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PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #121
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
Top 4 seeds get sent to their traditional bowl games in regions easy for fans to travel:

If top 4...

SEC champ to the Sugar
ACC champ to the Orange
Big 12 champ to the Cotton
Big 10 champ to the Rose
Pac 12 champ to the Rose
Independent/G5 champ to the Fiesta or Peach depending on proximity

If both the Big 10 and Pac 12 are Top 4, then the Fiesta can serve as back up.

The finals and perhaps semifinal sites need to be determined well in advance for advance ticket sales.
12-17-2019 08:17 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #122
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 08:17 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Top 4 seeds get sent to their traditional bowl games in regions easy for fans to travel:

If top 4...

SEC champ to the Sugar
ACC champ to the Orange
Big 12 champ to the Cotton
Big 10 champ to the Rose
Pac 12 champ to the Rose
Independent/G5 champ to the Fiesta or Peach depending on proximity

If both the Big 10 and Pac 12 are Top 4, then the Fiesta can serve as back up.

The finals and perhaps semifinal sites need to be determined well in advance for advance ticket sales.

It's not going to be have NYD and then seed a 4 team playoff. Bare minimum NYD will be the QF. You just aren't going to see 4-5 NYD games and then the 4 team playoff seeded. That's not going to happen.
12-17-2019 08:23 AM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #123
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
I'm not talking about re-seeding after the QF.

I am saying the QF/NYD sites should depend on who the Top 4 seeds are.
(This post was last modified: 12-17-2019 08:28 AM by CougarRed.)
12-17-2019 08:27 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #124
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 08:27 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  I'm not talking about re-seeding after the QF.

I am saying the QF/NYD sites should depend on who the Top 4 seeds are.

They're going to want certainty. A Clear rotation.
12-17-2019 08:41 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #125
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-16-2019 08:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 06:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 06:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Thing is IMO is the Big Ten and SEC are pretty happy as is- making money hand over fist- and clearly ahead of the Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12.

Also, I really don't think the CCG's are going anywhere at all.... it'll be 12 + 1 + then a 8 team playoff.

I agree. There is a big bias on this board towards "change". People always want to see expansion - expansion of conferences, expansion of playoffs, etc.

But a lot of the time, it's wishful thinking.

Change in colleges happens when the economic model changes. There were a lot of changes after WWII when the GI Bill massively expanded the state colleges. There were a lot of changes in the late 80s after UGA and Oklahoma played the NCAA in the Supreme Court and won an end to their TV monopoly. Then there were a lot of changes 10 years ago when the conference network model came about.

Next change may be when the conference network model dies.

No question big events cause big changes. The conference network model looks like it has many more years to go, in the case of the ACC and SEC it extends in to the 2030s. Especially as most conferences are signing deals with ESPN, and streaming is being folded in to those deals.
(This post was last modified: 12-17-2019 09:03 AM by quo vadis.)
12-17-2019 09:02 AM
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Post: #126
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 08:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 06:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 06:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Thing is IMO is the Big Ten and SEC are pretty happy as is- making money hand over fist- and clearly ahead of the Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12.

Also, I really don't think the CCG's are going anywhere at all.... it'll be 12 + 1 + then a 8 team playoff.

I agree. There is a big bias on this board towards "change". People always want to see expansion - expansion of conferences, expansion of playoffs, etc.

But a lot of the time, it's wishful thinking.

Change in colleges happens when the economic model changes. There were a lot of changes after WWII when the GI Bill massively expanded the state colleges. There were a lot of changes in the late 80s after UGA and Oklahoma played the NCAA in the Supreme Court and won an end to their TV monopoly. Then there were a lot of changes 10 years ago when the conference network model came about.

Next change may be when the conference network model dies.

No question big events cause big changes. The conference network model looks like it has many more years to go, in the case of the ACC and SEC it extends in to the 2030s. Especially as most conferences are signing deals with ESPN, and streaming is being folded in to those deals.

But it has already reached peak $$s. At some point streaming is just as valuable and you have to wonder if 14 is still the magic number or if 12 is good enough. So does it encourage "airport meetings?" Or does it encourage strategic alliances where you pair conferences to reduce overhead but split them up to have fewer than 14 in each new conference? On the other hand, with streaming you aren't limited in time slots, so more than 14 might be preferable.

B$G and SEC are raking in $$s. Pac is geographically isolated. And Texas is still generating more $$s than anyone else. Oklahoma is top 5. So that's 4 conferences that require some massive change to look at a move. ACC is tied up til 2036 and would have to offer significant value to B$G or SEC at that point to get them to expand.

I'm inclined to think the next move might be a superconference of 12-20 schools leaving the existing conferences behind.

A playoff expansion to 8 would probably discourage that.
12-17-2019 09:21 AM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #127
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 09:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 08:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 06:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 06:47 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Thing is IMO is the Big Ten and SEC are pretty happy as is- making money hand over fist- and clearly ahead of the Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12.

Also, I really don't think the CCG's are going anywhere at all.... it'll be 12 + 1 + then a 8 team playoff.

I agree. There is a big bias on this board towards "change". People always want to see expansion - expansion of conferences, expansion of playoffs, etc.

But a lot of the time, it's wishful thinking.

Change in colleges happens when the economic model changes. There were a lot of changes after WWII when the GI Bill massively expanded the state colleges. There were a lot of changes in the late 80s after UGA and Oklahoma played the NCAA in the Supreme Court and won an end to their TV monopoly. Then there were a lot of changes 10 years ago when the conference network model came about.

Next change may be when the conference network model dies.

No question big events cause big changes. The conference network model looks like it has many more years to go, in the case of the ACC and SEC it extends in to the 2030s. Especially as most conferences are signing deals with ESPN, and streaming is being folded in to those deals.

But it has already reached peak $$s.

We don't know if that's true or not.
12-17-2019 09:33 AM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #128
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 09:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  But it has already reached peak $$s.

We don't know if that's true or not.

This is an important point here ... and even if it looks like we hit a peak, there's never any telling whether it's the historical high water mark or just a local peak.

Down in the low total audience numbers right now there may be revenue streams that are growing at an exponential rate ... it's just the base audience is so low that the growth rate gets lost in the noise.

But if any of them turn out to be a major revenue source once they grow into their full market niche, we can easily see a peak in revenue as the current market model fades ... and followed by another growth period as the new market niche grows in importance.

It's like the Peak Oil people were talking about 12 to 15 years back. Oil production was going to slow down, and there were going to be all of these major shocks as a result. The Peak Oil predictions (at least the ones based in geology) proved to be true ... because the prediction was about conventional oil, and that peaked a number of years back. However, because fracking production took up the slack, the major shocks that were going to come from oil shortages didn't happen.
(This post was last modified: 12-17-2019 10:09 AM by BruceMcF.)
12-17-2019 10:08 AM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #129
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 09:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 08:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 06:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I agree. There is a big bias on this board towards "change". People always want to see expansion - expansion of conferences, expansion of playoffs, etc.

But a lot of the time, it's wishful thinking.

Change in colleges happens when the economic model changes. There were a lot of changes after WWII when the GI Bill massively expanded the state colleges. There were a lot of changes in the late 80s after UGA and Oklahoma played the NCAA in the Supreme Court and won an end to their TV monopoly. Then there were a lot of changes 10 years ago when the conference network model came about.

Next change may be when the conference network model dies.

No question big events cause big changes. The conference network model looks like it has many more years to go, in the case of the ACC and SEC it extends in to the 2030s. Especially as most conferences are signing deals with ESPN, and streaming is being folded in to those deals.

But it has already reached peak $$s.

We don't know if that's true or not.

Well, we know it's not true given the SEC is going to be getting a HUGE bump for their Tier 1 games from 55M up to 300M quite probably.... So some peak $$$ right now.
12-17-2019 10:44 AM
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Post: #130
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 09:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 08:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 06:50 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I agree. There is a big bias on this board towards "change". People always want to see expansion - expansion of conferences, expansion of playoffs, etc.

But a lot of the time, it's wishful thinking.

Change in colleges happens when the economic model changes. There were a lot of changes after WWII when the GI Bill massively expanded the state colleges. There were a lot of changes in the late 80s after UGA and Oklahoma played the NCAA in the Supreme Court and won an end to their TV monopoly. Then there were a lot of changes 10 years ago when the conference network model came about.

Next change may be when the conference network model dies.

No question big events cause big changes. The conference network model looks like it has many more years to go, in the case of the ACC and SEC it extends in to the 2030s. Especially as most conferences are signing deals with ESPN, and streaming is being folded in to those deals.

But it has already reached peak $$s.

We don't know if that's true or not.

SEC network revenue is already going down. The big $$s are the forced subscriptions. But cable is bleeding customers. The conference network was built on a faulty economic structure. It required customers having to pay for something they weren't interested in. Its why it replaced PPV.

With the decline of forced carriage, streaming is basically going back to PPV. It is going to require people to pay for what they want to see, whether it be individual games or a "conference network." There may still be a conference package, but the forced carriage model is dying. What we don't know is how quick it goes down and exactly what form replaces it.
(This post was last modified: 12-17-2019 11:57 AM by bullet.)
12-17-2019 11:55 AM
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Post: #131
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 10:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-16-2019 08:43 PM)bullet Wrote:  Change in colleges happens when the economic model changes. There were a lot of changes after WWII when the GI Bill massively expanded the state colleges. There were a lot of changes in the late 80s after UGA and Oklahoma played the NCAA in the Supreme Court and won an end to their TV monopoly. Then there were a lot of changes 10 years ago when the conference network model came about.

Next change may be when the conference network model dies.

No question big events cause big changes. The conference network model looks like it has many more years to go, in the case of the ACC and SEC it extends in to the 2030s. Especially as most conferences are signing deals with ESPN, and streaming is being folded in to those deals.

But it has already reached peak $$s.

We don't know if that's true or not.

Well, we know it's not true given the SEC is going to be getting a HUGE bump for their Tier 1 games from 55M up to 300M quite probably.... So some peak $$$ right now.

The discussion is the conference network model which is what drove the last round of expansion to 14 schools-to get more markets for forced carriage (schools like Missouri, Maryland and Rutgers that weren't otherwise particularly attractive) and to get more inventory to fill the hours. On their last deals, nearly 1/3 of media revenue for the SEC and B$G was from the conference network, which basically had the lowest value games.
12-17-2019 12:00 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #132
RE: PAC's Larry Scott frets about missing playoffs
(12-17-2019 12:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 10:44 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:21 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(12-17-2019 09:02 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  No question big events cause big changes. The conference network model looks like it has many more years to go, in the case of the ACC and SEC it extends in to the 2030s. Especially as most conferences are signing deals with ESPN, and streaming is being folded in to those deals.

But it has already reached peak $$s.

We don't know if that's true or not.

Well, we know it's not true given the SEC is going to be getting a HUGE bump for their Tier 1 games from 55M up to 300M quite probably.... So some peak $$$ right now.

The discussion is the conference network model which is what drove the last round of expansion to 14 schools-to get more markets for forced carriage (schools like Missouri, Maryland and Rutgers that weren't otherwise particularly attractive) and to get more inventory to fill the hours. On their last deals, nearly 1/3 of media revenue for the SEC and B$G was from the conference network, which basically had the lowest value games.

That's correct and the next round will be about adding content value brands and also increasing inventory. New markets will be an ancillary and much less valued goal.
12-17-2019 01:29 PM
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