(12-04-2019 06:06 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(12-04-2019 11:05 AM)Nameless Wrote:  Sorry if this has been posted somewhere and I didn't see it (if it was mods please delete the thread.) It's nothing overly analytical but it examines the MWC vs AAC records against P5 teams this year and shows how the records are misleading. Basically says without saying Cincy deserves the Cotton Bowl if they beat Memphis, which is reflected in the latest CFP rankings. Also counters the App State fan narrative that "they had the 2 best wins of any G5 this year."

Just thought it was worth posting here to counter some narratives I've seen from fans of teams from opposing conferences.

https://www.downthedrive.com/platform/am...-a-mistake

Most App Sate fans believe that Louisiana was their best win of the year.

But what is the best win for Memphis? What is the best win for Cincinnati? Cincinnati avoided both SMU and Navy while losing to the only real contender in the conference.

Sure, they beat UCF who is in a "rebuild" (a stretch to say but not untruthful).

The point was that Memphis beat Ole Miss 15-10 and Cincinnati beat a 4-8 Pac 12 team. Yet, each of them seem to get more credit for those wins as it pertains to their SoS than does App. It's also more of an irritation because App has future games against Wisconsin, Texas A&M, & Clemson. Next year the games are at Wake Forest and at Wisconsin, both teams ranked in the CFP at one point or another.

What AAC team has an out of conference schedule like that? I give kudos to Cincinnati for scheduling Ohio State but they shouldn't get a pass for losing 41-0 despite OSU going to the CFP. Last time App played CFP bound UGA the final was 31-10. Last time App played CFP bound Clemson (Desean Watson) the score was 41-10. Those games were played with some FCS recruits starting. Yet no pass was given to App for those games.

App lost to Georgia Southern by 3 on a night with 35 mph sustained winds, a 20 degree temperature drop during the game, rain, sleet, and snow. A GS team that should've beaten what is now known as a pretty good Minnesota team if not for a few miracles on 3rd and 4th down.

Memphis lost to Temple, who lost to SMU by 24 and UCF by 42, yet they get a pass for that, and rightfully so. I believe Memphis is head and shoulders better than Cincinnati but nothing I've seen from Cincinnati leads me to believe that they are better than Boise State or App State. Their resume isn't impressive as it includes close calls against ECU, Tulsa, and Temple.

Wow dude. Just wow. You gotta take a step back. Games aren't played in a vacuum, which is why all this slicing and dicing and transitive bs is comical. You're even doing it across multiple seasons.

UC held Ohio State to two scores below their scoring average. (See how easy that was when you cherry pick like that?)

"Wind and precipitation".....wasn't app state down 24 at half?!?! That's more than just "struggling"

(12-05-2019 12:06 PM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  "Wind and precipitation".....wasn't app state down 24 at half?!?! That's more than just "struggling"

no it was 10-7 at the half.

(12-05-2019 12:28 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(12-05-2019 12:06 PM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  "Wind and precipitation".....wasn't app state down 24 at half?!?! That's more than just "struggling"

no it was 10-7 at the half.

ah...24-7 after 3, that's what it was

(12-05-2019 12:28 PM)ballantyneapp Wrote:  

(12-05-2019 12:06 PM)DownOnRohs Wrote:  "Wind and precipitation".....wasn't app state down 24 at half?!?! That's more than just "struggling"

no it was 10-7 at the half.

goodness stop using weather as an excuse. If you can't run the ball or stop the run in inclement weather then that's on our football team. The weather handicaps both teams your team needs to be able to play in whatever. If it can't blame your coach.

(12-04-2019 06:06 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(12-04-2019 11:05 AM)Nameless Wrote:  Sorry if this has been posted somewhere and I didn't see it (if it was mods please delete the thread.) It's nothing overly analytical but it examines the MWC vs AAC records against P5 teams this year and shows how the records are misleading. Basically says without saying Cincy deserves the Cotton Bowl if they beat Memphis, which is reflected in the latest CFP rankings. Also counters the App State fan narrative that "they had the 2 best wins of any G5 this year."

Just thought it was worth posting here to counter some narratives I've seen from fans of teams from opposing conferences.

https://www.downthedrive.com/platform/am...-a-mistake

Most App Sate fans believe that Louisiana was their best win of the year.

But what is the best win for Memphis? What is the best win for Cincinnati? Cincinnati avoided both SMU and Navy while losing to the only real contender in the conference.

Sure, they beat UCF who is in a "rebuild" (a stretch to say but not untruthful).

The point was that Memphis beat Ole Miss 15-10 and Cincinnati beat a 4-8 Pac 12 team. Yet, each of them seem to get more credit for those wins as it pertains to their SoS than does App. It's also more of an irritation because App has future games against Wisconsin, Texas A&M, & Clemson. Next year the games are at Wake Forest and at Wisconsin, both teams ranked in the CFP at one point or another.

What AAC team has an out of conference schedule like that? I give kudos to Cincinnati for scheduling Ohio State but they shouldn't get a pass for losing 41-0 despite OSU going to the CFP. Last time App played CFP bound UGA the final was 31-10. Last time App played CFP bound Clemson (Desean Watson) the score was 41-10. Those games were played with some FCS recruits starting. Yet no pass was given to App for those games.

App lost to Georgia Southern by 3 on a night with 35 mph sustained winds, a 20 degree temperature drop during the game, rain, sleet, and snow. A GS team that should've beaten what is now known as a pretty good Minnesota team if not for a few miracles on 3rd and 4th down.

Memphis lost to Temple, who lost to SMU by 24 and UCF by 42, yet they get a pass for that, and rightfully so. I believe Memphis is head and shoulders better than Cincinnati but nothing I've seen from Cincinnati leads me to believe that they are better than Boise State or App State. Their resume isn't impressive as it includes close calls against ECU, Tulsa, and Temple.

Just curious. Did Georgia Southern not play on the same field under the same conditions that night, or....? Maybe the winds died down every time GS had the ball. Sucks when that happens.

(12-04-2019 06:06 PM)ericsaid Wrote:  

(12-04-2019 11:05 AM)Nameless Wrote:  Sorry if this has been posted somewhere and I didn't see it (if it was mods please delete the thread.) It's nothing overly analytical but it examines the MWC vs AAC records against P5 teams this year and shows how the records are misleading. Basically says without saying Cincy deserves the Cotton Bowl if they beat Memphis, which is reflected in the latest CFP rankings. Also counters the App State fan narrative that "they had the 2 best wins of any G5 this year."

Just thought it was worth posting here to counter some narratives I've seen from fans of teams from opposing conferences.

https://www.downthedrive.com/platform/am...-a-mistake

Most App Sate fans believe that Louisiana was their best win of the year.

But what is the best win for Memphis? What is the best win for Cincinnati? Cincinnati avoided both SMU and Navy while losing to the only real contender in the conference.

Sure, they beat UCF who is in a "rebuild" (a stretch to say but not untruthful).

The point was that Memphis beat Ole Miss 15-10 and Cincinnati beat a 4-8 Pac 12 team. Yet, each of them seem to get more credit for those wins as it pertains to their SoS than does App. It's also more of an irritation because App has future games against Wisconsin, Texas A&M, & Clemson. Next year the games are at Wake Forest and at Wisconsin, both teams ranked in the CFP at one point or another.

What AAC team has an out of conference schedule like that? I give kudos to Cincinnati for scheduling Ohio State but they shouldn't get a pass for losing 41-0 despite OSU going to the CFP. Last time App played CFP bound UGA the final was 31-10. Last time App played CFP bound Clemson (Desean Watson) the score was 41-10. Those games were played with some FCS recruits starting. Yet no pass was given to App for those games.

App lost to Georgia Southern by 3 on a night with 35 mph sustained winds, a 20 degree temperature drop during the game, rain, sleet, and snow. A GS team that should've beaten what is now known as a pretty good Minnesota team if not for a few miracles on 3rd and 4th down.

Memphis lost to Temple, who lost to SMU by 24 and UCF by 42, yet they get a pass for that, and rightfully so. I believe Memphis is head and shoulders better than Cincinnati but nothing I've seen from Cincinnati leads me to believe that they are better than Boise State or App State. Their resume isn't impressive as it includes close calls against ECU, Tulsa, and Temple.

You're right - Louisiana-Lafayette IS App State's best win. #33 in the Massey Composite Rankings, well ahead of North Carolina (#49) and South Carolina #66.

If Cincinnati beats Memphis and is the AAC champ, here is a comparison of the wins, beaten teams' rankings in the Massey Composite of 108 Rankings:
Cincinnati: #16,26,44,60,73,80,82,85,95,117,125
App State: #33,49,66,88,89,94,106,107,120,122,FCS

Top to bottom, better wins Cincinnati. That's the biggest problem here, is that App State fans have somehow convinced themselves they have good wins. You don't. Your best win, ULL, loses out to two of Cincy's wins if they win the CCG. Cincy has FOUR wins better than South Carolina that you want to hang your hat on. And Temple is better than UNC. UConn and ECU at the bottom of Cincy's resume beat out your SBC dregs and your FCS opponent.

Losses?
Georgia Southern is #61. Compared to losing to the #1 team, and losing to #16, which would be avenged if Cincinnati is the AAC champ.

You actually DON'T have the better resume.
Nice season, congrats.

But this "we have better wins" is a false narrative. You don't.

(12-05-2019 09:31 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  .
If Cincinnati beats Memphis and is the AAC champ, here is a comparison of the wins, beaten teams' rankings in the Massey Composite of 108 Rankings:
Cincinnati: #16,26,44,60,73,80,82,85,95,117,125
App State: #33,49,66,88,89,94,106,107,120,122,FCS

Great use of data to drive the point home. The App State contingent is posting here so often that they're starting to become pests, trying to convince folks here that they should be the replacement for UConn, despite knowing that they don't meet most of the conference's criteria.

Not agreeing with App State's arguments or tactics, and strongly agreeing with your convincing presentation of data, I think that most of us would probably agree, nonetheless, that playing and beating some P5 FB teams each season is an important objective for the AAC that helps to sustain the movement toward full P6 status.

I root for both Memphis and Cincy and hope one of the two makes the NY6 bowl. But ... App State is a strong team and I give full credit.

(12-05-2019 10:15 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  I root for both Memphis and Cincy and hope one of the two makes the NY6 bowl. But ... App State is a strong team and I give full credit.

Great year for App State and good on 'em.
Almost feel bad for them - not their fault that the non-contract-bowl conference teams they beat couldn't muster up a winning record. If they were undefeated, like WMU in 2016 (and there are remarkable parallels between their resume this year and the Broncos rowing the boat in '16), I would be concerned about the committee putting even a one-loss Memphis ahead of them.
But they're not undefeated, and their loss is a bad one, and their resume is NOT better than either potential AAC champ, and they haven't been cheated out of a Cotton Bowl slot.