As we are 9 games through conference, this site might come in handy with projections. It uses the Big Ten tiebreakers, but you can also see what teams have moved up and down each week.

https://autodqm.web.cern.ch/AutoDQM/cbb/...index.html

I see the formula isnt accounting for our coaching change

(01-26-2020 09:55 AM)solohawks Wrote:  I see the formula isnt accounting for our coaching change

Yep. Might as well throw the first half of the CAA slate out the window when evaluating our chances. It’s a brand new season.

Need projections? There is a simple method and it works 50% of the time. Pick any two teams and roll the dice or flip a coin. Right now anyone can beat anyone else and its a complete crapshoot as to how the rankings will shake out. At the half way point 2 games separate 1st from 7th and 1 game separate 2nd form 7th. And UNCW has changed their dynamics with their new coach, so they aren't even the punching bag now. Can't be any closer than that.

Congrats to Hofstra who basically clinched the top seed today with a complete beatdown of Delaware on the road. Hofstra has basically crushed all the teams in their path in the last month and are the clear favorite for the championship at this point. Delaware is a good team and was playing very well coming in and the Pride found a different level against the Hens.

W&M is the 2 seed. The Tribe has won a lot of close games and hasn't really looked impressive for more than a month. But, the 2 seed is an accomplishment given the preseason outlook.

Delaware/Towson/Charleston and Northeastern will be 3-6 in some order to still be determined.

Elon, Drexel, UNCW and JMU will be 7-10. Given that JMU would have to beat Hofstra and Northeastern on the road next week and have UNCW lose both their last two games to get them out of the cellar, JMU will be #10. Very likely Elon will be 7, Drexel the 8, UNCW the 9.

Hofstra based on their play is the largest favorite to win the CAA tournament since UNCW in 2017. They have blown out Delaware and W&M both on the road this month and easily handled Charleston at home as well. They face Towson Thursday again(after handling them easily early in the season) to clinch the regular season championship. Despite all that, I still struggle to think this current team is better than the one that had JWF last season. Perhaps they are better. It sure looks like it is their time.

Thank you. You're among the fans who praises Hofstra the most. Knight and Van Vliet combine to average 33.8 points and 19.3 rebounds. If they combine for 40 and 20, you can beat anyone, especially if they draw fouls by the basket that lead to the bonus for free throws from non-shooting fouls for you. If they combine for their average or lower, your guards can't match Hofstra.

Hofstra is +7.7 points per game. Last season Hofstra was +10.5 per game against a harder schedule. Hofstra assist-to-turnover ratio is down from 1.44 last season to 1.06 this season. Four CAA teams had higher ratios last season than the top ratio this season, which is by Elon. Hofstra continues to shoot free throws extremely well (second of 353 teams last season and eighth this season) with way more made per game than their opponents. Their differential is down from +6.94 per game last season to +6.38 this season. Of last season's top three, Northeastern and Charleston lost three starters, and Hofstra lost two. Charleston hasn't had anyone step up to make up for going from two stars to one. If Galloway scored as much as Buie (or even was half as close at 3.7 behind rather than 7.4 behind), Charleston would be better.

I think that the 3 slot is now between COC and Towson. COC gets the slot if they win and Towson loses since they swept both Towson and Delaware. Can Northeastern still move up from 6? Finally, does Drexel have a chance still to get to 7 or is Elon locked into that spot?

(02-28-2020 10:27 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  I think that the 3 slot is now between COC and Towson. COC gets the slot if they win and Towson loses since they swept both Towson and Delaware. Can Northeastern still move up from 6? Finally, does Drexel have a chance still to get to 7 or is Elon locked into that spot?

Technically, and I specify the word "technically", Drexel can finish 7th if they beat COC and Elon loses to W&M. Drexel has the tiebreaker over Elon since both teams were swept by Hofstra, but Drexel beat W&M when Elon would lose to them twice.

But Drexel is 1-12 on the road, and their season is sinking faster than the Titanic. I can't how they have any chance to win at Charleston. Last year, Drexel pulled off a very improbably miracle win at Charleston (1 of just 10 road wins in 4 years under Spiker). The odds of something like that happening again are close to zero.

(02-28-2020 10:45 AM)J.B. Wrote:  

(02-28-2020 10:27 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  I think that the 3 slot is now between COC and Towson. COC gets the slot if they win and Towson loses since they swept both Towson and Delaware. Can Northeastern still move up from 6? Finally, does Drexel have a chance still to get to 7 or is Elon locked into that spot?

Technically, and I specify the word "technically", Drexel can finish 7th if they beat COC and Elon loses to W&M. Drexel has the tiebreaker over Elon since both teams were swept by Hofstra, but Drexel beat W&M when Elon would lose to them twice.

But Drexel is 1-12 on the road, and their season is sinking faster than the Titanic. I can't how they have any chance to win at Charleston. Last year, Drexel pulled off a very improbably miracle win at Charleston (1 of just 10 road wins in 4 years under Spiker). The odds of something like that happening again are close to zero.

Congrats to the Pride. Back to back regular season titles. Wish the Tribe had kept their coach and returning players, it would have been an interesting race. Still, there might be some good basketball next week.

Drexel fighting hard with a chance to face JMU if they can win.

Thank you for praising Hofstra. Drexel lost 75-66. Tomorrow determines which of Charleston and Towson will be 3 and which will be 4. Every Quarterfinal has exactly one team known.