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Big 12 Tie-breakers (no team has clinched, 4 still in the running)
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #1
Big 12 Tie-breakers (no team has clinched, 4 still in the running)
While Baylor and Oklahoma are 2 games ahead of Texas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State, there are many scenarios where some combination of the 5 tie at 6-3 for 1st or 2nd place. While some sites claim 2^10 possible scenarios, they all boil down to the following guideline:

Oklahoma > Texas > Baylor > OK State > Iowa State

BUT, here are the 3 exceptions I found:

#1 if Oklahoma and OK State are tied for #2 (with or without Iowa State), then OK State goes to the Championship Game.
#2, if Oklahoma, Baylor, and OK State are tied for #1 (with or without Iowa State) AND TCU beats West Virginia, then Baylor and OK State go to the Championship Game.
#3, if Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State tie for #2 AND TCU beats (AND OK State loses to) both Oklahoma and West Virginia, then Baylor goes to the Championship Game.

#s 1 and 2 are the ONLY scenarios where OK State goes to the Championship Game and the ONLY ones where Oklahoma stays home. And, yes, Iowa State is eliminated.

To those of you worried about my sanity. Sorry. I did go through these scenarios by hand.
11-22-2019 12:36 AM
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sierrajip Offline
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RE: Big 12 Tie-breakers (no team has clinched, 4 still in the running)
As far as I am concerned, Baylor blew it. Oklahoma is my favorite to win the conference now.
11-22-2019 05:39 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Big 12 Tie-breakers (no team has clinched, 4 still in the running)
(11-22-2019 05:39 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  As far as I am concerned, Baylor blew it. Oklahoma is my favorite to win the conference now.

I have never thought Baylor had a chance, as I expected that even if Baylor won last week, they would just play OK in the CCG anyway and that time OK would win. OK is just better IMO.

But, to me this one of the bad things about the divisionless CCG. It gives the loser a second chance. E.g., when Florida played Georgia a couple weeks ago, it was big for a few reasons but one of the biggest was everyone know that it was almost surely for the SEC East title. The winner would go to the SEC title game and be alive for the playoffs, while there would be no second chances for the loser.

Yes, I know that because of cross-division play, rematches are possible even if a conference has divisions. But to me that's not the same thing as a rematch in a no-division scenario. The latter smacks as a cheap not-earned second chance.

Heck to me, the AAC in 2020 will have it right, not the Big 12. The NCAA rule should be that you can only have a divisionless CCG if you do NOT play a full round-robin. Because with a full round-robin, there's no need for a CCG, the round-robin plus H2H tiebreaker tells you who the best team was.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2019 08:30 AM by quo vadis.)
11-22-2019 08:28 AM
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bill dazzle Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Big 12 Tie-breakers (no team has clinched, 4 still in the running)
Agree fully on this from QV (below). I want the AAC to add a member (and I'm fine with an all-sports addition) so as to have two six-team divisions (and I would be fine with a 14-team arrangement).


Heck to me, the AAC in 2020 will have it right, not the Big 12. The NCAA rule should be that you can only have a divisionless CCG if you do NOT play a full round-robin. Because with a full round-robin, there's no need for a CCG, the round-robin plus H2H tiebreaker tells you who the best team was.
11-22-2019 08:37 AM
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bullet Offline
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RE: Big 12 Tie-breakers (no team has clinched, 4 still in the running)
(11-22-2019 08:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-22-2019 05:39 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  As far as I am concerned, Baylor blew it. Oklahoma is my favorite to win the conference now.

I have never thought Baylor had a chance, as I expected that even if Baylor won last week, they would just play OK in the CCG anyway and that time OK would win. OK is just better IMO.

But, to me this one of the bad things about the divisionless CCG. It gives the loser a second chance. E.g., when Florida played Georgia a couple weeks ago, it was big for a few reasons but one of the biggest was everyone know that it was almost surely for the SEC East title. The winner would go to the SEC title game and be alive for the playoffs, while there would be no second chances for the loser.

Yes, I know that because of cross-division play, rematches are possible even if a conference has divisions. But to me that's not the same thing as a rematch in a no-division scenario. The latter smacks as a cheap not-earned second chance.

Heck to me, the AAC in 2020 will have it right, not the Big 12. The NCAA rule should be that you can only have a divisionless CCG if you do NOT play a full round-robin. Because with a full round-robin, there's no need for a CCG, the round-robin plus H2H tiebreaker tells you who the best team was.

I never liked the divisionless championship game. Or the divisionless BCS a la 2011 and 2017 giving Alabama a mulligan.

It can even take away from the regular season. Had Texas held on for another second against ISU and won out (along with OU winning 1 of their last 2) or wins one of the tiebreaks in the unlikely 6-3 multi-tie scenarios, Texas-OU would be playing twice for the second straight year.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2019 09:11 AM by bullet.)
11-22-2019 09:10 AM
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chester Offline
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RE: Big 12 Tie-breakers (no team has clinched, 4 still in the running)
(11-22-2019 12:36 AM)Crayton Wrote:  While Baylor and Oklahoma are 2 games ahead of Texas, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State, there are many scenarios where some combination of the 5 tie at 6-3 for 1st or 2nd place. While some sites claim 2^10 possible scenarios, they all boil down to the following guideline:

Oklahoma > Texas > Baylor > OK State > Iowa State

BUT, here are the 3 exceptions I found:

#1 if Oklahoma and OK State are tied for #2 (with or without Iowa State), then OK State goes to the Championship Game.
#2, if Oklahoma, Baylor, and OK State are tied for #1 (with or without Iowa State) AND TCU beats West Virginia, then Baylor and OK State go to the Championship Game.
#3, if Texas, Baylor, and Iowa State tie for #2 AND TCU beats (AND OK State loses to) both Oklahoma and West Virginia, then Baylor goes to the Championship Game.

#s 1 and 2 are the ONLY scenarios where OK State goes to the Championship Game and the ONLY ones where Oklahoma stays home. And, yes, Iowa State is eliminated.

To those of you worried about my sanity. Sorry. I did go through these scenarios by hand.

Lol, you're probably more sane than I am. 03-phew

............

FUN FACT: Big 12 teams are not on equal footing with each other in regard to the conference's tiebreak system. In fact, if there was total, continual parity in the Big 12, with all teams winning and losing all of their designated home and away games by, say, 1 point apiece, only 4 teams would ever play for the title. Those are TCU & Iowa State in even years and Texas & Oklahoma State in odd ones. This is due to the Big 12's first tiebreaker for 3 or more teams – cumulative head-to-head. Now, that's a just, reasonable tiebreak unto itself... The problem, ultimately, is the Big 12's home/away matrix, which is unnecessarily screwy.

Each Big 12 team plays 9 games every two years against advantaged teams – teams that have 5 designated home conference games on their schedule. For each team, 4 of those 9 should be designated home games (2 per year) and the other 5 should be designated away games (2 when they have 5 designated home games of their own and 3 when they have only 4.) That way, the annual 5-way tie for 1st place under that total parity hypothetical could only ever be broken by the Big 12's final tiebreaker – a draw. So if there was such parity, all teams would have an equal opportunity of reaching the CG once in any two-year period, their having an equal chance of having their name drawn once every two years – every other year when they finish tied for 1st. That would be as it should be, but it isn't...

Below is a sort of ranking of Big 12 team schedules, sorted from most advantageous in regard to tiebreakers to least advantageous, followed by the number of designated home games each team has against advantaged teams per two-year cycle, followed by the number of designated home games they have against the other 4 advantaged teams when they, themselves, have 5 designated home games, followed, where applicable, by the number of designated home games they have against fellow advantaged teams that have an equal number of designated home games against advantaged teams as they do, followed by the years in which they have the 5-designated home game advantage.

1. Texas 6-3-1-ODD
1. Texas Christian 6-3-1-EVEN
3. Iowa State 6-3-0-EVEN
3. Oklahoma State 6-3-0-ODD
5. Kansas 4-2-N/A-ODD
5. Texas Tech 4-2-1-EVEN
7. West Virginia 4-2-0-EVEN
8. Kansas State 2-1-1-ODD
9. Baylor 2-1-0-ODD
10. Oklahoma 0-0-N/A-EVEN

So in even years, TCU, Iowa St, TT, WV & Oklahoma would finish in a 5-way tie for first. TCU & Iowa St would advance by virtue of the fact that they each have 3 home games (3 wins) against the other 4, while the other 3 have less than that. TCU gets Iowa State at home in even years, so in that scenario they would have beaten Iowa State head-to-head and been made the top seed, the "home" team in the CG rematch with Iowa State.

Of course, there isn't total parity in the Big 12 and there never will be. That's silly. Still, those built-in advantages and disadvantages are real, and the more parity there might be at the top, the more likely those tiebreaker inequities would play a part. Baylor and Oklahoma, especially, should always hope to clinch a spot outright. Oklahoma most especially. Year in and year out, all of the Sooner's designated road games are against advantaged teams and all of their designated home games are against disadvantaged ones. The odds should be against them when it comes to tiebreakers, as a majority of all games are won by home teams. (Least I think that's true. 07-coffee3)

BTW, some team in the PAC North (Cal, IIRC) is in the same boat as Oklahoma regarding their intra-divisional schedule: zero home games against advantaged teams.
11-22-2019 10:41 PM
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chester Offline
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RE: Big 12 Tie-breakers (no team has clinched, 4 still in the running)
(11-22-2019 08:28 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-22-2019 05:39 AM)sierrajip Wrote:  As far as I am concerned, Baylor blew it. Oklahoma is my favorite to win the conference now.

I have never thought Baylor had a chance, as I expected that even if Baylor won last week, they would just play OK in the CCG anyway and that time OK would win. OK is just better IMO.

But, to me this one of the bad things about the divisionless CCG. It gives the loser a second chance. E.g., when Florida played Georgia a couple weeks ago, it was big for a few reasons but one of the biggest was everyone know that it was almost surely for the SEC East title. The winner would go to the SEC title game and be alive for the playoffs, while there would be no second chances for the loser.

Yes, I know that because of cross-division play, rematches are possible even if a conference has divisions. But to me that's not the same thing as a rematch in a no-division scenario. The latter smacks as a cheap not-earned second chance.

Heck to me, the AAC in 2020 will have it right, not the Big 12. The NCAA rule should be that you can only have a divisionless CCG if you do NOT play a full round-robin. Because with a full round-robin, there's no need for a CCG, the round-robin plus H2H tiebreaker tells you who the best team was.

I guess it depends on how you look at it. It's true that the Big 12's CG isn't needed to determine a champion, but, at the same time, it isn't unfair to have one. With a CG in place, the object isn't to finish in 1st but to finish in 1st or 2nd, and that's a luxury afforded to all teams, including the eventual top team. Since the Big 12 CG isn't unfair, and since it (presumably) makes money and since it provides the CFP committee that "13th data point," I think there's some sense in their having a CG.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2019 10:57 PM by chester.)
11-22-2019 10:55 PM
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