RE: 2nd Rd playoffs: Monmouth (11-2/6-0) @ #2 JMU (11-1/8-0), Saturday, 12/7, 1 PM
Note that Monmouth has played 13 games to JMU’s 12 games when reading these stats.
Strength of Schedule (Massey):
JMU – 19th
MU – 66th
Total Offense:
MU – 3rd, 488.5 ypg 61 TDs
JMU – 9th, 470.9 ypg 61 TDs
Scoring Offense:
JMU – 2nd, 42.3 ppg
MU – 11th, 36.9 ppg
Passing Offense:
MU – 22nd, 275 ypg 29 TDs
JMU – 61st, 221.6 ypg 25 TDs
Rushing Offense:
JMU – 10th, 249.3 ypg 36 TDs
MU – 18th, 213.5 ypg 32 TDs
Total Defense:
JMU – 3rd, 277.8 ypg 22 TDs
MU – 35th, 353.6 ypg 43 TDs
Scoring Defense:
JMU – 3rd, 15.7 ppg
MU – 36th, 24.2 ppg
Passing Defense:
JMU – 59th, 215.1 ypg 15 TDs
MU – 76th, 230.5 ypg 31 TDs
Rushing Defense:
JMU – 1st, 62.8 ypg 6 TDs
MU – 22nd, 123.2 ypg 11 TDs
Red Area Offense:
JMU – 3rd, 59 for 63. 44 for 63 TDs.
MU – 55th, 47 for 58. 36 for 58 TDs.
Red Area Defense:
JMU – 21st, 22 for 30. 15 for 30 TDs.
MU – 86th, 32 for 38. 26 for 38 TDs.
Turnover Margin:
MU - +13, 24 gained, 11 lost.
JMU - +10, 23 gained, 13 lost.
Sacks:
JMU – 38 sacks, 22 sacks allowed.
MU – 25 sacks, 23 sacks allowed.
Passing Efficiency:
JMU – 2nd, Ben DiNucci, R-Sr. 187-266 (70.3%) 2,552 yds 22 TDs 4 INTs.
MU – 9th, Kenji Bahar, R-Sr. 273-416 (65.6%) 3,511 yds 29 TDs 8 INTs.
Notes:
A few notes about MU first. Their starting QB appeared to suffer a potential hamstring strain vs Holy Cross, but the QB said it was cramps. Visual evidence seems to indicate otherwise. Bahar is a dual threat QB and if his running speed is impacted, that will put more pressure on their nation leading rusher. Statistically, Bahar looks like a slightly less efficient DiNucci who has also passed more than JMU has all season.
Pete Guerrero is the leading rusher in the country and he appears to be talented. He did look great vs Holy Cross but Holy Cross didn’t look like anything noteworthy on the defensive side of the ball. They may have been the worst team in the entire playoff field. Certainly a top 3 worst in the field.
Here are the current rush defense rankings for all of Monmouth’s opponents that their RB put his nearly 1,900 yards on.
Western Michigan (FBS) – 94th (Loss)
Lafayette – 60th
Albany – 47th
Montana – 33rd (Loss)
Wagner – 38th
Presbyterian – 90th
Gardner-Webb – 117th
Charleston Southern – 109th
Kennesaw State – 7th
North Alabama – 112th
Campbell – 114th
Hampton – 48th
Holy Cross – 54th
I think those ranks speak for themselves. Only five opponents were a top 50 defense. Only one was top 25, although they did beat Kennesaw. That’s a triple option team used to defending the run by default.
Our defense should be the difference in this game. If we continue to be the nation’s best rushing defense, Guerrero and Bahar should be contained. Our pass D will really be tested when they try to pass to set up the run of Guerrero. We need pressure on Bahar constantly.
This Monmouth D doesn’t look great, just average. We need to score on every drive we have to start the first half to really start to put pressure on Monmouth’s O to keep their riskier plays coming. That’s when we can force some turnovers.
If we bring our A game, we should be fine. If we don’t execute on O and turn the ball over all day, then Monmouth has the guns to pull an upset. I can see Monmouth’s offense scoring between 14 and 21 during meaningful time and our offense has to simply outpace them to make sure our D has some margin for the inevitable errors that will occur.
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2019 03:05 PM by Potomac.)
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2nd Rd playoffs: Monmouth (11-2/6-0) @ #2 JMU (11-1/8-0), Saturday, 12/7, 1 PM
