Update:
100% C0: LSU (68%)
100% L1: LSU (31%)
100% C0: Ohio St (86%)
100% L1: Ohio St (13%)
100% C0: Clemson (94%)
100% C0: Georgia (31%) +1%
70% C0: Oklahoma (58%) +3%
62% C0: Baylor (41%) +35%
30% C0: Wisconsin (13%) -37%
3% a0: Penn State (100%) =0%
<1% a0: Florida (100%) =0%
Tier 1: LSU and OSU have already clinched a playoff spot
Tier 2: Georgia and Clemson are in with wins
Tier 3: Iif Georgia OR Clemson lose) Oklahoma, then Wisconsin, then Baylor
Tier 4: (if Georgia AND Clemson lose) Big 12 Champ AND Wisconsin
Tier 5: If Wisconsin loses too, Penn State joins (or, once in 10,000 sims, Florida)
Wisconsin falls so far after this past week because while they'd have won the Championship tie-breaker over Alabama, they'd lose the #oflosses tie-breaker to the Big 12 Champ.
We haven't seen a front-runner lose in a CCG, and so we don't really know how secure LSU and OSU are. Should we treat the CCGs more as elimination games? The sim processes data for that as well while also pairing the top 2 at larges in a WCG where the winner is also playoff eligible (though may still finish behind 4 champions).