(11-22-2019 12:36 AM)Crayton Wrote: While Baylor and Oklahoma are 2 games ahead of Texas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State, there are many scenarios where some combination of the 5 tie at 6-3 for 1st or 2nd place. While some sites claim 2^10 possible scenarios, they all boil down to the following guideline:
Oklahoma > Texas > Baylor > OK State > Iowa State
BUT, here are the 3 exceptions I found:
#1 if Oklahoma and OK State are tied for #2 (with or without Iowa State), then OK State goes to the Championship Game.
#2, if Oklahoma, Baylor, and OK State are tied for #1 (with or without Iowa State) AND TCU beats West Virginia, then Baylor and OK State go to the Championship Game.
#3, if Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State tie for #2 AND TCU beats (AND OK State loses to) both Oklahoma and West Virginia, then Baylor goes to the Championship Game.
#s 1 and 2 are the ONLY scenarios where OK State goes to the Championship Game and the ONLY ones where Oklahoma stays home. And, yes, Iowa State is eliminated.
To those of you worried about my sanity. Sorry. I did go through these scenarios by hand.
Lol, you're probably more sane than I am.
............
FUN FACT: Big 12 teams are not on equal footing with each other in regard to the conference's tiebreak system. In fact, if there was total, continual parity in the Big 12, with all teams winning and losing all of their designated home and away games by, say, 1 point apiece, only 4 teams would ever play for the title. Those are TCU & Iowa State in even years and Texas & Oklahoma State in odd ones. This is due to the Big 12's first tiebreaker for 3 or more teams – cumulative head-to-head. Now, that's a just, reasonable tiebreak unto itself... The problem, ultimately, is
the Big 12's home/away matrix, which is unnecessarily screwy.
Each Big 12 team plays 9 games every two years against advantaged teams – teams that have 5 designated home conference games on their schedule. For each team, 4 of those 9 should be designated home games (2 per year) and the other 5 should be designated away games (2 when they have 5 designated home games of their own and 3 when they have only 4.) That way, the annual 5-way tie for 1st place under that total parity hypothetical could only ever be broken by the Big 12's final tiebreaker – a draw. So if there was such parity, all teams would have an equal opportunity of reaching the CG once in any two-year period, their having an equal chance of having their name drawn once every two years – every other year when they finish tied for 1st. That would be as it should be, but it isn't...
Below is a sort of ranking of Big 12 team schedules, sorted from most advantageous in regard to tiebreakers to least advantageous, followed by the number of designated home games each team has against advantaged teams per two-year cycle, followed by the number of designated home games they have against the other 4 advantaged teams when they, themselves, have 5 designated home games, followed, where applicable, by the number of designated home games they have against fellow advantaged teams that have an equal number of designated home games against advantaged teams as they do, followed by the years in which they have the 5-designated home game advantage.
1. Texas 6-3-1-ODD
1. Texas Christian 6-3-1-EVEN
3. Iowa State 6-3-0-EVEN
3. Oklahoma State 6-3-0-ODD
5. Kansas 4-2-N/A-ODD
5. Texas Tech 4-2-1-EVEN
7. West Virginia 4-2-0-EVEN
8. Kansas State 2-1-1-ODD
9. Baylor 2-1-0-ODD
10. Oklahoma 0-0-N/A-EVEN
So in even years, TCU, Iowa St, TT, WV & Oklahoma would finish in a 5-way tie for first. TCU & Iowa St would advance by virtue of the fact that they each have 3 home games (3 wins) against the other 4, while the other 3 have less than that. TCU gets Iowa State at home in even years, so in that scenario they would have beaten Iowa State head-to-head and been made the top seed, the "home" team in the CG rematch with Iowa State.
Of course, there isn't total parity in the Big 12 and there never will be. That's silly. Still, those built-in advantages and disadvantages are real, and the more parity there might be at the top, the more likely those tiebreaker inequities would play a part. Baylor and Oklahoma, especially, should always hope to clinch a spot outright. Oklahoma most especially. Year in and year out, all of the Sooner's designated road games are against advantaged teams and all of their designated home games are against disadvantaged ones. The odds should be against them when it comes to tiebreakers, as a majority of all games are won by home teams. (Least I think that's true.
)
BTW, some team in the PAC North (Cal, IIRC) is in the same boat as Oklahoma regarding their intra-divisional schedule: zero home games against advantaged teams.