None of these arguments have really been reflected in the actual CFP rankings.

Utah has a marginally better loss (USC over KSU). Oklahoma has a marginally better set of top wins (ISU/OSU over WSU/UW).

OU's grade against Baylor (incomplete) is the same as Utah's grade against Oregon.
Oklahoma has an opportunity to retake a test (Baylor) that they didn't score particularly well on the first time.

If either team can score a resounding win, particularly if OU can put up a strong defensive effort or Utah can put up a strong offensive effort, that team will move ahead.

Also, I think it's worth looking at efficiency rankings for how the quality of these wins/losses is viewed.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

(12-03-2019 05:15 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  None of these arguments have really been reflected in the actual CFP rankings.

Utah has a marginally better loss (USC over KSU). Oklahoma has a marginally better set of top wins (ISU/OSU over WSU/UW).

OU's grade against Baylor (incomplete) is the same as Utah's grade against Oregon.
Oklahoma has an opportunity to retake a test (Baylor) that they didn't score particularly well on the first time.

If either team can score a resounding win, particularly if OU can put up a strong defensive effort or Utah can put up a strong offensive effort, that team will move ahead.

Also, I think it's worth looking at efficiency rankings for how the quality of these wins/losses is viewed.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

hello, Oklahoma gets to count Baylor twice, as they play them twice..... So no, the first Baylor game isn't matched up with Oregon, it's matched up with Washington. And that's a HUGE win for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma SOS this year 22
Utah SOS this year 54

Sorry but it's Oklahoma and it's not close.

(12-01-2019 09:50 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-01-2019 09:38 AM)esayem Wrote:  People complaining about Virginia getting the Orange Bowl: shut up. Seriously, it’s the way the bowl games are structured. Plus, they are actually an exciting team to watch with an explosive QB.

That's a ridiculous thing to say. Forums are meant to discuss how someone thinks things *should be* not just how they are.

I think the Orange Bowl contract should be modified such that Notre Dame can get in over an ACC team if higher ranked so long as the ACC team is not the ACC champion.

There is a precedent for this - the ACC's contract with ND says that ND is in the ACC bowl hierarchy, and that Notre Dame can actually be chosen by a lower-tier ACC bowl over an ACC team with a better record, so long as they are within one win of the ACC team being passed over. So for all the other bowls, Notre Dame can actually supplant a higher-ranked ACC team.

Of course, to be fair to the ACC, this should mean that ND is also fully-integrated into the ACC bowl hierarchy money-wise, meaning all ND bowl money goes in to the ACC pot just as it does for any other ACC team. E.g., when Notre Dame plays in a bowl outside the ACC hierarchy, like a playoff game, or this year's Cotton Bowl, ND currently gets to keep all that money, it doesn't share with the ACC.

That would have to end, so hell, maybe ND wouldn't want to take the ACC's spot in the OB and would prefer to keep the current arrangement.

But point is - ALL of this is fair game for discussion on this forum.

Got to love it! "We need to make these changes for the best for college football! These bowls are forced to pick undesirable teams!"

Meanwhile they fail to mention the fact that the G5 gets an assured spot in a NY6 and there isn't a single person between the Fiesta, Cotton, or Peach who looks forward to the year they get stuck with that selection.

(12-01-2019 12:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think LSU and Ohio St are in no matter what happens next Saturday.

Clemson and Georgia are win and in no matter what.

If LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson win, then it's down to Utah, Oklahoma, and Baylor. Oklahoma has by far the better resume. They have 4 wins vs winning teams and a top 10 win. Utah has no ranked wins, and only between 3-5 wins vs winning teams(pending ASU and Cal tonight). Oklahoma has a better CCG opponent as well. I think it goes Oklahoma- and it's not really close.

This. This is the most concise summary.

(12-01-2019 11:10 AM)stever20 Wrote:  1 thing that I think is crazy is we could go into Saturday with 3 teams having guaranteed spots in the playoffs....

If Oregon beats Utah (which I expect)

LSU, Ohio St, and Clemson would be in the playoffs no matter what.

4th spot-
Georgia if they beat LSU, otherwise Big 12 title game winner.

The 12-1 Big 12 champ would be in over 12-1 Clemson for the same reasons listed above about Utah.

This is my summary for that 4th spot.
37% Oklahoma
29% Georgia
23% Baylor
10% something more exciting (like Clemson losing or Wisconsin jumping in).

With a win over tOSU, I think Wisconsin has the better resume than a potential 12-1 Utah.

(12-03-2019 05:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  hello, Oklahoma gets to count Baylor twice, as they play them twice..... So no, the first Baylor game isn't matched up with Oregon, it's matched up with Washington. And that's a HUGE win for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma SOS this year 22
Utah SOS this year 54

Sorry but it's Oklahoma and it's not close.

You might want to look at the rankings and rethink that.

(12-03-2019 09:10 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 05:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  hello, Oklahoma gets to count Baylor twice, as they play them twice..... So no, the first Baylor game isn't matched up with Oregon, it's matched up with Washington. And that's a HUGE win for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma SOS this year 22
Utah SOS this year 54

Sorry but it's Oklahoma and it's not close.

You might want to look at the rankings and rethink that.

The rankings don't have that 2nd game in there yet. Oklahoma gets to play #7 team in the country. Utah gets to play the #13 team.

Also think it's big that Oklahoma St remained in the top 25. It's totally set up for Oklahoma to jump Utah.

(12-03-2019 09:52 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 09:10 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 05:41 PM)stever20 Wrote:  hello, Oklahoma gets to count Baylor twice, as they play them twice..... So no, the first Baylor game isn't matched up with Oregon, it's matched up with Washington. And that's a HUGE win for Oklahoma.

Oklahoma SOS this year 22
Utah SOS this year 54

Sorry but it's Oklahoma and it's not close.

You might want to look at the rankings and rethink that.

The rankings don't have that 2nd game in there yet. Oklahoma gets to play #7 team in the country. Utah gets to play the #13 team.

Also think it's big that Oklahoma St remained in the top 25. It's totally set up for Oklahoma to jump Utah.

Utah has been ahead of Oklahoma in every CFP ranking. The committee obviously likes Utah. I think it is very close between Utah and OU, and assuming both win, it may just come down to how well each plays in the CCG. Playing the No. 7 ranked team vs the No. 13 ranked team is not going to make a difference in the final outcome.

The rankings are a reflection of the school's record. No one really believes that Baylor is better than a number of schools ranked behind them, such as, Auburn, Alabama, Oregon. These schools are loaded with talent.

At this point, the committee knows about SOS, Sagarin ratings, any other variable you can think of. They both have a common opponent in UCLA. with OU winning 48-14 and Utah 49-3. Not much to learn there. They are currently giving the edge to Utah, but that could flip over the weekend after they watch the games. The decision is not going to be based on the fact that Oklahoma State is ranked No.25 by the CFP.

man I love Jalen Hurts... He was asked about his reaction after the game about the Iron Bowl..... And his answer is pure Nick Saban-

(12-03-2019 05:15 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  None of these arguments have really been reflected in the actual CFP rankings.

Utah has a marginally better loss (USC over KSU). Oklahoma has a marginally better set of top wins (ISU/OSU over WSU/UW).

OU's grade against Baylor (incomplete) is the same as Utah's grade against Oregon.
Oklahoma has an opportunity to retake a test (Baylor) that they didn't score particularly well on the first time.

If either team can score a resounding win, particularly if OU can put up a strong defensive effort or Utah can put up a strong offensive effort, that team will move ahead.

Also, I think it's worth looking at efficiency rankings for how the quality of these wins/losses is viewed.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

They beat the #7 team. That is a pretty good "score." Utah has lost to the only 8 win team they played. There is zero comparison of their schedule to Oklahoma.

The committee likes defense and likes Utah because of that. They also like Utah's MOV. But don't give us any bs about how their schedules are comparable.

(12-04-2019 10:13 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 05:15 PM)jrj84105 Wrote:  None of these arguments have really been reflected in the actual CFP rankings.

Utah has a marginally better loss (USC over KSU). Oklahoma has a marginally better set of top wins (ISU/OSU over WSU/UW).

OU's grade against Baylor (incomplete) is the same as Utah's grade against Oregon.
Oklahoma has an opportunity to retake a test (Baylor) that they didn't score particularly well on the first time.

If either team can score a resounding win, particularly if OU can put up a strong defensive effort or Utah can put up a strong offensive effort, that team will move ahead.

Also, I think it's worth looking at efficiency rankings for how the quality of these wins/losses is viewed.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus/2019

They beat the #7 team. That is a pretty good "score." Utah has lost to the only 8 win team they played. There is zero comparison of their schedule to Oklahoma.

The committee likes defense and likes Utah because of that. They also like Utah's MOV. But don't give us any bs about how their schedules are comparable.

One factor that might help Utah is that Baylor vs Oklahoma is a rematch. To me, it's not as impressive to beat the same team twice as it is to beat different teams. There's a "kissing your sister" element to beating Baylor twice. It's like "so OK, you've now really proved you can beat up Baylor" ....

I think the same thing applies to the Ohio State vs Wisky rematch as well.

So teams like LSU/Georgia and Utah, that are playing ranked teams they haven't faced, should have an advantage there.

What if Baylor beats OU? They'd have avenged their only loss and still have two top 25 wins vs. Utah's one.

(12-04-2019 11:06 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  What if Baylor beats OU? They'd have avenged their only loss and still have two top 25 wins vs. Utah's one.

I think that either way, a win in a rematch isn't as impressive as a "fresh win" versus a team of similar quality. You beat the team that beat you? Well that's because you already played them and thus learned about their strengths and weaknesses.

It's just IMO more impressive to beat a 'fresh' team than a team you already played, whether you won the first game or lost it.

Now sure, it's obviously way better and tougher to beat LSU twice than to beat Louisiana-Lafayette and Tulane. But in Oregon and Baylor we are talking about teams of similar quality.

(12-04-2019 11:06 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  What if Baylor beats OU? They'd have avenged their only loss and still have two top 25 wins vs. Utah's one.

Baylor jumps Utah.

In the post-show media call the word résumé was brought up a lot by Rob Mullens.
http://www.asapsports.com/show_conference.php?id=155801

(12-04-2019 11:36 AM)Renandpat Wrote:  

(12-04-2019 11:06 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  What if Baylor beats OU? They'd have avenged their only loss and still have two top 25 wins vs. Utah's one.

Baylor jumps Utah.

They shouldn't. The computers have Baylor at #12 right now, Utah at #6. The CFP for some reason is badly over-valuing Baylor. It's the worst positive computer discrepancy in the top 25.

If Oklahoma wins and does so by at least 2 possessions then they are absolutely in over 12-1 Utah.

Utah would have to absolutely obliterate Oregon to make a case that they are better.

Where things get interesting is if Clemson or LSU loses. A Clemson loss could very well open up spots for both Utah and Oklahoma. If LSU loses then neither Utah or Oklahoma are in.

I’m going off the presumption that both Ohio St and LSU are both locks regardless and that even if Wisconsin were to upset Ohio St, with two losses, the Badgers won’t get in.

If Clemson loses, they are out. No other way to spin that.

(12-03-2019 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 09:47 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Baylor is gonna get left out again.

what's bad is again, their OOC SOS will play a part....

2014- SMU, Northwestern St, Buffalo
2019- Stephen F Austin, UTSA, Rice

you schedule like that, you deserve what you get.

Oh and 2020-22, they play exactly 1 P5 team. Ole Miss next year. (and stop about BYU being a P5 team, they aren't).

You're not wrong, but it's still idiotic that we've created a system where 5 power five champions are vying for 4 spots. So now we have to decide arbitrarily between which one loss team is the best.

(12-03-2019 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 09:47 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Baylor is gonna get left out again.

what's bad is again, their OOC SOS will play a part....

2014- SMU, Northwestern St, Buffalo
2019- Stephen F Austin, UTSA, Rice

you schedule like that, you deserve what you get.

Oh and 2020-22, they play exactly 1 P5 team. Ole Miss next year. (and stop about BYU being a P5 team, they aren't).

1- If BYU isn’t P5 enough than Utah didn’t schedule up either

2- It’s very frustrating as a BU fan that the only year from 2017-2032 where BU doesn’t have a P5 or BYU has to be the year they go 11-1. The effort to schedule up was made but the one exception may burn them.

(12-04-2019 03:58 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 09:47 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Baylor is gonna get left out again.

what's bad is again, their OOC SOS will play a part....

2014- SMU, Northwestern St, Buffalo
2019- Stephen F Austin, UTSA, Rice

you schedule like that, you deserve what you get.

Oh and 2020-22, they play exactly 1 P5 team. Ole Miss next year. (and stop about BYU being a P5 team, they aren't).

1- If BYU isn’t P5 enough than Utah didn’t schedule up either

2- It’s very frustrating as a BU fan that the only year from 2017-2032 where BU doesn’t have a P5 or BYU has to be the year they go 11-1. The effort to schedule up was made but the one exception may burn them.

Yeah get what you're saying with #1. both of you guys put it in someone else's hands... It'd be interesting to see what the committee thinks of BYU. Probably on a year by year basis quite frankly with how they are.

(12-04-2019 03:58 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 10:32 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(12-03-2019 09:47 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Baylor is gonna get left out again.

what's bad is again, their OOC SOS will play a part....

2014- SMU, Northwestern St, Buffalo
2019- Stephen F Austin, UTSA, Rice

you schedule like that, you deserve what you get.

Oh and 2020-22, they play exactly 1 P5 team. Ole Miss next year. (and stop about BYU being a P5 team, they aren't).

1- If BYU isn’t P5 enough than Utah didn’t schedule up either

2- It’s very frustrating as a BU fan that the only year from 2017-2032 where BU doesn’t have a P5 or BYU has to be the year they go 11-1. The effort to schedule up was made but the one exception may burn them.

Or, is the non-conference schedule the very thing that enabled BU to have the successful 11-1 season? We will never know.

This is exactly why the current beauty pageant system for the right to enter the limited playoff is dumb.