(01-09-2020 04:07 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  

(01-09-2020 12:29 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I think the best possibility is 1-3 non-conference and 6-2 conference, 7-5 overall. We need to get to where we go 8-0 in CUSA every year. We're not there yet, but 2020 is the year to make strides in that direction.

There has been this continuing debate about whether it is more important to dominate CUSA or get a signature win. We're not doing either one this year, but bottom line is they are both the same. Until we are good enough to dominate CUSA, we are not good enough to get a signature win. And if we somehow did the unthinkable and beat LSU next year, it wouldn't mean anything if we go 4-4 in conference.

We need to do both--dominate CUSA and get signature wins--to have any shot at becoming relevant again. The good news is that they are both the same thing. You can't have one without the other.

Dominating a conference is no guarantee of a signature win. FAU was the class of CUSA but lost 93-35 against its two opportunities for signature wins (Ohio State, UCF). App State beat North Carolina and South Carolina but the former had lost 18 games in the previous 2 seasons and the latter ended up 4-8; the bowls yawned and sent App State to play UAB in a who-cares game.

A signature win is no guarantee of success in conference or even avoiding mediocrity. FIU beat Miami. Georgia State beat Tennessee. Illinois beat Wisconsin.

I agree with you that one win does not a program make but it's also been a problem that Bailiff and now Bloomgren seem to have adopted a specific practice of de-emphasizing nonconference games and not even trying for wins against the only schools on the schedule most Rice people can muster up any interest for. Bailiff called them preseason games and consequently was never competitive in a single one against any opponent of note. Bloomgren inherited a wreck of a program, to be sure, and he may turn out to be better in this regard because he did manage good efforts against UH and Army, but he flat-out botched the Baylor game, showing no urgency or creativeness when a great opportunity for a major win presented itself (due to a great defensive effort and a clearly disinterested Baylor), instead just running his pet offensive plays for practice as if the game was already out of hand like he obviously expected it to be.

When you continually lay eggs versus recognizable opponents, it's demoralizing to the people you need to support your program the other 8 games of the year. There certainly is no evidence that a "save the equipment" approach to nonconference games correlates with greater success in-conference, much less sustained dominance.

I am glad that Karlgaard is putting together schedules where if we did manage to go 13-0 or 12-1, we'd probably be the G5 rep in a NY6 bowl, but if the coach cares more about trying to be 8-0 than 13-0, we'll never be either. I know that's a paradox but this is Rice and Rice people are never, ever going to care about CUSA. Apathy for CUSA means we are never going to dominate CUSA, and it also means we'll likely never have a team good enough to get a true signature win.

I don't know how I feel about this. I've never witnessed a Rice football coach "de-emphasize" big non conference games, not even the big teady bear David Bailiff. Bailiff was good at saving face. He knew he had no talent to give Texas, Baylor, and the likes a competitive game. He "talked" that angle up before and after games, but I know he never conceded defeat to anyone. The same goes for Bloomgren.

The real problem has been that we haven't had the talent to play these tough OOC opponents closely since the SWC broke up. We're extreme underdogs now because the talent gap has widened between us and them. As good of a recruiter Bailiff was, and Bloomgren is, the talent gap isn't going to close much more until we get into the AAC or MWC.

And Baylor was just "going through the motions" last season. Their players looked bored, they ran a bunch of generic plays on offense, and they played horribly. They took us very lightly, and it showed. Even so, we didn't have the play calling and or talent to overcome it. Bloomgren didn't write that game off. He's coaching for his job.

None of this has anything to do with "saving the equipment" or placing "deemphasis" on big nonconference games. I'm sure all of our coaches know how much a huge nonconference win would mean to this program. There's no doubt.

(01-11-2020 10:47 AM)Ourland Wrote:  I don't know how I feel about this. I've never witnessed a Rice football coach "de-emphasize" big non conference games, not even the big teady bear David Bailiff. Bailiff was good at saving face. He knew he had no talent to give Texas, Baylor, and the likes a competitive game. He "talked" that angle up before and after games, but I know he never conceded defeat to anyone. The same goes for Bloomgren.

Agree.

If Bailiff was was the big teady bear, was Graham the big toady bear?

(01-09-2020 07:29 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  https://riceowls.com/sports/football/schedule

The conference released the conference schedule, so we know our 2020 schedule (game times TBA). I guess it's a decent-enough set-up. It is odd we're in Houston all of September (pray for no day games at Rice Stadium), and then in Texas/Louisiana for November. October is our travel month for the most part.

Sept. 5 - at Houston
Sept. 12 - Army
Sept. 19 - LSU (at NRG)
Sept. 26 - Lamar
Oct. 3 - at Marshall
Oct. 10 - UAB
Oct. 24 - Middle Tennessee
Oct. 31 - at USM
Nov. 7 - UTSA
Nov. 14 - at La Tech
Nov. 21 - at North Texas
Nov. 28 - UTEP

One cool thing is that we have eight games here in Houston: four in September, and four more the rest of the season. There have been years when it seems like we've had only 1 local game in September (and none at Rice Stadium).

Three of the local games are during Rice holiday periods:
Houston (Labor Day weekend)
UAB (midterm break)
UTEP (Thanksgiving break)

(01-11-2020 11:01 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 10:47 AM)Ourland Wrote:  I don't know how I feel about this. I've never witnessed a Rice football coach "de-emphasize" big non conference games, not even the big teady bear David Bailiff. Bailiff was good at saving face. He knew he had no talent to give Texas, Baylor, and the likes a competitive game. He "talked" that angle up before and after games, but I know he never conceded defeat to anyone. The same goes for Bloomgren.

Agree.

If Bailiff was was the big teady bear, was Graham the big toady bear?

Sure

Well, looks like Houston may not have D'Eriq King after all:

King
@DeriqKing_
I’ve entered the portal I think it’s best for me and my family!

(01-13-2020 11:10 PM)07owl Wrote:  Well, looks like Houston may not have D'Eriq King after all:

King
@DeriqKing_
I’ve entered the portal I think it’s best for me and my family!

I'm shocked .... shocked.

(01-13-2020 11:10 PM)07owl Wrote:  Well, looks like Houston may not have D'Eriq King after all:

King
@DeriqKing_
I’ve entered the portal I think it’s best for me and my family!

Should be interesting when we face him anyways next year, as an LSU Tiger. That will be one hell of a tailgate next year.

(01-13-2020 11:30 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  

(01-13-2020 11:10 PM)07owl Wrote:  Well, looks like Houston may not have D'Eriq King after all:

King
@DeriqKing_
I’ve entered the portal I think it’s best for me and my family!

I'm shocked .... shocked.

Here's your winnings, sir.

total ROFLMAO-poor coogs…….

The whole transfer thing is absurd, as is the amateur veneer of D1 football. But man, I gotta say, D'Eriq King was probably the most electric athlete I saw all of last year

(01-14-2020 12:30 AM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(01-13-2020 11:10 PM)07owl Wrote:  Well, looks like Houston may not have D'Eriq King after all:

King
@DeriqKing_
I’ve entered the portal I think it’s best for me and my family!

Should be interesting when we face him anyways next year, as an LSU Tiger. That will be one hell of a tailgate next year.

I think OU is more likely. They're known to succeed with mobile QBs. LSU's track record is one year with a pocket passer. They made what may be the best offense college football has ever seen this year, but I wouldn't bet on LSU sustaining offensive excellence until they are near that level for at least two consecutive years. They certainly didn't recruit this roster with this system in mind, so can they deliberately rebuild the roster or make successful system adjustments for where future rosters lack? We won't know for another year or two. King is gambling his last year of eligibility on this choice. If I were him, I wouldn't go to Baton Rouge if they were picking up my calls in Norman.

E: LSU's passing game coordinator, Joe Brady, is joining Matt Rhule at Carolina. There's a lot of questions around whether this year's LSU offense will prove to be a system or an anomaly.

(01-13-2020 11:10 PM)07owl Wrote:  Well, looks like Houston may not have D'Eriq King after all:

King
@DeriqKing_
I’ve entered the portal I think it’s best for me and my family!

King apparently going to Miami (FL).

LSU has had quite a few guys declare for the draft (and also has lost two important assistant coaches). I feel quite confident we can keep within 60 of them now.

(01-19-2020 05:06 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(01-13-2020 11:10 PM)07owl Wrote:  Well, looks like Houston may not have D'Eriq King after all:

King
@DeriqKing_
I’ve entered the portal I think it’s best for me and my family!

King apparently going to Miami (FL).

LSU has had quite a few guys declare for the draft (and also has lost two important assistant coaches). I feel quite confident we can keep within 60 of them now.

Ok. Great. I feel a lot better about that game now.

Even La Tech beat Miami. Looks like a step down going to Maimi but probably can major in football at Miami.

(01-19-2020 05:06 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  

(01-13-2020 11:10 PM)07owl Wrote:  Well, looks like Houston may not have D'Eriq King after all:

King
@DeriqKing_
I’ve entered the portal I think it’s best for me and my family!

King apparently going to Miami (FL).

LSU has had quite a few guys declare for the draft (and also has lost two important assistant coaches). I feel quite confident we can keep within 60 of them now.

Season opener @ UH moved from Saturday, September 5 to Thursday, September 3.

https://twitter.com/AtTheRoost/status/12...gr%5Etweet

I assume it's going to be on TV but the only UH schedule I see mentioned a couple later Thursday/Friday games for them on the ESPN Network, and nothing yet for the Bayou Bucket. I'll assume it's going to be on the CBS Sports Network, like our 2019 season opener. I'm not sure moving a game to Thursday for a lesser network makes sense, but at least it's a road game in this case.

(02-18-2020 06:52 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I assume it's going to be on TV but the only UH schedule I see mentioned a couple later Thursday/Friday games for them on the ESPN Network, and nothing yet for the Bayou Bucket. I'll assume it's going to be on the CBS Sports Network, like our 2019 season opener. I'm not sure moving a game to Thursday for a lesser network makes sense, but at least it's a road game in this case.

It won't be on CBSSN. The home team's conference TV agreement will apply, and the AAC's contract is exclusively with the ESPN networks (except a carve-out for most Navy home games that do stay with CBS/CBSSN). Would guess our game will be on ESPNU...

(01-09-2020 04:07 PM)illiniowl Wrote:  Dominating a conference is no guarantee of a signature win. FAU was the class of CUSA but lost 93-35 against its two opportunities for signature wins (Ohio State, UCF). App State beat North Carolina and South Carolina but the former had lost 18 games in the previous 2 seasons and the latter ended up 4-8; the bowls yawned and sent App State to play UAB in a who-cares game.
A signature win is no guarantee of success in conference or even avoiding mediocrity. FIU beat Miami. Georgia State beat Tennessee. Illinois beat Wisconsin.

I agree both ways. But my point is this. It's not like you say, "Well if we want to dominate conference play we need to do X, but if we want to get a signature win we need to do Y." If X is what you need to do to get a signature win, then X is what we need to do to dominate the conference. I can think of a few exceptions. If you have a super player who is nursing an injury, you might try to bring him back before he's 100% to give you a better shot to win a signature game, or you might rest him to have him fully ready for conference play. But that's about it, and we are a long way from facing a decision like that.

My other point is that it doesn't really become a signature win until you put something with it. Were those FIU, Georgia State, and Illinois wins truly signature wins? Does anybody even remember them? If one of those programs starts to dominate from that point forward, or was dominating lesser competition before, then that game might mark something. But one win in the middle of a 6-6 season doesn't mean much. To me the ultimate signature win was TCU over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. The occasion, the venue, and the opponent all made it a spectacular win. But TCU had been dominating lesser competition for years before that. It took doing that to get them to the position where they were even invited to the game.

I just don't think you can separate the two. If in some future season we are undefeated and facing LSU in the penultimate game of the season, and our last game is a showdown for the conference championship, and we have an all-America player who is nursing an injury, the I could see a decision where the goal might matter. But where we are now is so far from that place that I just don't see any relevance to the dispute.

FWIW, Caesars Entertainment released regular-season win totals this week for every college Football Bowl Subdivision team:

odds -110 on both sides unless noted

Conference USA
Charlotte 5
Florida Atlantic 8 (over -120)
Florida International 6 (under -120)
Louisiana Tech 7½ (over -115)
Marshall 6 (over -155)
Middle Tennessee 5½ (under -115)
North Texas 5½ (under -115)
Old Dominion 3 (under -140)
Rice 5½ (over -160)
Southern Mississippi 7
UAB (Alabama-Birmingham) 8 (over -125)
UTEP (Texas-El Paso) 2
UTSA (Texas-San Antonio) 3 (over -115)
Western Kentucky 7½ (under -125)

Houston 5½ (under -150)
Army 7 (under -150)
Louisiana State 9 (under -130)
Lamar n/a

(04-07-2020 09:36 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  FWIW, Caesars Entertainment released regular-season win totals this week for every college Football Bowl Subdivision team:

odds -110 on both sides unless noted

Conference USA
Rice 5½ (over -160)

Six wins! Is it too early to buy bowl tickets?