(01-11-2020 06:21 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 03:20 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 03:15 PM)AllTideUp Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 11:30 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(01-11-2020 02:36 AM)AllTideUp Wrote:  I think we could get 4 leagues out of this in the not too distant future, but maybe a different alignment of what those leagues could be?

Reading Wilner's piece made me come back to certain ideas I've batted around in the past.

For one, the PAC 12 has a problem and it's not likely to be fixed in any substantive way unless a network like CBS comes along and promises tons of coverage on an OTA during prime time and maybe even late on Saturday nights. I actually think that would work because the only property they would compete against is SNL on NBC. If the PAC dedicates their best games to CBS then ESPN and FOX would be second fiddle in the late night time slot. That later slot becomes more valuable, however, if CBS uses a prime time game in the same conference to lead in.

This would not be ideal for the PAC. They'd rather have prime time games on FOX or ABC or ESPN, but that's not going to happen often going forward. Of course, even this notion only works if CBS thinks it's a good idea. It could work for them and still be pretty profitable for the investment. They don't like to spend market prices after all. Simultaneously, it would give them a good solid audience on Saturday night...a unique product rather than the same old stuff other networks are running. They wouldn't beat out ABC or FOX or ESPN for ratings on sports broadcasts, but it might make them more attractive compared to most other channels in that slot.

Most importantly, the exposure would be good for the PAC and that's really something they need to start thinking about. Truth is no network is going to come along and pay a crap ton of money for a product that people haven't already been consistently exposed to.

Anyway, barring something creative like that, the PAC is about done. Even if they got a contract from a new player in the market, most sports fans aren't going to sign up for a service just for that. A lot of fans won't even know they need to. They will gravitate to the brands and channels they know. Whatever short term profit the PAC gets from a FAANG company won't last.

But under my plan, the PAC could be saved! Vote ATU in 2020!

Anyway, I'm starting to warm to the idea that the Big Ten could snatch up some PAC teams. The travel would be horrendous and I'm not exactly sure how they would make it work for anything other than football. But if the major PAC players want to compete then that's basically what it's going to take.

For the Big Ten's part, they need that sort of market exposure outside their footprint. They need talent from CA too and it would probably be better for the core PAC schools if everyone and their brother from the West wasn't raiding Southern CA for prospects. A lot of those players will stay closer to home if their options at the top echelon are reduced. The Big Ten powers will snatch a player every now and then, but that's a different dynamic than 12 schools feeding off the same recruiting grounds while all the respectable G5s in the region get to feed off the leftovers. In other words, the elite programs around the country will recruit CA either way. You can't take them out of the picture, but you can subvert the ability of more local schools(the ones with lesser resources) to make a splash.

So I propose this:

Washington, Oregon, California, Stanford, UCLA, and USC move to the Big Ten

Anyway, I'm not going to draw divisions because at 20, I think the Big Ten will only have a conference title games that pits the best 2 teams against each other. It's the best practice.

Now, what about the rest of the country?

I think the SEC is going to come down with some quality additions as well, probably the best additions.

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Kansas

I'm tempted to find 2 more and place the SEC at 20, but it's not necessary. They'll be making more money than everyone else and the only other additions that might make sense are currently stuck in the ACC. Unless we're talking about the prospect of USF and UCF just to fill out numbers, I don't think anything else is worth taking a risk on.

I think ESPN wants these products in their fold for one reason or another and the SEC is the safest, easiest place to store them.

Now how about this?

I've reasoned that a league combining Mountain Time Zone and Central Time Zone schools should work. It won't be nearly as profitable as the other 2, but I think it works for a region that includes mostly Heartland-type people and fewer large markets with major pro sports.

Boise State, BYU, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor, Houston

Welcome to the new Big 12.

The ACC will more or less remain the same, but I do think they could add West Virginia and they should add a 16th school if they're going to that trouble. It won't be Notre Dame though unless they can talk ND into some sort of special category that allows them to make extra money for their trouble.

The ACC will also prioritize basketball success here so I think the limits the candidates. Cincinnati would be my pick. They are reasonably competitive in the major sports, in a good market, and the state of OH would be good for ESPN as they won't regain a majority of the Big Ten any time soon.

The 2 additions will open up the contract and ESPN can pay them a little more competitively so that schools like Florida State and Clemson aren't tempted to bail at the first sign of freedom.

SEC = 18
Big Ten = 20
Big 12 = 12
ACC = 16+1

There you have 66 schools plus Notre Dame.

Basically, it's the Bible and the Catholics add some extra to it.

That's my last joke of the night...

Perhaps unintended but Protestants say there are 66 books in the Bible and that the Catholic added to that. Your set up has 66 schools and Notre Dame adds to that number!

Completely intended.

Well maybe 72 is the number because the Catholic Bible which contains the writings in-between the Old and New Testament contains 73 books and it contains histories, prophecies, and more.

So if we are looking for Biblical relevance 72 plus N.D. as an indy does it.

As for me I'm looking for the new heaven and new earth in a breakaway division. It is an eschatological end for this wilderness experience.

Greek Orthodox have 79.
Ethiopic Greek Orthodox have 86.

Add the Nag Hammadi Gnostic scrolls and you could just about have the whole FBS, but it would be heretical, so let's just stick to 72 whether Notre Dame is included or not.

That's the present 65 plus the service Academies plus the next 4 best schools which are also geographical fits. I think I had Cincinnati, San Diego State, Memphis and Brigham Young.

(01-11-2020 02:20 AM)JRsec Wrote:  I can tell you if I was running the networks I would have to take very seriously an approach to keeping fans engaged and keeping schools engaged. And I'm not talking about inclusion of all FBS schools because that simply isn't profitable or desirable by the networks. They do understand that better match ups are desirable.

The issues to be addressed are the profitability of the PAC, the viability of the Big 12, and profitability of the ACC.

Currently the AAC gives ESPN plenty of extra content with some competitive programs. But it doesn't give them large fan bases for that purpose.

The Big 10 is 14 and there are 9 PAC schools that meet their metrics and they do both love the Rose Bowl. Arizona, California, U.C.L.A., Colorado, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington and Utah are now AAU add Notre Dame to them and make a 24 school Big 12.

The SEC is at 14 let them add Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Clemson, Florida State, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State to get to 24.

then form that conference that will replace the AAC as the main producer of viable extra content and do it with better brands.

Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, T.C.U.
Arizona State, Air Force, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Washington State
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Army, Georgia Tech, Memphis, Miami, Navy, Wake Forest

Now you give all of those schools upper tier status.

The Big 24 contains everything they could want and elevates the main schools of the PAC to competitive levels of income with the former Big 10 schools and Notre Dame would fit right in with both Big 10 and PAC schools on their schedule and with Navy in the upper tier.

The SEC would be the best of the South and Southwest. I can't imagine a more dynamic 24.

The third grouping has an auto bid into a 4 team CFP a competitively close payout (think 10 to 15 million below the other two) and gives the networks much more filler and some prime time games.

You take the 3 conference champs after conference semis of division winners and 1 at large team each year to complete the field (likely the best of the runner ups).

Now you have enough schools to keep the win / loss bell curve healthy.

You have all existing main rivals available for OOC games. The Big 10 and SEC have no trouble with peer groups issues and the markets are all covered.

But if the Networks don't do this the money will eventually lead to two large leagues but fewer involved schools and markets and some tough political decisions for some states. For the inclusion of the 3 service academies and the five best remain G5 schools that fit geographically with the gaps you get a very practical alignment.

Big 24:
Maryland, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Utah
California, U.C.L.A., Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington.

SEC:
Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech
Clemson, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

IMO something like this is the only way to make it competitive, keep the maximum engaged, hang onto the history that fans love, and produce a champion reasonably decided on the field.

What's more the networks get 2 conferences that are essentially the 48 programs they want for market penetration, the content they want, and if they did it now they could probably pacify everyone at 75 million for the arrangement and then pay the new P conference 60 million which doubles or more what most of them make. That money more than covers the travel costs and leaves these athletic departments enough revenue to keep up.

As for the conferences you play everyone in your division and rotate a division a year and play 1 OOC game that can be an annual rival or a rotating opponent.

I think for something like this to work all 4 major OTA networks would have to be involved because the major programs will insist on continual exposure on a week-to-week basis.

Say, ABC and CBS split the SEC and ACC, while Fox and NBC split the rights to the Big Ten and PAC.

Assume that NBC shifts the Premier League back to cable to make room at the Noon Kickoff time.

So...

Fox Noon: Games involving Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State against non-prime opponents at home

NBC Noon: Games involving Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State against non-prime opponents on the road

Fox 3:30: Games involving Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota against each other or at home against Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State or Michigan State

NBC 3:30: Games involving Notre Dame, home games of USC, Stanford, Cal or UCLA, games between Big Ten powers or between Big Ten powers and USC or Washington or Oregon

Fox 7:00: Prime time games between Big Ten powers and Notre Dame, USC, Washington, Oregon or UCLA

NBC 7:00: See Fox 7:00


I'm not a television exec or a scheduling expert but that would be how I would set it up.

I'm going to assume no ACC changes until their GOR expire. I know that's boring.

I'm also going to assume to Pac-12 changes. With the possible exception of Colorado, they're just too far away from everyone else.

The plan is for the other P5's to wipe out the Big 12. You do it by swiping Texas and Oklahoma.

I'm going to rule out the ACC since it makes no geographical sense.

Since the Pac-12 is the weakest of the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac 12, they'd have the most to gain by picking up Texas/Oklahoma. I'd imagine they'd go for both of them. But they're pretty far away from the rest of the Pac 12 and they once refused an offer from them.

The Big Ten certainly would love Texas. Oklahoma isn't an AAU member though.

The SEC normally has a gentleman's agreement to not expand to members in the same state as current members. So that would mean Texas is out. But how could any conference totally rule out the most valuable university in the country? And would Texas want to join the SEC and reunite with Texas A&M? They might find themselves more of a Big Ten member than an SEC member. You'd like to see Texas and Oklahoma together but I'm not sure they would agree to the same conference together.

If Texas goes to the Big Ten and Oklahoma to the SEC, both teams ideally would want another new member. If Oklahoma politicians have their way Oklahoma State would be going with Oklahoma. I'm sure the SEC would take Oklahoma State to get Oklahoma if the Big Ten took Texas and the Big 12 crumbled. Another option would be West Virginia, they would give the SEC a presence on the East Coast.

If Oklahoma and Oklahoma State joined the SEC, they join the West, Missouri moves over from the East, and Alabama and Auburn move to the East. If Oklahoma and West Virginia join, then add one to each division (although Missouri is still stuck in the East).

Meanwhile, the Big Ten could go bold and try for Missouri. Or they could just go for Kansas (assuming they don't have to take Kansas State, I wouldn't take them to take Kansas if I were the Big Ten). If any two western teams join the Big Ten, Purdue moves to the East Division. If the Big Ten can't get Missouri or Kansas, maybe Kentucky or Connecticut? I know neither are AAU but you need someone unless you just want to stay at 15.

(02-12-2020 08:47 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I'm going to assume no ACC changes until their GOR expire. I know that's boring.

I'm also going to assume to Pac-12 changes. With the possible exception of Colorado, they're just too far away from everyone else.

The plan is for the other P5's to wipe out the Big 12. You do it by swiping Texas and Oklahoma.

I'm going to rule out the ACC since it makes no geographical sense.

Since the Pac-12 is the weakest of the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac 12, they'd have the most to gain by picking up Texas/Oklahoma. I'd imagine they'd go for both of them. But they're pretty far away from the rest of the Pac 12 and they once refused an offer from them.

The Big Ten certainly would love Texas. Oklahoma isn't an AAU member though.

The SEC normally has a gentleman's agreement to not expand to members in the same state as current members. So that would mean Texas is out. But how could any conference totally rule out the most valuable university in the country? And would Texas want to join the SEC and reunite with Texas A&M? They might find themselves more of a Big Ten member than an SEC member. You'd like to see Texas and Oklahoma together but I'm not sure they would agree to the same conference together.

If Texas goes to the Big Ten and Oklahoma to the SEC, both teams ideally would want another new member. If Oklahoma politicians have their way Oklahoma State would be going with Oklahoma. I'm sure the SEC would take Oklahoma State to get Oklahoma if the Big Ten took Texas and the Big 12 crumbled. Another option would be West Virginia, they would give the SEC a presence on the East Coast.

If Oklahoma and Oklahoma State joined the SEC, they join the West, Missouri moves over from the East, and Alabama and Auburn move to the East. If Oklahoma and West Virginia join, then add one to each division (although Missouri is still stuck in the East).

Meanwhile, the Big Ten could go bold and try for Missouri. Or they could just go for Kansas (assuming they don't have to take Kansas State, I wouldn't take them to take Kansas if I were the Big Ten). If any two western teams join the Big Ten, Purdue moves to the East Division. If the Big Ten can't get Missouri or Kansas, maybe Kentucky or Connecticut? I know neither are AAU but you need someone unless you just want to stay at 15.

Read the board before you post. Most of your theories were debunked years ago.

The Gentlemen's agreement as you describe it is an internet myth which has been covered ad nauseam in many posts over multiple threads. The Gentlemen's agreement was born out of the SEC's renegotiation clause which required 2 new markets in 2010 in order for the contract to be renegotiated. It no longer applies and was only put in by ESPN to keep the SEC from moving to 14 at the ACC's expense by taking Clemson and Florida State both of which South Carolina and Florida's presidents were anxious to nominate for membership because they feared with expansion that playing their arch rivals out of conference might become very difficult.

West Virginia is covered in many posts in many threads as well. West Virginia doesn't add any significant market to either the SEC or Big 10 and the SEC doesn't get paid for their alumni who don't live in West Virginia. Academically they are non starter and they've applied twice to the SEC already. The first time was in '92 and their application was tabled. In 2010 when they applied the SEC sent them a prospectus on what had to be done before they could be considered. That's why they joined the Big 12 which only needed a warm body to keep their TV contract enforced. T.C.U. was the other warm body. They had to have 10 full members to keep their contract.

Frank the Tank is on record saying that both Oklahoma and Kansas would be welcome in the Big 10 in spite of OU's academic shortcomings because they bring almost a billion dollars in sports value to whatever conference they join.

I have whole threads devoted to legitimate reasons Texas will never be a member of the Big 10, chiefly due to their highly successful business model which has been predicated upon playing 8 games inside the state of Texas annually and which requires them to have at least 2 other Texas schools with them during a conference change to keep that business model intact. They have never sought a high academic standing for conference membership having been in the SWC for decades and remaining in the Big 12 when 4 AAU schools left.

If Texas moves it will be to a conference where their business model can be preserved. They are also under contract to ESPN until 2031 which rules out moving to a FOX held conference.

I do agree that Tech would be acceptable in order to land Texas, and that Kansas is an acceptable travel mate with Oklahoma. Right now I wouldn't rule out either the SEC or Big 10 from moving to 18 with the right schools. But the right schools needed to move to 18 profitably would be any two of Texas, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma and two others which for the Big 10 would need to have academic standing.

With the conferences (Big 10 and SEC) both likely to be earning more than 65 million per school in media payouts per year you won't see any Connecticut or Kentucky being added and you sure as heck won't see any of those leaving a conference earning 65 million a year. Missouri is the only one that I could even conceive of which might make such a move but only to the Big 10 and for more games with schools much closer by, Nebraska, maybe Kansas, Illinois, etc. I'm just not sure the Big 10 wants them.

Would the SEC take Kansas and Oklahoma? Probably. I'm not sure that OU/OSU is as viable as it once was at 65 million per school per year. Texas adds almost 1.2 billion in value to the conference they join. That's more than enough to include Tech. I don't think K State is a factor for Kansas. If you don't believe me talk to some Jayhawks about it.

(02-12-2020 10:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-12-2020 08:47 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I'm going to assume no ACC changes until their GOR expire. I know that's boring.

I'm also going to assume to Pac-12 changes. With the possible exception of Colorado, they're just too far away from everyone else.

The plan is for the other P5's to wipe out the Big 12. You do it by swiping Texas and Oklahoma.

I'm going to rule out the ACC since it makes no geographical sense.

Since the Pac-12 is the weakest of the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac 12, they'd have the most to gain by picking up Texas/Oklahoma. I'd imagine they'd go for both of them. But they're pretty far away from the rest of the Pac 12 and they once refused an offer from them.

The Big Ten certainly would love Texas. Oklahoma isn't an AAU member though.

The SEC normally has a gentleman's agreement to not expand to members in the same state as current members. So that would mean Texas is out. But how could any conference totally rule out the most valuable university in the country? And would Texas want to join the SEC and reunite with Texas A&M? They might find themselves more of a Big Ten member than an SEC member. You'd like to see Texas and Oklahoma together but I'm not sure they would agree to the same conference together.

If Texas goes to the Big Ten and Oklahoma to the SEC, both teams ideally would want another new member. If Oklahoma politicians have their way Oklahoma State would be going with Oklahoma. I'm sure the SEC would take Oklahoma State to get Oklahoma if the Big Ten took Texas and the Big 12 crumbled. Another option would be West Virginia, they would give the SEC a presence on the East Coast.

If Oklahoma and Oklahoma State joined the SEC, they join the West, Missouri moves over from the East, and Alabama and Auburn move to the East. If Oklahoma and West Virginia join, then add one to each division (although Missouri is still stuck in the East).

Meanwhile, the Big Ten could go bold and try for Missouri. Or they could just go for Kansas (assuming they don't have to take Kansas State, I wouldn't take them to take Kansas if I were the Big Ten). If any two western teams join the Big Ten, Purdue moves to the East Division. If the Big Ten can't get Missouri or Kansas, maybe Kentucky or Connecticut? I know neither are AAU but you need someone unless you just want to stay at 15.

Read the board before you post. Most of your theories were debunked years ago.

The Gentlemen's agreement as you describe it is an internet myth which has been covered ad nauseam in many posts over multiple threads. The Gentlemen's agreement was born out of the SEC's renegotiation clause which required 2 new markets in 2010 in order for the contract to be renegotiated. It no longer applies and was only put in by ESPN to keep the SEC from moving to 14 at the ACC's expense by taking Clemson and Florida State both of which South Carolina and Florida's presidents were anxious to nominate for membership because they feared with expansion that playing their arch rivals out of conference might become very difficult.

West Virginia is covered in many posts in many threads as well. West Virginia doesn't add any significant market to either the SEC or Big 10 and the SEC doesn't get paid for their alumni who don't live in West Virginia. Academically they are non starter and they've applied twice to the SEC already. The first time was in '92 and their application was tabled. In 2010 when they applied the SEC sent them a prospectus on what had to be done before they could be considered. That's why they joined the Big 12 which only needed a warm body to keep their TV contract enforced. T.C.U. was the other warm body. They had to have 10 full members to keep their contract.

Frank the Tank is on record saying that both Oklahoma and Kansas would be welcome in the Big 10 in spite of OU's academic shortcomings because they bring almost a billion dollars in sports value to whatever conference they join.

I have whole threads devoted to legitimate reasons Texas will never be a member of the Big 10, chiefly due to their highly successful business model which has been predicated upon playing 8 games inside the state of Texas annually and which requires them to have at least 2 other Texas schools with them during a conference change to keep that business model intact. They have never sought a high academic standing for conference membership having been in the SWC for decades and remaining in the Big 12 when 4 AAU schools left.

If Texas moves it will be to a conference where their business model can be preserved. They are also under contract to ESPN until 2031 which rules out moving to a FOX held conference.

I do agree that Tech would be acceptable in order to land Texas, and that Kansas is an acceptable travel mate with Oklahoma. Right now I wouldn't rule out either the SEC or Big 10 from moving to 18 with the right schools. But the right schools needed to move to 18 profitably would be any two of Texas, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma and two others which for the Big 10 would need to have academic standing.

With the conferences (Big 10 and SEC) both likely to be earning more than 65 million per school in media payouts per year you won't see any Connecticut or Kentucky being added and you sure as heck won't see any of those leaving a conference earning 65 million a year. Missouri is the only one that I could even conceive of which might make such a move but only to the Big 10 and for more games with schools much closer by, Nebraska, maybe Kansas, Illinois, etc. I'm just not sure the Big 10 wants them.

Would the SEC take Kansas and Oklahoma? Probably. I'm not sure that OU/OSU is as viable as it once was at 65 million per school per year. Texas adds almost 1.2 billion in value to the conference they join. That's more than enough to include Tech. I don't think K State is a factor for Kansas. If you don't believe me talk to some Jayhawks about it.

Just playing devil's advocate (though of course the devil needs no advocate)...

Big 10 manages to grab OK/Kansas and convinces Missouri to come along with say Vandy. Big 10 at 18.

The PAC gets Texas/Tech/TCU and one other from say Houston/OSU/ISU/KSU. PAC at 16.

I'd assume that the SEC would sit at 12 for a while waiting for the ACC GOR to expire rather than take Baylor/WVU, but their reputation takes a hit.

At that point they could go to go 16 or 18. Clemson/FSU make sense, and at that point UNC/Duke or VT/NC St. work, but the SEC has lost the "battle" with the Big 10.

(02-14-2020 09:52 AM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(02-12-2020 10:27 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-12-2020 08:47 PM)schmolik Wrote:  I'm going to assume no ACC changes until their GOR expire. I know that's boring.

I'm also going to assume to Pac-12 changes. With the possible exception of Colorado, they're just too far away from everyone else.

The plan is for the other P5's to wipe out the Big 12. You do it by swiping Texas and Oklahoma.

I'm going to rule out the ACC since it makes no geographical sense.

Since the Pac-12 is the weakest of the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac 12, they'd have the most to gain by picking up Texas/Oklahoma. I'd imagine they'd go for both of them. But they're pretty far away from the rest of the Pac 12 and they once refused an offer from them.

The Big Ten certainly would love Texas. Oklahoma isn't an AAU member though.

The SEC normally has a gentleman's agreement to not expand to members in the same state as current members. So that would mean Texas is out. But how could any conference totally rule out the most valuable university in the country? And would Texas want to join the SEC and reunite with Texas A&M? They might find themselves more of a Big Ten member than an SEC member. You'd like to see Texas and Oklahoma together but I'm not sure they would agree to the same conference together.

If Texas goes to the Big Ten and Oklahoma to the SEC, both teams ideally would want another new member. If Oklahoma politicians have their way Oklahoma State would be going with Oklahoma. I'm sure the SEC would take Oklahoma State to get Oklahoma if the Big Ten took Texas and the Big 12 crumbled. Another option would be West Virginia, they would give the SEC a presence on the East Coast.

If Oklahoma and Oklahoma State joined the SEC, they join the West, Missouri moves over from the East, and Alabama and Auburn move to the East. If Oklahoma and West Virginia join, then add one to each division (although Missouri is still stuck in the East).

Meanwhile, the Big Ten could go bold and try for Missouri. Or they could just go for Kansas (assuming they don't have to take Kansas State, I wouldn't take them to take Kansas if I were the Big Ten). If any two western teams join the Big Ten, Purdue moves to the East Division. If the Big Ten can't get Missouri or Kansas, maybe Kentucky or Connecticut? I know neither are AAU but you need someone unless you just want to stay at 15.

Read the board before you post. Most of your theories were debunked years ago.

The Gentlemen's agreement as you describe it is an internet myth which has been covered ad nauseam in many posts over multiple threads. The Gentlemen's agreement was born out of the SEC's renegotiation clause which required 2 new markets in 2010 in order for the contract to be renegotiated. It no longer applies and was only put in by ESPN to keep the SEC from moving to 14 at the ACC's expense by taking Clemson and Florida State both of which South Carolina and Florida's presidents were anxious to nominate for membership because they feared with expansion that playing their arch rivals out of conference might become very difficult.

West Virginia is covered in many posts in many threads as well. West Virginia doesn't add any significant market to either the SEC or Big 10 and the SEC doesn't get paid for their alumni who don't live in West Virginia. Academically they are non starter and they've applied twice to the SEC already. The first time was in '92 and their application was tabled. In 2010 when they applied the SEC sent them a prospectus on what had to be done before they could be considered. That's why they joined the Big 12 which only needed a warm body to keep their TV contract enforced. T.C.U. was the other warm body. They had to have 10 full members to keep their contract.

Frank the Tank is on record saying that both Oklahoma and Kansas would be welcome in the Big 10 in spite of OU's academic shortcomings because they bring almost a billion dollars in sports value to whatever conference they join.

I have whole threads devoted to legitimate reasons Texas will never be a member of the Big 10, chiefly due to their highly successful business model which has been predicated upon playing 8 games inside the state of Texas annually and which requires them to have at least 2 other Texas schools with them during a conference change to keep that business model intact. They have never sought a high academic standing for conference membership having been in the SWC for decades and remaining in the Big 12 when 4 AAU schools left.

If Texas moves it will be to a conference where their business model can be preserved. They are also under contract to ESPN until 2031 which rules out moving to a FOX held conference.

I do agree that Tech would be acceptable in order to land Texas, and that Kansas is an acceptable travel mate with Oklahoma. Right now I wouldn't rule out either the SEC or Big 10 from moving to 18 with the right schools. But the right schools needed to move to 18 profitably would be any two of Texas, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma and two others which for the Big 10 would need to have academic standing.

With the conferences (Big 10 and SEC) both likely to be earning more than 65 million per school in media payouts per year you won't see any Connecticut or Kentucky being added and you sure as heck won't see any of those leaving a conference earning 65 million a year. Missouri is the only one that I could even conceive of which might make such a move but only to the Big 10 and for more games with schools much closer by, Nebraska, maybe Kansas, Illinois, etc. I'm just not sure the Big 10 wants them.

Would the SEC take Kansas and Oklahoma? Probably. I'm not sure that OU/OSU is as viable as it once was at 65 million per school per year. Texas adds almost 1.2 billion in value to the conference they join. That's more than enough to include Tech. I don't think K State is a factor for Kansas. If you don't believe me talk to some Jayhawks about it.

Just playing devil's advocate (though of course the devil needs no advocate)...

Big 10 manages to grab OK/Kansas and convinces Missouri to come along with say Vandy. Big 10 at 18.

The PAC gets Texas/Tech/TCU and one other from say Houston/OSU/ISU/KSU. PAC at 16.

I'd assume that the SEC would sit at 12 for a while waiting for the ACC GOR to expire rather than take Baylor/WVU, but their reputation takes a hit.

At that point they could go to go 16 or 18. Clemson/FSU make sense, and at that point UNC/Duke or VT/NC St. work, but the SEC has lost the "battle" with the Big 10.

While not an impossible situation as an outcome, the SEC will be flush and sitting on top of the best recruiting territory in the nation. So I like our odds to get accomplished whatever it is we feel we need to do.

Let me offer you another one.

The SEC with the support of ESPN takes Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Kansas and stops at 18.

It removes all possible Big 10 expansion candidates except for possibly some PAC schools and Notre Dame.

At the end of the ACC GOR their core schools recognize their lousy situation so the very schools you suggest join the SEC which swells to 24 forms 4 six team divisions and comprises the best football, basketball, and baseball product in the country while expanding its AAU ranks from 5 to 10 because we take Virginia instead of Va Tech which goes to the Big 10 with Notre Dame.

But that would only happen to keep the Big 10 out of our footprint because otherwise we would be too well off to even consider it.