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New FBS programs in the coming decade
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BruceMcF Online
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Post: #61
RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-07-2020 03:04 PM)e-parade Wrote:  Also "A-10 continues to fade" is a bit much.

But it's stated as a premise, not as a prediction. As a premise it's a BIT unrealistic, but not as bad as claiming that "probably" it will happen over the next decade.

I don't think it's likely that the A-10 is on a trajectory to decline to the level of the current MAC. Certainly not quickly, since if there is a "fade", it's from a regular multiple-at-large-bid conference to a conference with regular at-large bids in the Tourney.

That is not one step above the MAC, it's two, since the MAC would have to step up to have regular at-large bids to the NIT first, before it stepped up to having a regular series of at-large bids.

The A-10 dropping those two steps in a single decade is a bit much. If parity is going to happen in a mere 10 years, not only would the A-10 have to "continue to fade", but the MAC would have to lift its game as well ... and there is no strong evidence of that happening (though as a Kent State fan, it would surely be nice if it did).

Take on top of that these trends are based on very few actual observations over time. It could just as easily be that the A-10 has had a bit of bad luck and when things regress to the mean, they return to having regular multiple at-large bids.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2020 05:46 AM by BruceMcF.)
02-08-2020 05:35 AM
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sierrajip Offline
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
GSU, anyone? C'mon.
02-08-2020 07:10 AM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-07-2020 02:15 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 02:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 01:06 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 09:13 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The P5 don’t want to see anymore schools added to FBS. The G5 conferences are acutely aware of this and fearing the kind of culling of the herd that occurred in 1978-1984 they will doing their best to keep the flow of upgrades to a trickle if not a complete end.

Says who?

If I'm the P5 I'm hoping the non-power 5 keeps expanding so that it drives down the ever-increasing buy-game market.

The more FBS schools the more CFP money that has to be shared.

Also, if you can schedule JMU for a body bag game for $500K why would you want them to move up and make the cost of that game more than $1M?

Hmmm... my understanding is that the CFP splits between the P5 and G5 are largely separate. So, the P5 gets their take and then they leave it up to the G5 to split the rest to however they see fit. This means that additional G5 members (at least to my knowledge) don't do anything to the change the P5 CFP revenue.

Also, it's not about the price for a specific school like (in your example) JMU. Hypothetically, a P5 school can schedule an FCS JMU for $500,000 and an FBS MAC team for $1 million in today's world. What Kaplony is arguing (and I somewhat agree with him) is that bringing in more FBS G5 schools could mean that same P5 school could schedule a different FCS team for $500,000 and then an FBS JMU team for, say, $750,000. That P5 school is better off in the latter scenario.

It's not about the price for JMU specifically (where an FCS team is almost always more expensive than an FBS team), but rather what it does to drive the overall prices down for the entire ecosystem of FBS buy games.

My only question is why the A5 haven't broken apart from the G whatever. The need to see what is in the future is in the networks. The CFP ratings will tell all. Having limited playoff players from the only certain conferences have a drag on those ratings.
02-08-2020 07:28 AM
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BruceMcF Online
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Post: #64
RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-08-2020 07:28 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  My only question is why the A5 haven't broken apart from the G whatever.

That they haven't says it's not in their interests to do so. Why it's not in their interests to do so? Well, every supporter of every P5 school would prefer every game to be a home game where they beat another P5 school ... but that isn't mathematically possible. The net record of P5 schools against each other is going to be 0.500 and you have to give them home games for them to give you home games.

If the P5 wants to give their supporters more home wins, they need to keep the Go5 around as pro forma members of the same level.
02-08-2020 02:10 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-08-2020 07:28 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 02:15 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 02:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 01:06 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 09:13 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The P5 don’t want to see anymore schools added to FBS. The G5 conferences are acutely aware of this and fearing the kind of culling of the herd that occurred in 1978-1984 they will doing their best to keep the flow of upgrades to a trickle if not a complete end.

Says who?

If I'm the P5 I'm hoping the non-power 5 keeps expanding so that it drives down the ever-increasing buy-game market.

The more FBS schools the more CFP money that has to be shared.

Also, if you can schedule JMU for a body bag game for $500K why would you want them to move up and make the cost of that game more than $1M?

Hmmm... my understanding is that the CFP splits between the P5 and G5 are largely separate. So, the P5 gets their take and then they leave it up to the G5 to split the rest to however they see fit. This means that additional G5 members (at least to my knowledge) don't do anything to the change the P5 CFP revenue.

Also, it's not about the price for a specific school like (in your example) JMU. Hypothetically, a P5 school can schedule an FCS JMU for $500,000 and an FBS MAC team for $1 million in today's world. What Kaplony is arguing (and I somewhat agree with him) is that bringing in more FBS G5 schools could mean that same P5 school could schedule a different FCS team for $500,000 and then an FBS JMU team for, say, $750,000. That P5 school is better off in the latter scenario.

It's not about the price for JMU specifically (where an FCS team is almost always more expensive than an FBS team), but rather what it does to drive the overall prices down for the entire ecosystem of FBS buy games.

My only question is why the A5 haven't broken apart from the G whatever. The need to see what is in the future is in the networks. The CFP ratings will tell all. Having limited playoff players from the only certain conferences have a drag on those ratings.


There are still some G5 schools that still get good ratings. Sometimes better than some P5 schools.
02-08-2020 02:22 PM
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Post: #66
RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-07-2020 03:59 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:45 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:04 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 02:00 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 10:27 AM)bullet Wrote:  If the Atlantic 10 continues to fade in basketball, it seems more likely the MAC would add UMass and then offer UConn for football only.

That would be huge for both the MAC and UConn. Those two could become legit football rivals.

We're already scheduling to play every season.

Also "A-10 continues to fade" is a bit much. Is it the heyday? No, but still clearly in the mix for top non-Power conferences and can have top seeds in the tournament (Dayton projects to be a 2 seed, and at this point there are likely going to be 3 A10 teams, and maybe a 4th if a bid is stolen in the conference tournament).

Dayton and St. Louis have good facilities. But most of the Atlantic 10 plays in gyms that would embarrass an Indiana high school. So if they don't have consistently stronger programs than the MAC, there's no reason for UMass to stay.

I'd take Dayton, VCU, St. Louis, Richmond, Rhode Island and Davidson over any MAC program every day. St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's and GW are probably at the top tier of MAC schools, and George Mason and Duquesne aren't far behind (the Duquesne coach left FROM the MAC to be there). The MAC hasn't had an at-large team since 1999. The A-10 could have as many as four this season if everything breaks their way, but they'll have at least one and probably more.

The A-10 is significantly better than the MAC, has been for a long time and will be for the foreseeable future. There's a reason UMass left the MAC in football instead of the A-10 in everything else.

Historically, yes. But this year Sagarin has the MAC at #11 at 74.35 and A10 at 12 at 73.25. As I recall, the MAC was rated higher than the A10 last year as well. And historically, the A10 had Temple, UNCC and Xavier and also Butler for a short time.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2020 02:43 PM by bullet.)
02-08-2020 02:41 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #67
RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-08-2020 02:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:59 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:45 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:04 PM)e-parade Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 02:00 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  That would be huge for both the MAC and UConn. Those two could become legit football rivals.

We're already scheduling to play every season.

Also "A-10 continues to fade" is a bit much. Is it the heyday? No, but still clearly in the mix for top non-Power conferences and can have top seeds in the tournament (Dayton projects to be a 2 seed, and at this point there are likely going to be 3 A10 teams, and maybe a 4th if a bid is stolen in the conference tournament).

Dayton and St. Louis have good facilities. But most of the Atlantic 10 plays in gyms that would embarrass an Indiana high school. So if they don't have consistently stronger programs than the MAC, there's no reason for UMass to stay.

I'd take Dayton, VCU, St. Louis, Richmond, Rhode Island and Davidson over any MAC program every day. St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's and GW are probably at the top tier of MAC schools, and George Mason and Duquesne aren't far behind (the Duquesne coach left FROM the MAC to be there). The MAC hasn't had an at-large team since 1999. The A-10 could have as many as four this season if everything breaks their way, but they'll have at least one and probably more.

The A-10 is significantly better than the MAC, has been for a long time and will be for the foreseeable future. There's a reason UMass left the MAC in football instead of the A-10 in everything else.

Historically, yes. But this year Sagarin has the MAC at #11 at 74.35 and A10 at 12 at 73.25. As I recall, the MAC was rated higher than the A10 last year as well. And historically, the A10 had Temple, UNCC and Xavier and also Butler for a short time.

Sagarin has seven A-10 teams ranked in the Top 100, compared with one (Akron) from the MAC. Last year the A-10 was clearly down with only 3 Top 100 teams, while the MAC was stronger than usual with two such teams. But nobody who knows anything about college hoops will say that the MAC is on A-10's level.
02-08-2020 04:32 PM
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Minutemen429 Offline
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Post: #68
RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-08-2020 05:35 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:04 PM)e-parade Wrote:  Also "A-10 continues to fade" is a bit much.

But it's stated as a premise, not as a prediction. As a premise it's a BIT unrealistic, but not as bad as claiming that "probably" it will happen over the next decade.

I don't think it's likely that the A-10 is on a trajectory to decline to the level of the current MAC. Certainly not quickly, since if there is a "fade", it's from a regular multiple-at-large-bid conference to a conference with regular at-large bids in the Tourney.

That is not one step above the MAC, it's two, since the MAC would have to step up to have regular at-large bids to the NIT first, before it stepped up to having a regular series of at-large bids.

The A-10 dropping those two steps in a single decade is a bit much. If parity is going to happen in a mere 10 years, not only would the A-10 have to "continue to fade", but the MAC would have to lift its game as well ... and there is no strong evidence of that happening (though as a Kent State fan, it would surely be nice if it did).

Take on top of that these trends are based on very few actual observations over time. It could just as easily be that the A-10 has had a bit of bad luck and when things regress to the mean, they return to having regular multiple at-large bids.

We've (UMass) have been bad for a while but we still recruit OK 247 #72 right now. I don't think the A-10 is going down. URI lost their coach to UConn but they are still doing well on recruiting.
02-08-2020 05:46 PM
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Post: #69
RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-07-2020 01:43 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  
(02-06-2020 11:05 PM)BraveKnight Wrote:  Schools with the potential to move now:
NDSU
SDSU
Montana
Montana State
Delaware
Missouri State
JMU

Schools with the potential to move in a decade or so with more investment and success:
New Hampshire
Maine
Rhode Island
NC A&T
FAMU

I think the Dakotas are a lot like the Montana schools: they're happy in FCS. Delaware would be the same story. URI has no desire for FBS,.nor does New Hampshire. Maine, while a good program, falls in line with the Dakotas and the Montanas- happy in FCS. Now NC A&T could be a possibility, as well as Mizzou State & JMU. Dunno about FAMU.
I meant if they really invested and committed to the program they could have the potential to move. UNH, Maine, and URI are state flagships and have the potential to be good programs if they only put more into athletics.
02-08-2020 08:48 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
Even as an A10 fan, I have a sliver of concern about a significant shakeup for the conference. Not that the conference itself dies, but that it will permanently join the ranks of the single-bid population.

At best, a raided A10 stands pat, but probably without one or two of its best contributors. At worst, it becomes a more identifiable CAA or MAAC hybrid.
02-09-2020 10:45 AM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-08-2020 04:32 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-08-2020 02:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:59 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:45 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-07-2020 03:04 PM)e-parade Wrote:  We're already scheduling to play every season.

Also "A-10 continues to fade" is a bit much. Is it the heyday? No, but still clearly in the mix for top non-Power conferences and can have top seeds in the tournament (Dayton projects to be a 2 seed, and at this point there are likely going to be 3 A10 teams, and maybe a 4th if a bid is stolen in the conference tournament).

Dayton and St. Louis have good facilities. But most of the Atlantic 10 plays in gyms that would embarrass an Indiana high school. So if they don't have consistently stronger programs than the MAC, there's no reason for UMass to stay.

I'd take Dayton, VCU, St. Louis, Richmond, Rhode Island and Davidson over any MAC program every day. St. Bonaventure, St. Joseph's and GW are probably at the top tier of MAC schools, and George Mason and Duquesne aren't far behind (the Duquesne coach left FROM the MAC to be there). The MAC hasn't had an at-large team since 1999. The A-10 could have as many as four this season if everything breaks their way, but they'll have at least one and probably more.

The A-10 is significantly better than the MAC, has been for a long time and will be for the foreseeable future. There's a reason UMass left the MAC in football instead of the A-10 in everything else.

Historically, yes. But this year Sagarin has the MAC at #11 at 74.35 and A10 at 12 at 73.25. As I recall, the MAC was rated higher than the A10 last year as well. And historically, the A10 had Temple, UNCC and Xavier and also Butler for a short time.

Sagarin has seven A-10 teams ranked in the Top 100, compared with one (Akron) from the MAC. Last year the A-10 was clearly down with only 3 Top 100 teams, while the MAC was stronger than usual with two such teams. But nobody who knows anything about college hoops will say that the MAC is on A-10's level.

And the Atlantic 10 has 2 in the bottom 100 and the MAC has none.
The last two years the MAC has clearly been on the A10s level. That is not typical, but it raises the question of what the trends will be. Most of the A10 schools have very little fan support.
02-09-2020 12:06 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-09-2020 10:45 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Even as an A10 fan, I have a sliver of concern about a significant shakeup for the conference. Not that the conference itself dies, but that it will permanently join the ranks of the single-bid population.

At best, a raided A10 stands pat, but probably without one or two of its best contributors. At worst, it becomes a more identifiable CAA or MAAC hybrid.

I could see the AAC going after Dayton. And would St. Louis stay with the westernmost other program being in Pittsburgh?
02-09-2020 12:07 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
Well, A-10 ias already a hybrid league. I could see the football schools leave to form a all sports conference with football. The problem you have are the stubborn non-football schools.
02-09-2020 01:46 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
This exchange clearly explains what is going on.

(02-08-2020 02:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  Historically, yes. But this year Sagarin has the MAC at #11 at 74.35 and A10 at 12 at 73.25. As I recall, the MAC was rated higher than the A10 last year as well. And historically, the A10 had Temple, UNCC and Xavier and also Butler for a short time.

(02-08-2020 04:32 PM)ken d Wrote:  Sagarin has seven A-10 teams ranked in the Top 100, compared with one (Akron) from the MAC. ... But nobody who knows anything about college hoops will say that the MAC is on A-10's level.

(02-09-2020 12:06 PM)bullet Wrote:  And the Atlantic 10 has 2 in the bottom 100 and the MAC has none.

The last two years the MAC has clearly been on the A10s level. That is not typical, but it raises the question of what the trends will be. Most of the A10 schools have very little fan support.

Basketball fans do not judge a conference by it's typical or average level of play, like the Sagarin rankings try to do, but by the level of play of it's top echelon ... say, it's top quartile.

Because its not conferences that are selected to go to the Tourney, it's teams.

If you did a "basketball fan" weighted rating, it would NOT be a simple average, or a median weighted averaged, it would be more like 14 or 12 points times the ranking of the top school, down to 1 point times the ranking of the bottom school, divided by the total number of points (/78 for the 12 schools in the MAC, /105 for the 14 schools in the A10), and the A10 would come out on top of that ranking.
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2020 02:04 PM by BruceMcF.)
02-09-2020 01:59 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-09-2020 01:59 PM)BruceMcF Wrote:  This exchange clearly explains what is going on.

(02-08-2020 02:41 PM)bullet Wrote:  Historically, yes. But this year Sagarin has the MAC at #11 at 74.35 and A10 at 12 at 73.25. As I recall, the MAC was rated higher than the A10 last year as well. And historically, the A10 had Temple, UNCC and Xavier and also Butler for a short time.

(02-08-2020 04:32 PM)ken d Wrote:  Sagarin has seven A-10 teams ranked in the Top 100, compared with one (Akron) from the MAC. ... But nobody who knows anything about college hoops will say that the MAC is on A-10's level.

(02-09-2020 12:06 PM)bullet Wrote:  And the Atlantic 10 has 2 in the bottom 100 and the MAC has none.

The last two years the MAC has clearly been on the A10s level. That is not typical, but it raises the question of what the trends will be. Most of the A10 schools have very little fan support.

Basketball fans do not judge a conference by it's typical or average level of play, like the Sagarin rankings try to do, but by the level of play of it's top echelon ... say, it's top quartile.

Because its not conferences that are selected to go to the Tourney, it's teams.

If you did a "basketball fan" weighted rating, it would NOT be a simple average, or a median weighted averaged, it would be more like 14 or 12 points times the ranking of the top school, down to 1 point times the ranking of the bottom school, divided by the total number of points (/78 for the 12 schools in the MAC, /105 for the 14 schools in the A10), and the A10 would come out on top of that ranking.

But from the standpoint of the tourney, those bottom teams drag down the strength of schedule for the wild card berths.
02-09-2020 04:05 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
Is it even a question? The A10 will get multiple at-larges and the MAC will get none.
02-09-2020 05:34 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
The committee is going to have a tough time with the A10 beyond Dayton. Rhodie is only some good losses and two games over VCU. VCU is just that LSU win.

If they get three, I would be stunned. Then again, you have some teams elsewhere playing themselves out of this thing. Wichita comes to mind...
02-09-2020 07:21 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-09-2020 12:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-09-2020 10:45 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Even as an A10 fan, I have a sliver of concern about a significant shakeup for the conference. Not that the conference itself dies, but that it will permanently join the ranks of the single-bid population.

At best, a raided A10 stands pat, but probably without one or two of its best contributors. At worst, it becomes a more identifiable CAA or MAAC hybrid.

I could see the AAC going after Dayton. And would St. Louis stay with the westernmost other program being in Pittsburgh?

Where would they go? To them, MVC is a downgrade.
02-09-2020 07:23 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-09-2020 07:23 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-09-2020 12:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-09-2020 10:45 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Even as an A10 fan, I have a sliver of concern about a significant shakeup for the conference. Not that the conference itself dies, but that it will permanently join the ranks of the single-bid population.

At best, a raided A10 stands pat, but probably without one or two of its best contributors. At worst, it becomes a more identifiable CAA or MAAC hybrid.

I could see the AAC going after Dayton. And would St. Louis stay with the westernmost other program being in Pittsburgh?

Where would they go? To them, MVC is a downgrade.

Would CUSA be a downgrade? Saint Louis is quite the geographic outlier for the A-10
02-09-2020 08:27 PM
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RE: New FBS programs in the coming decade
(02-09-2020 08:27 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(02-09-2020 07:23 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-09-2020 12:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(02-09-2020 10:45 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Even as an A10 fan, I have a sliver of concern about a significant shakeup for the conference. Not that the conference itself dies, but that it will permanently join the ranks of the single-bid population.

At best, a raided A10 stands pat, but probably without one or two of its best contributors. At worst, it becomes a more identifiable CAA or MAAC hybrid.

I could see the AAC going after Dayton. And would St. Louis stay with the westernmost other program being in Pittsburgh?

Where would they go? To them, MVC is a downgrade.

Would CUSA be a downgrade? Saint Louis is quite the geographic outlier for the A-10

They are an institutional fit and have loads of money, so they’ll stay put. They would be a solid geographic fit for the AAC and give the conference a great central location for their tourney.
02-09-2020 08:33 PM
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