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2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
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ShadyP Offline
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Post: #21
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 10:20 AM)PurpleStreamers Wrote:  
(01-13-2020 09:27 AM)ShadyP Wrote:  The outcome to the game was disappointing for sure....NDSU was just a tad better than we were on Saturday. I think we were prepared for the run heavy offense, but not quite so QB run heavy where Lance ran the ball 30 times (I think he was running @10 times per game all season). And to be honest the big runs from Lance came off of passing situations when the play broke down. I think this was the first time all season the DL dealt with a QB this big/strong/fast where they did not effectively corral him. We did a poor job keeping him corralled by maintaining rush lanes. Lance was able to escape up the middle.

The fake FG was a great job by their coaching staff to find something on film and take advantage of it.

This was a team loss.......not sure why anyone would want to single out Ben as he played a solid game. The last play call was not the play call I would have made but Polk was open. I am sure Ben would like that one back.....saw him open and tried to lob a dart vs just zipping it over there or leading him. Still the NDSU guy made a nice play and int coming off his man.

I think the team will be just fine next year with the talent on the roster. I find it odd those saying the HS recruiting does not look as good as prior years.....why.....not enough stars for ya......I remind y'all that Latrelle Palmer was a late commit with zero stars and was probably the most impactful freshman on the team. Have a little faith.

Doesn't happen all the time ha, but I'm completely with Shady here.
WHAT in the world makes anyone think recruiting isn't there? Latrelle and Jalen Green alone were huge finds and we basically redshirted everyone else. No doubt we're graduating a lot of talent, but it's also that it finally feels like aside from Amos and maybe Fornadel it just feels bigger because it's the last of the big names from this incredible four-year run.

But there are some really core pieces coming back and the Dukes will be super strong up the middle on both sides. Not saying it'll be easy, but I'd much rather be replacing skill players with JMU's track record in that regard than up the middle.

For example, a healthy Ukwu (who looked like a star in the making before the injury) and Jalen Green getting bigger are going to look pretty darn good making up for sacks and TFL's we're losing from Carter/Daka with Mike Greene and Adeeb clogging everything up again. Plus word is there's a P5 transfer on the way on DL even if I don't pencil those in till I see them in uniform and in class. Maybe Colclough can give us something here too?

Azanama had already supplanted Word as LB2 this year but finding his running mate will be the most important thing on the roster for next year imo. Amos and MJ Hampton will be a big help to whoever is playing CB next year even if I worry a little about McCormick and Carroll. Even worrying about them though, those two are experienced players at this point. Wonder if there's any chance Austin Douglas actually plays DB next year too?

The running game brings back the entire backfield plus the best player on the team in front of them in Fornadel along with Truvell Wilson and hopefully some combination of Bethea, Gillespie (not sure if we've heard if he's really coming back), Fishpaw, Timming (who's played a bit), and Kidwell plus maybe something from the UConn transfer. Painter at TE is also a very strong blocker and hopefully continues to develop as a receiver.

WR will be another big need, but Dean and Brown have certainly played a lot of football for the Dukes. Hopefully we see 2018 Dean again. Adu played well when he had opportunities this year and we know we have the UMass transfer there too.

Oh yeah, and all the specialists (Harry, Ratke, Amos, Davis, and Miller are all back) so we don't have to worry about unknowns there. (No accounting for the way we coach specials though ha).

Finally, I grew to love DiNucci, and he played great enough to get us to Frisco this year. I'll defend him forever at this point. But I also can't say I really believe that CoJo, Gage, or QB-TBD is going to be the difference that sinks us. If anything, it will be not having weapons at WR and everyone just stacking the box that hurts the next starter till they prove otherwise more than some talent difference.

Anyhow, proud to be a Duke and it'll be fun next year. If we beat Delaware Week 1, only the UNC game is an L and only the Villanova game scares me on the schedule at this point.

Oh yeah, I also just really hope we can keep Hetherman around.

04-cheers
01-13-2020 11:39 AM
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arlingtonduke Offline
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Post: #22
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 10:07 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  1) I would of run Palmer at the three with 7 seconds to go with timeouts in hand.
- i have heard this, but i dont like that. i could envision, palmer getting to the 1, struggling for yards, NDSU defenders holding him up as the clock expires and the refs hold their whistle. same play happened at akron years ago. on first, i would have thrown a jump ball to riley or a slant to polk. if that play fails, you have time and have palmer run it on the next play.

the killer was we had the ball at the 17 with 38 seconds, by the time we ran a play, we had 17 seconds left. 21 seconds for 1 play. should have called a timeout. 2nd. we had the ball at the 48 with 228 left and 2 timeouts. no reason we should have run out of time at the end.

I agree 100% I could not believe that a timeout was not called with 38 seconds to go. That is the biggest issue I have, we created more pressure for ourselves battling the clock and the Defense. The clock should not been an issue on that drive.
01-13-2020 12:07 PM
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VBVA_Dukes Offline
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Post: #23
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
I couldn't make the trip this year, so I watched it at home, but it felt eerily similar to 2018 when we had chances but we made a mistake and let the game get away. Trey Lance is a great player, but their offense was very one dimensional on Saturday. The defense did what they could to isolate and stop Trey Lance, but 3 penalties in particular ultimately lead to touchdowns. Trey Lance is not a good passer, but 2 PI's in the first half on overthrown balls were terrible. The facemask by Daka when NDSU was stopped on 3rd and long really hurt too. Inadvertent and untimely. Plus we gave up 2 gimmicky trick play touchdowns. Then there was the 44 yard scamble on 3rd and long with a very obvious hold by the TE. Everyone at my watch party was screaming at the blatancy. At the end of the day, if you take back 1 of the bad 1st quarter PI's and stop 1 of the trick play TD's, Ratke makes the 2nd quarter FG, and we manage the clock better in the 4th quarter, JMU was in a great position to win the game. We had our chances, but didn't execute well enough to win on Saturday. Call it out coached, if you will.
01-13-2020 12:19 PM
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Dukes86 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
I'm not so sure we're in that big of trouble next year. Outside of QB (most important for sure), we have good returning pieces everywhere on the roster. Listed out what I see, expect, and an arbitrary grade on how we fair at this moment at each position:

QB: Maloney, CJ (looks like Maloney might be the guy and I bet he really surprises people. I think he blossoms once he's given ownership) - GRADE B-
RB: Percy, Hamilton, Palmer, Vanhorse, Kirlew (loaded and I expect you'll see Palmer take on at least 10-12 carries/game next year) - GRADE: A++
WR: J. Brown, Dean, Ravenel (I expect you'll see a transfer if the young guys like Adu, Sims, and R. Brown beneath these don't step up) - GRADE: C/C-
TE: Painter (Bullock likely gets his feet wet as he was a good recruit. Where were Carlton and Cheathem this year?? Next year??) - GRADE: C+
OL: Fornadel, Bethea, Wilson, Gillespie (hopefully), Timming (plus the transfer, Kidwell, Fishpaw, and Glavin. Solid depth, Fornadel the stud) - GRADE: B+
K: Ratke - GRADE: A
P: HOK - GRADE: A

DL: Atariwa, Greene, Green, Ukwu, Groulx (plus Thurston was a highly rated guy and Colclough could contribute. Definitely lose a lot in the pass rush) - GRADE: B
LB: Tucker-Dorsey, Azanama, W. Davis, M. Jackson (plus Ayamel who was also highly rated could get some time. Jackson started a good bit in 2018) - GRADE: B-
S: Amos and Hampton (plus Que Reid and Chris Chukwuneke played a lot of special teams and in the rotation some) - GRADE: B+
CB: McCormick, Carroll (Norwood might slot in if he comes in and wins it. Currence could challenge here too. Need more depth, though.) - GRADE: C
01-13-2020 01:03 PM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #25
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 10:23 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  
(01-13-2020 10:11 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  
(01-13-2020 10:07 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  1) I would of run Palmer at the three with 7 seconds to go with timeouts in hand.
- i have heard this, but i dont like that. i could envision, palmer getting to the 1, struggling for yards, NDSU defenders holding him up as the clock expires and the refs hold their whistle. same play happened at akron years ago. on first, i would have thrown a jump ball to riley or a slant to polk. if that play fails, you have time and have palmer run it on the next play.

the killer was we had the ball at the 17 with 38 seconds, by the time we ran a play, we had 17 seconds left. 21 seconds for 1 play. should have called a timeout. 2nd. we had the ball at the 48 with 228 left and 2 timeouts. no reason we should have run out of time at the end.

2) I would of gone for 2 on the first TD, so I knew if I would need 1 or 2 more possessions.
- wrong move. you always save the 2 point conversion to the end. if we miss the 2 on the first possession, you essentially are out of the game with the time that remained.

3) In the 2nd quarter I would of gone for the 4th and 7, especially after Ethan missed the first attempt.
- ethan made the first attempt. he hit the upright on the second. i am fine with the fg in that spot. what is the conversion rate on 4th and 7, 30%?. what is ethan's % from 39 yards? 50% +. he was 80% on the year for fgs. sure, easy to say we should have gone, given he missed, but you have to take the 3 there.

Really disagree on 2. If you go for it on the first and miss you’re essentially out of the game... If you go for it on the second and miss there’s no ‘essentially’, the game is over. Go for the first one, if you don’t get it then it’s time to decide whether or not an onside kick is needed.

if you miss the 2 point conversion on the 2nd touchdown, you can still onside kick.

if you miss the 2 point conversion on the first td, being down 9, your team is mentally defeated. sure, you can onside, but the conversion rate is 15% and now they have the ball at your 50. game over. you never go for 2 until you have to.

As I said, I knew these three were debatable.

Here's the deal on the two point conversion.....

I googled 2 point conversion % in the NFL, and it said - 47.5% success rate.
I googled the 2 point conv 5 for college and they estimated 40%-55% so roughly the same thing.

That means most 2 point conversions are not made.

The way it played out, an onsite kick would not of worked with only a second or two left in the game.

Now if we knew we needed two scores (which per the %s was likely he case) when we got the ball with just under 3 minutes, we would of known we needed to be more aggressive on play calling, and perhaps not switching running backs between each play allowing NDSU to use an additional 20 seconds a play.

Everyone talks about the 20 seconds wasted in the last minute, but the 20 seconds per play switching running backs at the beginning of the drive wasted just as much/more time on multiple plays during the last drive.
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2020 03:52 PM by Dukester.)
01-13-2020 03:50 PM
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KickItToScotty Offline
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Post: #26
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 03:50 PM)Dukester Wrote:  
(01-13-2020 10:23 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  
(01-13-2020 10:11 AM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  
(01-13-2020 10:07 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  1) I would of run Palmer at the three with 7 seconds to go with timeouts in hand.
- i have heard this, but i dont like that. i could envision, palmer getting to the 1, struggling for yards, NDSU defenders holding him up as the clock expires and the refs hold their whistle. same play happened at akron years ago. on first, i would have thrown a jump ball to riley or a slant to polk. if that play fails, you have time and have palmer run it on the next play.

the killer was we had the ball at the 17 with 38 seconds, by the time we ran a play, we had 17 seconds left. 21 seconds for 1 play. should have called a timeout. 2nd. we had the ball at the 48 with 228 left and 2 timeouts. no reason we should have run out of time at the end.

2) I would of gone for 2 on the first TD, so I knew if I would need 1 or 2 more possessions.
- wrong move. you always save the 2 point conversion to the end. if we miss the 2 on the first possession, you essentially are out of the game with the time that remained.

3) In the 2nd quarter I would of gone for the 4th and 7, especially after Ethan missed the first attempt.
- ethan made the first attempt. he hit the upright on the second. i am fine with the fg in that spot. what is the conversion rate on 4th and 7, 30%?. what is ethan's % from 39 yards? 50% +. he was 80% on the year for fgs. sure, easy to say we should have gone, given he missed, but you have to take the 3 there.

Really disagree on 2. If you go for it on the first and miss you’re essentially out of the game... If you go for it on the second and miss there’s no ‘essentially’, the game is over. Go for the first one, if you don’t get it then it’s time to decide whether or not an onside kick is needed.

if you miss the 2 point conversion on the 2nd touchdown, you can still onside kick.

if you miss the 2 point conversion on the first td, being down 9, your team is mentally defeated. sure, you can onside, but the conversion rate is 15% and now they have the ball at your 50. game over. you never go for 2 until you have to.

As I said, I knew these three were debatable.

Here's the deal on the two point conversion.....

I googled 2 point conversion % in the NFL, and it said - 47.5% success rate.
I googled the 2 point conv 5 for college and they estimated 40%-55% so roughly the same thing.

That means most 2 point conversions are not made.

The way it played out, an onsite kick would not of worked with only a second or two left in the game.

Now if we knew we needed two scores (which per the %s was likely he case) when we got the ball with just under 3 minutes, we would of known we needed to be more aggressive on play calling, and perhaps not switching running backs between each play allowing NDSU to use an additional 20 seconds a play.

Everyone talks about the 20 seconds wasted in the last minute, but the 20 seconds per play switching running backs at the beginning of the drive wasted just as much/more time on multiple plays during the last drive.

I’d much rather know where you stand. Obviously some more urgency would’ve been a good idea regardless considering that, if not for the interception, we would’ve run out of time before we ran out of downs. But NDSU is gonna run as much clock as they can whether it’s a 7, 8, or 9 point game. I’d rather JMU know whether we need time for two possessions or if we’re down 7 and are better off running it down to where they don’t have time to get in to field goal range after we score.
01-13-2020 04:05 PM
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PGJMU2 Offline
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Post: #27
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
even after we scored to make it an 8 pt game, espn win probablity still had NDSU as a 90% winner. 50% chance of missing the 2pt conversion and if that happens and 9 points down, we probably go to a 2% chance of winning. either way, chances of winning the game were low at that point. Make the two point conversion, and maybe we go to a 15% chance of winning. I am of the mind you stay in the game and fargo (ha) the 2pt conversion until needed. i just think mentally staying in the game outweighs knowing you need two scores. sure you know you need two scores, but you know you have a 2% chance of winning.

same as in hoops. you dont need the 3, take the two if given and extend the game. who knows what is to come in the game.
01-13-2020 04:14 PM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #28
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 04:14 PM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  even after we scored to make it an 8 pt game, espn win probablity still had NDSU as a 90% winner. 50% chance of missing the 2pt conversion and if that happens and 9 points down, we probably go to a 2% chance of winning. either way, chances of winning the game were low at that point. Make the two point conversion, and maybe we go to a 15% chance of winning. I am of the mind you stay in the game and fargo (ha) the 2pt conversion until needed. i just think mentally staying in the game outweighs knowing you need two scores. sure you know you need two scores, but you know you have a 2% chance of winning.

same as in hoops. you dont need the 3, take the two if given and extend the game. who knows what is to come in the game.

Yes - the most viable argument against is it could kill momentum.

But for me I play much different knowing I need 2 scores with 3 minutes to go. In that scenario I know I need to leave at least 40 seconds on the clock to kick recover an on sides kick and get in FG range. If I want to make it more interesting to the fans, I would likely kick the extra point. If I was trying to win the game I would go for two.

Sorry about using %s, but that's the way I see things and how I would coach, and hope my coach would coach.
01-13-2020 04:28 PM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #29
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 08:59 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  I think the whole North Dakota State fans are cool thing- they were cordial and respectful after the first game- probably the same after this one but why wouldn't they be? We have been a good sparring partner- we've made them work and sweat but they have won each Championship game so of course they are going to be pleasant. What if we had won- I think then you'd see a different side. Of course they are arrogant- they have no reason not to be. They have presided over a dynasty now that spans multiple coaches and groups of players. They walk around like they own Frisco and they should based on how much they have won there. I just think had JMU won you'd hear a lot of the sour grapes stuff where some of those seeds were planted before the game was played- that we take too many transfers, etc.

My comments about their friendliness was based on pre-game. Post game they are nice as can be. I had a few of their fans on the way out say nice game. Before the game I initiated some communication with them, and it felt a little bit like the Hatfields vs McCoys glances. Not all of them, but a lot.
01-13-2020 04:35 PM
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UofRfan Offline
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Post: #30
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
Statistics and predictive models are always going to say to go for 2 earlier so you know what you need faster and can act accordingly. It is obviously deflating if you don't get it but you were kind of screwed either way.

You are seeing more and more of this advanced theory trickle into the NFL over the past couple years. 5 years ago almost no one was doing stuff like going for 2 after a TD when were down 14 late now its becoming pretty prevalent.
01-13-2020 04:36 PM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #31
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 04:36 PM)UofRfan Wrote:  Statistics and predictive models are always going to say to go for 2 earlier so you know what you need faster and can act accordingly. It is obviously deflating if you don't get it but you were kind of screwed either way.

You are seeing more and more of this advanced theory trickle into the NFL over the past couple years. 5 years ago almost no one was doing stuff like going for 2 after a TD when were down 14 late now its becoming pretty prevalent.

PG's old school, or perhaps its just he thinks the opposite of whatever I think. 04-cheers
01-13-2020 04:41 PM
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KickItToScotty Offline
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Post: #32
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
I don’t think either of those teams were mentally weak enough that the worry about momentum or being mentally defeated outweighs the ability to play on with more info. Again, that info doesn’t really help NDSU much, if any. Offensively they’re trying to run clock and pick up one or two more first downs regardless. Defensively they need one stop and know things are getting pretty urgent for JMU.

For JMU, if we go and get it then we know we want to run the clock down as low as possible before we score. If we go and don’t get it, now you can consider trying the onside kick right now. Either way, you know that after the stop or the onside you need to score quick enough to get the ball back and score again. If you try the onside right away, you might still have the chance to get a stop and score then try another, although you’ll have a long field but you may have a long field after the stop anyway.

If you don’t go, you don’t know whether or not you need an onside at some point and will only get one shot at it if you do. You also end up having to either take too much time and risk it being game over if you don’t convert, or leave too much time on the clock and give them the chance to win it in regulation if you do convert. I just think that waiting for the second touchdown is leaving too much helpful info unknown just because you’re worried about morale. I also think it’s strange that a coach who’s as calm and calculated as Cignetti seems doesn’t see it this way, it’d be more understandable from a more fiery and emotional type of coach like Houston.
01-13-2020 04:44 PM
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Dukesfan1971 Offline
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Post: #33
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
When we got the ball back with just under 3 minutes to go and all of our timeouts, I had visions(delusions)of a Weber State 2017 final of 31-28. It could have been possible with a little urgency.
The end of the first half Weber state 2019 time management/delay of game issues came back to haunt us a bit.
01-13-2020 04:54 PM
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olddawg Offline
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Post: #34
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
Our last play… from a different angle

https://twitter.com/ryanmholloway/status...62945?s=21
01-13-2020 04:58 PM
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Dukester Offline
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RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 04:58 PM)olddawg Wrote:  Our last play… from a different angle

https://twitter.com/ryanmholloway/status...62945?s=21

That's the first time I re-watched. From that angle it appeared Polk was open but the throw was late.
01-13-2020 05:06 PM
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JMUrcc06 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 05:06 PM)Dukester Wrote:  
(01-13-2020 04:58 PM)olddawg Wrote:  Our last play… from a different angle

https://twitter.com/ryanmholloway/status...62945?s=21

That's the first time I re-watched. From that angle it appeared Polk was open but the throw was late.

Polk was open
The throw was a little late
But NDSU safety made a great crashing on the ball play. They did all day, especially in the red-zone. They really played great, it is what it is.

Sucks most for Ben that this is likely his last pass attempt ever - outside of backyard pick-up football - and you could tell that turnovers were on his mind all game, he held onto the ball and took sacks for huge losses all game to avoid any misstep like we haven't seen all season.
01-13-2020 05:11 PM
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JMU85 Offline
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Post: #37
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
I live in Augusta GA area (just moved here in October) and recorded the game via YouTube TV. When I clicked on the NDSU/JMU icon in my YouTubeTV recordings in the app, there was an hour of "Greatest Sports Legends" and 3 hours of the "Border Bowl" which is the HS Football All Star game between South Carolina and Georgia. I guess the FCS gets Rodney Dangerfield'd in SEC country. I might have missed it had I not gone to the game. Did anyone else have issues with their ABC affiliate not showing the game?
01-13-2020 05:35 PM
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PGJMU2 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 05:06 PM)Dukester Wrote:  
(01-13-2020 04:58 PM)olddawg Wrote:  Our last play… from a different angle

https://twitter.com/ryanmholloway/status...62945?s=21

That's the first time I re-watched. From that angle it appeared Polk was open but the throw was late.

aw man, yep, db read it and came off of riley to jump the pass to Polk. lob to Riley would have been open in the back corner. probably not a bad call by the coaches. if you are ndsu, you are thinking lob to riley. DB just made a play.

really cant blame Ben. Even though it may have been late, i still dont think the pass gets there if earlier. Play was designed to go to Polk and he beat his man and was open if the db doesnt come off riley.
(This post was last modified: 01-13-2020 06:21 PM by PGJMU2.)
01-13-2020 06:12 PM
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JMU1987UVA1998 Offline
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RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
(01-13-2020 01:03 PM)Dukes86 Wrote:  I'm not so sure we're in that big of trouble next year. Outside of QB (most important for sure), we have good returning pieces everywhere on the roster. Listed out what I see, expect, and an arbitrary grade on how we fair at this moment at each position:

QB: Maloney, CJ (looks like Maloney might be the guy and I bet he really surprises people. I think he blossoms once he's given ownership) - GRADE B-
RB: Percy, Hamilton, Palmer, Vanhorse, Kirlew (loaded and I expect you'll see Palmer take on at least 10-12 carries/game next year) - GRADE: A++
WR: J. Brown, Dean, Ravenel (I expect you'll see a transfer if the young guys like Adu, Sims, and R. Brown beneath these don't step up) - GRADE: C/C-
TE: Painter (Bullock likely gets his feet wet as he was a good recruit. Where were Carlton and Cheathem this year?? Next year??) - GRADE: C+
OL: Fornadel, Bethea, Wilson, Gillespie (hopefully), Timming (plus the transfer, Kidwell, Fishpaw, and Glavin. Solid depth, Fornadel the stud) - GRADE: B+
K: Ratke - GRADE: A
P: HOK - GRADE: A

DL: Atariwa, Greene, Green, Ukwu, Groulx (plus Thurston was a highly rated guy and Colclough could contribute. Definitely lose a lot in the pass rush) - GRADE: B
LB: Tucker-Dorsey, Azanama, W. Davis, M. Jackson (plus Ayamel who was also highly rated could get some time. Jackson started a good bit in 2018) - GRADE: B-
S: Amos and Hampton (plus Que Reid and Chris Chukwuneke played a lot of special teams and in the rotation some) - GRADE: B+
CB: McCormick, Carroll (Norwood might slot in if he comes in and wins it. Currence could challenge here too. Need more depth, though.) - GRADE: C

Hoping Kris Thornton who transferred in from VMI can replace Polk. He had a 120 catches for almost 1,350 yards in two seasons at VMI before sitting out this season.
01-13-2020 08:02 PM
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14SemesterDuke Offline
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Posts: 140
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I Root For: JMU
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Post: #40
RE: 2019 FCS Championship Game Postmortem
Still not over it. Huge Ravens fan and they decided to sh*t the bed too. Turned out to be a disastrous sports weekend for me. Make me question why I care so much.
01-13-2020 09:12 PM
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