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Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
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umbluegray Offline
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Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
Let's say the Tigers had lost to Cincy. Given that Navy beat Houston, Cincy would've hosted Navy in the AACCG.

Would that game not be played this weekend?

What is the contingency plan for that day when Navy does win the West?
12-02-2019 02:20 PM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
Navy would have played this weekend. Army/Navy is next weekend.
12-02-2019 02:23 PM
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umbluegray Offline
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-02-2019 02:23 PM)firmbizzle Wrote:  Navy would have played this weekend. Army/Navy is next weekend.

Thx! I assumed Army/Navy was this weekend.
12-02-2019 02:32 PM
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USNA9t8 Offline
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-02-2019 02:20 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Let's say the Tigers had lost to Cincy. Given that Navy beat Houston, Cincy would've hosted Navy in the AACCG.

Would that game not be played this weekend?

What is the contingency plan for that day when Navy does win the West?

You realize that Navy won the west in 2016, right?
12-02-2019 08:41 PM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-02-2019 08:41 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 02:20 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Let's say the Tigers had lost to Cincy. Given that Navy beat Houston, Cincy would've hosted Navy in the AACCG.

Would that game not be played this weekend?

What is the contingency plan for that day when Navy does win the West?

You realize that Navy won the west in 2016, right?

Dang, beat me to it. 04-cheers
12-02-2019 09:04 PM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
Side question:

Navy has been 7-1 three times in this conference. With some of the inherent limitations with the Academies, I feel like that is damn good to essentially be in competition for the conference every other year. I know while independent Navy ran a 4 win, 4 loss, 4 toss up games type set ups and were very successful. How do Navy fans feel about their current competitiveness in the conference? Would you be ok with two really good years, a solid or good year, and one rough season every cycle? Is that similar enough to the pattern of success you enjoyed as an independent?
12-02-2019 10:00 PM
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USNA9t8 Offline
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-02-2019 10:00 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  Side question:

Navy has been 7-1 three times in this conference. With some of the inherent limitations with the Academies, I feel like that is damn good to essentially be in competition for the conference every other year. I know while independent Navy ran a 4 win, 4 loss, 4 toss up games type set ups and were very successful. How do Navy fans feel about their current competitiveness in the conference? Would you be ok with two really good years, a solid or good year, and one rough season every cycle? Is that similar enough to the pattern of success you enjoyed as an independent?

Here's our record over the T.O. era:

2019 American 9 2 0
2018 American 3 10 0
2017 American 7 6 0 Military Bowl-W
2016 American 9 5 0 Armed Forces Bowl-L
2015 American 11 2 0 Military Bowl-W
2014 Ind 8 5 0 Poinsettia Bowl-W
2013 Ind 9 4 0 Armed Forces Bowl-W
2012 Ind 8 5 0 Fight Hunger Bowl-L
2011 Ind 5 7 0
2010 Ind 9 4 0 Poinsettia Bowl-L
2009 Ind 10 4 0 Texas Bowl-W
2008 Ind 8 5 0 EagleBank Bowl-L
2007 Ind 8 5 0 Poinsettia Bowl-L
2006 Ind 9 4 0 Meineke Car Care Bowl-L
2005 Ind 8 4 0 Poinsettia Bowl-W
2004 Ind 10 2 0 Emerald Bowl-W
2003 Ind 8 5 0 Houston Bowl-L


We played many of the same schools that we play now (Tulsa, ECU, SMU, Tulane, Temple), and had success against them.

Before we joined AAC, we won more games against P5 schools than any other non-P5 school. We had enough success against them, that they stopped scheduling us, which, in part, drove us to join the AAC.

We went to bowl games in every year from 2003 to when we joined the conference in 2016 (save 2011). In most of them we either won or were very competitive (exceptions being the Houston Bowl in 2003 and the Kraft bowl in 2012).

So, while there have been ups and downs, Navy has done very well, consistently, in the triple option era. So, I'm not sure about this cycle you're referring to.

If your question is really just what my expectations of our football program are, I list them in order of importance to me (YRMV):
1. "To develop Midshipmen morally, mentally and physically and to imbue them with the highest ideals of duty, honor and loyalty in order to graduate leaders who are dedicated to a career of naval service and have potential for future development in mind and character to assume the highest responsibilities of command, citizenship and government."

2. That we beat Army.

3. Be competitive in whatever league we play in.
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2019 11:27 PM by USNA9t8.)
12-02-2019 10:52 PM
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umbluegray Offline
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-02-2019 08:41 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 02:20 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Let's say the Tigers had lost to Cincy. Given that Navy beat Houston, Cincy would've hosted Navy in the AACCG.

Would that game not be played this weekend?

What is the contingency plan for that day when Navy does win the West?

You realize that Navy won the west in 2016, right?

Sorry... it's been so long since Memphis hadn't won the West... I can't remember that far back.


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12-03-2019 09:52 AM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-03-2019 09:52 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 08:41 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 02:20 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Let's say the Tigers had lost to Cincy. Given that Navy beat Houston, Cincy would've hosted Navy in the AACCG.

Would that game not be played this weekend?

What is the contingency plan for that day when Navy does win the West?

You realize that Navy won the west in 2016, right?

Sorry... it's been so long since Memphis hadn't won the West... I can't remember that far back.


03-wink

03-lmfao Ok, that was good. 04-cheers
12-03-2019 10:02 AM
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Post: #10
RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-02-2019 10:52 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 10:00 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  Side question:

Navy has been 7-1 three times in this conference. With some of the inherent limitations with the Academies, I feel like that is damn good to essentially be in competition for the conference every other year. I know while independent Navy ran a 4 win, 4 loss, 4 toss up games type set ups and were very successful. How do Navy fans feel about their current competitiveness in the conference? Would you be ok with two really good years, a solid or good year, and one rough season every cycle? Is that similar enough to the pattern of success you enjoyed as an independent?

Here's our record over the T.O. era:

2019 American 9 2 0
2018 American 3 10 0
2017 American 7 6 0 Military Bowl-W
2016 American 9 5 0 Armed Forces Bowl-L
2015 American 11 2 0 Military Bowl-W
2014 Ind 8 5 0 Poinsettia Bowl-W
2013 Ind 9 4 0 Armed Forces Bowl-W
2012 Ind 8 5 0 Fight Hunger Bowl-L
2011 Ind 5 7 0
2010 Ind 9 4 0 Poinsettia Bowl-L
2009 Ind 10 4 0 Texas Bowl-W
2008 Ind 8 5 0 EagleBank Bowl-L
2007 Ind 8 5 0 Poinsettia Bowl-L
2006 Ind 9 4 0 Meineke Car Care Bowl-L
2005 Ind 8 4 0 Poinsettia Bowl-W
2004 Ind 10 2 0 Emerald Bowl-W
2003 Ind 8 5 0 Houston Bowl-L


We played many of the same schools that we play now (Tulsa, ECU, SMU, Tulane, Temple), and had success against them.

Before we joined AAC, we won more games against P5 schools than any other non-P5 school. We had enough success against them, that they stopped scheduling us, which, in part, drove us to join the AAC.

We went to bowl games in every year from 2003 to when we joined the conference in 2016 (save 2011). In most of them we either won or were very competitive (exceptions being the Houston Bowl in 2003 and the Kraft bowl in 2012).

So, while there have been ups and downs, Navy has done very well, consistently, in the triple option era. So, I'm not sure about this cycle you're referring to.

If your question is really just what my expectations of our football program are, I list them in order of importance to me (YRMV):
1. "To develop Midshipmen morally, mentally and physically and to imbue them with the highest ideals of duty, honor and loyalty in order to graduate leaders who are dedicated to a career of naval service and have potential for future development in mind and character to assume the highest responsibilities of command, citizenship and government."

2. That we beat Army.

3. Be competitive in whatever league we play in.

9t8 does a good job of laying out the record - it hasn't been a cycle, it has been nearly two decades of sustained success. That is the expectation of a lot of Navy football fans recently.
On the other hand, these seventeen years of success were preceded by many more dark years. In the twenty years between George Welsh and Paul Johnson, we had only three winning seasons: Tranquill stayed above .500 in the first year after Welsh, with Paul Johnson as OC we had an Aloha Bowl-winning '96, and after Johnson left for Georgia Southern and Niumat took over as OC Navy went 7-4 in '97. (From 1983-2019, EVERY Navy winning season had PJ or Niumat as HC or OC.) Navy fans have enough scar tissue that last year's results actually led to people declaring the success over and some even suggesting that it was time to move on from Niumatalolo.

If your hypothesis is that the AAC schedule is just enough harder than Navy's independent schedule, that it will be a cycle with occasional 2018esque lows...I would disagree. Won't be able to tell for some time, but I will start with this year's results to say that 2018 (and the loss of identity and resultant slide that preceded it in mid-2017) is the anomaly and the outlier - evidence of neither cycle nor negative trend.

As far as the scheduling, yes, the Independent scheduling philosophy was 4 stretch games, 4 toss-ups, and 4 "should" win games. And that wasn't exactly scientific. So what do we have within the conference? I would say that the top 2-3 teams in the league will always go into the stretch game category, and a cellar dweller in each division translates to "should" win games. If the remaining conference games are "toss-ups", then adding the AAC schedule to ND, Army/AF, and an FCS, the baseline is 4-5-3 instead of 4-4-4.
2018, arguably all three of our East opponents plus Memphis were stretch games making our start point 5-4-3 or harder, but in 2019 at least two cross-divisional games were "should" games making our starting point 3-5-4 instead. That's really not much more variable than our independent schedules were - those opponents could wax or wane between the time of scheduling and playing.

You get down to those tossup games and it comes down to a Niumatism: It's freakin' hard to win football games; it's harder when you're the Naval Academy.
12-03-2019 10:35 AM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-03-2019 10:35 AM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 10:52 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 10:00 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  Side question:

Navy has been 7-1 three times in this conference. With some of the inherent limitations with the Academies, I feel like that is damn good to essentially be in competition for the conference every other year. I know while independent Navy ran a 4 win, 4 loss, 4 toss up games type set ups and were very successful. How do Navy fans feel about their current competitiveness in the conference? Would you be ok with two really good years, a solid or good year, and one rough season every cycle? Is that similar enough to the pattern of success you enjoyed as an independent?

Here's our record over the T.O. era:

2019 American 9 2 0
2018 American 3 10 0
2017 American 7 6 0 Military Bowl-W
2016 American 9 5 0 Armed Forces Bowl-L
2015 American 11 2 0 Military Bowl-W
2014 Ind 8 5 0 Poinsettia Bowl-W
2013 Ind 9 4 0 Armed Forces Bowl-W
2012 Ind 8 5 0 Fight Hunger Bowl-L
2011 Ind 5 7 0
2010 Ind 9 4 0 Poinsettia Bowl-L
2009 Ind 10 4 0 Texas Bowl-W
2008 Ind 8 5 0 EagleBank Bowl-L
2007 Ind 8 5 0 Poinsettia Bowl-L
2006 Ind 9 4 0 Meineke Car Care Bowl-L
2005 Ind 8 4 0 Poinsettia Bowl-W
2004 Ind 10 2 0 Emerald Bowl-W
2003 Ind 8 5 0 Houston Bowl-L


We played many of the same schools that we play now (Tulsa, ECU, SMU, Tulane, Temple), and had success against them.

Before we joined AAC, we won more games against P5 schools than any other non-P5 school. We had enough success against them, that they stopped scheduling us, which, in part, drove us to join the AAC.

We went to bowl games in every year from 2003 to when we joined the conference in 2016 (save 2011). In most of them we either won or were very competitive (exceptions being the Houston Bowl in 2003 and the Kraft bowl in 2012).

So, while there have been ups and downs, Navy has done very well, consistently, in the triple option era. So, I'm not sure about this cycle you're referring to.

If your question is really just what my expectations of our football program are, I list them in order of importance to me (YRMV):
1. "To develop Midshipmen morally, mentally and physically and to imbue them with the highest ideals of duty, honor and loyalty in order to graduate leaders who are dedicated to a career of naval service and have potential for future development in mind and character to assume the highest responsibilities of command, citizenship and government."

2. That we beat Army.

3. Be competitive in whatever league we play in.

9t8 does a good job of laying out the record - it hasn't been a cycle, it has been nearly two decades of sustained success. That is the expectation of a lot of Navy football fans recently.
On the other hand, these seventeen years of success were preceded by many more dark years. In the twenty years between George Welsh and Paul Johnson, we had only three winning seasons: Tranquill stayed above .500 in the first year after Welsh, with Paul Johnson as OC we had an Aloha Bowl-winning '96, and after Johnson left for Georgia Southern and Niumat took over as OC Navy went 7-4 in '97. (From 1983-2019, EVERY Navy winning season had PJ or Niumat as HC or OC.) Navy fans have enough scar tissue that last year's results actually led to people declaring the success over and some even suggesting that it was time to move on from Niumatalolo.

If your hypothesis is that the AAC schedule is just enough harder than Navy's independent schedule, that it will be a cycle with occasional 2018esque lows...I would disagree. Won't be able to tell for some time, but I will start with this year's results to say that 2018 (and the loss of identity and resultant slide that preceded it in mid-2017) is the anomaly and the outlier - evidence of neither cycle nor negative trend.

As far as the scheduling, yes, the Independent scheduling philosophy was 4 stretch games, 4 toss-ups, and 4 "should" win games. And that wasn't exactly scientific. So what do we have within the conference? I would say that the top 2-3 teams in the league will always go into the stretch game category, and a cellar dweller in each division translates to "should" win games. If the remaining conference games are "toss-ups", then adding the AAC schedule to ND, Army/AF, and an FCS, the baseline is 4-5-3 instead of 4-4-4.
2018, arguably all three of our East opponents plus Memphis were stretch games making our start point 5-4-3 or harder, but in 2019 at least two cross-divisional games were "should" games making our starting point 3-5-4 instead. That's really not much more variable than our independent schedules were - those opponents could wax or wane between the time of scheduling and playing.

You get down to those tossup games and it comes down to a Niumatism: It's freakin' hard to win football games; it's harder when you're the Naval Academy.

First I have no idea if it is a pattern, it was more of a hypothetical. I think last year was an anomaly in how far the dip was. However I think your analysis of the schedule is probably correct it will be most years a 4-5-3 set up or maybe a 3-6-3, which is probably the most accurate answer to my question. So while a 3-9 season is reason for concern, 2-3 seasons of competitiveness with an occasional 5-7, 6-6 year would be an acceptable baseline in general?

I am aware of the history (although Tulsa and Navy only played once I believe before Navy joined) of Navy, your recent success the last 15 years. I also know that winning changes culture and expectations. Only three seasons with fewer than 8 wins in the last fifteen is impressive for any academy. My question involved if that pattern of strong winning were to change in the AAC to an occasional one in four or five down years was this still a good choice to leave independence.

I think you both answered that as it is a positive and that so long as the 2011 and 2018 records continue to be an outlier then this will be a successful move. At Tulsa we have different restraints but I would say similar outlooks. I expect Tulsa to be competitive every year, usually a bowl team and on occasion to be competing for the conference title. 3-9 or 4-8 years should be outliers but have become the norm signaling a change is required.
12-03-2019 11:38 AM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-03-2019 11:38 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  I am aware of the history (although Tulsa and Navy only played once I believe before Navy joined) of Navy, your recent success the last 15 years. I also know that winning changes culture and expectations.

Twice, but point taken.

2004. 29-0 Navy
2006. 24-23 Tulsa
12-03-2019 06:50 PM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-03-2019 09:52 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 08:41 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 02:20 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Let's say the Tigers had lost to Cincy. Given that Navy beat Houston, Cincy would've hosted Navy in the AACCG.

Would that game not be played this weekend?

What is the contingency plan for that day when Navy does win the West?

You realize that Navy won the west in 2016, right?

Sorry... it's been so long since Memphis hadn't won the West... I can't remember that far back.


03-wink

Short memory, as we shared the title with you in 2017.
12-03-2019 07:10 PM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-03-2019 06:50 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 11:38 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  I am aware of the history (although Tulsa and Navy only played once I believe before Navy joined) of Navy, your recent success the last 15 years. I also know that winning changes culture and expectations.

Twice, but point taken.

2004. 29-0 Navy
2006. 24-23 Tulsa

That "06 game was Navy's first overtime game ever
12-03-2019 07:39 PM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-03-2019 07:10 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 09:52 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 08:41 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 02:20 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Let's say the Tigers had lost to Cincy. Given that Navy beat Houston, Cincy would've hosted Navy in the AACCG.

Would that game not be played this weekend?

What is the contingency plan for that day when Navy does win the West?

You realize that Navy won the west in 2016, right?

Sorry... it's been so long since Memphis hadn't won the West... I can't remember that far back.


03-wink

Short memory, as we shared the title with you in 2017.

No we didn't.
Our 4-4 record was T3 - head to head tiebreaker over SMU. Memphis won outright w Houston in second
12-03-2019 07:41 PM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-03-2019 07:10 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 09:52 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 08:41 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-02-2019 02:20 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  Let's say the Tigers had lost to Cincy. Given that Navy beat Houston, Cincy would've hosted Navy in the AACCG.

Would that game not be played this weekend?

What is the contingency plan for that day when Navy does win the West?

You realize that Navy won the west in 2016, right?

Sorry... it's been so long since Memphis hadn't won the West... I can't remember that far back.


03-wink

Short memory, as we shared the title with you in 2017.

I can't remember what I had for breakfast this morning.

Wait... did I have breakfast?
12-03-2019 08:07 PM
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Foreverandever Offline
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
(12-03-2019 07:39 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 06:50 PM)USNA9t8 Wrote:  
(12-03-2019 11:38 AM)Foreverandever Wrote:  I am aware of the history (although Tulsa and Navy only played once I believe before Navy joined) of Navy, your recent success the last 15 years. I also know that winning changes culture and expectations.

Twice, but point taken.

2004. 29-0 Navy
2006. 24-23 Tulsa

That "06 game was Navy's first overtime game ever

I believe it was our second one.
12-03-2019 08:11 PM
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RE: Theoretical: Navy and the CCG
Under the current Navy offensive system, their seasons will go as their QB's talents & health take them. Problem is their system is tough on a QB so there will be ups & downs. Others systems also depend on the QB but lots of FB success in other systems with a QB manager.
12-05-2019 08:04 AM
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