At some point one has to say, YOU ARE WHAT YOUR NUMBERS SAY YOU ARE ...

And as of today 1/9/2020 the AKRON ZIPS are hands down, the most dominant team in the MAC, by all analytical measures:

+40 in NCAA Net over the next best team in the MAC
+30 in RPI
+15 in BPI
+14 in Massey
+12 in KENPOM
+7 in Sagarin


Even if you take out the high and the low, that's still a very comfortable double-digit margin over the No. 2 MAC team (Kent) and it gets substantially worse for all other MAC teams after that!

Put another way, anything less than a 10-point margin of victory, - home or road - has to be considered a bad night for the Zips.

The NET is noteworthy because that is the NCAA-devised measuring stick for its NCAA Tournament purposes. Overall, Akron is No. 44 in the NET. By any measure, that is a sure NCAA 'Bubble' team and arguably an at-large NCAA team overall, if the Zips maintain that standing.

The Zips have the most favorable schedule in the league by far (crossovers w/ EMU & WMU) and just one tough MAC W road game (@NIU). Even if they have MAC East splits with the likes of UB/BG/Kent, that's four losses max in a worst-case scenario. More likely just two.

I'm not calling this a Top 25 team or nothing like that. But I do say the Zips are a very good team that most in the MAC, not to mention the rest of the region, are not fully aware of.

BY THE NUMBERS ...

Don't tell that to Maddawgz as he doesn't even think they're in the same league as Kent.

I honestly don't think Akron is some behemoth deserving of being labeled as a runaway favorite in the MAC (co-favorites with Kent? Sure). I do think they have been by far the most consistent team. The bad teams they faced they beat pretty handedly. The decent mid-majors teams they faced (Marshall, Tulane, and UMass) they beat. The 3 games they lost were all to teams rated 27 or better in NET and it's not like they were ran out of the gym in any of those games. Their most disappointing performance to date was probably the North Carolina Central game and they still won that game by 10.

Akron has no chance of getting an at-large this year. They just aren't good enough to go 17-1 in MAC play, which is probably what they would need to do to get it. Had they beaten Louisville or WVU they would have had a more realistic path, but they didn't.

(01-09-2020 11:33 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Don't tell that to Maddawgz as he doesn't even think they're in the same league as Kent.

I honestly don't think Akron is some behemoth deserving of being labeled as a runaway favorite in the MAC (co-favorites with Kent? Sure). I do think they have been by far the most consistent team. The bad teams they faced they beat pretty handedly. The decent mid-majors teams they faced (Marshall, Tulane, and UMass) they beat. The 3 games they lost were all to teams rated 27 or better in NET and it's not like they were ran out of the gym in any of those games. Their most disappointing performance to date was probably the North Carolina Central game and they still won that game by 10.

Akron has no chance of getting an at-large this year. They just aren't good enough to go 17-1 in MAC play, which is probably what they would need to do to get it. Had they beaten Louisville or WVU they would have had a more realistic path, but they didn't.

Just looking around the league this year, It really doesn't look like many average/bad teams can hang with Akron even on a bad night, which is what happens for upsets. Look at Buffalo last year, upset losses to NIU and Miami were because UB just didn't shoot well.

Akron's defense can cover up for a bad offensive night, and shy of UB/Kent and maybe NIU on the road, name another MAC team that can come within 10 points of the Zips, especially at home. If you say Ball State, that ??? is answered Friday. A 10-point margin in that game should settle the argument, shy of a major injury at some point in the season.

I don't think this Akron team is as good as UB the last two years, or even a couple of Dambrots teams. But as I see it there is no team in the MAC, THIS SEASON, style-wise of talent-wise, that is a bad matchup for the Zips.

I'd say just about any team. You have to remember Akron only beat Tulane by 1 and UMass by 6. By the end of conference play Akron will end up winning numerous games by under 10 points and will end up having a loss or two to teams that it had no business losing to. When it's all said and done I'm going to peg them at 13-5

(01-09-2020 12:46 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'd say just about any team. You have to remember Akron only beat Tulane by 1 and UMass by 6. By the end of conference play Akron will end up winning numerous games by under 10 points and will end up having a loss or two to teams that it had no business losing to. When it's all said and done I'm going to peg them at 13-5

Not to pile on ... but odds makers give the Zips a whopping 79-percent chance at winning the MAC. No other team is better than 18-percent, and no, it's not Kent at No. 2.!!!

http://www.barttorvik.com/conodds.php?conf=MAC

Yeah, I actually saw that earlier and posted it on Akron's message board. I've been on the Akron bandwagon for a few weeks now. I do think we're in agreement that Akron should be the favorite to win the MAC based on both performance to date and Akron's favorable schedule. I personally wouldn't assign it a 79% though. I think where we disagree is I don't think Akron is going to mow through the conference and win every game by double figures. BGSU, Toledo, and Buffalo have underachieved thus far, but have talent on their roster. Kent and Ball State both look really solid. Also, if Evansville can beat Kentucky and SFA can beat Duke, Miami or Ohio is capable of beating Akron, especially since they get 2 cracks at it.

(01-09-2020 07:52 PM)Jerry Weaver Wrote:  I saw Akron play this past Saturday in Ypsilanti and all I can say is WOW! Good length and the four of the starters have very good shooting strokes, in fact they all made at least one three. Their small point guard Jackson was easily the best pure basketball player on the court. Add in the fact that their bench looked awfully good as well.

Hey I realize the EMU zone will allow three point shots but Akron shot a blistering 11-20 beyond the arc. They chose not to exploit the other zone weakness and instead of crashing the offensive glass, they opted to neutralize any fast break opportunities by dropping back, hence the 45 point output for EMU. It was total domination.

I was also impressed with coach Groce. While he off his feet and engaged in game action, he turns over the huddle to his assistants for the most part. The thing that has most impressed me about his coaching career is that he left Ohio on an upward trajectory and they had two great seasons after he departed, indicating that he had built a solid program. In hindsight Groce probably should have waited out the Power 5 coach recruiting pageant and found a better opportunity than Illinois.

AMEN TO THAT!!!!!!!!! If he had stayed at Ohio just ONE more year, with the talent we had coming back from our 2012 Sweet 16 team, we could have had one AMAZING year in 2012-13!!!

Illinois isn't a blue blood, but it's still historically a really good program. At the time of hiring they were something like 12th in all-time winning percentage and 15th in all-time wins. Now they're currently sitting at 18th in winning percentage and 18th in all-time wins. They also should have an inside track to Chicago recruits. They've been underachieving for much of the last 15 years, but it's far from a dead end job.

both Akron and Kent still have paltry attendance.

(01-09-2020 04:39 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 12:46 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'd say just about any team. You have to remember Akron only beat Tulane by 1 and UMass by 6. By the end of conference play Akron will end up winning numerous games by under 10 points and will end up having a loss or two to teams that it had no business losing to. When it's all said and done I'm going to peg them at 13-5

Not to pile on ... but odds makers give the Zips a whopping 79-percent chance at winning the MAC. No other team is better than 18-percent, and no, it's not Kent at No. 2.!!!

http://www.barttorvik.com/conodds.php?conf=MAC

If you think the Zips have a 79% chance to win the MAC, I'd bet heavily on the field. Let's play the games before crowning the champion. I don't even know if I'd give them a 79% chance of beating Ball State this weekend

(01-10-2020 10:18 AM)rocketinchitown Wrote:  both Akron and Kent still have paltry attendance.

Last season both were top half. Ohio and UB were the leaders. Then Toledo, Ball St., KSU, then Akron. It's too early to tell this season because the students aren't back yet and MAC play is when crowds increase conference wide.

I know KSU is almost always top half--usually 4th or 5th. It's above average. Attendance is down conference wide over the last few years, but it's down nationally as well.

Why is it always Toledo fans who seem to bring attendance into an unrelated discussion? I guess when your team hasn't been to the big dance in 40 years it's hard to dis the MAC's premier basketball programs on anything else.

(01-09-2020 10:09 AM)cleveland Wrote:  And as of today 1/9/2020 the AKRON ZIPS are hands down, the most dominant team in the MAC,

This word you keep using. I don't think it means what you think it means.

No such thing as a dominant team in the MAC this year unfortunately

(01-10-2020 10:39 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  No such thing as a dominant team in the MAC this year unfortunately

Dominant is a relative term ... in relation to the rest of the league in 2019-2020.

I would not put this Akron team among any of the Elite MAC teams from the 1990s-to now. Not even close, really.

Ball State's best teams, Eastern Michigan's best teams, Ohio's Best teams not to mention Buffalo's to name just a few would all sit comfortably ahead of this Akron team.

But when compared to the rest of the league in 2019-2020 ... which is not chopped liver ... but not prime steak, the current metrics say Akron is the best by a long shot. That's all I'm saying.

I still see Buffalo as the favorite come tourney time. they have the best backcourt and are getting healthier and when at the top of their game -harvard, depaul- have been the best team in the league.

Akron is balanced and Groce (who varies between inspirational and unstable, imo) seems to be in a good place running this group. i think if you got a good defensive matchup w christian-jackson you've got a shot at beating akron. when he is in his comfort zone they have good offensive balance and the defense is pretty steady. not a dominant team but a solid one that could win the mac and maybe an ncaa game with the right matchup.

ball state strikes me as a winning mac team that won't run away from anyone. the guard play is decent but will likely let them down in at some point of a 3 game mac tourney grind. teague can really exploit certain matchups - he always kills toledo.

kent is right there. probably nearly as balanced as akron although they don't really have a true pg in their rotation. boo wiliams and roberts are talented guys who kinda hold down the point but aren't elite at running the show. when simon is hot and whittington is locked in they become really tough, because pippin and williams are reliable and the role players generally do their job. senderhoff typically has them playing hard.

toledo is the enigma. playing lousy for the last month, but looked very good early. if their vets get in sync and 1 or 2 of the young guys shows some consistency they have the talent, experience and pg to win the mac tourney, but are in a rut now.

bg is not the same team without turner. decent, but they need their star to win the league or conf tourney.

central, niu, ohio all are dangerous on a good night but unlikely to sustain a high level of play to the point their can win the league or tourney.

wmu, miami, emu all decent but a notch down in overall talent.

(01-11-2020 05:49 PM)pono Wrote:  I still see Buffalo as the favorite come tourney time. they have the best backcourt and are getting healthier and when at the top of their game -harvard, depaul- have been the best team in the league.

Akron is balanced and Groce (who varies between inspirational and unstable, imo) seems to be in a good place running this group. i think if you got a good defensive matchup w christian-jackson you've got a shot at beating akron. when he is in his comfort zone they have good offensive balance and the defense is pretty steady. not a dominant team but a solid one that could win the mac and maybe an ncaa game with the right matchup.

ball state strikes me as a winning mac team that won't run away from anyone. the guard play is decent but will likely let them down in at some point of a 3 game mac tourney grind. teague can really exploit certain matchups - he always kills toledo.

kent is right there. probably nearly as balanced as akron although they don't really have a true pg in their rotation. boo wiliams and roberts are talented guys who kinda hold down the point but aren't elite at running the show. when simon is hot and whittington is locked in they become really tough, because pippin and williams are reliable and the role players generally do their job. senderhoff typically has them playing hard.

toledo is the enigma. playing lousy for the last month, but looked very good early. if their vets get in sync and 1 or 2 of the young guys shows some consistency they have the talent, experience and pg to win the mac tourney, but are in a rut now.

bg is not the same team without turner. decent, but they need their star to win the league or conf tourney.

central, niu, ohio all are dangerous on a good night but unlikely to sustain a high level of play to the point their can win the league or tourney.

wmu, miami, emu all decent but a notch down in overall talent.

Buffalo can beat anyone in the MAC on a good night, but I think you'd be crazy to call them favorites for the tournament at the moment. They haven't shown any ability to be consistent enough to win 3/4 games in a week.

Yes, but Buffalo followed up those wins against DePaul and Harvard by losing their very next game. They have the talent to upset anyone. I just haven't seen the consistently that would lead me to believe they could win 3 games in 3 days.

(01-10-2020 11:18 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(01-10-2020 10:39 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  No such thing as a dominant team in the MAC this year unfortunately

Dominant is a relative term ... in relation to the rest of the league in 2019-2020.

I would not put this Akron team among any of the Elite MAC teams from the 1990s-to now. Not even close, really.

Ball State's best teams, Eastern Michigan's best teams, Ohio's Best teams not to mention Buffalo's to name just a few would all sit comfortably ahead of this Akron team.

But when compared to the rest of the league in 2019-2020 ... which is not chopped liver ... but not prime steak, the current metrics say Akron is the best by a long shot. That's all I'm saying.

That might be right , but even in a relative sense, its nothing like Buffalos dominance last year. No one in the MAC is good enough this year to be considered that dominant.

To be fair to Cleveland he never tried comparing Akron to last years Buffalo, which was the best MAC team in 20 years.