No surprise to anyone that ESPN goes hard after the SEC tier 1 rights they are after all the most valuable property out there top to bottom as far as ESPN is concerned.

Burning question I have is does CBS go after maybe Big 12 for an early slot (maybe 1:00 EST) and Pac 12 for a late afternoon (maybe 5:00 EST). It doesn't even have to be the game of the week, just a solid matchup.

I know contracts need to be worked out etc but it would keep CBS in the game after the fractured relationship comes to an end with the SEC (btw the SEC was pissed after they added Texas A&M and Mizzou and CBS didn't pay them market rate).

The Big 12 and Pac 12 would benefit by getting national exposure during heavily watched timeslots and CBS would be able to stay in the game.

Breakdown of conference/network lineup
SEC exclusively ESPN
ACC exclusively ESPN
B1G split between FOX & ESPN
Projected Pac12 split CBS/ESPN/Fox
Projected Big12 split CBS/ESPN/Fox

The big supposition is that the Big12 isn't raided by the B1G (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas) in the future.

Fox may go after the SEC to boost FS1/FS2 if they have space for inventory. Not sure if the SEC will go for it. Obviously wouldn't be the game of the week on those channels but imagine a Florida - Missouri game or something similar.

(12-21-2019 07:20 PM)Big Ron Buckeye Wrote:  No surprise to anyone that ESPN goes hard after the SEC tier 1 rights they are after all the most valuable property out there top to bottom as far as ESPN is concerned.

Burning question I have is does CBS go after maybe Big 12 for an early slot (maybe 1:00 EST) and Pac 12 for a late afternoon (maybe 5:00 EST). It doesn't even have to be the game of the week, just a solid matchup.

I know contracts need to be worked out etc but it would keep CBS in the game after the fractured relationship comes to an end with the SEC (btw the SEC was pissed after they added Texas A&M and Mizzou and CBS didn't pay them market rate).

The Big 12 and Pac 12 would benefit by getting national exposure during heavily watched timeslots and CBS would be able to stay in the game.

Breakdown of conference/network lineup
SEC exclusively ESPN
ACC exclusively ESPN
B1G split between FOX & ESPN
Projected Pac12 split CBS/ESPN/Fox
Projected Big12 split CBS/ESPN/Fox

The big supposition is that the Big12 isn't raided by the B1G (Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas) in the future.

I feel pretty confident that CBS doesn't go after another P5 college football conference.

1. ABC is now negotiating to buyout CBS. The deal is finished and it will be in excess of 350 million and ABC won the SEC T1 contract. I expect that to mean that the contract is for 356 million because 56 million covers what the SEC would lose by being with CBS for the next 4 years. if bought out by ABC I expect a graduated build up over the next 4 years to reach the 356 million mark by 2024. Anyway you cut it by 2024 the SEC should be at ~66 million per school in payouts. The Big 10 should be at 60 in 2024 and hitting ~64.5 by 2025.

2. I expect FOX and Disney to go hard after Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Why? Because both are tired of overpaying to keep Texas playing a slate of schools that don't fully monetize their investment in ad revenue. So I don't expect a viable Big 12 by 2025.

3. The PAC is isolated and CBS needs a product for the 2:30 CST slot to replace the SEC. The PAC is poorest viewed of the P5 which means much less in ad revenue and the Pacific Coast slot is too late for the major markets on the East Coast and FOX and ESPN have the first 2 picks of those games.

4. So no ACC, no SEC, and no B1G, with likely no Big 12 to bid on, and a PAC that just isn't a fit leads me to believe drop college football from their main network channel. If this is their decision then I think they'll probably sell out to ABC and use the cash to go harder for the NFL.

Or ESPN /Fox/ CBS could Talk to Texas OU and KU about 2 to 4 NEW Teams to add and Build Them up with Larger growing Markets...ESPN Owns AAC and Have a Look in Window in 2023/2024 and say Add 2 or 4 of those teams bringing in New Large Markets...Memphis Puts them in the heart of SEC country which is Supassing Tennessee UCF Large Fast Growing Markets and School Alumni and Fan base could be heavily Looked at..Also Big 12 and AAC are using ESPN+ like a Network for ESPN and Growing Fans and New Subscribers...Remember this, If ESPN+ Fails then Amazon and Other Streaming Companies are Coming when those TV Deals are up and got the Bank Roll to do it.....Why ESPn is Plushing ESPN+ to become a hit because Of The Amazon's coming...

Getting the SEC contract so high (and the Big Ten as their contract grows) makes a pool of eligible future members shrink to a handful of candidates for each. It's difficult to predict because as the divide grows, it makes it harder for prior targets (North Carolina and Virginia schools) to buy their way in. Eventually, it may only make sense that Texas, Oklahoma, and Notre Dame make it worth while on their individually without any tagalongs. Would any of them move alone?

One thing that I think would be the death sentence to the Big 12 is deregulation of conference championship games. This would open up the SEC and Big 10 to adding one to get to 15, either have no divisions or three 5-team divisions, and allow Oklahoma and Texas to leave their little brothers behind. The ACC is both blessed and cursed that their Grant of Rights lasts so long as they shouldn't be poached (though enough new money in the SEC/B10 could still outweigh it) but they are locked into a lesser contract for such a long time.

More variables include Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc. Would they overpay for the ACC or would they overpay to revamp the entire FBS to get the top brands all playing each other? So many rabbit holes to go down just thinking about it.

The only conference that makes sense for CBS would be the Big Ten. They're the only conference left that moves the needle (they have OSU, Mich, and PSU), the Big 12 not be relevant if Oklahoma and/or Texas get invites from other P5 conferences, and who watches the Pathetic 12 these days? CBS also already has broadcasting rights for Big Ten basketball. It would make a lot of sense. It would be great for the Big Ten Conference to have a guaranteed weekly 3:30pm game like the SEC has now (they can always air Michigan-Ohio State at noon and maybe Ohio State-Penn State in prime time). Or FOX can pick up all of the first tier rights. With ESPN/ABC locking in the SEC, I see FOX making an aggressive move for the Big Ten. Why get the top pick half the time when you can get the top pick every week?