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Poll: Will we see a move this offseason?
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Yes- All Sports conference with football 18.75% 12 18.75%
Yes- all sports conference- no football 15.63% 10 15.63%
No 65.63% 42 65.63%
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Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
When does the A5 conference contracts come up?
01-19-2020 01:48 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-19-2020 01:48 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  When does the A5 conference contracts come up?
SEC T1: 2023 SEC T2 & T3: 2034
ACC T1/T2/T3: 2037
Big 10 T1/T2: 2023-4 T3?
Big 12 : T1/T2: 2024-5 T3 per school.
PAC 12: T2/T2: 2025 T3 self owned
01-19-2020 09:47 AM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-19-2020 09:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-19-2020 01:48 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  When does the A5 conference contracts come up?
SEC T1: 2023 SEC T2 & T3: 2034
ACC T1/T2/T3: 2037
Big 10 T1/T2: 2023-4 T3?
Big 12 : T1/T2: 2024-5 T3 per school.
PAC 12: T2/T2: 2025 T3 self owned

Important details


B1G network packages runs to June 30th, 2023, Schools are fully vested 50% owners of T3, Fox owns 50%
Pac-12 network package runs to June 30th, 2024, Schools are full equity owners of T3 (equity sale potential is very high)
Big 12 network packages runs to June 30th, 2025, grant of rights runs out with network contract
** Texas' T3 LHN runs through June 30th, 2031. It will pay about $18m average to Texas from 2025-31
** OU's Sooner TV (produced by Big Ten Network for FOX) pays about $5-6m for T3 and runs through 2022 season
// OU is expected to sign a 3-year extension to align T3 rights with June 2025 B12 GOR expiration
** "little 8" T3 owned by ESPN (ESPN+) through 2025, expected payouts are below $2m per school
ACC grant of rights (Notre Dame included) runs the length of the ESPN contract, through 2037 (likely has periodic rate evaluations like SEC)

Latest numbers from SBJ

B1G: $759 million ($54m per school)
SEC: $627 million ($43.1m per school)
P12: $497 million ($29.5m per school) // P12 has overhead issues, schools should be getting about $37m with this revenue level
ACC: $465 million ($29.5m per school)
B12: $373.9 million ($34.7m per school)

SEC has agreed to renewed contract that bumps per school base $20m starting in 2023, which my BOE says $69.2m per school. The B1G will be $62.6m per school when the same 3% annual bump is applied going into their next contract -- my WAG they will negotiate a 10% bump minimum to keep pace with the SEC. Where the SEC might edge ahead however is the revenue from SECtv over BTN. We are talking about the B1G pushing $70m in 2025 and the SEC maybe even over $75m per school by 2025. For comparison the 3% rate places the B12 at $41.3m per school for the 2025. That is a revenue gap of $30m per school with the B1G and SEC. A 20% bump would be sufficient for Texas to stay put, but it would much too small for Oklahoma and Kansas to easily live with.

For the Pac-12, solving their overhead issue should push distributions to about $48m per school (minimum) by 2025 --assumes a modest 10% jump in T1/T2 rights --, plus a partial equity sale likely pushes at least $100m to each of the schools. That wont keep pace with the SEC or B1G, but it should allow the P12 to be healthy. But it's an open question whether they can solve those issues. If they don't solve the distribution issues, $40m per school is reasonable ball park figure for 2025.

The ACC appears to be the weakest, as 3% revenue growth only pushes their per school revenue to around $36.5m in 2025, and they are locked in until 2037. What they are banking on is much higher digital growth for the ACCN, more like >5% per year to push them above $40m per school by that time. But even that is insufficient to keep pace.

Note Notre Dame is on the backside of it's NBC contract (1991-2025)that averages $15m per year over the life of the contract through 2025 ($525m total). Using the escalator, 2019 should pay the Irish $19.9m and 2025 will pay $23.7m. In addition they got $5.8m from the ACC last year, which should jump to $7.8m by 2025. This put Notre Dame at a slight disadvantage, but no crying they got a massive sum up front and endowed at least 40 full football scholarships with that money, a huge advantage over every other schools.

Barring any huge surprises we are probably looking at media revenue distributions of $68-70m for the SEC and B1G in 2025-26 and $38-42m for the B12, P12 and ACC schools. At least this is what simple BOE calculations yield (assumes modest improvement in P12 distributions due to more overhead control, modest 10% bump in contract, ditto for B1G contract bump, and above 5% growth in ACCN). That is a two level distribution system. Note Notre Dame will be around $31-32m total in 2025 when they negotiate a new TV contract for football -- a $10-15m jump seems probable, putting them slightly above the pack, but well below the B1G and SEC.

Note, American payout with be $7.1m (subtract about $1m for ESPN production fee -- ACC seems to be about $3m per school by comparison) and Mountain West $4.1m (Boise State $6.0m) in 2025 using the 3% escalator rule. Other G5 payouts, after production costs (MAC pays about $1m per school, absorbing most of their ESPN revenue) are really low, as in a net of maybe $300K per school -- A10 Basketball TV contract is similar.

This is a pretty rough estimate, but it should give one a sense of the levels come 2025:

level 1: ($68-70m) SEC, B1G
$30m gap
level 2: ($38-42m) B12, P12, ACC, Notre Dame
$35m gap
level 3: ($4-7m) AAC, MWC
level 5: SBC, MAC, CUSA
01-19-2020 04:14 PM
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sierrajip Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-19-2020 09:47 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-19-2020 01:48 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  When does the A5 conference contracts come up?
SEC T1: 2023 SEC T2 & T3: 2034
ACC T1/T2/T3: 2037
Big 10 T1/T2: 2023-4 T3?
Big 12 : T1/T2: 2024-5 T3 per school. LHN (2031) OU T3 Fox (2022)
PAC 12: T2/T2: 2025 T3 self owned

Thanks for the info. I would like to add that the Big 12-2 should be appended to account for the LHN contract for Texas(2030 I believe) since UT is a big factor in causing realignment. The BIG and the SEC could cause realignment if the two conferences wanted to take teams from the ACC, but that is almost, if not, nil since ESPiN owns two and a half of them, including the ACC.
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2020 06:09 PM by JRsec.)
01-20-2020 06:07 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #65
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
I'd dare say the odds of a move this offseason have gone way up.
01-22-2020 04:17 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-22-2020 04:17 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd dare say the odds of a move this offseason have gone way up.

- Boise suing MWC
- AFA coach wants out of MWC

If I'm the AAC, I'm taking advantage and poaching Colorado St as the third.

Keep Boise/AFA FB-only, add VCU/Dayton BB in their place.
01-22-2020 04:21 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-22-2020 04:21 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(01-22-2020 04:17 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd dare say the odds of a move this offseason have gone way up.

- Boise suing MWC
- AFA coach wants out of MWC

If I'm the AAC, I'm taking advantage and poaching Colorado St as the third.

Keep Boise/AFA FB-only, add VCU/Dayton BB in their place.

AFA and Navy are the types who will commit for some time. I'd wager the AAC will gladly take them, and definitely prefer them over Boise State, but, were I AFA, I wonder if the window to join and not deal with penalties down the road once the Big XII issues come into full framing puts moving to the AAC into the realm of unlikely.

The AAC is going to have to do something, I'd wager. Problem is, knowing there's something out there with the Big XII in a few years? Why work and pay to move in just to get comfortable for, what, a season or two before the fireworks and others start working like mad to move into a remnants conference?

AFA and Navy will likely be in cahoots. So, if AFA does move to the AAC, it's because Navy will go down with the AAC ship no matter what happens there.
01-22-2020 04:30 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-22-2020 04:17 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd dare say the odds of a move this offseason have gone way up.

This might turn out to be the best news that NMSU football has had in a long time.
01-22-2020 04:43 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-22-2020 04:21 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(01-22-2020 04:17 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I'd dare say the odds of a move this offseason have gone way up.

- Boise suing MWC
- AFA coach wants out of MWC

If I'm the AAC, I'm taking advantage and poaching Colorado St as the third.

Keep Boise/AFA FB-only, add VCU/Dayton BB in their place.

The AAC is going to tidy up and grow. That might be the end of the story, or it might be a solidification that is merely a prelude to bigger moves within a couple of years.

If the SEC and Big 10 revenue grows as anticipated it could create a lot of upheaval which might lead the consolidation of 2 or 3 current P conferences opening the door for the AAC to become a 4th or 5th P conference depending on the size limitations placed upon the Big 10 and SEC by profitability.
01-22-2020 05:01 PM
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johnintx Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
I voted no before the news about both Boise and the ASun came up this week. Now I'd say yes to some realignment somewhere.
(This post was last modified: 01-22-2020 10:06 PM by johnintx.)
01-22-2020 09:37 PM
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Rob3338 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-15-2020 01:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:00 PM)megadrone Wrote:  If you don't consider football, does UMass fit the profile of an AAC school (in terms of number of sports offered, Athletic department budget, etc.)? Would they be a good addition for all sports other than football?

Why take them basketball only when they could get a program like VCU who is right now light years better?

Dayton would be an even stronger add than VCU. But I'd be very surprised if Cincinnati would allow it.

They're close to 1 and 1a.

It would be interesting to watch with the A10 if 1 of them did leave.

Dayton would be even better than VCU but Cincy would have a fit if they were added. Remember Cincy and Dayton are only 49 miles from each other and have never liked each other. Also to some extent they recruit in the same area which creates a problem.
01-22-2020 10:31 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-22-2020 10:31 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:00 PM)megadrone Wrote:  If you don't consider football, does UMass fit the profile of an AAC school (in terms of number of sports offered, Athletic department budget, etc.)? Would they be a good addition for all sports other than football?

Why take them basketball only when they could get a program like VCU who is right now light years better?

Dayton would be an even stronger add than VCU. But I'd be very surprised if Cincinnati would allow it.

They're close to 1 and 1a.

It would be interesting to watch with the A10 if 1 of them did leave.

Dayton would be even better than VCU but Cincy would have a fit if they were added. Remember Cincy and Dayton are only 49 miles from each other and have never liked each other. Also to some extent they recruit in the same area which creates a problem.


(01-16-2020 10:00 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  There is consistent message board talk that Xavier would block Dayton's admission into the Big East (assuming that there would be an initial interest). Would Cincinnati feel the same way?


Cincinnati fans generally like and respect Dayton.

I think UC fans would welcome UD into the conference with open arms. We've lost our 2nd biggest rival (Louisville) and Dayton would be a natural fit.

More importantly, UC fans would welcome Dayton because the conference needs more good basketball programs. The conference has seriously underperformed in basketball the past six years. And it's heading in the wrong direction. There's no elite teams this year, and arguably our biggest basketball brand (UConn) is leaving next year.
01-23-2020 12:12 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-23-2020 12:12 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-22-2020 10:31 PM)Rob3338 Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:56 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:53 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(01-15-2020 01:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Why take them basketball only when they could get a program like VCU who is right now light years better?

Dayton would be an even stronger add than VCU. But I'd be very surprised if Cincinnati would allow it.

They're close to 1 and 1a.

It would be interesting to watch with the A10 if 1 of them did leave.

Dayton would be even better than VCU but Cincy would have a fit if they were added. Remember Cincy and Dayton are only 49 miles from each other and have never liked each other. Also to some extent they recruit in the same area which creates a problem.


(01-16-2020 10:00 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  There is consistent message board talk that Xavier would block Dayton's admission into the Big East (assuming that there would be an initial interest). Would Cincinnati feel the same way?


Cincinnati fans generally like and respect Dayton.

I think UC fans would welcome UD into the conference with open arms. We've lost our 2nd biggest rival (Louisville) and Dayton would be a natural fit.

More importantly, UC fans would welcome Dayton because the conference needs more good basketball programs. The conference has seriously underperformed in basketball the past six years. And it's heading in the wrong direction. There's no elite teams this year, and arguably our biggest basketball brand (UConn) is leaving next year.

Agree with the Captain here. I have been following UC athletics for several decades. I have never felt UC fans disliked UD. UD and XU hate each other.
01-23-2020 10:28 AM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
People keep forgetting the Saint Thomas and Augustana to the Summit League. Just waiting to see if there is a way for a D3 team move to D1.

I would like to see Presbyterian move back to NAIA. They are the smallest D1 school right now.
01-23-2020 07:36 PM
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Post: #75
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
A week ago I really felt like the AAC would probably be an 11 team conference for quite some time---but this sudden rift in the MW Conference has kinda changed the landscape a bit. I still think the odds are the AAC will still be at 11 members 2 years from now---but I do think there is a significant chance that this MW situation might create the kind of environment where the AAC can pick up a quality 12th football member (call it a 25% chance of happening for now).
(This post was last modified: 01-24-2020 03:08 AM by Attackcoog.)
01-24-2020 03:07 AM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Will there be a realignment move this offseason?
(01-15-2020 05:11 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  IWokeUpLikeThis makes an excellent point by posting this:

"Dayton is a power-program in a non-power-conference."

Power is about resources/money or (for the ultimate "power") a combo of resources AND results.

Dayton can afford to pay its coach $1 million or more annually. It can average 10,000 fans or more per game. It has won lots of NCAA and NIT games. It is more so a "power program" than many programs in the so-called football P5.

Gonzaga, VCU, BYU, Memphis, Cincy, Wichita, Houston, Temple ... these are "power" (or "high-major" if you prefer) programs that are not members of power leagues.

This is a concept that some college sports fans fail to grasp. I recall when Xavier was a member of the A10 and was often "ranked" in some so-called Mid-Major Poll. X fans took exception — as they should have, as I did, too. XU has long been a power/high-major program that now happens to be in a power league (defined, in large part, by all of its members being high-major programs).

When Memphis, Cincy, Louisville, DePaul and Marquette were in the old C-USA ... they were considered high-major programs — and rightly so — by people who "get it."

It continues to baffle me that some folks who follow sports don't understand this basic concept.

I can remember in the 80's when the WAC was treated like a peer of the PAC, B1G, SEC, ACC in football.

Then the BCS hit and the WAC by virtue of not being a BCS conference became viewed as a mid-major conference.

The point you are bringing up then about Dayton, the BE and others is unfortunately since they are not blessed to have a spot in the PAC, B1G, ACC, SEC, XII of today they are mid-major by the general public. Dayton should pull a Notre Dame and join the ACC if they want major status.
01-24-2020 08:16 AM
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