(02-15-2020 08:50 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: (02-14-2020 03:45 PM)stever20 Wrote: (02-14-2020 03:29 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: (02-14-2020 12:27 PM)stever20 Wrote: (02-14-2020 12:03 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote: But, any win they get against Houston and Wichita State hurts those programs seeding and/or bids (albeit, hurting/affecting the bid is unlikely). Right now, the highest seed is #8 Houston. Rough shape for the league. It'll be a miracle if any AAC program gets out of the first weekend.
UConn is a Q1 game. SMU is a Q1 game. Both Houston games are a Q1 game. If they can split with Houston and win both vs UConn and SMU- that's 3 more Q1 wins. giving them 5.
Houston may be a lot underseeded. They have 2 Q1 wins right now and are 9-3 away from home.... Still have 3 more chances left. If they win out- probably looking at a 5 or 6 seed at worst.. Even losing 1 game- probably like that... .
Still, a very disappointing and under-performing basketball season for the AAC. Only having one seed projected to be higher than than an #8 - for all of the fanfare and declarations entering this season - is a huge disappointment. The WCC could have as many bids as the AAC this year, with better seeds. The A10, too, will have Dayton as a top-3 seed. I mean, Memphis was being hyped as a Final Four contender, and they might not even make the tournament. That's disappointing no matter how you slice it.
Last time the AAC had an underwhelming season to enter the tournament, they added Wichita State.
Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked if the AAC does add another bball school... VCU would make so much sense...
What's funny is while yes the end game results the AAC looks worse than last year- the league is deeper...
avg AAC team net-
2019- 98.83
2020- 96.25
Only 2 teams worse than 125. 186 Tulane, 211 East Carolina
last year 2 teams worse than 100. 258 ECU, 298 Tulane
It's possible that league doesn't have a single team outside the top 200 this year. That would be a pretty big development. If Tulane and ECU can improve more next year- that'd be huge.
I don't know... two percentage points doesn't necessarily show the league is "deeper" per se. The bottom isn't atrocious (specifically Tulane and ECU), but the top isn't as good as last year either.
The fact remains that AAC supporters/fans are still hoping for ECU and Tulane to "improve more next year" - something said annually since 2014. I did the tallies, from 1989 to 2019, AAC programs (minus UConn) average just over three bids per year into the tournament. The league definitely needs to add someone to help prop that up, but without an addition, three should be that bar each year. We can talk about "potential" and "improvement" all day, but a program's body of work is what it is. I think the expectations for AAC Basketball from 14-19 were artificially high to begin with, which is a reason for the magnitude of disappointment and underachieving results thus far.
The last time the AAC underperformed to this level, Wichita was added. However, the most likely candidate (VCU) isn't coming off a similar run. Additionally, there is no guarantee (yet) that an A10 program would leave for the AAC. Many assume that would be a slam dunk, but until it happens, it's all just hypothetical.
Both of you make some very good points. I tend to look at this as I did during my days following the old Metro/Great Midwest/CUSA days. In essence, it takes time for any relatively young league (and the American and the current Big East are "youthful") to fully establish itself.
The Big East is vastly "ahead" of the AAC in this respect but still not where it needs to be IF (a major if) we see, for example, the Big 12 splinter and only four comprehensive power leagues remain (with each having 14 or more programs). This is why (among other reasons) I would like to see both the BE and the AAC go to 14 teams.
The American, assuming it does not get raided, will likely add another program and it will be fine in hoops in the long run. It's not going to win a national title, but that's fine. VCU would make sense but the program that could bring all sports and be elevated quickly is Old Dominion.
I would also note it is important to use "some" or "many" when we reference fans of programs or leagues. I am not the typical AAC (or Big East) fan, and I don't want to be "lumped into" a group of unrealistic and/or homer-type folks.
That would be my main criticism of you, GW11 — though, to be fair, you have both 1. used qualifiers and 2. spoken very positively of the AAC in many of your posts.
Stever20, my criticism of you is that you sometimes take an "overly sunny" view of the AAC.
But both of you do an excellent job on this board and I strongly appreciate your contributes and respect your knowledge.
I'm sure you both have criticisms of me, and that's fine. When we debate on a message board, there will be some disagreements.
I wish we had more folks posting on the BE board.
Enjoy your day and good luck to the teams (pro and college) you support.