KENPOM HAS THE TOP 5 MAC TEAMS AS ...

79 Toledo
97 Akron
100 Kent
105 Buffalo
107 Bowling Green

But based on Strength of Schedule there are just two MAC teams worth a damn ...

No. 44 SOS Bowling Green
No. 65 SOS Buffalo

Without embarassing the other three, let's just say none has a SOS higher than 303.

What a joke.

If strength of schedule is all that matters, I guess this must be your top 5 in the country.

1 New Orleans
2 Houston Baptist
3 Oral Roberts
4 Texas Southern
5 Alcorn State

I wouldn't argue with someone saying Buffalo & BG should be #1 or #2 based off of accomplishment thus far (wins against Cincy/Depaul), but completely writing someone off because of SOS seems insane. It's not like Kent, Toledo, or Akron haven't played anyone good. Akron played @Louisville & @WVU. Kent played @OSU & beat a pretty good Wright State team. Toledo played Notre Dame.

(12-09-2019 06:32 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  If strength of schedule is all that matters, I guess this must be your top 5 in the country.

1 New Orleans
2 Houston Baptist
3 Oral Roberts
4 Texas Southern
5 Alcorn State

I wouldn't argue with someone saying Buffalo & BG should be #1 or #2 based off of accomplishment thus far (wins against Cincy/Depaul), but completely writing someone off because of SOS seems insane. It's not like Kent, Toledo, or Akron haven't played anyone good. Akron played @Louisville & @WVU. Kent played @OSU & beat a pretty good Wright State team. Toledo played Notre Dame.

Took it for granted one would equate SOS in relation to W/L records, but guess not. My bad.

As for the five games vs. teams mentioned above, the record is a combined 1-4.

Not saying KSU-Akron-Toledo are bad teams ... just saying teams this good should be playing much tougher schedules, comparable to BG-Buffalo.

(12-09-2019 06:45 PM)cleveland Wrote:  

(12-09-2019 06:32 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  If strength of schedule is all that matters, I guess this must be your top 5 in the country.

1 New Orleans
2 Houston Baptist
3 Oral Roberts
4 Texas Southern
5 Alcorn State

I wouldn't argue with someone saying Buffalo & BG should be #1 or #2 based off of accomplishment thus far (wins against Cincy/Depaul), but completely writing someone off because of SOS seems insane. It's not like Kent, Toledo, or Akron haven't played anyone good. Akron played @Louisville & @WVU. Kent played @OSU & beat a pretty good Wright State team. Toledo played Notre Dame.

Took it for granted one would equate SOS in relation to W/L records, but guess not. My bad.

As for the five games vs. teams mentioned above, the record is a combined 1-4.

Not saying KSU-Akron-Toledo are bad teams ... just saying teams this good should be playing much tougher schedules, comparable to BG-Buffalo.

Kenpom doesn't look at just who you played and whether you won or lost. It also looks at how much you won or lost by and factors in where the game was played at. Akron losing by 6 to the #2 team in the country would be looked at as a favorable outcome by kenpom. No other team that has played Louisville has lost by less than 13 and that includes wins over Michigan, Miami (FL), Western Kentucky, and Pitt. Akron's loss to WVU @WVU by 10 was about what Kenpom would project where the 2 teams are rated currently. Toledo losing by 2 in OT would similarly be viewed as a favorable outcome for Toledo given that it was @Notre Dame and that Notre Dame is a top 70 team. The only really bad loss was Kent @OSU (lol), but OSU is doing that to everyone they face. All three of these teams have also won convincingly against the teams they're expected to beat. That's what good teams do. Buffalo specifically lost to Dartmouth who kenpom has at #212. That loss pretty much negated the Depaul win in respect to these rankings.

Preaching to the choir here. I'd love for Akron to schedule more quality mid-majors to home and homes. They still have games left against 7-2 Tulane and potentially an undefeated Liberty so Akron's OOC SOS will improve from what it is currently, but the home game portion is still really terrible.

Edit: It also factors in pace and a variety of other factors. All that goes into the numbers and what weight each factor has is kind of an unknown as kenpom doesn't disclose the formula.

Also, Ken Pom says himself that his ratings involve preseason rating until January. (LINK to Ken Pom FAQ)

kenpom.com Wrote:When is the influence of preseason ratings removed from the system?
As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January.

(12-09-2019 07:45 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'd love for Akron to schedule more quality mid-majors to home and homes.

I agree with the statement above and would expand it to all teams. The problem is knowing who the quality mid-majors would be each year. Ohio, for example, has home and homes with St. Bonaventure and Iona. Both are usually solid mid-majors (and both were road wins this year) but who knows when they'll be up or down. I think its important to get in a good exempt tournament to get some higher ranked teams on neutral floors. Ohio got both Baylor and Utah in Myrtle Beach and Villanova in Philly as part of a tournament. Difference is the final scores of those games weren't competitive as they were for Akron or Toledo. Hopefully that changes with Purdue in Athens next week.

When beline was at Michigan he said he would never schedule Toledo. Too Scrappy. Facilities too nice. Too much to lose. I'm not saying every school would look at the top MAC teams that way but our OOC schedule is built similarly every year. Lots of MVC, and Horizon league teams, usually one tourney, and recently Marshall.

Toledo comes into the league with at least 7 wins every year. I think it's mostly a recruiting strategy to win the players in this area. The dance and seeding doesn't seem like it's on our mind... And why should it be?

(12-10-2019 09:24 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  When beline was at Michigan he said he would never schedule Toledo. Too Scrappy. Facilities too nice. Too much to lose.

Was that before or after EMU beat him and his UM team?

(12-10-2019 11:20 AM)Bronc33 Wrote:  

(12-10-2019 09:24 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  When beline was at Michigan he said he would never schedule Toledo. Too Scrappy. Facilities too nice. Too much to lose.

Was that before or after EMU beat him and his UM team?

10-23-15
"Post: #1John Beilein on Playing Mid Majors On Road
Michigan Basketball Coach Jon Beilen was the guest speaker last night at the Rocket’s Men’s Basketball Roundball Social. One of the subject matters he talked about was playing mid majors like Toledo on the road. He said, it isn’t going to happen, that mid major programs like Toledo are capable of knocking off programs like Michigan. He told Coach K that maybe he’d work out a 98 for 1 deal with the l game at Toledo scheduled 98 years from now! He also said that mid majors are at a huge disadvantage of getting to 20 wins as they have to play a lot of nonconference games on the road while major programs can load up on home games during the non-conference and make their quest for 20 victories a lot easier."

(12-10-2019 09:05 AM)Eagle66 Wrote:  Also, Ken Pom says himself that his ratings involve preseason rating until January. (LINK to Ken Pom FAQ)

kenpom.com Wrote:When is the influence of preseason ratings removed from the system?
As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January.

(12-09-2019 07:45 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'd love for Akron to schedule more quality mid-majors to home and homes.

I agree with the statement above and would expand it to all teams. The problem is knowing who the quality mid-majors would be each year. Ohio, for example, has home and homes with St. Bonaventure and Iona. Both are usually solid mid-majors (and both were road wins this year) but who knows when they'll be up or down. I think its important to get in a good exempt tournament to get some higher ranked teams on neutral floors. Ohio got both Baylor and Utah in Myrtle Beach and Villanova in Philly as part of a tournament. Difference is the final scores of those games weren't competitive as they were for Akron or Toledo. Hopefully that changes with Purdue in Athens next week.

Basketball schedules are typically completed a few months in advance of the regular season, not 4-5 years in advance like football so you can get a decent guess at who may or may not be good based on who said team has returning. Obviously that's not a perfect science, but it does provide you some flexibility to adjust your schedule accordingly.

Akron typically schedules 2 home and homes per year. This year it was Marshall & UMass. Marshall was part of a 4 year deal, which they were good for 3 of the years. This was similar to your prior Ohio example of playing a decent program in what just happens to be a rebuilding year. UMass despite being a recognizable name and playing in a decent conference, just hasn't been good for a number of years. It still beats playing MEAC & SWAC teams. Ideally I'd like to have Akron schedule 4 of these games per year (2 home, 2 away). It would mean sacrificing 1 home game per year, but IMO would be well worth it to get 2 more decent opponents per year to watch in person or via some streaming app.

With the schedule Toledo made, I don't think coach expected it to be a 300+ sos. Having said that, it is what it is.

Who would have thought two games against Marshall would be two 300+ games

(12-09-2019 06:45 PM)cleveland Wrote:  Took it for granted one would equate SOS in relation to W/L records, but guess not. My bad.

As for the five games vs. teams mentioned above, the record is a combined 1-4.

Not saying KSU-Akron-Toledo are bad teams ... just saying teams this good should be playing much tougher schedules, comparable to BG-Buffalo.

Buffalo has earned their SOS but BG is a bit of an illusion. They've got an extra non-D1 game which doesn't count into their SOS. Toledo, for example scheduled a bad D1 instead and even though that bad D1 team would probably wipe the floor with the teams BG played it dings Toledo's SOS. And BG also only has one true road game in their OOC schedule while Toledo has 6. In addition, their SOS wouldn't be much different from Toledo's had they lost their first round tournament game against WKU. Instead of UC and Nevada they would have gotten #194 and #200 teams. Plus BG has a bunch of dogs on the upcoming schedule.

Buffalo's not quite there yet but they have the pieces. It reminds me a lot of 2015-2016 where the team had a new coach, and a bunch of new faces, many of them Jucos.

The talent is there and there are flashes of a team that can push to win in Cleveland again but Oats Whitesell is still playing with the lineup to find the chemistry. If he gets it the Bulls could be a top 4 team in the MAC heading into Cleveland.

(12-10-2019 11:59 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  

(12-10-2019 09:05 AM)Eagle66 Wrote:  Also, Ken Pom says himself that his ratings involve preseason rating until January. (LINK to Ken Pom FAQ)

kenpom.com Wrote:When is the influence of preseason ratings removed from the system?
As of 2018, it is 73 days from the date of the first game. This ends up being sometime around January 20th. However, the influence of the preseason ratings is gradually reduced between the first week of the season and this point, so that the influence of the preseason ratings is minimal in mid-January.

(12-09-2019 07:45 PM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'd love for Akron to schedule more quality mid-majors to home and homes.

I agree with the statement above and would expand it to all teams. The problem is knowing who the quality mid-majors would be each year. Ohio, for example, has home and homes with St. Bonaventure and Iona. Both are usually solid mid-majors (and both were road wins this year) but who knows when they'll be up or down. I think its important to get in a good exempt tournament to get some higher ranked teams on neutral floors. Ohio got both Baylor and Utah in Myrtle Beach and Villanova in Philly as part of a tournament. Difference is the final scores of those games weren't competitive as they were for Akron or Toledo. Hopefully that changes with Purdue in Athens next week.

Basketball schedules are typically completed a few months in advance of the regular season, not 4-5 years in advance like football so you can get a decent guess at who may or may not be good based on who said team has returning. Obviously that's not a perfect science, but it does provide you some flexibility to adjust your schedule accordingly.

Akron typically schedules 2 home and homes per year. This year it was Marshall & UMass. Marshall was part of a 4 year deal, which they were good for 3 of the years. This was similar to your prior Ohio example of playing a decent program in what just happens to be a rebuilding year. UMass despite being a recognizable name and playing in a decent conference, just hasn't been good for a number of years. It still beats playing MEAC & SWAC teams. Ideally I'd like to have Akron schedule 4 of these games per year (2 home, 2 away). It would mean sacrificing 1 home game per year, but IMO would be well worth it to get 2 more decent opponents per year to watch in person or via some streaming app.

True. I was referring more to the multi year deals like the Marshall deal you referenced. I think Iona and St. Bonaventure were similar deals.

Quote:Was that before or after EMU beat him and his UM team?

UM fans weren't happy. This girl wasn't getting frisky at any party, I can tell you that much!