I don't think we need to let any team get poached.... I would like to add Southern Miss to get us to 12 for football, but that might get to odd number in basketball and other sports. Would that be a problem?

(11-13-2019 11:16 AM)App State Nation Wrote:  Hell, with enough AAC chaos (e.g. Cincinnati losing two and Temple or UCF winning out) and a MWC Champ not named Boise, even Louisiana still has a shot at this if they win out.

I ain't seen a fat lady yet.



PS: How cool would an SBC title game with two ranked teams be?

How is Louisiana only receiving 1 point in the Coaches Poll and no votes in the AP Poll? Louisana Tech's best win is FIU and they only defeated the mighty Grambling by...gasp...6 points.

Meanwhile Louisiana's two losses have come to Mississippi State in Week 1 and a ranked App State, both by 10.

(11-14-2019 10:39 AM)kevinwmsn Wrote:  I don't think we need to let any team get poached.... I would like to add Southern Miss to get us to 12 for football, but that might get to odd number in basketball and other sports. Would that be a problem?

Southern Miss and Marshall, as legacy programs, would be solid additions. They fit the footprint and would back in conference with Georgia Southern and App State, leaving a conference with no natural rivalry's to speak of.

(11-13-2019 04:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:00 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  5) Memphis or Ciny winner can't win the AAC ... the Tigers and Bearcats play each other to end the regular season. So 1 will be eliminated. But this is where is gets interesting ... If Cincy losses, they will still play in the AAC Championship game. Does a two loss Cincy AAC champ get in over 1 loss APP? Does a two loss SMU or Navy AAC Champ get ahead of 1 loss APP? What is Memphis wins than losses to Cincy in the Championship game? Those are the big questions.

Is this going to happen? Probably not
Is there a decent possibility? Absolutely
Thoughts

Actually the Memphis-Cincy loser CAN win the AAC.

If Cincy beats Temple, they clinch AAC East because even if they lose to USF and Memphis and UCF wins out, Bearcats beat UCF head-to-head and win the tiebreaker.

If Cincinnati beats USF and Temple and lose to Memphis odds are Memphis and Cincinnati turn right around and play again. If that happens and Memphis beats USF and Houston, then Memphis vs. Cincy rematch is probably winner takes all.

Probably true if Cincy beats Memphis in that scenario and then Memphis wins the rematch.

Need each to have a how'd that happen upset like UCF losing to Tulsa.

Right, but if the loser wins the AAC, that means a two loss Champion. Which brings up the debate: does a two loss AAC Champ beat a ranked 1 loss SunBelt Champ?

(11-13-2019 07:33 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:00 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  That's obvious, but need convincing wins over two good teams in GSU and Troy, plus beating a very good UL team.

I have officially entered a parallel universe.

I mean, GSU is bowl eligible ...

(11-14-2019 11:55 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 04:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:00 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  5) Memphis or Ciny winner can't win the AAC ... the Tigers and Bearcats play each other to end the regular season. So 1 will be eliminated. But this is where is gets interesting ... If Cincy losses, they will still play in the AAC Championship game. Does a two loss Cincy AAC champ get in over 1 loss APP? Does a two loss SMU or Navy AAC Champ get ahead of 1 loss APP? What is Memphis wins than losses to Cincy in the Championship game? Those are the big questions.

Is this going to happen? Probably not
Is there a decent possibility? Absolutely
Thoughts

Actually the Memphis-Cincy loser CAN win the AAC.

If Cincy beats Temple, they clinch AAC East because even if they lose to USF and Memphis and UCF wins out, Bearcats beat UCF head-to-head and win the tiebreaker.

If Cincinnati beats USF and Temple and lose to Memphis odds are Memphis and Cincinnati turn right around and play again. If that happens and Memphis beats USF and Houston, then Memphis vs. Cincy rematch is probably winner takes all.

Probably true if Cincy beats Memphis in that scenario and then Memphis wins the rematch.

Need each to have a how'd that happen upset like UCF losing to Tulsa.

Right, but if the loser wins the AAC, that means a two loss Champion. Which brings up the debate: does a two loss AAC Champ beat a ranked 1 loss SunBelt Champ?

I think the 1 loss SunBelt would be the higher seed - but barely - our wins against 2 P5s help alot (even though they are struggling). If App does win out, including the CC game, we should get back to around 20? Would that be enough is the question.

(11-13-2019 07:33 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:00 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  That's obvious, but need convincing wins over two good teams in GSU and Troy, plus beating a very good UL team.

I have officially entered a parallel universe.

Maybe not.

We have someone on our board saying GSU and USA are equals this year....

GSU is only 5 games better cause their schedule is soooooo much easier than USAs.

(11-14-2019 12:00 PM)Goronic Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 11:55 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 04:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:00 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  5) Memphis or Ciny winner can't win the AAC ... the Tigers and Bearcats play each other to end the regular season. So 1 will be eliminated. But this is where is gets interesting ... If Cincy losses, they will still play in the AAC Championship game. Does a two loss Cincy AAC champ get in over 1 loss APP? Does a two loss SMU or Navy AAC Champ get ahead of 1 loss APP? What is Memphis wins than losses to Cincy in the Championship game? Those are the big questions.

Is this going to happen? Probably not
Is there a decent possibility? Absolutely
Thoughts

Actually the Memphis-Cincy loser CAN win the AAC.

If Cincy beats Temple, they clinch AAC East because even if they lose to USF and Memphis and UCF wins out, Bearcats beat UCF head-to-head and win the tiebreaker.

If Cincinnati beats USF and Temple and lose to Memphis odds are Memphis and Cincinnati turn right around and play again. If that happens and Memphis beats USF and Houston, then Memphis vs. Cincy rematch is probably winner takes all.

Probably true if Cincy beats Memphis in that scenario and then Memphis wins the rematch.

Need each to have a how'd that happen upset like UCF losing to Tulsa.

Right, but if the loser wins the AAC, that means a two loss Champion. Which brings up the debate: does a two loss AAC Champ beat a ranked 1 loss SunBelt Champ?

I think the 1 loss SunBelt would be the higher seed - but barely - our wins against 2 P5s help alot (even though they are struggling). If App does win out, including the CC game, we should get back to around 20? Would that be enough is the question.

If App had beaten GaSo but lost to one of UNC and South Carolina instead, I think the Mountaineers would be toast going up against 2 loss AAC, but the two P5 wins dress things up.

(11-14-2019 11:55 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 04:29 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:00 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  5) Memphis or Ciny winner can't win the AAC ... the Tigers and Bearcats play each other to end the regular season. So 1 will be eliminated. But this is where is gets interesting ... If Cincy losses, they will still play in the AAC Championship game. Does a two loss Cincy AAC champ get in over 1 loss APP? Does a two loss SMU or Navy AAC Champ get ahead of 1 loss APP? What is Memphis wins than losses to Cincy in the Championship game? Those are the big questions.

Is this going to happen? Probably not
Is there a decent possibility? Absolutely
Thoughts

Actually the Memphis-Cincy loser CAN win the AAC.

If Cincy beats Temple, they clinch AAC East because even if they lose to USF and Memphis and UCF wins out, Bearcats beat UCF head-to-head and win the tiebreaker.

If Cincinnati beats USF and Temple and lose to Memphis odds are Memphis and Cincinnati turn right around and play again. If that happens and Memphis beats USF and Houston, then Memphis vs. Cincy rematch is probably winner takes all.

Probably true if Cincy beats Memphis in that scenario and then Memphis wins the rematch.

Need each to have a how'd that happen upset like UCF losing to Tulsa.

Right, but if the loser wins the AAC, that means a two loss Champion. Which brings up the debate: does a two loss AAC Champ beat a ranked 1 loss SunBelt Champ?

When App's one loss is to a team that is on par with Temple while beating both UNC and USC, I think it warrants serious consideration. Also two wins against Louisiana who is rated quite high in most computer programs.

We feel the same about UNT ("Not Texas"). But they have pretensions of getting into a P5 or "P6" conference. Too bad, as they or LaTech could make pretty decent Slumbelt members.

(11-14-2019 12:06 PM)_x_ Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 07:33 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:00 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  That's obvious, but need convincing wins over two good teams in GSU and Troy, plus beating a very good UL team.

I have officially entered a parallel universe.

Maybe not.

We have someone on our board saying GSU and USA are equals this year....

GSU is only 5 games better cause their schedule is soooooo much easier than USAs.

(11-14-2019 11:57 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 07:33 PM)Pounce FTW Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:00 AM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  That's obvious, but need convincing wins over two good teams in GSU and Troy, plus beating a very good UL team.

I have officially entered a parallel universe.

I mean, GSU is bowl eligible ...

Go GAST! We'll be pulling for you hard down in "the Boro"!

(How's that for a parallel universe?)

(11-13-2019 10:41 AM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:27 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:25 AM)slycat Wrote:  Thanks GS for wrecking the SBC chances at getting a huge payday from App St. Rivalries are the best though. Wish we had one.

UTA seems like it's a possibility in the next decade. You would think TxSt, UL and stAte would be a triangle of rivalry hate eventually.

I don't want UTA to have football unless their admin is going to be all-in and pay the money that's necessary to have great facilities and great coaches. Their football budget needs to be close to the higher budget programs in the SBC.
We don't need a start-up to drag the conference down for a whole decade after all that's been accomplished thus far. Georgia State hurt the Sun Belt for a few years after they started up. Charlotte and UTSA have been hurting CUSA for a while now.

Y'all listen up. This fella is pretty smart for his age and is right on the money. The conference is in good shape now and getting better. We do not need a long term start up dragging us down. Let someone else do that to some other conference.

(11-13-2019 10:27 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  

(11-13-2019 10:25 AM)slycat Wrote:  Thanks GS for wrecking the SBC chances at getting a huge payday from App St. Rivalries are the best though. Wish we had one.

UTA seems like it's a possibility in the next decade. You would think TxSt, UL and stAte would be a triangle of rivalry hate eventually.

I hate Texas State in most every sport right now, especially when they ruined a potentially magical season in basketball a few years ago.

My biggest issue with UTA is I don't hate them....

Hard to call them a rival, I almost like them.

Alrighty, Step 1 is complete. A Navy loss with a convincing App victory. App should move up at least two spots coupled with the KState loss. Need another ranked G5 opponent to go down next week. We'll see what the rankings look like after tomorrow.

So, obviously App needs to win out, but here's three scenarios for the AAC.

1. Cincinnati beats Temple: Then you are guaranteed consecutive matchups between Cincinnati and Temple and you need them to split that pair of games.

2. Temple beats Cincinnati: If Temple beats Cincinnati it gets more complicated.
a. If Cincinnati beats Memphis, the AAC is out of the Access Bowl unless App or Boise loses again.
b. If Memphis beats Cincinnati, then Temple would win a 3-way tie breaker with UCF (according to the AAC board) or a 2-way tie with Cinci if UCF loses another game. It's Memphis versus Temple in the AAC CG.

IMO scenario 2b (A Memphis-Temple AAC CG) is the worst-case scenario for App.

Then there's Boise. IMO App should be ahead of them because they beat two bad P5 teams and Boise lost to a bad P5 team but whatever. They play both Utah State and Colorado State on the road and could potentially lose either game but then they play the winner of SDSU @ Hawaii.

Step 2 is accomplished: Another App victory with Navy victory over SMU.
Step 3 however may hurt ... Boise didn’t have a problem with Utah State.

So Here’s what’s left:
1) App gets wins over an improving Troy team and a very talented and hot UL team. No easy task.
2) Winner of Memphis/Cincy must lose the AAC championship.
3) Boise needs to get upset by CSU or MWC game.

Still a strong possibility, but the Boise win about ensure they win out I think. Memphis looks very good as well. Fingers crossed.

(11-24-2019 01:23 PM)CoachWillRob Wrote:  Step 2 is accomplished: Another App victory with Navy victory over SMU.
Step 3 however may hurt ... Boise didn’t have a problem with Utah State.

So Here’s what’s left:
1) App gets wins over an improving Troy team and a very talented and hot UL team. No easy task.
2) Winner of Memphis/Cincy must lose the AAC championship.
3) Boise needs to get upset by CSU or MWC game.

Still a strong possibility, but the Boise win about ensure they win out I think. Memphis looks very good as well. Fingers crossed.

Or you need Cincy to beat Memphis, Navy to beat Houston and then Navy win AAC

Then need a Boise loss.


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I dont think it's a mystery how you make the NY6 game. App would have done it by winning out. You cant lose to Georgia Southern then question can a sun belt team make it. I fully believe we would be the highest ranked G5 today if we were 11-0. We have 3 of the best wins between ourselves Memphis, Cincinnati and Boise (UNC, Louisiana, USC), but we also have what I would call tied with Boise for the worst loss. But Boise beat FSU and are THE big name in the G5. The system isnt fair for sure, but the sun belt provides a route if you take advantage.