Campbell stuns Ohio

(12-29-2019 04:03 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Campbell stuns Ohio

Bobcats without Dartis ...

(12-29-2019 05:56 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-29-2019 04:03 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Campbell stuns Ohio

Bobcats without Dartis ...

Going strictly off memory ...

Ball State lost at least a couple of games without its starting 2G
BG has lost games w/o Turner
Kent lost to Irvine w/o its starting PG
Now Bobcats w/o Dartis ...

May have missed one or two others but the point remains ... this season, perhaps more than in recent memory, injuries will have a MAJOR impact on the fortunes for any MAC team. Be it a gameday injury or out for two weeks or more.

That said ... the team that looks the healthiest, and deepest, around the league is Akron. Not saying they are the best ... but they might be the best bet.

If Kent State beats Mississippi State today, I think you'd have to put KSU at the top of the list. Booman Williams was back for the Hampton game. I think a win over MSU might be 40% likely, so it's not a given.

KSU has a solid primary lineup - 5 guys averaging over 10 points. The next 3 in the rotation are experienced contributors - and Gio Santiago has been performing well at point guard as a true freshman.

(12-30-2019 10:21 AM)Slinkin Street Flash Wrote:  If Kent State beats Mississippi State today, I think you'd have to put KSU at the top of the list. Booman Williams was back for the Hampton game. I think a win over MSU might be 40% likely, so it's not a given.

KSU has a solid primary lineup - 5 guys averaging over 10 points. The next 3 in the rotation are experienced contributors - and Gio Santiago has been performing well at point guard as a true freshman.

I have Kent as a 1 right now, but I totally agree, if they beat Mississippi State it's a no brainer. Something tells me we are going to have to brush up on our tiebreaker knowledge this end of season. There is probably going to be a 4 or 5 way tie at either the 9 or 10 win mark. Parity has returned

Although I am looking for KSU to beat MSU tonight, I am withholding an opinion on projecting the season until that game is over. Kent can be very good on most nights, but consistency worries me. We have several players that can not be lost for us to be good.

I thought we might be better this year. Instead, we're worse.

(12-29-2019 05:56 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-29-2019 04:03 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Campbell stuns Ohio

Bobcats without Dartis ...

It was more than just Dartis being out. According to the Box Score, Ohio only played 3 guards the entire game. It was basically a 7 man rotation because of injuries and illness (Foster played 4 minutes but was just coming back from an injury himself).

I certainly agree with you cleveland, health will play a huge role this year. I can't remember a year when so many teams seemed to be dealing with injuries to key players going into conference play.

(12-30-2019 01:40 PM)Eagle66 Wrote:  

(12-29-2019 05:56 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-29-2019 04:03 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Campbell stuns Ohio

Bobcats without Dartis ...

It was more than just Dartis being out. According to the Box Score, Ohio only played 3 guards the entire game. It was basically a 7 man rotation because of injuries and illness (Foster played 4 minutes but was just coming back from an injury himself).

I certainly agree with you cleveland, health will play a huge role this year. I can't remember a year when so many teams seemed to be dealing with injuries to key players going into conference play.

This has been a worst-case-scenario year for Ohio. It doesn't really matter what the record is, they just needed to get the freshman some consistent minutes working them into the rotation. Of the 5 freshman that were viewed as possible contributors this year, only Lunden McDay has been healthy. Hopefully at some point we'll be able to put our full roster out there.

Mikal Dawson officially got added to Akron's roster on 12/15. He hasn't appeared in a game yet, but he was the supposed to be the Zips top incoming recruit this season. That's saying a lot since Akron has 2 1st year recruits starting and a third whose a key contributor off the bench. It's too be seen if Groce plans to ease him into the rotation this year or if he'll just red shirt him instead.

With only 1 OOC game left I figured I'd go ahead and update the NET rankings.

74 - Akron
99 - Kent State
119 - Ball State
147 - Toledo
155 - Buffalo
173 - Bowling Green
179 - Ohio
197 - Miami
210 - EMU
211 - NIU
223 - CMU
251 - WMU

I was a bit surprised to see Buffalo didn't move up a little more with their win over St. Bonnie.

The NET rankings don't think highly of the directional Michigans given they hold 3 out of the bottom 4 spots.

If you flip Buffalo and Ball State this is about how I'd have my rankings based on performance to date. It's a long season though and the margin between these teams is so small. A lot can change between now and March. Overall, I'm expecting an entertaining season.

(12-29-2019 06:03 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-29-2019 05:56 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-29-2019 04:03 PM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Campbell stuns Ohio

Bobcats without Dartis ...

Going strictly off memory ...

Ball State lost at least a couple of games without its starting 2G
BG has lost games w/o Turner
Kent lost to Irvine w/o its starting PG
Now Bobcats w/o Dartis ...

May have missed one or two others but the point remains ... this season, perhaps more than in recent memory, injuries will have a MAJOR impact on the fortunes for any MAC team. Be it a gameday injury or out for two weeks or more.

That said ... the team that looks the healthiest, and deepest, around the league is Akron. Not saying they are the best ... but they might be the best bet.

Healthiest yes, but we don't know how deep they really are because they've not been challenged by injury. But you're right, it's a crap shoot at this point and health is the biggest thing the teams have in common.

Bertham dressed for UB last night after missing the OOC... So we could get some help in the paint. That's probably where depth has been the biggest issue for Buffalo

Justin Turner back for BG against Hartford. He is playing limited minutes, 9 points in 9 minutes in the first half. BG with a 12 point lead. Hartford's not great but has won 3 straight including over Northwestern a few days ago.

On ESPN3.

(12-31-2019 12:53 PM)Siborg Wrote:  Justin Turner back for BG against Hartford. He is playing limited minutes, 9 points in 9 minutes in the first half. BG with a 12 point lead. Hartford's not great but has won 3 straight including over Northwestern a few days ago.

On ESPN3.

81-68 win. Turner with 22 in 21 minutes.

(12-31-2019 02:35 PM)Siborg Wrote:  

(12-31-2019 12:53 PM)Siborg Wrote:  Justin Turner back for BG against Hartford. He is playing limited minutes, 9 points in 9 minutes in the first half. BG with a 12 point lead. Hartford's not great but has won 3 straight including over Northwestern a few days ago.

On ESPN3.

81-68 win. Turner with 22 in 21 minutes.

Wellll ...

Move BG back to No .1

Akron
Toledo
Buffalo
Ball State
Kent State
Ohio U.
Central Michigan

The rest ...

AND LET THE GAMES BEGIN!!!!

My post-nonconf season projections for conference season

Power Rankings

1. Kent State
2. Ball State
3. Toledo
4. Bowling Green
5. Buffalo
6. Central Michigan
7. Akron
8. Ohio
9. Eastern Michigan
10. Miami-OH
11. Northern Illinois
12. Western Michigan


Final Standings Projection (W-L) (Win differential from preseason projection)

MAC East
1. Kent State 11-7 (0)
2. Bowling Green 10-8 (-2)
3. Buffalo 10-8 (-1)
4. Akron 9-9 (0)
5. Ohio 9-9 (+4)
6. Miami-OH 7-11 (-1)

MAC West
1. Ball State 11-7 (-1)
2. Toledo 11-7 (-1)
3. Central Michigan 9-9 (-1)
4. Eastern Michigan 8-10 (+4)
5. Northern Illinois 7-11 (-2)
6. Western Michigan 6-12 (+1)

Projected MAC tourney matchups/seeding

First Round Byes

1. Kent State
2. Ball State
3. Toledo
4. Bowling Green

Campus site games

#12 Western Michigan @ #5 Buffalo
#11 Miami-OH @ #6 Central Michigan
#10 Northern Illinois @ #7 Akron
#9 Eastern Michigan @ #8 Ohio

Chances to Win MAC Tourney

Serious Contenders

Kent State 21.2%
Ball State 17.2%
Toledo 15.9%
Bowling Green 14.2%
Buffalo 11.0%
-------------------------
Possible Darkhorses

Akron 6.1%
Central Michigan 6.0%
Ohio 4.7%
Eastern Michigan 1.0%
-------------------------
The Longshots

Miami-OH 0.8%
Northern Illinois 0.7%
Western Michigan 0.2%

Opening Week Mock Lines

Toledo @ Ball State, Cardinals by 4
Kent State @ Bowling Green, Falcons by 2
Akron @ Eastern Michigan, Eagles by 1
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo, Bulls by 9
Miami-OH @ Central Michigan, Chips by 7
Ohio @ Western Michigan, Bobcats by 1

Friday 1/3 on CBSSN
7:00 pm Toledo @ Ball State
9:00 pm Kent @ BG

I'm picking the I-75 guys this year, Toledo and Bowling Green.

A question for all of us? Why can't the MAC play a true round-robin in the conference, 22 games instead of the 18 we play now. I still allows nine games, 30% of your schedule to do as you please and makes conference outcomes 100% fair. Buffalo 2018-19 was clearly the best team that the league had in any recent past and yet four MAC West teams only had to play them once.

Just a proposal, all opinions are welcomed.

(01-03-2020 07:11 PM)Jerry Weaver Wrote:  I'm picking the I-75 guys this year, Toledo and Bowling Green.

A question for all of us? Why can't the MAC play a true round-robin in the conference, 22 games instead of the 18 we play now. I still allows nine games, 30% of your schedule to do as you please and makes conference outcomes 100% fair. Buffalo 2018-19 was clearly the best team that the league had in any recent past and yet four MAC West teams only had to play them once.

Just a proposal, all opinions are welcomed.

I would just be worried that we would lose some of our bigger OOC games. For example, Buffalo played West Virginia, Syracuse, and Marquette last year. It would have been much harder to schedule all 3 of those games if we only had 8 OOC games.

(12-25-2019 09:13 PM)cleveland Wrote:  ...
2) Somewhat related to No. 1 very few teams (Western, OU, Buffalo and Akron) seem intent on developing their freshmen, which leads to the 8-man issue above.
...

Ball State starts two freshmen, and has two others that average north of 10 minutes per game...