I don’t see any reason why all 4 top 25 American teams shouldn’t at least maintain their spots preseason next year. Each team should at least be as good if not better. Congratulations to Memphis, Navy, Cincinnati and UCF.

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

1. I find it surprising that Cincinnati was the best defensive team Memphis played outside of (maybe) Ole Miss.

2. Cincinnati had a carousel at the O-line and the last thing that would've gave Ohio State a game is a young inexperienced O-line which ended up causing our starting quarterback to get hurt. I don't think there was anyway UC could win that game but if they didn't lose their guard while starting a kid who only had being playing college football a couple years and learning offensive line for one I'm sure 40 - 0 would've definitely not happened

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Top G5 teams can maybe hang with a disinterested Clemson when they’re having a bad day- like UNC almost (and maybe should have) beating Clemson the week after App beat UNC.

But a motivated Clemson destroys us. No knock on anyone, Clemson beats any team this year except LSU.

17. Memphis
18. Michigan
19. Appalachian State
20. Navy
21. Cincinnati
22. Air Force
23. Boise State
24. UCF
25. Texas

Not to split hairs, but I want to split this hair...how does Appy get ranked above Navy and Cincinnati? They play in a weaker conference, beat no one who was ranked in the AP and lost at HOME to GEORGIA SOUTHERN. Fair question...

(01-15-2020 03:05 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

1. I find it surprising that Cincinnati was the best defensive team Memphis played outside of (maybe) Ole Miss.

2. Cincinnati had a carousel at the O-line and the last thing that would've gave Ohio State a game is a young inexperienced O-line which ended up causing our starting quarterback to get hurt. I don't think there was anyway UC could win that game but if they didn't lose their guard while starting a kid who only had being playing college football a couple years and learning offensive line for one I'm sure 40 - 0 would've definitely not happened

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Top G5 teams can maybe hang with a disinterested Clemson when they’re having a bad day- like UNC almost (and maybe should have) beating Clemson the week after App beat UNC.

But a motivated Clemson destroys us. No knock on anyone, Clemson beats any team this year except LSU.

I don't think it's impossible for a G5 team to be the best team in the nation. I genuinely believe the UCF team from a couple years ago with Milton, Griffin, etc could have beaten any team in the country that year

(01-14-2020 03:38 AM)jedclampett Wrote:  Also noteworthy:

There were 7 G5 teams in the final AP top 25.

.
In contrast:

There was only 1 G5 team in the 2019 preseason top 25.

.
In other words, the sports writers and broadcasters underestimated the number of G5 top 25 teams, in 2019, by 600%.

Since the first P5/G5 season in 2013, the AP 25 voters have predicted, on average, that less than one (0.86) G5 team would end up in the final AP Top 25.

In actuality, the number of G5 teams in the final AP Top 25 has consistently surpassed their expectations, and has increased from two to seven teams between 2013 and 2019 (average = 3.43 G5 teams per year), as shown in the Table below.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Table 1

Number of G5 teams in Preseason and Final AP 25, by year:

Year: Preseason Top 25:.................Final Top 25:

2019: 1 team..................................7 teams (G5 "hit rate:" 16.6%)

2018: 2 teams.................................5 teams (+ Army; G5 "hit rate:" 40%)

2017: 1 team..................................3 teams (G5 "hit rate: 33.3%)

2016: 0 team..................................3 teams (G5 "hit rate:" 0%)

2015: 1 team..................................2 teams (G5 "hit rate: 50%)

2014: 0 team..................................2 teams (G5 "hit rate:" 0%)

2013: 1 team..................................2 teams (G5 "hit rate: 50%)

.
Their average G5 "hit rate" (i.e., accurate G5 prediction rate) between 2013 and 2019 has been an abysmal 25% (6 predicted top 25 G5 teams to 24 actual G5 teams in the final AP Top 25), and has never exceeded 50%.

The Table above shows that the preseason AP Top 25 underestimates of the number of G5 final AP top 25 teams have increased, from 100% (1 out of 2) in 2013 to 600% (1 out of 7) in 2019).


.
From all outward appearances, the sports writers and broadcasters who vote in the preseason AP Top 25 rankings don't seem to have had the slightest inkling that the number of G5 top 25 quality teams has increased considerably since the P5/G5 system began in 2012-13.

CBS College Sports way too early preseason top 25:

18. Cincinnati

It's a surprise Luke Fickell is still at Cincinnati. He has posted back-to-back 11-win seasons and has an Ohio State pedigree to back him up. The Bearcats should be favored to win the AAC with the return of their quarterback and top two runners. Most of the AAC's top defense also comes back.

19. Memphis

The Tigers aren't going away with the return of Brady White at quarterback. There was further continuity with assistant Ryan Silverfield taking over for Mike Norvell. The Tigers should be explosive offensively. Receiver Damonte Coxie and Kenneth Gainwell are also back. The Group of Five berth could come down to another battle with Cincinnati.

22. UCF

The Knights haven't gone anywhere after three straight 10-win (at least) seasons. As a true freshman, Dillion Gabriel threw for 29 touchdowns and 3,600 yards. UCF lost three games last seasons by a total of seven points.

Maybe just maybe, things are looking up for the AAC!!

Where is the App State fan who was so quick to congratulate Memphis on being the second ranked AP G5 school behind them after losing to Penn St.?

(01-15-2020 04:56 PM)tharmon15 Wrote:  Where is the App State fan who was so quick to congratulate Memphis on being the second ranked AP G5 school behind them after losing to Penn St.?

He obviously didn't watch the game, lol.

Ironically, according to the Colley Matrix.... SMU is top 25 and UCF isn’t. So that should be the real top 25, since we all bow down to the Matrix. Right?

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Is Ditka driving the bus?

(01-15-2020 02:55 PM)vick mike Wrote:  I don’t see any reason why all 4 top 25 American teams shouldn’t at least maintain their spots preseason next year. Each team should at least be as good if not better. Congratulations to Memphis, Navy, Cincinnati and UCF.

3 out of those 4 teams bring back their starting QBs...as Navy just lost their all-time record setting QB...so that will be a HUGE hole they have to fill.

(01-16-2020 10:20 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Ironically, according to the Colley Matrix.... SMU is top 25 and UCF isn’t. So that should be the real top 25, since we all bow down to the Matrix. Right?

No one cares that USF is again not ranked and irrelevant. Stop trying to flame or involve your team in posts that don't pertain to you.

(01-15-2020 02:20 PM)TripleA Wrote:  Final Colley Matrix has 4 AAC teams Top 25, with UCF just outside at #27.

8. Memphis
13. Navy
16. Cincinnati
24. SMU

I see that as WAAAAAY more accurate than the AP. I really feel like we were about the 8th best team in college football this year. I might quibble with Cincinnati being too low @ 16. Maybe 10 - 12. Navy's about right.

(01-16-2020 10:45 AM)The Knight Time Wrote:  

(01-16-2020 10:20 AM)mtmedlin Wrote:  Ironically, according to the Colley Matrix.... SMU is top 25 and UCF isn’t. So that should be the real top 25, since we all bow down to the Matrix. Right?

No one cares that USF is again not ranked and irrelevant. Stop trying to flame or involve your team in posts that don't pertain to you.

This fan is just salty his arch-rival is once again ranked to finish a season while his own school is once again not.

There is also a high possibility his arch-rival will once again be preseason ranked for the 2020 season while his school will once again not be.

(01-15-2020 03:22 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:05 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

1. I find it surprising that Cincinnati was the best defensive team Memphis played outside of (maybe) Ole Miss.

2. Cincinnati had a carousel at the O-line and the last thing that would've gave Ohio State a game is a young inexperienced O-line which ended up causing our starting quarterback to get hurt. I don't think there was anyway UC could win that game but if they didn't lose their guard while starting a kid who only had being playing college football a couple years and learning offensive line for one I'm sure 40 - 0 would've definitely not happened

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Top G5 teams can maybe hang with a disinterested Clemson when they’re having a bad day- like UNC almost (and maybe should have) beating Clemson the week after App beat UNC.

But a motivated Clemson destroys us. No knock on anyone, Clemson beats any team this year except LSU.

I don't think it's impossible for a G5 team to be the best team in the nation. I genuinely believe the UCF team from a couple years ago with Milton, Griffin, etc could have beaten any team in the country that year

Don't think I believe UCF would have won in the playoffs that year but I do believe they deserved a chance to try!

(01-16-2020 10:34 AM)bearcat29 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Is Ditka driving the bus?

Only if you want him to?

Look, I know Cincinnati would have a hell of a time beating Clemson but consider Cincinnati beat almost every team they played in a very good conference with half of their O-line injured and the projected starting left tackle got shafted by Michigan and NCAA. their best DB injured, change of pace back injured, their up and coming star RB kicked off the team, probably their second or third best DB playing with a foot injury and playing a True Freshman at corner and Redshirt Freshman at Safety.

By time they played the bowl game most of the o-line was healthy and the young kids had a season of football under their belt. I'm just saying the team UC took to the bowl game could have looked impressive against Clemson. Nobody said win but challenged them in the football game.

(01-16-2020 01:39 PM)Yosef84 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:22 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:05 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

1. I find it surprising that Cincinnati was the best defensive team Memphis played outside of (maybe) Ole Miss.

2. Cincinnati had a carousel at the O-line and the last thing that would've gave Ohio State a game is a young inexperienced O-line which ended up causing our starting quarterback to get hurt. I don't think there was anyway UC could win that game but if they didn't lose their guard while starting a kid who only had being playing college football a couple years and learning offensive line for one I'm sure 40 - 0 would've definitely not happened

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Top G5 teams can maybe hang with a disinterested Clemson when they’re having a bad day- like UNC almost (and maybe should have) beating Clemson the week after App beat UNC.

But a motivated Clemson destroys us. No knock on anyone, Clemson beats any team this year except LSU.

I don't think it's impossible for a G5 team to be the best team in the nation. I genuinely believe the UCF team from a couple years ago with Milton, Griffin, etc could have beaten any team in the country that year

Don't think I believe UCF would have won in the playoffs that year but I do believe they deserved a chance to try!

I think UCF would've been able to play GA or OK relatively close if not win. neither of those team screamed unbeatable. Hell GA beat Auburn by 7 points as well and Oklahoma lost to Iowa State. Alabama and Clemson was a different story but then again Clemson could only score 6 on Alabama. UCF would've truly had a chance in that playoff and that what really makes them being left out as frustrating as it was.

(01-16-2020 10:44 AM)KnightLight Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 02:55 PM)vick mike Wrote:  I don’t see any reason why all 4 top 25 American teams shouldn’t at least maintain their spots preseason next year. Each team should at least be as good if not better. Congratulations to Memphis, Navy, Cincinnati and UCF.

3 out of those 4 teams bring back their starting QBs...as Navy just lost their all-time record setting QB...so that will be a HUGE hole they have to fill.

Echoes of 2015 when we lost all-time record setting QB...then went to the CCG.

However, I think I've already said I will find it hard to muster up much heartburn if we get lowered expectations, especially nationally, after losing Perry.

(01-16-2020 02:03 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  

(01-16-2020 01:39 PM)Yosef84 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:22 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:05 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

1. I find it surprising that Cincinnati was the best defensive team Memphis played outside of (maybe) Ole Miss.

2. Cincinnati had a carousel at the O-line and the last thing that would've gave Ohio State a game is a young inexperienced O-line which ended up causing our starting quarterback to get hurt. I don't think there was anyway UC could win that game but if they didn't lose their guard while starting a kid who only had being playing college football a couple years and learning offensive line for one I'm sure 40 - 0 would've definitely not happened

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Top G5 teams can maybe hang with a disinterested Clemson when they’re having a bad day- like UNC almost (and maybe should have) beating Clemson the week after App beat UNC.

But a motivated Clemson destroys us. No knock on anyone, Clemson beats any team this year except LSU.

I don't think it's impossible for a G5 team to be the best team in the nation. I genuinely believe the UCF team from a couple years ago with Milton, Griffin, etc could have beaten any team in the country that year

Don't think I believe UCF would have won in the playoffs that year but I do believe they deserved a chance to try!

I think UCF would've been able to play GA or OK relatively close if not win. neither of those team screamed unbeatable. Hell GA beat Auburn by 7 points as well and Oklahoma lost to Iowa State. Alabama and Clemson was a different story but then again Clemson could only score 6 on Alabama. UCF would've truly had a chance in that playoff and that what really makes them being left out as frustrating as it was.

Yep. I agree. That UCF team would have been competitive and would have given us (football fans) some great games in all likelihood. They should have been given a chance to prove it on the field. That's supposed to be what football is all about, but the Sanctified 5 can't stand the idea of an outsider challenging their supremacy.

(01-16-2020 02:03 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  

(01-16-2020 01:39 PM)Yosef84 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:22 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:05 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

1. I find it surprising that Cincinnati was the best defensive team Memphis played outside of (maybe) Ole Miss.

2. Cincinnati had a carousel at the O-line and the last thing that would've gave Ohio State a game is a young inexperienced O-line which ended up causing our starting quarterback to get hurt. I don't think there was anyway UC could win that game but if they didn't lose their guard while starting a kid who only had being playing college football a couple years and learning offensive line for one I'm sure 40 - 0 would've definitely not happened

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Top G5 teams can maybe hang with a disinterested Clemson when they’re having a bad day- like UNC almost (and maybe should have) beating Clemson the week after App beat UNC.

But a motivated Clemson destroys us. No knock on anyone, Clemson beats any team this year except LSU.

I don't think it's impossible for a G5 team to be the best team in the nation. I genuinely believe the UCF team from a couple years ago with Milton, Griffin, etc could have beaten any team in the country that year

Don't think I believe UCF would have won in the playoffs that year but I do believe they deserved a chance to try!

I think UCF would've been able to play GA or OK relatively close if not win. neither of those team screamed unbeatable. Hell GA beat Auburn by 7 points as well and Oklahoma lost to Iowa State. Alabama and Clemson was a different story but then again Clemson could only score 6 on Alabama. UCF would've truly had a chance in that playoff and that what really makes them being left out as frustrating as it was.

Yep. Milton actually played uncharacteristically poorly for most of the 1st half (probably nerves) and missed at least 2 wide open TDs. That game could have been a 14-17 point win. UCF's WRs were beating Auburn left and right and they had no answer for Milton's legs.

We had 4 guys on that team currently playing on Sundays. They absolutely could have won the first round game and competed, at least as good as Clemson did, in a Bama matchup.

(01-16-2020 02:03 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  

(01-16-2020 01:39 PM)Yosef84 Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:22 PM)Nameless Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 03:05 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(01-15-2020 01:47 PM)OptimisticCoach Wrote:  A few thoughts

1. I find it surprising that Cincinnati was the best defensive team Memphis played outside of (maybe) Ole Miss.

2. Cincinnati had a carousel at the O-line and the last thing that would've gave Ohio State a game is a young inexperienced O-line which ended up causing our starting quarterback to get hurt. I don't think there was anyway UC could win that game but if they didn't lose their guard while starting a kid who only had being playing college football a couple years and learning offensive line for one I'm sure 40 - 0 would've definitely not happened

3. I don't care who's not coaching and what player decided not to play Boston College is a P5 team with "P5 talent" and UC essentially shut out their offense.

I believe UC could've played with Clemson with the team they took to BC. Do I believe they would've won? That's a tall ask, but I do think they would've gave them a run for their money.

Consider Cincinnati made Memphis look human on offense for most of both games they played while Penn State couldn't stop them. I have complete confidence that healthy Cincinnati can play with MOST teams in college football.

Top G5 teams can maybe hang with a disinterested Clemson when they’re having a bad day- like UNC almost (and maybe should have) beating Clemson the week after App beat UNC.

But a motivated Clemson destroys us. No knock on anyone, Clemson beats any team this year except LSU.

I don't think it's impossible for a G5 team to be the best team in the nation. I genuinely believe the UCF team from a couple years ago with Milton, Griffin, etc could have beaten any team in the country that year

Don't think I believe UCF would have won in the playoffs that year but I do believe they deserved a chance to try!

I think UCF would've been able to play GA or OK relatively close if not win. neither of those team screamed unbeatable. Hell GA beat Auburn by 7 points as well and Oklahoma lost to Iowa State. Alabama and Clemson was a different story but then again Clemson could only score 6 on Alabama. UCF would've truly had a chance in that playoff and that what really makes them being left out as frustrating as it was.

Make that Kansas State beating OK, not Iowa State.