T-Rank projects end of season NET based on using their Pomeroy-style efficiency ranks to predict scores for all remaining games.

http://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php

Here are the top American teams:

20 Houston
23 Memphis
36 Wichita St

Cincy at 58 and SMU at 66 might be on the wrong side of the bubble.

It's still so fluid. It begins to mean more in about a month.

(01-19-2020 12:02 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  T-Rank projects end of season NET based on using their Pomeroy-style efficiency ranks to predict scores for all remaining games.

http://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php

Here are the top American teams:

20 Houston
23 Memphis
36 Wichita St

Cincy at 58 and SMU at 66 might be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Cincy (#58; 18-12) and SMU (#66; 21-9) would be projected NIT teams.

UConn (#85; 17-14), Temple (#87; 17-14), and Tulsa (#91; 18-13) would be potential NIT bubble teams.

Houston and Memphis would go 23-8; WSU would go 24-7.

the rest:

UCF #120; 17-13
USF #149; 14-17
Tulane #160; 14-16
ECU #249; 11-20

.
Here's another set of projections, based on the GAMER model (link below):

WSU #16; 23-8
Memphis #22; 23-8
Houston #24; 22-9
Cincy #48; 18-12
Temple #58; 19-12
SMU #62; 19-11
Tulsa #88; 18-13
UCF #100; 17-13
UConn #146; 16-15
Tulane #180; 15-15
USF #188; 13-18
ECU #231; 11-20

http://realtimerpi.com/gamer_prediction_system.html

.
Averages (arithmetic means) of these two predictive models:

Houston #22 (23.5 wins)
Memphis #22.5 (23 wins)
WSU #26 (23.5 wins)
Cincy #53 (18 wins)
SMU #64 (20 wins)
Temple #72.5 (18 wins)
Tulsa #90.5 (18 wins)
UConn #115.5 (16.5 wins)
UCF #110 (17 wins)
USF #168.5 (13.5 wins)
Tulane #170 (14.5 wins)
ECU #240 (11 wins)

(01-19-2020 12:02 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  T-Rank projects end of season NET based on using their Pomeroy-style efficiency ranks to predict scores for all remaining games.

http://barttorvik.com/net4cast.php

Here are the top American teams:

20 Houston
23 Memphis
36 Wichita St

Cincy at 58 and SMU at 66 might be on the wrong side of the bubble.

Last year, the highest at-large NET schools excluded were NC St (#33), Clemson (#35), Texas (#38), Furman (#41), and Memphis (#46). Cincy and SMU definitely are in danger. Of course, things change in a hurry depending on actual results.

Distribution by NET Rank of NCAA 2019 At-Large Bids (Rank Range//#)
1-10 // 8

11-20 // 7

21-30 // 6

31-40 // 5

41-50 // 5

51-60 // 3

61-70 // 1

71 - 80 // 1

Ohio State (#55)
Temple (#56)
Seton Hall (#57)
Minnesota (#61)
St John's (#73)

AAC Schools with 72 rank or less not making the NCAA Tourney
Memphis #46

Bearcats need 20 before the conference tournament to have a realistic chance. Need to cut down on their turnovers and make more threes. They've played great defense for a month and get really good shots when they don't turn it over (a ton at the rim or mostly open jumpers)

If Cincy doesn't make the NCAA field as an at-large, they might be able to win the AAC tournament.

Otherwise, they would have a strong shot of being a #1 or #2 seed in the NIT.