AAC go to 14 teams.

The American, assuming it does not get raided, will likely add another program and it will be fine in hoops in the long run. It's not going to win a national title, but that's fine. VCU would make sense but the program that could bring all sports and be elevated quickly is Old Dominion.

I would also note it is important to use "some" or "many" when we reference fans of programs or leagues. I am not the typical AAC (or Big East) fan, and I don't want to be "lumped into" a group of unrealistic and/or homer-type folks.

That would be my main criticism of you, GW11 — though, to be fair, you have both 1. used qualifiers and 2. spoken very positively of the AAC in many of your posts.

Stever20, my criticism of you is that you sometimes take an "overly sunny" view of the AAC.

But both of you do an excellent job on this board and I strongly appreciate your contributes and respect your knowledge.

I'm sure you both have criticisms of me, and that's fine. When we debate on a message board, there will be some disagreements.

I wish we had more folks posting on the BE board.

Enjoy your day and good luck to the teams (pro and college) you support.

No criticisms to you or any other poster here, Bill. Good luck to DePaul tonight. 04-cheers


Thanks, GW11. As we now know (and after your well wishes, which I appreciate), DePaul got pounded. Seven straight losses. Brutal.

Marquette with a big one vs. Creighton this Tuesday. Good luck.

This was from a few weeks ago, but interesting nevertheless...



It seems Dave L. is in trouble. here is another one (though I have no idea how "connected" this writer is):

https://www.coachesdatabase.com/hot-seat-report/
02-17-2020 09:05 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Bubble Watch 2020
(02-16-2020 09:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so the 32 teams goes a total of 16-15 this weekend.

probably the worst loss was tonight NC State losing to Boston College or yesterday with Texas getting rolled by Iowa State.....

Georgetown with IMO by far the biggest win of the weekend.


I follow N.C. State loosely (my sister attended) and the loss to BC was embarrassing. The Pack has been wildly inconsistent this year.

Agree fully on the Georgetown victory. Nobody saw that coming.

This season is wide open.
02-17-2020 09:07 AM
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