RE: Delaware
Delaware got worse. After a 9-0 (8-0 vs. Division I start), they are 2-4 in their last 6 games. Losing by 12 to Charleston os okay and by 8 to Villanova is good, but they lost to George Washington (230th in the NET) and Long Island (260th in the NET). Their wins in that span are over UNCW yesterday and by 8 over Delaware State, who is winless vs. Division I and lost to NAIA Washington Adventist last night. I'm not saying you'll win, but you have a chance. If I use dan10's prediction of Delaware -10 as the spread, I pick you against the spread. The Sagarin thinks it's even when including home court, with Delaware better by 0.39 (Overall), 0.55 (Predictor), and 1.42 (Golden_Mean), and you better by 0.80 (Recent). I give Delaware a 20 to 25 percent chance at winning by double-digits.
In another topic you said that a start worse than 4-2 likely means a finish around eighth. Let's say you lose hosting Delaware, lose at Towson, win at JMU, and win hosting Elon to start 3-3. UNCW and Elon are the most likely bottom two, and I'll guess your chances of finishing ahead of anyone else in that case:
Middle six: hosting W&M, at NU, at HU, at UD, hosting JMU, hosting TU
You'll be underdogs for all three away games. If you lose them and win 2 of 3 at home, you'll be 2-4 for that part and 5-7 total.
Last six: at W&M, at EU, hosting HU, hosting NU, at UNCW, at CofC
You should win at EU and lose at CofC. The other games are more likely to be losses than wins, but you should win at least 1. Let's say you go 2-4 for hat part and 7-11 overall.
Of the 11 teams who ever went 7-11 when the CAA had ten teams, 7 of 11 were seeded seventh or better. Of the 4 seeded eighth, 2 were 1 game behind seventh who was 8-10, 1 was the worst in a three-way tie for sixth through eighth, and 1 lost a two-way tie for seventh. A 7-11 team has never been seeded ninth or tenth of ten.
(This post was last modified: 12-31-2019 11:10 AM by EvanJ.)
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