(11-17-2019 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:10 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Oklahoma wins .... 34-31.

Actually a good result for the Big 12. Expect Baylor to drop very little while Oklahoma may rise a couple spots.

except now the only possible playoff participant scenario- Baylor undefeated- is gone..... Big 12 is pretty much eliminated right now.

OU's in good shape. Alabama is sitting #5 w/o a QB, almost no chance of a conference title and possibly the whole season w/o a win over a ranked team (Auburn will be right at the edge if Alabama beats them).

Yes, but those dancing on Alabama's grave right now are missing one thing - the threat of two SEC teams in the playoffs isn't LSU and Alabama, it's LSU and Georgia.

And thanks to Georgia beating Auburn, that threat is VERY much alive. If LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, Georgia is going to the playoffs, and unless LSU loses 50-0, they will be too, thanks to the Baylor loss.

And Georgia could very well beat LSU. LSU is a flawed team, their defense is bad, they gave up 400 yards on the *ground* to a 4-6 Ole Miss team yesterday.

The playoffs could very well be #1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU and #2 Clemson vs #3 Georgia, with PAC and Big 12 sidelined.

You missed the point. It was that if Alabama with their schedule could be sitting in #5, any other 1 loss team could be as well because the P5 1 loss teams all have better resumes (except now 1 loss Baylor).

The committee is going to be really hard pressed to pick Alabama over a 1 loss conference champ. It would totally have to be on the eyeball test and contradict everything they have ever said before (not that it would be the first time they have totally contradicted themselves).

Unless Ohio State loses twice, and either Utah or Oregon loses once and then beats the other one in the CCG, and Georgia loses to A&M and then beats L.S.U. badly, and Wisconsin beats Penn State in the B10 CCG, I just don't see a reasonable path for Alabama minus Tua to make it into the CFP.

So I feel relatively comfortable saying they are out this year. The only way the SEC gets two in is if Georgia barely wins against L.S.U. in the championship game. And even then it isn't a certainty, just a likelihood.

(11-17-2019 12:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  except now the only possible playoff participant scenario- Baylor undefeated- is gone..... Big 12 is pretty much eliminated right now.

OU's in good shape. Alabama is sitting #5 w/o a QB, almost no chance of a conference title and possibly the whole season w/o a win over a ranked team (Auburn will be right at the edge if Alabama beats them).

Yes, but those dancing on Alabama's grave right now are missing one thing - the threat of two SEC teams in the playoffs isn't LSU and Alabama, it's LSU and Georgia.

And thanks to Georgia beating Auburn, that threat is VERY much alive. If LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, Georgia is going to the playoffs, and unless LSU loses 50-0, they will be too, thanks to the Baylor loss.

And Georgia could very well beat LSU. LSU is a flawed team, their defense is bad, they gave up 400 yards on the *ground* to a 4-6 Ole Miss team yesterday.

The playoffs could very well be #1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU and #2 Clemson vs #3 Georgia, with PAC and Big 12 sidelined.

You missed the point. It was that if Alabama with their schedule could be sitting in #5, any other 1 loss team could be as well because the P5 1 loss teams all have better resumes (except now 1 loss Baylor).

The committee is going to be really hard pressed to pick Alabama over a 1 loss conference champ. It would totally have to be on the eyeball test and contradict everything they have ever said before (not that it would be the first time they have totally contradicted themselves).

Unless Ohio State loses twice, and either Utah or Oregon loses once and then beats the other one in the CCG, and Georgia loses to A&M and then beats L.S.U. badly, and Wisconsin beats Penn State in the B10 CCG, I just don't see a reasonable path for Alabama minus Tua to make it into the CFP.

So I feel relatively comfortable saying they are out this year. The only way the SEC gets two in is if Georgia barely wins against L.S.U. in the championship game. And even then it isn't a certainty, just a likelihood.

If Alabama beats Auburn going away giving the committee the comfort that Alabama minus Tua is still close to Alabama with Tua- I wouldn't be shocked to see Alabama up there. The Auburn game is crucial for Alabama.

(11-17-2019 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:10 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Oklahoma wins .... 34-31.

Actually a good result for the Big 12. Expect Baylor to drop very little while Oklahoma may rise a couple spots.

except now the only possible playoff participant scenario- Baylor undefeated- is gone..... Big 12 is pretty much eliminated right now.

OU's in good shape. Alabama is sitting #5 w/o a QB, almost no chance of a conference title and possibly the whole season w/o a win over a ranked team (Auburn will be right at the edge if Alabama beats them).

Yes, but those dancing on Alabama's grave right now are missing one thing - the threat of two SEC teams in the playoffs isn't LSU and Alabama, it's LSU and Georgia.

And thanks to Georgia beating Auburn, that threat is VERY much alive. If LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, Georgia is going to the playoffs, and unless LSU loses 50-0, they will be too, thanks to the Baylor loss.

And Georgia could very well beat LSU. LSU is a flawed team, their defense is bad, they gave up 400 yards on the *ground* to a 4-6 Ole Miss team yesterday.

The playoffs could very well be #1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU and #2 Clemson vs #3 Georgia, with PAC and Big 12 sidelined.

You missed the point. It was that if Alabama with their schedule could be sitting in #5, any other 1 loss team could be as well because the P5 1 loss teams all have better resumes (except now 1 loss Baylor).

The committee is going to be really hard pressed to pick Alabama over a 1 loss conference champ. It would totally have to be on the eyeball test and contradict everything they have ever said before (not that it would be the first time they have totally contradicted themselves).

I don't think i missed the point. A lot of focus here on Alabama making the playoffs when an LSU/Goergia duo is the bigger threat.

And the CFP hasn't really contradicted themselves. It has been consistent that among P5, record matters most in the end. E.g., the two times a non-champ got in, Ohio State in 16 and Alabama in 17, those teams had fewer losses than the P5 champs they beat out. Each year, there were two P5 champs with two losses, while OS and AL had one loss.

So that suggests that a one-loss Bama will only get in if there are two P5 champs with two losses.

(11-17-2019 12:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  except now the only possible playoff participant scenario- Baylor undefeated- is gone..... Big 12 is pretty much eliminated right now.

OU's in good shape. Alabama is sitting #5 w/o a QB, almost no chance of a conference title and possibly the whole season w/o a win over a ranked team (Auburn will be right at the edge if Alabama beats them).

Yes, but those dancing on Alabama's grave right now are missing one thing - the threat of two SEC teams in the playoffs isn't LSU and Alabama, it's LSU and Georgia.

And thanks to Georgia beating Auburn, that threat is VERY much alive. If LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, Georgia is going to the playoffs, and unless LSU loses 50-0, they will be too, thanks to the Baylor loss.

And Georgia could very well beat LSU. LSU is a flawed team, their defense is bad, they gave up 400 yards on the *ground* to a 4-6 Ole Miss team yesterday.

The playoffs could very well be #1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU and #2 Clemson vs #3 Georgia, with PAC and Big 12 sidelined.

You missed the point. It was that if Alabama with their schedule could be sitting in #5, any other 1 loss team could be as well because the P5 1 loss teams all have better resumes (except now 1 loss Baylor).

The committee is going to be really hard pressed to pick Alabama over a 1 loss conference champ. It would totally have to be on the eyeball test and contradict everything they have ever said before (not that it would be the first time they have totally contradicted themselves).

This isn't helping Oklahoma though. They need Oregon and Utah to both lose. That's what they're up against. Also, they need LSU to beat Georgia. And Ohio St to beat Penn St.

Oregon, Utah and OU are all about even. OU has a tougher remaining schedule than those two. Now it didn't help OU that the rest of the Big 12 is beating up on each other. If Texas and KSU both won yesterday it would look better for OU. Their wins would look a whole lot better than Utah or Oregon's wins. But at this point its mostly the eyeball test. OU hasn't done well the last 3 weeks on that, but there are 3 more weeks left.

LSU is the only 1 loss non champ that will beat out a 1 loss conference champ and that isn't certain.

Today's check-in on a spoiled fan base:

(11-17-2019 01:42 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Today's check-in on a spoiled fan base:

He'd be a Wuck out of Dater at Texas. But if he thought he could upstage a former assistant he might consider it. Herman and Mullen as OC made Urban at Florida and Ohio State and without them he moved on from both. He'd have a deuce hard time competing against Mullen if he went to F.S.U. so that's not happening. Relieving Herman however might appeal to his perverse ego, so that's worth watching. IMO, unless he has a great OC he can't succeed. IMO, all Texas needs is a great DC to work with Herman. That would be money much better spent than hiring Urban. A great DC and another year or two to build depth and the Horns will be in fine shape.

(11-17-2019 01:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 12:16 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 11:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-17-2019 10:15 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 11:18 PM)bullet Wrote:  OU's in good shape. Alabama is sitting #5 w/o a QB, almost no chance of a conference title and possibly the whole season w/o a win over a ranked team (Auburn will be right at the edge if Alabama beats them).

Yes, but those dancing on Alabama's grave right now are missing one thing - the threat of two SEC teams in the playoffs isn't LSU and Alabama, it's LSU and Georgia.

And thanks to Georgia beating Auburn, that threat is VERY much alive. If LSU loses to Georgia in the SEC title game, Georgia is going to the playoffs, and unless LSU loses 50-0, they will be too, thanks to the Baylor loss.

And Georgia could very well beat LSU. LSU is a flawed team, their defense is bad, they gave up 400 yards on the *ground* to a 4-6 Ole Miss team yesterday.

The playoffs could very well be #1 Ohio State vs #4 LSU and #2 Clemson vs #3 Georgia, with PAC and Big 12 sidelined.

You missed the point. It was that if Alabama with their schedule could be sitting in #5, any other 1 loss team could be as well because the P5 1 loss teams all have better resumes (except now 1 loss Baylor).

The committee is going to be really hard pressed to pick Alabama over a 1 loss conference champ. It would totally have to be on the eyeball test and contradict everything they have ever said before (not that it would be the first time they have totally contradicted themselves).

This isn't helping Oklahoma though. They need Oregon and Utah to both lose. That's what they're up against. Also, they need LSU to beat Georgia. And Ohio St to beat Penn St.

Oregon, Utah and OU are all about even. OU has a tougher remaining schedule than those two. Now it didn't help OU that the rest of the Big 12 is beating up on each other. If Texas and KSU both won yesterday it would look better for OU. Their wins would look a whole lot better than Utah or Oregon's wins. But at this point its mostly the eyeball test. OU hasn't done well the last 3 weeks on that, but there are 3 more weeks left.

LSU is the only 1 loss non champ that will beat out a 1 loss conference champ and that isn't certain.

OU's problem is that Oregon/Utah can play each other in the title game. And NOTHING OU has can match that(and no, not Baylor again).

Bo Pelini is 1-6 in conference play this year.

17-22 conference record in 5 years pending one more game.

(11-17-2019 07:09 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  Bo Pelini is 1-6 in conference play this year.

17-22 conference record in 5 years pending one more game.

That FCS title game appearance sure does look like a fluke now.