1. LSU
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Georgia
5. Oregon
6. Florida
7. Oklahoma
8. Alabama
9. Penn State
10. Minnesota
11. Wisconsin
12. Notre Dame
13. Baylor
14. Auburn
15. Iowa
16. Utah
17. Memphis
18. Michigan
19. Appalachian State
20. Navy
21. Cincinnati
22. Air Force
23. Boise State
24. UCF
25. Texas

Link: Final AP Top 25

Also noteworthy:

There were 7 G5 teams in the final AP top 25.

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In contrast:

There was only 1 G5 team in the 2019 preseason top 25.

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In other words, the sports writers and broadcasters underestimated the number of G5 top 25 teams, in 2019, by 600%.

Since the first P5/G5 season in 2013, the AP 25 voters have predicted, on average, that less than one (0.86) G5 team would end up in the final AP Top 25.

In actuality, the number of G5 teams in the final AP Top 25 has consistently surpassed their expectations, and has increased from two to seven teams between 2013 and 2019 (average = 3.43 G5 teams per year), as shown in the Table below.

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Table 1

Number of G5 teams in Preseason and Final AP 25, by year:

Year: Preseason Top 25:.................Final Top 25:

2019: 1 team..................................7 teams (G5 "hit rate:" 16.6%)

2018: 2 teams.................................5 teams (+ Army; G5 "hit rate:" 40%)

2017: 1 team..................................3 teams (G5 "hit rate: 33.3%)

2016: 0 team..................................3 teams (G5 "hit rate:" 0%)

2015: 1 team..................................2 teams (G5 "hit rate: 50%)

2014: 0 team..................................2 teams (G5 "hit rate:" 0%)

2013: 1 team..................................2 teams (G5 "hit rate: 50%)

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Their average G5 "hit rate" (i.e., accurate G5 prediction rate) between 2013 and 2019 has been an abysmal 25% (6 predicted top 25 G5 teams to 24 actual G5 teams in the final AP Top 25), and has never exceeded 50%.

The Table above shows that the preseason AP Top 25 underestimates of the number of G5 final AP top 25 teams have increased, from 100% (1 out of 2) in 2013 to 600% (1 out of 7) in 2019).


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From all outward appearances, the sports writers and broadcasters who vote in the preseason AP Top 25 rankings don't seem to have had the slightest inkling that the number of G5 top 25 quality teams has increased considerably since the P5/G5 system began in 2012-13.

Imagine if SMU has shown up. . . Don’t worry we’ll what 1, maybe 2 teams in the preseason top 25 next year ? I see zero chance they’ll give us 3. Despite every team (besides navy losing Clark) getting better and older (including most of our unranked teams).

(01-14-2020 04:00 AM)Greenwavedrownsacat Wrote:  Imagine if SMU has shown up. . . Don’t worry we’ll what 1, maybe 2 teams in the preseason top 25 next year ? I see zero chance they’ll give us 3. Despite every team (besides navy losing Clark) getting better and older (including most of our unranked teams).

SMU shows up and blows out FAU the AP would have had quite the conundrum as UCF deserved to finish ranked but I don't seriously the AP would have had 5 AAC teams in the Final Top 25. As it is the AAC had 4 teams finished ranked in Top 25 and SMU come in at #33. Very good showing by the AAC. Certainly does not hurt Aresco talking to ESPN about the value of the AAC minus UCONN

So AAC has the highest "G5" ranked team and most ranked (4). MAC and CUSA have no one. MWC has 2, and Sunbelt has 1 team. AAC has more ranked teams than the entire G4. ACC only ends up with Clemson ranked. The American definitely is P6.

For those keep score at home, that is exactly ONE ACC team in the final ranking.

One. And you can't convince me for a second that any of our ranked teams couldn't play with, or beat, Clemson.

If there wasn't such an inherent bias, Memphis would have been much higher going into the NY6 game and would have finished somewhere around 12-14.

Great season by those G5 teams ranked.

But none of us could beat Clemson. There is a wide gap between the top few programs and the rest of the FBS.

(01-14-2020 08:30 AM)Saint3333 Wrote:  Great season by those G5 teams ranked.

But none of us could beat Clemson. There is a wide gap between the top few programs and the rest of the FBS.

This. The Top 5 teams are normally NFL-lite. But that being said, helluva showing by the AAC and the "G" schools as a whole.

So 5 teams in Top 40 (SMU #33). Not bad.

P6 Power!

AAC has more teams ranked in Top 25 (4) then the PAC 12 and ACC have combined (3)!!

(01-14-2020 07:58 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  For those keep score at home, that is exactly ONE ACC team in the final ranking.

One. And you can't convince me for a second that any of our ranked teams couldn't play with, or beat, Clemson.

If there wasn't such an inherent bias, Memphis would have been much higher going into the NY6 game and would have finished somewhere around 12-14.

IMO, Clemson will destroy the Tigers, but I like our chances against any other ACC squad.

(01-14-2020 09:56 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(01-14-2020 07:58 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  For those keep score at home, that is exactly ONE ACC team in the final ranking.

One. And you can't convince me for a second that any of our ranked teams couldn't play with, or beat, Clemson.

If there wasn't such an inherent bias, Memphis would have been much higher going into the NY6 game and would have finished somewhere around 12-14.

IMO, Clemson will destroy the Tigers, but I like our chances against any other ACC squad.

Clemson barely got by several bad or mediocre ACC teams this year. Why would you say that?

Congrats to all on a fine season.

I'm a bit surprised we didn't get jumped by another G5 team. We were 19 going into the Cotton Bowl. Gaining two spots with a loss is pretty unusual. I guess they liked the fight in us in the loss. Anyway having four of us in is quite an achievement.

(01-14-2020 10:21 AM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  I'm a bit surprised we didn't get jumped by another G5 team. We were 19 going into the Cotton Bowl. Gaining two spots with a loss is pretty unusual. I guess they liked the fight in us in the loss. Anyway having four of us in is quite an achievement.

Rankings jumped from CFP back to AP. You guys dropped one spot in the AP.

Navy has got to be most improved team in the nation. Niumatalolo is coach of the year imo.

(01-14-2020 10:22 AM)NothingButKnight Wrote:  

(01-14-2020 10:21 AM)Memphis Yankee Wrote:  I'm a bit surprised we didn't get jumped by another G5 team. We were 19 going into the Cotton Bowl. Gaining two spots with a loss is pretty unusual. I guess they liked the fight in us in the loss. Anyway having four of us in is quite an achievement.

Rankings jumped from CFP back to AP. You guys dropped one spot in the AP.

OK thanks.

(01-14-2020 10:10 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(01-14-2020 09:56 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(01-14-2020 07:58 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  For those keep score at home, that is exactly ONE ACC team in the final ranking.

One. And you can't convince me for a second that any of our ranked teams couldn't play with, or beat, Clemson.

If there wasn't such an inherent bias, Memphis would have been much higher going into the NY6 game and would have finished somewhere around 12-14.

IMO, Clemson will destroy the Tigers, but I like our chances against any other ACC squad.

Clemson barely got by several bad or mediocre ACC teams this year. Why would you say that?

Clemson had one close game against UNC. Their next-closest win in the ACC was 45-14 over Florida State. They steamrolled the ACC.

Clemson, OSU, and LSU were on a whole different level than the rest of college football this year. Outside of those 3 teams, I think our top teams can compete with anybody, but not those teams. Cincinnati was one of the top teams in the AAC this year and lost to OSU 42-0.

Boise clearly would finish 5th in this league.

Congrats to all on a great season for the conference .

(01-14-2020 10:10 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(01-14-2020 09:56 AM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  

(01-14-2020 07:58 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  For those keep score at home, that is exactly ONE ACC team in the final ranking.

One. And you can't convince me for a second that any of our ranked teams couldn't play with, or beat, Clemson.

If there wasn't such an inherent bias, Memphis would have been much higher going into the NY6 game and would have finished somewhere around 12-14.

IMO, Clemson will destroy the Tigers, but I like our chances against any other ACC squad.

Clemson barely got by several bad or mediocre ACC teams this year. Why would you say that?

It's a common ailment among Memphis fans called "Battered Fan Syndrome". My gut reaction is to agree with him.