From an Overall Perspective...
The Committee does not have a cut and dry job this year. Multiple teams who were penciled in as favorites for Seeds were upset on the final weekend, so many of those spots are up in the air. In addition, as you will see near the end of this write-up, there are 7 teams that could easily be picked for the final 3 spots. There is real suspense this year.
From a JMU Perspective...
JMU has clearly earned the #2 Seed. The Committee even had us as #2 in their rankings a few weeks ago. With that being settled, all that’s left is finding out in what other ways the Committee will try to screw us. I am prepared for almost anything.
By the Numbers (108 total teams)...
Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/27 – 92
11/3 – 81
11/10 – 66
11/17 – 56
11/24 – 45
Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/27 – 79
11/3 – 74
11/10 – 61
11/17 – 49
11/24 – 35
Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/27 – 12
11/3 – 21
11/10 – 33
11/17 – 34
11/24 – 35
Since this is a 12-game season...Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/27 – 3
11/3 – 8
11/10 – 16
11/17 – 22
11/24 – 24
Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in
RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in
GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in
BLUE.
Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky – Weber State
Big South – Monmouth
CAA – JMU
MVC – NDSU
NEC – CCSU
OVC – Austin Peay
Patriot – Holy Cross
Pioneer – San Diego
SoCon – Wofford
Southland – Nicholls State
CAA (6 Teams Alive)
JMU – 11 wins – clinched AQ
Villanova – 9 wins
Albany – 8 wins
Towson – 7 wins
UNH – 6 wins
Maine – 6 wins
Big Sky (5 Teams Alive)
Weber State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Montana – 9 wins
Montana State – 9 wins
Sacramento State – 8 wins
EWU – 6 wins
Big South (2 Teams Alive)
Monmouth – 10 wins – clinched AQ
Kennesaw State – 9 wins
Independents (1 Team Alive – No AQ)
North Dakota – 7 wins
MEAC (2 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T – 8 wins – clinched “bowl” game
Bethune-Cookman – 7 wins
SC State – 7 wins
MVC (6 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 12 wins – clinched AQ
No. Iowa – 8 wins
SDSU – 8 wins
Illinois State – 8 wins
SIU – 7 wins
Youngstown State – 6 wins
NEC (4 Teams Alive)
CCSU – 11 wins – clinched AQ
Sacred Heart – 7 wins
Robert Morris – 7 wins
StFU – 6 wins
OVC (5 Teams Alive)
Austin Peay – 9 wins – clinched AQ
SE Missouri State – 8 wins
Tenn.-Martin – 7 wins
EKU – 7 wins
Jacksonville State – 6 wins
Patriot League (1 Team Alive)
Holy Cross – 7 wins
Pioneer League (4 Teams Alive)
San Diego – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Dayton – 8 wins
Davidson – 6 wins
Drake – 6 wins
SoCon (4 Teams Alive)
Wofford – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Furman – 7 wins
Citadel – 6 wins
Chattanooga – 6 wins
Southland (5 Teams Alive)
Nicholls State – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Central Ark – 9 wins
SE Louisiana – 7 wins
McNeese State – 7 wins
Sam Houston State – 6 wins
Finished with 9 wins (without winning AQ):
Villanova – 9 wins
Montana – 9 wins
Montana State – 9 wins
Kennesaw State – 9 wins
Central Ark – 9 wins
Finished with 8 wins (without winning AQ):
Albany – 8 wins
Sacramento State – 8 wins
No. Iowa – 8 wins
SDSU – 8 wins
Illinois State – 8 wins
SE Missouri State – 8 wins
Dayton – 8 wins
Finished with 7 wins (without winning AQ):
Towson – 7 wins
North Dakota – 7 wins (11 games)
Bethune-Cookman – 7 wins (11 games)
SC State – 7 wins
SIU – 7 wins
Sacred Heart – 7 wins
Robert Morris – 7 wins
Tenn.-Martin – 7 wins
EKU – 7 wins
Furman – 7 wins
SE Louisiana – 7 wins (11 games)
McNeese State – 7 wins
Finished with 6 wins (without winning AQ):
UNH – 6 wins (11 games)
Maine – 6 wins
EWU – 6 wins
Youngstown State – 6 wins
StFU – 6 wins
Jacksonville State – 6 wins
Davidson – 6 wins
Drake – 6 wins
Citadel – 6 wins
Chattanooga – 6 wins
Sam Houston State – 6 wins
Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this past week)
North Alabama (transitioning to I-AA until 2022)
Merrimack (transitioning to I-AA until 2023)
FAMU (postseason ban for low APR)
Stony Brook
Richmond
Delaware
W&M
Elon
URI
UC Davis
Northern Arizona
Idaho
Portland State
Northern Colorado
Idaho State
Cal Poly
Southern Utah
Campbell
Charleston Southern
Gardner-Webb
Hampton
Presbyterian
NC Central
Howard
Norfolk State
Morgan State
Delaware State
South Dakota
Indiana State
W. Illinois
Missouri State
Duquesne
Bryant
Wagner
LIU
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
Tenn. State
EIU
Lafayette
Colgate
Georgetown
Fordham
Lehigh
Bucknell
Marist
Stetson
Morehead State
Butler
Valparaiso
Jacksonville
Samford
Mercer
VMI
ETSU
Western Carolina
Incarnate Word
Abilene Christian
Lamar
Houston Baptist
NW State
Stephen F. Austin
Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
NDSU
Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
LIU
Texas Southern
Conference Analysis
CAA – JMU has the AQ. Villanova won their third game in a row to finish with a record of 9-3 with some ok wins and no terrible losses, so they should be assured of at least an At-Large bid. With a number of top I-AA teams losing this weekend, they are also now a possible low Seed. Albany was able to survive a big scare from Stony Brook to finish at 8-4. They also should be an easy pick for an At-Large bid. Towson lost their game to Elon in the final minute. They are in big trouble. While they do have 7 wins, none of them are to teams with winning records. Their first four losses were to strong teams, but the loss to Elon might be too much to overcome since it drops them down to 5th place in the conference. In 4th place is UNH – who was able to knock off rival Maine. They finish with a record of 6-5 since they only played 11 games. They have one very good win (Villanova) but also lost three of their final five games. They will also be a bubble team, but we’ll have to see who their competition is at the bottom of this article. Maine finished with 6 wins, but their loss to UNH wiped them out – they’re done.
Big Sky – We could have has a 5-way tie for the conference title, but fortunately we only ended up with two teams at the top – and they played each other, so figuring out the AQ is easy. Weber State beat Sacramento State three weeks ago and that win was the difference. Weber, Montana, and Montana State all finish at 9-3, while Sacramento finishes with an 8-3 record. All of them will make the playoffs. As for Seeds, Weber State and Sacramento should both have high ones. Montana State crushed Montana in the final week to give them the edge for a likely third Seed for the Big Sky. Montana will probably have to play in the first round. As for EWU, they have now reached 6 wins, but that won’t be enough.
Big South – Monmouth has the AQ. In second place is Kennesaw State – whose only losses were to Monmouth and I-A Kent State. They don’t have any great wins, but they should get an At-Large. As for Monmouth, there is a good chance that they will get a low Seed.
Independents – North Dakota won their final game to put them at 7-4. They have beaten some good teams (Sam Houston, Montana State), but they do have one terrible loss (Idaho State). It is difficult for an Independent team to make the playoffs, but they could have a shot. They would, for all intents and purposes, be the 5th Big Sky team – behind EWU (who they lost to) in the conference standings, but ahead of them overall. (That 7th win is huge.)
MEAC – To make the playoffs, a MEAC team cannot win the conference title (which would send them to the HBCU “bowl” game) and they have to have a very strong resume. This year, there is an extra hitch...the conference leader, FAMU, is ineligible for the HBCU “bowl” this year due to low APR scores. So since FAMU is out, it looks like the 2nd best MEAC team will be the representative in that “bowl”. That means the highest team that would be eligible for a playoff At-Large spot would be the 3rd best MEAC team. NC A&T will play in the HBCU “bowl” game. SC State will finish right behind them, but with three losses (and only 7 D1 wins), they should not receive serious At-Large consideration.
MVC – NDSU has the AQ, an undefeated record, and almost certainly the #1 Seed. In second place is Northern Iowa. They have 8 wins and no bad losses and will likely receive a Seed. Youngstown State finished with 6 overall wins, but at only 2-6 in the conference, there is no way they will be seriously considered for an At-Large. That leaves Illinois State, SDSU, and SIU – who all lost this weekend. For Illinois State and SDSU, those losses almost certainly ruined their chances for Seeds, but they should still get At-Large bids. Both teams are 8-4 and have good wins, although they both also now have losses that could be considered “beneath” them. Finally, there is SIU. They finished at 7-5 with a I-A win (UMass). They have no bad losses and they were even able to keep NDSU very close until the end. They have a very good chance of making it in as the 5th MVC team.
NEC – CCSU has the AQ. Even with 11 wins, they have too weak of a resume to receive a Seed. None of the other teams in the NEC merit At-Large consideration.
OVC – Austin Peay had no trouble with EIU and was able to secure the AQ in the process. They finish with a record of 9-3, although two of those losses (ETSU, Tennessee State) are terrible – which will keep them from receiving a Seed. SEMO finished just behind Austin Peay, but with 8 D1 wins and no bad losses. They should get an At-Large. UT-Martin is in 3rd place with 7 wins and no bad losses. They will be on the bubble. EKU and Jacksonville State are the other teams still alive, but the OVC just isn’t good enough to receive more than 3 teams, so I think they’re both out.
Patriot – Holy Cross shutout Georgetown to secure the AQ. No other team in the Patriot even has 6 wins, so there’s really nothing more to talk about here.
Pioneer – San Diego has the AQ. They have continued their conference winning streak, but they will be playing (and travelling) in the opening round. No team from the Pioneer should get an At-Large.
SoCon – Wofford has the AQ. They finish with a record of 8-3 with losses to SC State, Samford, and I-A Clemson. They will be in the discussion for a Seed, but two of those losses are to weaker teams. Furman has no bad losses, but they also do not have any great wins. They do have 7 wins, so they will probably get in. Chatty and Citadel both lost this weekend to keep them at 6 wins – which kills their chances.
Southland – The AQ came down to the Nicholls/SELA game on Thursday night – which was won by Nicholls. They get the AQ. Central Arkansas finished in 2nd place and with 9 wins (including a I-A win), so they will be in with an At-Large. SELA has four losses, but none of them are really terrible, so they will be on the bubble at 7-4. Behind them are McNeese and Sam Houston, but, like the OVC, the Southland just isn’t a conference that should get more than three teams in the playoffs, so they’re out.
My Playoff Picks:
With the 10 AQ spots decided, we need to figure out the 14 At-Large teams. We start with the 35 teams alive for an At-Large spot and then take away the ones who really have no shot. (This would be the MEAC, NEC, and Pioneer teams.) That gets us down to 28 teams left. Then I would get rid of all teams that played 12 games but only got 6 wins. That gets us down to 20 teams. Next would be the 4th place team and higher from the OVC and Southland. So the following 18 teams are left:
Villanova – 9 wins
Montana – 9 wins
Montana State – 9 wins
Kennesaw State – 9 wins
Central Ark – 9 wins
Albany – 8 wins
Sacramento State – 8 wins
No. Iowa – 8 wins
SDSU – 8 wins
Illinois State – 8 wins
SE Missouri State – 8 wins
Towson – 7 wins
North Dakota – 7 wins (11 games)
SIU – 7 wins
Tenn.-Martin – 7 wins
Furman – 7 wins
SE Louisiana – 7 wins (11 games)
UNH – 6 wins (11 games)
On that list, I think all teams with 8 or more wins will get in, so the focus turns to the 7 win teams and UNH (who only played 11 games). 21 spots have now been claimed, so we have to select three teams from this list:
Towson – 7 wins
North Dakota – 7 wins (11 games)
SIU – 7 wins
Tenn.-Martin – 7 wins
Furman – 7 wins
SE Louisiana – 7 wins (11 games)
UNH – 6 wins (11 games)
From that list, I think SIU, Furman, and SELA have the best chances of getting in.
Ultimately, here are my picks for Seeds and First-Round match-ups (if I got to make the choices):
Seeds
Seed #1 – NDSU
Seed #2 – JMU
Seed #3 – Weber State
Seed #4 – Sacramento State
Seed #5 – UNI
Seed #6 – Montana State
Seed #7 – Villanova
Seed #8 – Monmouth
Round 1
Montana
San Diego
– winner goes to NDSU
Kennesaw State
Furman
– winner goes to Villanova
Central Ark
Wofford
– winner goes to Montana State
Albany
Holy Cross
– winner goes to Monmouth
Illinois State
CCSU
– winner goes to UNI
SIU
Austin Peay
– winner goes to JMU
SDSU
Nicholls State
– winner goes to Weber State
SE Missouri State
SE Louisiana
– winner goes to Sacramento State
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Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/24/19
