(04-03-2020 11:17 AM)soccerguy315 Wrote:  It is impossible to be at zero and that should not be the goal. We cannot order 40 million people out of work for a year in an effort to only have 15k deaths or whatever (which would probably fail anyway). We have had as many people file for unemployment the last 2 weeks as possibly during the entire 07-09 crash. Everyone who has had their life upended by these decisions but is otherwise healthy is incurring a significant cost (to both themselves and society).

How long are you going to tell people they cannot live their lives? We will get through crunch time here in the next 2 months and then we can open back up during summer (maybe tell "high risk" individuals to stay quarantined) and live normal lives during the fall.

This is not a giant meteor that will wipe out humanity. It is not an EMP that would shut down electricity (and thus throw life into chaos) in a large section of the country. This is not a Black Plague that will wipe out 50% of the population. We need to make sure to retain perspective as we make policy decisions.

Medical professionals and public health officials are paid to minimize the loss of life. That is extremely important. But in this situation, minimizing the loss of life is not necessarily the optimal outcome for the country when all factors are considered. There is a balance somewhere on the spectrum, and it is likely different people will fall in different places into what is "acceptable loss".

In my opinion.

I agree with you, but that likely will not play in the current view of the country/world.

(04-03-2020 11:17 AM)soccerguy315 Wrote:  It is impossible to be at zero and that should not be the goal. We cannot order 40 million people out of work for a year in an effort to only have 15k deaths or whatever (which would probably fail anyway). We have had as many people file for unemployment the last 2 weeks as possibly during the entire 07-09 crash. Everyone who has had their life upended by these decisions but is otherwise healthy is incurring a significant cost (to both themselves and society).

How long are you going to tell people they cannot live their lives? We will get through crunch time here in the next 2 months and then we can open back up during summer (maybe tell "high risk" individuals to stay quarantined) and live normal lives during the fall.

This is not a giant meteor that will wipe out humanity. It is not an EMP that would shut down electricity (and thus throw life into chaos) in a large section of the country. This is not a Black Plague that will wipe out 50% of the population. We need to make sure to retain perspective as we make policy decisions.

Medical professionals and public health officials are paid to minimize the loss of life. That is extremely important. But in this situation, minimizing the loss of life is not necessarily the optimal outcome for the country when all factors are considered. There is a balance somewhere on the spectrum, and it is likely different people will fall in different places into what is "acceptable loss".

In my opinion.

So far a lot of this has been left up to the States. Wait until the US Government gets involved.

Just a loose timeline, but 6 weeks ago people started taking this seriously, about 4 weeks ago companies started remote work and restricting travel, 3 weeks ago some cities began shelter in place and social distancing, two weeks ago people started to really take seriously the shelter in place and social distancing, this week people are staying home and wearing masks when they go out.

Some people including Governors are still thinking this is no big deal. Go ask New York and New Jersey. Look at the toll it is taking on the hospital systems. Now take that and look at expert predictions that say many places will hit their peak in mid May. Some places will have close to zero cases in mid summer, but by then we will have millions of cases and will probably have more deaths than in the Viet Nam war.

I won't be surprised if travel in and out of hot spots are restricted and enforced by the military.

The loss of jobs is completely due to shelter in place and no congregations. It sucks for those businesses and industries, but it needs to happen. I'm sure the Government will bail it all out somehow. It just might change the meaning of the dollar menu.

(04-03-2020 11:17 AM)soccerguy315 Wrote:  We will get through crunch time here in the next 2 months and then we can open back up during summer (maybe tell "high risk" individuals to stay quarantined) and live normal lives during the fall.

I think this is the improbable hope. The curve is flattened and life can be slowly reintroduced. What we cannot do is rush out to reinvigorate the economy and in the process undue everything we worked for and allow the virus to spike again. I think smart high risk people will try to quarantine, but if you have such easy spread amongst asymptomatic people, I'm not sure how much good it will do.

(04-03-2020 11:17 AM)soccerguy315 Wrote:  There is a balance somewhere on the spectrum, and it is likely different people will fall in different places into what is "acceptable loss".

This is the tough part. Who can measure what is acceptable and what is not? It's easy for us to talk about what is acceptable. What about when it's your parents or neighbors? My parent's death would be unacceptable. Every casualty is a parent, sibling, or friend. Tell that to the NJ family that lost 4 members. Citing numbers and statistics and having suffering in other parts of the country is one thing. Having it hit close to home is another.

Just my opinion.

Chris Fowler says he's heard "informed speculation" from "a lot of reasonable people" the 2020 college football season could start in February 2021.


https://footballscoop.com/news/chris-fow...he-spring/

Looks like a PWO. Played TE/OLB and wrestled in HS.

Drew Sotka
6'0 185 (probably Safety)
Glenelg, MD

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/10889397/5d...0e2cc01647

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(04-14-2020 01:50 PM)TribePride52 Wrote:  Chris Fowler says he's heard "informed speculation" from "a lot of reasonable people" the 2020 college football season could start in February 2021.


https://footballscoop.com/news/chris-fow...he-spring/

Agreed


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(04-03-2020 12:54 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  

(04-03-2020 11:17 AM)soccerguy315 Wrote:  It is impossible to be at zero and that should not be the goal. We cannot order 40 million people out of work for a year in an effort to only have 15k deaths or whatever (which would probably fail anyway). We have had as many people file for unemployment the last 2 weeks as possibly during the entire 07-09 crash. Everyone who has had their life upended by these decisions but is otherwise healthy is incurring a significant cost (to both themselves and society).

How long are you going to tell people they cannot live their lives? We will get through crunch time here in the next 2 months and then we can open back up during summer (maybe tell "high risk" individuals to stay quarantined) and live normal lives during the fall.

This is not a giant meteor that will wipe out humanity. It is not an EMP that would shut down electricity (and thus throw life into chaos) in a large section of the country. This is not a Black Plague that will wipe out 50% of the population. We need to make sure to retain perspective as we make policy decisions.

Medical professionals and public health officials are paid to minimize the loss of life. That is extremely important. But in this situation, minimizing the loss of life is not necessarily the optimal outcome for the country when all factors are considered. There is a balance somewhere on the spectrum, and it is likely different people will fall in different places into what is "acceptable loss".

In my opinion.

So far a lot of this has been left up to the States. Wait until the US Government gets involved.

Just a loose timeline, but 6 weeks ago people started taking this seriously, about 4 weeks ago companies started remote work and restricting travel, 3 weeks ago some cities began shelter in place and social distancing, two weeks ago people started to really take seriously the shelter in place and social distancing, this week people are staying home and wearing masks when they go out.

Some people including Governors are still thinking this is no big deal. Go ask New York and New Jersey. Look at the toll it is taking on the hospital systems. Now take that and look at expert predictions that say many places will hit their peak in mid May. Some places will have close to zero cases in mid summer, but by then we will have millions of cases and will probably have more deaths than in the Viet Nam war.

I won't be surprised if travel in and out of hot spots are restricted and enforced by the military.

The loss of jobs is completely due to shelter in place and no congregations. It sucks for those businesses and industries, but it needs to happen. I'm sure the Government will bail it all out somehow. It just might change the meaning of the dollar menu.

Reading this now, particularly regarding NY and NJ, the doom that was prepped several weeks ago appears over estimated. The Javits Center was never needed, the Hospital Ship sent by the Feds never needed and will be sailing out of NY this week.

I appreciate you posting this. The entire point of shelter in place was to flatten the curve and take pressure off of the hospital systems. It appears to be working everywhere, but a flattening curve means it goes out for a longer period. Still a very long time until it's okay to travel freely. Unfortunately, NY, NJ, and CT still have the majority of cases in the US. It looks like the curve has flattened in Williamsburg/James City County.

That's the thing, we have two NY football programs so I imagine NY will need to get straightened out before CAA Football resumes.

Is California still a mess? Our Stanford game may not happen if the US isn't back to some normalcy by June.

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The weird thing about the Bay Area is that it never spread rapidly. There are hundreds of cases in the Palo Alta area, but they were one of the first areas to shelter in place. Compare that area in California with about 100 cases per 100,000 people to Queens and New York City where there at 10 to 15 times more cases per 100,000 people. California has about 42k cases, the New York Metro area has around 400k. I wouldn't rule the game out, but there may be an empty stadium.

I'm fascinated to see how the NCAA deals with this. I'm also fascinated to see how high schools deal with it. It could be a lost senior year for football players. Tough to recruit.

(04-26-2020 11:36 AM)Tribe32 Wrote:  The weird thing about the Bay Area is that it never spread rapidly. There are hundreds of cases in the Palo Alta area, but they were one of the first areas to shelter in place. Compare that area in California with about 100 cases per 100,000 people to Queens and New York City where there at 10 to 15 times more cases per 100,000 people. California has about 42k cases, the New York Metro area has around 400k. I wouldn't rule the game out, but there may be an empty stadium.

I'm fascinated to see how the NCAA deals with this. I'm also fascinated to see how high schools deal with it. It could be a lost senior year for football players. Tough to recruit.

I think empty stadiums is very likely at this point, if there isn't a vaccine I doubt a lot of people would even feel comfortable going to games. Would be interesting though how teams react to no fans, the lower in level you get the more gate sales drive revenue, Flo isn't cutting checks big enough to cover the cost of football.

I'd go to a game right now. Families/groups sit in clusters and 10' from the next group, wear masks and gloves and play ball. 4,000 fans easily that way. It would be like Villanova playing at home.

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Playing with no fans is the easy part. MLB is considering putting all of the teams in Florida and Arizona based on where they play spring training. Book entire hotels and condos and make those the mandatory homes for the players and families. In essence you would quarantine all of MLB. Of course there's the problem with injuries, minor league call ups, etc.

I have no idea how you can have entire college football teams, coaches, trainers, managers, and staff quarantined. I think the first thing we need to see is the actual colleges allow students back on campus. After that anything is possible. But, I'll pose a question......do the other students want the team to go somewhere and bring the virus back to campus? How about when most or all of a team gets it. Is it okay to quarantine for three weeks? Three forfeits.

When you peel back the onion, it looks more and more likely that we won't play this season.

(04-26-2020 12:00 PM)Tribal Wrote:  I'd go to a game right now. Families/groups sit in clusters and 10' from the next group, wear masks and gloves and play ball. 4,000 fans easily that way. It would be like Villanova playing at home.

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Villanova football home games (like Northeastern basketball home games) can continue unchanged in the pandemic.

Seriously though, I wouldn't go to a game until the CDC/WHO/etc. says it's okay to go. Not universally, but the people that would go to the game are more likely to be people who are not paying close enough attention to their behavior. Not saying it would be all 4000 (to use Tribal's number) but even if it were 40 of the 4000, I don't want to be there.

Many, if not most people over 50 would not go to a sports event with crowds. Since, as for college football & basketball, the largest
percentage of season ticket holders are fifty years and older and will not renew theur season tickets as long as the pandemic
continues to actively exist and take lives, most athletic departments are fully aware of this and face greatly reduced receipts if,
indeed, there is college football and basketball played this year.

Things will not relax until there is an available vaccine and/or a successful treatment for people who get the virus.

The latter, of course, does not include ingesting or injecting household cleaning fluids or shooting bolts of ultra violet light
though either orifice of the body as per a recent suggestion.

An early survey (a few weeks ago) asked sports fans whether they would go to a large event before a vaccine was available. 72% said no.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2885...19-vaccine

(04-26-2020 04:38 PM)Tribe32 Wrote:  An early survey (a few weeks ago) asked sports fans whether they would go to a large event before a vaccine was available. 72% said no.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2885...19-vaccine

With some suggestions of limiting capacity to no more than 25% of seating, I would definitely go.

Carl Fowler, graduate, and on to law school.

Not quite the Wren bell #wmGrad https://t.co/P5dIBsJhjm

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(04-26-2020 11:41 AM)TDenverFan Wrote:  

(04-26-2020 11:36 AM)Tribe32 Wrote:  The weird thing about the Bay Area is that it never spread rapidly. There are hundreds of cases in the Palo Alta area, but they were one of the first areas to shelter in place. Compare that area in California with about 100 cases per 100,000 people to Queens and New York City where there at 10 to 15 times more cases per 100,000 people. California has about 42k cases, the New York Metro area has around 400k. I wouldn't rule the game out, but there may be an empty stadium.

I'm fascinated to see how the NCAA deals with this. I'm also fascinated to see how high schools deal with it. It could be a lost senior year for football players. Tough to recruit.

I think empty stadiums is very likely at this point, if there isn't a vaccine I doubt a lot of people would even feel comfortable going to games. Would be interesting though how teams react to no fans, the lower in level you get the more gate sales drive revenue, Flo isn't cutting checks big enough to cover the cost of football.

https://www.grandforksherald.com/sports/...or-UND-FCS

Another hit to revenue if above linked report turns out to be true across the board.