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We were outcoached
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Yesolitis Offline
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Post: #81
RE: We were outcoached
I read some comments about holds. Ok, yeah, they happen and you have to even expect them to happen. However, what I saw was a NDSU team that was dominant in blocking. Many threads talked about this game being won in the trenches. If that had been the case, JMU would have won. We did IMO win the battle of the trenches against the best team in the FCS. However, their blocking in open spaces was just not something JMU seemed to have an answer for. Personally, I do not see it as a bunch of holds, but a downhill mentality that was superbly executed in open space. As was said, sometimes you just have to tip your cap (as infuriated as I was watching that game!).
01-17-2020 04:36 AM
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Polish Hammer Offline
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Post: #82
RE: We were outcoached
There are holds on every play in the trenches. However, when the hold is blatant and out on the edge or right at the point of a key cut that springs a play and is not called it’s inexcusable. None more egregious than that 44 yard scamper by the QB on 3rd and long; instead of getting 7 they should’ve been punting.
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2020 07:40 AM by Polish Hammer.)
01-17-2020 06:38 AM
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NJDuke97 Offline
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Post: #83
RE: We were outcoached
Imo our guys could do a better job selling the holds similar to how N Dakota State sold the pass interferences.

The refs probably were going to call holding unless it was obvious. After they gashed is time and time again for big plays we should have tried to sell one.
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2020 08:29 AM by NJDuke97.)
01-17-2020 08:23 AM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #84
RE: We were outcoached
(01-17-2020 08:23 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  Imo our guys could do a better job selling the holds similar to how N Dakota State sold the pass interferences.

The refs probably were going to call holding unless it was obvious. After they gashed is time and time again for big plays we should have tried to sell one.

I think you've got to see he holds as well.
01-17-2020 08:47 AM
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ShadyP Offline
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Post: #85
RE: We were outcoached
(01-17-2020 08:47 AM)Dukester Wrote:  
(01-17-2020 08:23 AM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  Imo our guys could do a better job selling the holds similar to how N Dakota State sold the pass interferences.

The refs probably were going to call holding unless it was obvious. After they gashed is time and time again for big plays we should have tried to sell one.

I think you've got to see he holds as well.

Agree, if they can see the Tutt hold and call it they can see just fine.

Based on the rule I think what Tutt did was fine. You are allowed to grab/hold the jersey of a WR if you do not turn or impeded their progress which I don't think Tutt did. It is allowed so DBs can keep track of where WRs are while in coverage.

I also think FBS officials do a much better job at saying a ball is uncatchable and not throwing or picking up a flag. At least one of those early PIs was way overthrown and uncatchable.
01-17-2020 09:08 AM
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KickItToScotty Offline
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Post: #86
RE: We were outcoached
You never know how trying to sell it is gonna go for you though. I’ve always had the opinion that there’s nothing wrong with a little embellishment to make sure a legit penalty/foul is noticed, it’s just trying to create a call out of nothing that I don’t like. Some refs though will just not call a penalty if they think you tried to sell it, even if they know it was legitimately a penalty.
01-17-2020 10:40 AM
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JMUNation Offline
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Post: #87
RE: We were outcoached
I agree that NDSUs down field blocking was very good. It was how good runs turned into TDs. The defensive play on the WR screen to Riley was game changing. That play should have gone for a TD but the CB did not let Dylan get to his body. He hand fought Dylan and got him off balance then used that leverage to take Dylan to the ground. After that, he made a text book tackle of Riley. A great play by the CB!

We were in the red zone five times and had a sixth drive stall at the 23 yard line. We came away with 20 points on those six drives. We moved the ball on a great defense. We had our opportunities. Defensively, we gave up 21 points. Was it our best defensive effort of the year? No, but it was enough to win if our offense could have finished drives and our special teams did not miss a field goal and give up a TD.

Yes, the coaches got out maneuvered several times but our players did not execute in several key situations too. NDSU made less mistakes than us as well. As always, they didn’t beat themselves.
01-20-2020 10:29 AM
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Purple Offline
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Post: #88
RE: We were outcoached
I found it very unCiglike to depart from the safest, most conservative route to the endzone from three yards out with two plays and a timeout left and a proven beast like Latrele in the backfield.

1. Three things can happen when you pass the ball. Two of them are BAD! Terrible odds. Compound that by the fact that we were working with very short field, 13 yards from the endline, jamming half a dozen or more defenders into a small space, and the odds of an unsuccessful pass play increased exponentially.

2. Latrele averaged 5.5 yards per carry for the game, nearly all of it hard-fought yards, pushing the smelly Bison defense downfield. Why not line up Dylan Stapleton or another big body behind Latrele to help push him into the endzone, if necessary, and frankly, I don't think it would be. Latrele was blowing defenders off the LOS and dragging them downfield.

3. The single weakest part of the smelly Bison game was rush defense. WHY didn't we expolit that, especially on the last two plays of the game. Why was it necessary for Nooch to throw 33 passes? Why weren't there more designed runs for Nooch? A tremendous weapon at our disposal that would have exploited the weakest part of the Bison game, and we simply didn't do it. Rather, we made it much easier for them to defend us.

Our players made some mistakes, especially on defense, but our offense was plenty capable of winning that game. We simply didn't exploit our greatest strengths against our opponent's greatest weakness, and we took unnecessary risks. Coaching!

Oh well, live and learn. On to next year!
(This post was last modified: 01-25-2020 01:28 PM by Purple.)
01-25-2020 01:27 PM
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Polish Hammer Offline
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Post: #89
RE: We were outcoached
1. Three things can happen and two bad, but 70.9% good this season so I’ll take those odds.
2. Same story, three things can happen and 2 bad. BTW Palmer mashed those yards against a defense stretched out not knowing run or pass, compound the defense jammed in short space and the chances of success are reduced. Run it and fumble and we’d have every Monday morning QB on here saying how dumb it was to run with a true freshman that only played 1/2 the season. When the game is on the line you put the ball in your best player’s hands, they did - NDSU made a great defensive play.
3. Some things the players blew and some the defense stopped them and at some point you tip your hat, but they were coached up enough to succeed. I still maintain NDSU had zero game plan outside of Lance, so they were lucky the couple trick plays worked because they had zero passing or running game otherwise.

05-deadhorse
(This post was last modified: 01-25-2020 10:18 PM by Polish Hammer.)
01-25-2020 09:48 PM
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Purple Offline
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Post: #90
RE: We were outcoached
So, the last play was 70.9% good, huh? OK. You must have watched a different game than me.
01-26-2020 10:48 AM
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Polish Hammer Offline
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Post: #91
RE: We were outcoached
No, but obviously you’re comprehension appears to be operating at 70.9%. You claim passing is 2 parts bad and one good. Don’t confuse possibility with probability. While the results mean a completion is 1 of 3 results, when his completion percentage on the season is 70.9% you’re wayyyyy off.

(01-25-2020 01:27 PM)Purple Wrote:  . Three things can happen when you pass the ball. Two of them are BAD! Terrible odds.
1) Completion 70.9% (268-378)
2) Incompletion 29.1% (110-378)
3) Interception 1.587% (6-378)

So speaking of terrible odds, the 1.587% won out. Tip your hat to the defender jumping the route.

05-deadhorse05-deadhorse
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2020 12:07 PM by Polish Hammer.)
01-26-2020 11:37 AM
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JMU_Newbill Offline
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Post: #92
We were outcoached
(01-26-2020 11:37 AM)Polish Hammer Wrote:  No, but obviously you’re comprehension appears to be operating at 70.9%. You claim passing is 2 parts bad and one good. Don’t confuse possibility with probability. While the results mean a completion is 1 of 3 results, when his completion percentage on the season is 70.9% you’re wayyyyy off.

(01-25-2020 01:27 PM)Purple Wrote:  . Three things can happen when you pass the ball. Two of them are BAD! Terrible odds.
1) Completion 70.9% (268-378)
2) Incompletion 29.1% (110-378)
3) Interception 1.587% (6-378)

So speaking of terrible odds, the 1.587% won out. Tip your hat to the defender jumping the route.

05-deadhorse05-deadhorse


It’s not as simple as you’re trying to make it. The population of pass attempts used to calculate these percentages is largely made up of passes completed outside of the red zone. The chances of an incompletion or interception go up sharply when defenders have less field to cover. Trying to say there’s a 1% chance of an interception on a pass play originating from the three yard line where all defenders are starting within 10-12 yards of the ball using the population of data you’re using is fairly ridiculous.
01-26-2020 12:14 PM
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Polish Hammer Offline
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Post: #93
RE: We were outcoached
Not really, while the defense tightens it doesn’t go from 1% to a high percentage because the play you call is directly related to that situation and how to get the defense biting and a receiver open. Anyway, now apply that same theory to Palmer’s 5.5 YPC as well as the same theory of 3 results and 2 bad, which is probably 4 results and 3 bad when you consider gaining yards but not enough. Interceptions prior to that pass were 5-377, or 1.32%, terrible odds. 05-deadhorse05-deadhorse05-deadhorse
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2020 12:33 PM by Polish Hammer.)
01-26-2020 12:25 PM
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94computerguy Offline
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Post: #94
RE: We were outcoached
(01-26-2020 12:25 PM)Polish Hammer Wrote:  Not really, while the defense tightens it doesn’t go from 1% to a high percentage because the play you call is directly related to that situation and how to get the defense biting and a receiver open. Anyway, now apply that same theory to Palmer’s 5.5 YPC as well as the same theory of 3 results and 2 bad, which is probably 4 results and 3 bad when you consider gaining yards but not enough. Interceptions prior to that pass were 5-377, or 1.32%, terrible odds. 05-deadhorse05-deadhorse05-deadhorse

I mean, those quotes are pithy, but one could also say there are 3 results when you run: gain yards, lose yards, fumble, and 2 of those are bad.

The percentages matter, and it's true that they also change close to the end zone. (and also if you're on the 3, any yardage gained more than 3 is wasted) So it's a messy formula and data get really shaggy at that point.

I do feel that, given the success of the running game, the time availabe, the short distance, and the time-out in hand, a run would have been a better idea. But backing it up with data is a lot more work than a quote from a "3 yards and a cloud of dust" coach who's been dead for 30 years.
01-26-2020 12:52 PM
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Purple Offline
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Post: #95
RE: We were outcoached
(01-26-2020 12:14 PM)JMU_Newbill Wrote:  
(01-26-2020 11:37 AM)Polish Hammer Wrote:  No, but obviously you’re comprehension appears to be operating at 70.9%. You claim passing is 2 parts bad and one good. Don’t confuse possibility with probability. While the results mean a completion is 1 of 3 results, when his completion percentage on the season is 70.9% you’re wayyyyy off.

(01-25-2020 01:27 PM)Purple Wrote:  . Three things can happen when you pass the ball. Two of them are BAD! Terrible odds.
1) Completion 70.9% (268-378)
2) Incompletion 29.1% (110-378)
3) Interception 1.587% (6-378)

So speaking of terrible odds, the 1.587% won out. Tip your hat to the defender jumping the route.

05-deadhorse05-deadhorse


It’s not as simple as you’re trying to make it. The population of pass attempts used to calculate these percentages is largely made up of passes completed outside of the red zone. The chances of an incompletion or interception go up sharply when defenders have less field to cover. Trying to say there’s a 1% chance of an interception on a pass play originating from the three yard line where all defenders are starting within 10-12 yards of the ball using the population of data you’re using is fairly ridiculous.

This!
01-27-2020 06:01 PM
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highplainsbison Offline
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Post: #96
RE: We were outcoached
Bison fan here. Just checking in with you Dukes fans. How do you feel about the next season? Defense? QB situation? Would love to have a home and home with JMU. Looks like you have beautiful setting for a ball game. Hope all is well in your house....G
01-28-2020 05:04 AM
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