Assuming NDSU and JMU advance to the NC this would be the approximate lines along the way

NDSU

Quarterfinal - NDSU -23 versus Ill St

Semi would either be

NDSU - 23 versus Austin Peay, or more likely
NDSU -17 versus Montana State


JMU
Quarterfinal - JMU - 14 versus UNI

Semi would either be
JMU -13 Versus Weber, or
JMU -10 versus Montana


Championship NDSU - Versus JMU estimated line would be NDSU -4 over JMU

Just curious - are you basing this on Sagarin or Vegas?
Pretty certain both had some games wrong last week.

Versus (the simulator) currently has JMU as 2.15 point favorites on neutral field vs bizon.

(12-09-2019 12:02 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Just curious - are you basing this on Sagarin or Vegas?
Pretty certain both had some games wrong last week.

Versus (the simulator) currently has JMU as 2.15 point favorites on neutral field vs bizon.

And that will likely increase as our SOS will increase by a decent margin over the next couple weeks. According to Massey:

NDSU will be adding #8 and either #12 or #6 to their SOS (previous best opponent was #4 UNI - their 4 top 20 games were #4, #8, #9, and #13)
JMU will be adding #4 and either #3 or #5 to their SOS (previous best FCS opponent was #14 Towson - our 3 top 20 games were #14, #16, and #17)

Granted, we had WVU (#45 overall) boosting our SOS and our mid-to-low tier opponents were generally better, but the next couple weeks are going to help us more than it helps them from a metrics standpoint.

(12-09-2019 12:02 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Just curious - are you basing this on Sagarin or Vegas?
Pretty certain both had some games wrong last week.

Versus (the simulator) currently has JMU as 2.15 point favorites on neutral field vs bizon.

So what does "Versus" say the line will be this week versus UNI?

I used the Sagarins.

Not sure what you mean by Vegas got it wrong. (I actually do but...) The exact two teams could play 2 consecutive weeks on the same field and week one team A wins by 14 and the next week team B wins by 17.

Vegas get's it right when they have approximately middle'd the bettors wagers.

I don't think Vegas got it wrong on the Stony Brook line. I think we played a little worse than we had, and they played a little better than they had been playing. We were one drop from losing that game, but I think we touchdowns better than SBU.

(12-09-2019 02:13 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-09-2019 12:02 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Just curious - are you basing this on Sagarin or Vegas?
Pretty certain both had some games wrong last week.

Versus (the simulator) currently has JMU as 2.15 point favorites on neutral field vs bizon.

So what does "Versus" say the line will be this week versus UNI?

I used the Sagarins.

Not sure what you mean by Vegas got it wrong. (I actually do but...) The exact two teams could play 2 consecutive weeks on the same field and week one team A wins by 14 and the next week team B wins by 17.

Vegas get's it right when they have approximately middle'd the bettors wagers.

I don't think Vegas got it wrong on the Stony Brook line. I think we played a little worse than we had, and they played a little better than they had been playing. We were one drop from losing that game, but I think we touchdowns better than SBU.

Technically true, but the theory for some is that the “wisdom of the crowd” will give you a correct answer, sometimes more so than metrics/algorithms.

Versus is predicting JMU 34, UNI 14 this week.
It has NDSU 31, ISU 6

(12-09-2019 02:46 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(12-09-2019 02:13 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-09-2019 12:02 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Just curious - are you basing this on Sagarin or Vegas?
Pretty certain both had some games wrong last week.

Versus (the simulator) currently has JMU as 2.15 point favorites on neutral field vs bizon.

So what does "Versus" say the line will be this week versus UNI?

I used the Sagarins.

Not sure what you mean by Vegas got it wrong. (I actually do but...) The exact two teams could play 2 consecutive weeks on the same field and week one team A wins by 14 and the next week team B wins by 17.

Vegas get's it right when they have approximately middle'd the bettors wagers.

I don't think Vegas got it wrong on the Stony Brook line. I think we played a little worse than we had, and they played a little better than they had been playing. We were one drop from losing that game, but I think we touchdowns better than SBU.

Technically true, but the theory for some is that the “wisdom of the crowd” will give you a correct answer, sometimes more so than metrics/algorithms.

Versus is predicting JMU 34, UNI 14 this week.
It has NDSU 31, ISU 6

If I'm ever inclined to wager on the big college TV game of the week (which I generally don't), my proven winning method is to poll the bar patrons and do the opposite of the masses.