quo vadis
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RE: Which would make more money?: 8 team playoff or a P4 champ only system
(12-19-2019 11:02 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote: (12-19-2019 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (12-19-2019 08:06 AM)goodknightfl Wrote: (12-18-2019 03:01 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (12-18-2019 02:53 PM)oliveandblue Wrote: The problem with 5-1-2 is that if the AAC continues its climb, then a school like Tulane actually has a safer path to the CFP than Texas A+M does (although Aggy has the resources to contend for a championship immediately).
it's actually true if the AAC climbs or not. In 5-1-2 a G5 team has an easier path to the playoffs than a P5 team.
That's why e.g had there been a 5-1-2 the last 5 years UCF and Memphis and Houston and Boise would have made the playoffs more often than Florida, Florida State, Tennessee, and Texas.
Those who think the P5 will go for that are IMO naive.
Tenn and Tex would not sniff a playoff no matter the system in place. UF also was bad for the last 4 years before this year. FSU has been garbage since Jimbo Fisher left. So Memphis, UH, Boise, and UCF should have gone more than those schools.
You miss the point: As an example, neither Memphis nor Tennessee deserved to be in a 8 team playoff this year. But under 5-1-2, Memphis would have gone while Tennessee wouldn't.
IMO, that would be intolerable to Tennessee, because of the national brand implications of making the playoffs.
With 5-1-2, you will see #15 ranked Boise/Memphis/UCF teams going to the playoffs, and getting all the media attention and brand building that will bring, while "big brother" P5 schools in the same state will NOT go to the playoffs when they are also ranked #15.
For example, compare Memphis to Florida the last five years, four of which you said Florida was "bad". Memphis was ranked #17 this year and #20 in 2016. Florida was ranked #9 this year, #10 last year, and #17 in 2016 and #19 in 2015
And yet under 5-1-2, Memphis would have a trip to the playoffs while Florida would not. So to reiterate, in the past 5 years:
Memphis …. #17 and #20 …. playoff spot
Florida ……. #19, #17, #10, #9 …. no playoff spots.
I don't think the P5 will go for that, but hey, maybe they are dumb.
It's not so much that the P5 would be dumb, but rather that's the realistic trade-off for having auto-bids for their own champs and not having to be subject to the "eye test" or other subjective criteria. Maybe the P5 has the leverage to get their own auto-bids without providing the G5 with a slot, anyway (in which case, we'd just have a 5-3 system), but it's a reasonable presumption that it will be a negotiating point. I think that you're placing a lot of value on a P5 conference being able to maximize it's ability to get at-large bids, which is a fair argument. However, I very strongly believe that the value of a P5 conference guaranteeing an auto-bid every year is going to be much more important. The fact that the P5 champs would make a straight 8 playoff 99% of the time isn't good enough. It might be good enough for us as fans, but it just won't be good enough for the powers that be. Only 100% guarantees provide power in college football. That's the difference between being the AAC (which might be regularly getting the CFP access bowl slot, but it's not guaranteed) and the ACC (which gets to send lower-ranked Virginia to the Orange Bowl for a ton of money without regard to ranking). Remember that an 8-team playoff will almost certainly upend the economics of the contract bowl system - the P5 gets those guarantees (both access and money) in the contract bowl system, but that will all very likely be subsumed into an 8-team playoff system. Guarantees, guarantees, guarantees. I can't say that enough. Without guarantees, you have nothing.
The issue with 5-1-2 isn't a conference thing, it's a school thing. For example, under 5-1-2, the SEC will always have a team in, so from the conference POV, the issue of the conference power of the SEC is protected. OK on that.
But conferences are made up of schools, schools that have their own power hierarchies to defend. And IMO, if 5-1-2 means that UCF goes to the playoffs more then FSU and Florida, if Houston goes to the playoffs more than Texas and Texas A/M, if Western Michigan goes to the playoffs more than Michigan, and if Boise goes to the playoffs more than USC or Stanford - all but one of which would have happened in just six years of the CFP, that is going to upend the in-state and regional power hierarchies that are every bit as important as conference power, arguably moreso.
So I don't see that trade-off being made. As Delany and Scott just said, missing or making the playoffs is and so under an 8-team playoff will be a big brand thing, a big prestige thing. Possibly the defining characteristic in the minds of the fans and media and boosters as to what a "power" program is. So you think Florida and FSU and Miami are going to want to tolerate UCF crowing about making the playoffs more times than they do? That they will be mollified because the SEC and ACC are guaranteed a spot?
I do not.
(This post was last modified: 12-19-2019 02:43 PM by quo vadis.)
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