(01-09-2020 12:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote: I think the best possibility is 1-3 non-conference and 6-2 conference, 7-5 overall. We need to get to where we go 8-0 in CUSA every year. We're not there yet, but 2020 is the year to make strides in that direction.
There has been this continuing debate about whether it is more important to dominate CUSA or get a signature win. We're not doing either one this year, but bottom line is they are both the same. Until we are good enough to dominate CUSA, we are not good enough to get a signature win. And if we somehow did the unthinkable and beat LSU next year, it wouldn't mean anything if we go 4-4 in conference.
We need to do both--dominate CUSA and get signature wins--to have any shot at becoming relevant again. The good news is that they are both the same thing. You can't have one without the other.
Dominating a conference is no guarantee of a signature win. FAU was the class of CUSA but lost 93-35 against its two opportunities for signature wins (Ohio State, UCF). App State beat North Carolina and South Carolina but the former had lost 18 games in the previous 2 seasons and the latter ended up 4-8; the bowls yawned and sent App State to play UAB in a who-cares game.
A signature win is no guarantee of success in conference or even avoiding mediocrity. FIU beat Miami. Georgia State beat Tennessee. Illinois beat Wisconsin.
I agree with you that one win does not a program make but it's also been a problem that Bailiff and now Bloomgren seem to have adopted a specific practice of de-emphasizing nonconference games and not even trying for wins against the only schools on the schedule most Rice people can muster up any interest for. Bailiff called them preseason games and consequently was never competitive in a single one against any opponent of note. Bloomgren inherited a wreck of a program, to be sure, and he may turn out to be better in this regard because he did manage good efforts against UH and Army, but he flat-out botched the Baylor game, showing no urgency or creativeness when a great opportunity for a major win presented itself (due to a great defensive effort and a clearly disinterested Baylor), instead just running his pet offensive plays for practice as if the game was already out of hand like he obviously expected it to be.
When you continually lay eggs versus recognizable opponents, it's demoralizing to the people you need to support your program the other 8 games of the year. There certainly is no evidence that a "save the equipment" approach to nonconference games correlates with greater success in-conference, much less sustained dominance.
I am glad that Karlgaard is putting together schedules where if we did manage to go 13-0 or 12-1, we'd probably be the G5 rep in a NY6 bowl, but if the coach cares more about trying to be 8-0 than 13-0, we'll never be either. I know that's a paradox but this is Rice and Rice people are never, ever going to care about CUSA. Apathy for CUSA means we are never going to dominate CUSA, and it also means we'll likely never have a team good enough to get a true signature win.
