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(11-19-2019 07:57 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(11-19-2019 07:26 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Not that it matters in the big picture but I find it funny that we are the only undefeated team in the AAC and our only loss is to Ohio St and yet Memphis gets a spot above us. We beat Temple Saturday night and that ranking position will [should] flip.

Memphis has 2 wins better than our best win. I think it's close enough to be debatable.

For the sake of comparison...

Memphis beat a 4-7 Ole Miss at home by 5 points
Beat Navy and SMU [still ranked] both at home
Beat Tulsa by one point after a missed Tulsa FG
Beat two Sun Belt squads - South Alabama [1-9] and Louisiana Monroe [4-6]
Beat FCS Southern University
Lost to Temple on the road

Cincinnati beat 4-6 UCLA by 10 points at home
Beat 6-4 MyAMuh, Oh
Beat 7-3 Marshall on the road
Beat UCF at home who was ranked at the time
Beat ECU on the road by 3 points
Did not play an FCS squad
Lost to #2 Ohio St on the road

Massey Composite Memphis is #19 and Cincinnati #17. Sagarin has Memphis's SOS ranked #77 and Cincinnati's #69. We're also the only undefeated in the American. I'm no expert on the CFP metrics but IMO the resumes are very comparable when you look at the body of work. I just don't agree that Memphis should jump us when we've been above them and haven't lost. To be fair, I also don't agree with many of the teams that are ranked/where they are ranked. Yeah, I'm finding something to complain about but this is serious stuff when we're down to two more games left plus the Conf Chip game. Bottom line is winning will take care of what really matters.

I doubt highly the committee spends much time on the teams below the top 10. They get the playoff teams right and then slot in the rest in a way that looks good. And as I do not see any representatives of the American and a bunch from the P5, guess who gets the most consideration.

The bias in these rankings is a joke. I wouldn't waste my breath trying to justify them or discredit deserving teams (as opposed to those without the results, but rather "good" losses, tradition, hype, or money), otherwise you're part of the problem.

(11-19-2019 10:04 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  

(11-19-2019 08:30 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  

(11-19-2019 08:01 PM)C1ncy4Life Wrote:  I can see Memphis ahead of us, but overall it seems the American teams are slightly undervalued compared to teams like App State and Boise.

Maybe other American teams but our ranking is more than fair. We've beat ECU and USF recently on FG at the buzzer. We're not a top 20 team, although we can earn the ranking over the next 3 weeks.

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I’d say all American steams are slightly undervalued compared to Boise and App State.

SMU’s only loss is a one possession loss on the road to Memphis and yet Boise and App State are both ahead of them.

Memphis has a couple 3 loss teams in front of them and I think they deserve to be ahead of Iowa.

Cincinnati may not win pretty, but their only loss is still on the road to the most talented team in CFB. I’m not going to argue this one much, because overall I have concerns based on our passing game, but nevertheless they continue to win.

I think there should be more space between Memphis/UC and Boise/App State and in the case of SMU they should be ahead of those 2.

Interesting because App St lost to a 6 & 4 Georgia Southern at home. If UC or Memphis would Lost to a team like that we would not be in the top 25.

(11-19-2019 10:39 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(11-19-2019 07:57 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(11-19-2019 07:26 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Not that it matters in the big picture but I find it funny that we are the only undefeated team in the AAC and our only loss is to Ohio St and yet Memphis gets a spot above us. We beat Temple Saturday night and that ranking position will [should] flip.

Memphis has 2 wins better than our best win. I think it's close enough to be debatable.

For the sake of comparison...

Memphis beat a 4-7 Ole Miss at home by 5 points
Beat Navy and SMU [still ranked] both at home
Beat Tulsa by one point after a missed Tulsa FG
Beat two Sun Belt squads - South Alabama [1-9] and Louisiana Monroe [4-6]
Beat FCS Southern University
Lost to Temple on the road

Cincinnati beat 4-6 UCLA by 10 points at home
Beat 6-4 MyAMuh, Oh
Beat 7-3 Marshall on the road
Beat UCF at home who was ranked at the time
Beat ECU on the road by 3 points
Did not play an FCS squad
Lost to #2 Ohio St on the road

Massey Composite Memphis is #19 and Cincinnati #17. Sagarin has Memphis's SOS ranked #77 and Cincinnati's #69. We're also the only undefeated in the American. I'm no expert on the CFP metrics but IMO the resumes are very comparable when you look at the body of work. I just don't agree that Memphis should jump us when we've been above them and haven't lost. To be fair, I also don't agree with many of the teams that are ranked/where they are ranked. Yeah, I'm finding something to complain about but this is serious stuff when we're down to two more games left plus the Conf Chip game. Bottom line is winning will take care of what really matters.

All of this goes to show what we already know...no one on that committee cares past about #10, and they just pick teams out of a hat.

(11-19-2019 07:50 PM)Bcatbog Wrote:  It is all irrelevant. UC vs Memphis decides it all. Until then - it is all speculation.

I think it's actually very relevant because I don't believe UC vs Memphis decides it all - not if we're talking about NY6 which should be everyone's ultimate goal... the number next to Memphis and UC doesn't matter much in general terms but it does when talking about relation to where they sit compared to Boise State.

Boise needed OT to beat Wyoming and they end up gaining a spot to further breathe down our necks (with not nearly as great of SOS to boot) meanwhile UC loses two spots after hitting a game winning FG.. It all sets up for the AAC to lose the NY6 to Boise unless one of UC, Memphis, or SMU win out. Meanwhile most computers say UC should have ~4 spots between Boise. I'm all for dropping the opinions of humans and their biases and going back to a pool of computers.

(11-20-2019 10:36 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(11-19-2019 07:50 PM)Bcatbog Wrote:  It is all irrelevant. UC vs Memphis decides it all. Until then - it is all speculation.

I think it's actually very relevant because I don't believe UC vs Memphis decides it all - not if we're talking about NY6 which should be everyone's ultimate goal... the number next to Memphis and UC doesn't matter much in general terms but it does when talking about relation to where they sit compared to Boise State.

Boise needed OT to beat Wyoming and they end up gaining a spot to further breathe down our necks (with not nearly as great of SOS to boot) meanwhile UC loses two spots after hitting a game winning FG.. It all sets up for the AAC to lose the NY6 to Boise unless one of UC, Memphis, or SMU win out. Meanwhile most computers say UC should have ~4 spots between Boise. I'm all for dropping the opinions of humans and their biases and going back to a pool of computers.

Agreed 100%. The powers that be will never go back to that though because they like being able to create made-for-TV match-ups based on whatever criteria they see fit.

(11-20-2019 11:05 AM)robertfoshizzle Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 10:36 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(11-19-2019 07:50 PM)Bcatbog Wrote:  It is all irrelevant. UC vs Memphis decides it all. Until then - it is all speculation.

I think it's actually very relevant because I don't believe UC vs Memphis decides it all - not if we're talking about NY6 which should be everyone's ultimate goal... the number next to Memphis and UC doesn't matter much in general terms but it does when talking about relation to where they sit compared to Boise State.

Boise needed OT to beat Wyoming and they end up gaining a spot to further breathe down our necks (with not nearly as great of SOS to boot) meanwhile UC loses two spots after hitting a game winning FG.. It all sets up for the AAC to lose the NY6 to Boise unless one of UC, Memphis, or SMU win out. Meanwhile most computers say UC should have ~4 spots between Boise. I'm all for dropping the opinions of humans and their biases and going back to a pool of computers.

Agreed 100%. The powers that be will never go back to that though because they like being able to create made-for-TV match-ups based on whatever criteria they see fit.

Yup.

If they stay at 4 teams, they should just use the BCS system.

If they expand to 8 teams, the five P5 conference champs gets an auto-bid if in BCS system top 25. Top BCS system G5 team gets a spot if in top 25. Any open spots are filled by next highest team in BCS system. Seeding is strictly based off of your rank in the BCS system.

Boise gets that underdog street cred that never seems to bestow to UC. Seriously, has anyone on ESPN ever talked about UC FB or BB being the loveable underdog? Instead we often get the "know your role" lecture...

UC vs Memphis still decides it all, as long as the winner also wins the conference championship game. If not, the AAC is in trouble.

(11-20-2019 11:20 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  UC vs Memphis still decides it all, as long as the winner also wins the conference championship game. If not, the AAC is in trouble.

Ehhh, I don't think that's exactly true. If Cincinnati wins, then loses to SMU in the CCG, then SMU would rightfully take the space.

(11-20-2019 11:20 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  UC vs Memphis still decides it all, as long as the winner also wins the conference championship game. If not, the AAC is in trouble.

That's the problem. A 1-1 split, what I'm thinking is a very likely outcome, against a seemingly top 20 team should still leave the AAC respectably above Boise State (especially in Memphis' case, beating multiple top 25 teams). But with where the committee has Boise positioned, they'll jump either UC or Memphis unless either school wins both.

(11-20-2019 11:30 AM)dubcat14 Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 11:20 AM)Bruce Monnin Wrote:  UC vs Memphis still decides it all, as long as the winner also wins the conference championship game. If not, the AAC is in trouble.

That's the problem. A 1-1 split, what I'm thinking is a very likely outcome, against a seemingly top 20 team should still leave the AAC respectably above Boise State (especially in Memphis' case, beating multiple top 25 teams). But with where the committee has Boise positioned, they'll jump either UC or Memphis unless either school wins both.

Boise probably loses at Utah State this weekend.

Breaking News: Brand-Bias is alive and well within college football rankings

The reason certain programs continue to get the benefit of the doubt is that they have earned it - over a long period of time.

If we keep winning close games we are going to be ranked behind a couple 6-6 teams. lol

(11-20-2019 01:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If we keep winning close games we are going to be ranked behind a couple 6-6 teams. lol

And we'll be ranked behind Army because they earned it from their performance back in the 1940's.

(11-20-2019 01:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If we keep winning close games we are going to be ranked behind a couple 6-6 teams. lol

Eh. If we win 3 more close games we'll get a ton of credit for it. It's not that the games were close, it's that the games were close to Tulsa, ECU and USF.

(11-20-2019 01:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If we keep winning close games we are going to be ranked behind a couple 6-6 teams. lol

You are not that far off. Last year we finished unranked at 11-2 and there were four 4-loss teams in the CFP final Top 25.

(11-20-2019 02:05 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(11-20-2019 01:22 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  If we keep winning close games we are going to be ranked behind a couple 6-6 teams. lol

You are not that far off. Last year we finished unranked at 11-2 and there were four 4-loss teams in the CFP final Top 25.

-AP #24 (5 loss NW was 21)
Does Coaches or Playoff poll do a post bowl ranking?

There are I think 64 P5 teams. I strongly believe we are better than at least half of them. Given their resources we could be top 20 virtually every year.