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Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
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NH/JMU Saxkow Offline
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Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
From an Overall Perspective...

A pretty brutal week where 15 teams were eliminated from playoff contention, yet no AQ spots have been clinched. Since 2010, only in 2013 and 2017 (and now 2019) have we made it to the final two weeks without at least one AQ being clinched. This does mean that next week will have a lot of important games for people to follow.

Presbyterian and Eastern Illinois both picked up their first wins of the season while unbeaten Dartmouth was able to give Princeton their first loss.

From a JMU Perspective...

A great week for JMU. First, the Committee releases their mid-season rankings and confirms that the Dukes are #2. Then JMU pounds the #10 team (UNH) by a score of 54-16 while Richmond loses to Villanova – giving JMU a 2-game lead in the CAA with 2 weeks left. Then, other top Committee teams Weber State and Sacramento State barely win their games while Central Arkansas and SDSU both lose. If JMU can win their final two games (Richmond and at an awful URI), then there is no question that they will get the #2 Seed and not face NDSU until Frisco (assuming NDSU wins-out). That would be a great game.

JMU will clinch the conference AQ with just one more win.

By the Numbers (108 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/27 – 92
11/3 – 81
11/10 – 66

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/27 – 79
11/3 – 74
11/10 – 61

Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/27 – 12
11/3 – 21
11/10 – 33

Since this is a 12-game season...Teams that have reached 7 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/27 – 3
11/3 – 8
11/10 – 16

Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

CAA (10 Teams Alive)
JMU – 9 wins
Villanova – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
Albany – 6 wins
Towson – 6 wins
– cannot win AQ
Stony Brook (1) – cannot win AQ
UNH (1)
Richmond (1)
Maine (1) – cannot win AQ
Delaware (0) – cannot win AQ
W&M (0) – cannot win AQ

Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)
Weber State – 8 wins
Montana – 8 wins
Montana State – 7 wins
Sacramento State – 6 wins

UC Davis (1) – cannot win AQ
EWU (0)

Big South (4 Teams Alive)
Monmouth – 8 wins
Kennesaw State – 7 wins

Campbell (1)
Charleston Southern

Independents (1 Team Alive – No AQ)
North Dakota (0)

MEAC (3 Teams Alive – No AQ)
Bethune-Cookman – 6 wins
NC A&T – 6 wins

SC State (1)

MVC (7 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 10 wins
SDSU – 7 wins
Illinois State – 7 wins
No. Iowa – 7 wins
SIU – 6 wins

Youngstown State (1) – cannot win AQ
South Dakota (0) – cannot win AQ

NEC (5 Teams Alive)
CCSU – 9 wins
Sacred Heart – 6 wins
Robert Morris – 6 wins

Duquesne (1)
StFU (0) – cannot win AQ

OVC (6 Teams Alive)
Austin Peay – 7 wins
Tenn.-Martin – 6 wins
Jacksonville State – 6 wins
– cannot win AQ
SE Missouri State – 6 wins
EKU (1)
Tenn. Tech (1)

Patriot League (7 Teams Alive)
Holy Cross (1)
Lehigh (0)
Georgetown (0)
Fordham
Lafayette
Colgate
Bucknell


Pioneer League (4 Teams Alive)
San Diego – 7 wins
Dayton – 6 wins

Drake (1)
Davidson (1)

SoCon (6 Teams Alive)
Furman – 7 wins
Citadel – 6 wins
Wofford – 6 wins

Chattanooga (1) – cannot win AQ
Samford (0) – cannot win AQ
Mercer (0) – cannot win AQ

Southland (7 Teams Alive)
Central Ark – 7 wins
McNeese State – 6 wins
Nicholls State – 6 wins
SE Louisiana – 6 wins

Sam Houston State (1)
Incarnate Word (1) – cannot win AQ
Abilene Christian (0) – cannot win AQ


Must Win Out to reach 6 wins:
W&M
Delaware
EWU
North Dakota
South Dakota
StFU
Lehigh
Georgetown
Samford
Mercer
Abilene Christian

Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this past week)
North Alabama (transitioning to I-AA until 2022)
Merrimack (transitioning to I-AA until 2023)
FAMU (postseason ban for low APR)
Elon
URI
Northern Arizona
Idaho
Portland State
Northern Colorado

Idaho State
Cal Poly
Southern Utah
Gardner-Webb
Hampton

Presbyterian
NC Central
Howard
Norfolk State
Morgan State
Delaware State
Indiana State
W. Illinois
Missouri State
Bryant
Wagner
LIU
Murray State
Tenn. State
EIU
Marist
Stetson
Morehead State

Butler
Valparaiso
Jacksonville
VMI
ETSU
Western Carolina
Lamar
Houston Baptist

NW State
Stephen F. Austin

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
NDSU
Dartmouth

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
LIU
Texas Southern

Conference Analysis

CAA – As mentioned above, the AQ is almost certainly sewn up by JMU, so the focus here will be on the At-Large chances for the other teams. Looking at the list of still-alive teams, we can first eliminate Stony Brook, W&M, and Delaware. If any of those three teams win-out, they’ll have .500 records in the CAA. You really need a winning conference record to be considered for an At-Large, so they’re done. That still leaves 6 more teams to look at: Albany, UNH, Richmond, Villanova, Towson, and Maine. Albany and UNH are both in the position of having to win both of their final two games. If Albany does that, they will be at 8-4 and 6-2 in the CAA with some ok, but not great, wins. If UNH wins out, then they will finish at 7-4 with some better wins. Next week, UNH plays at Albany, so one team will get a big boost, while the loser is doomed. Richmond also must win out to be considered. Their final game is an easy game against W&M, but next week, they play JMU – which would easily cement their At-Large cred with an upset over the Dukes. Villanova was able to stop their freefall by beating the Ticks this past weekend. It gives them a good win and, with their final 2 games against LIU and Delaware, a very solid path to the playoffs. Two more wins will put them at 9-3 with a good resume for an At-Large. Likewise, Towson has two winnable games to end the season – against W&M and Elon – which would put them at 8-4. They have no real signature wins, but they also have no real bad losses. I think they would get in. Finally, there is Maine. They started the season 2-5, but two of those losses were to I-A teams (GSU and Liberty) and the other three were to playoff contenders that I just talked about (Towson, Villanova, and Richmond). If they beat URI and then UNH, they will finish at 7-5 (with 5 straight wins). I think this would get them in to the playoffs (at the expense of UNH). Overall, I would have 4 CAA teams in right now: JMU, Villanova, Towson, and one out of UNH/Albany/Maine. (This assumes JMU beats Richmond and Villanova and Towson win their games.)

Big Sky – Weber State and Sacramento State both barely won their games to stay in the AQ race. Both of those teams were losing with less than three minutes left in the 4th quarter and came back to win. Sacramento even needed a TD, onside kick, and then another TD in the final 100 seconds to pull it out. Weber’s win means that they can clinch the AQ next week with a win over Montana. However, their argument that they deserve the #2 Seed over JMU is gone (unless JMU loses). Sacramento still needs one more win to get an At-Large spot (they just reached 6 wins), but they have prett yeasy path to reach that goal (against Idaho and UC Davis). Elsewhere, Montana and Montana State easily won their games this past weekend. Montana has 8 wins now, but the best win they have right now is over Monmouth. However, their final two games are against Weber and Montana State – which means they can wipe out any criticism with at least one win. If they win both, then they could have the AQ – but that is not a lock since their loss is to Sacramento (which could mess with the tie-breaker scenarios). If Montana State can win one more, then they should get an At-Large. If they can win next week against UC Davis, then they can assure that they have no bad losses. I am thinking of all four of these teams (Weber, Sacramento, Montana, and Montana State) making the playoffs – with the AQ getting a good Seed.

Big South – Conference leader Monmouth was able to easily beat North Alabama (which does not count in the Big South standings). They play Campbell next week. If Monmouth wins, they will clinch the AQ. If they lose, we could have a three-way tie (Monmouth, Campbell, and Kennesaw State) heading into final weekend. They would all be 1-1 against each other (and 4-0 against other common opponents), so it would move on to various other tie breakers. We’ll wait until next week to see if it is worth it to worry about this, though. Now, can any of these teams get in as an At-Large? It is possible for one team, but it depends on the scenario. With Campbell, they must win-out. A loss means they will likely be a 3rd place Big South team – which will eliminate them. If they can finish in a tie for first, then it does mean they picked up a win over Monmouth. I would be surprised if they can get in that situation, though. For Monmouth, they would have to lose next week at Campbell. A win in the final week would put them at 9-3 with the losses being to Troy (I-A), Montana, and a playoff contending Campbell. I could see them getting an At-Large in that scenario. For Kennesaw (assuming they win-out), I think it will come down to what happens in the Monmouth/Campbell game. If Monmouth wins, then Kennesaw can say they only lost to Kent State (I-A) and Monmouth (Big South Champion). If Monmouth loses, then that blowout loss to them looks even worse. No team should be guaranteed an At-Large, but they could be in the conversation.

Independents – North Dakota cam very close to knocking off Weber State, but they could hold their 4th quarter lead. Now they must win their final two games to reach 6 wins. They only play 11 games this year, so it is possible that a 6-5 record (with their wins over Montana State and Sam Houston) could be enough, but they will be clearly on the bubble. If they lose to either Northern Colorado or SUU, then they’re truly done.

MEAC – To make the playoffs, a MEAC team cannot win the conference title (which would send them to the HBCU “bowl” game) and they have to have a very strong resume. This year, there is an extra hitch...the conference leader, FAMU, is ineligible for the HBCU “bowl” this year due to low APR scores. So since FAMU is out, it looks like the 2nd best MEAC team will be the representative in that “bowl”. That means the highest team that would be eligible for a playoff At-Large spot would be the 3rd best MEAC team. With Bethune-Cookman and NC A&T both losing this weekend, the door closes on the MEAC having a playoff team.

MVC – NDSU continues to roll over the competition. It is somewhat surprising that they haven’t clinched the AQ yet, but if they beat South Dakota next week (which they should), then they will have it. SDSU now looks like they could be in trouble. They lost their QB in the NDSU game and while they were able to take care of Missouri State the next week with their back-up QB, that was against a bad team. This past weekend, they had to face a much stronger opponent in Illinois State and they lost. Now they will face another strong team in UNI. Another loss would likely put them in the situation of having to win in the final week (at South Dakota) to make the playoffs. Two losses will probably eliminate them. UNI and Illinois State both won this past weekend, putting both of them in a good position for At-Large spots. UNI has the weakened SDSU and then the terrible Western Illinois. Illinois State has the terrible Missouri State and then the bad Youngstown State. Both teams should be in with one more win. Southern Illinois is really the final contender here. They have now won four games in a row to put them at 6-4, but those four wins were against some bad teams. However, the other two wins they have are good ones – UMass and UT-Martin. They should pick up win number 7 next week against Western Illinois. Getting win number 8 will be much tougher – against NDSU. I do think 7 wins (with a I-A win) will be enough. I do expect four teams from the MVC to make it, with it being possible for five.

NEC – This past weekend, Robert Morris took a big step towards settling the NEC by beating up Duquesne. This weekend, they’ll play the other first place team – CCSU. If Robert Morris wins, they clinch the AQ. If CCSU wins, then they’ll have to get through Duquesne in the final week. It is possible that we could have a 3-way tie with all teams being 1-1 against each other. Just like in the Big South, we’ll check-in in a week to see if we need to see what the next tie-breakers are.

OVC – Three of the four OVC games this weekend had big playoff implications. The biggest was Austin Peay beating UT-Martin. They are now in control of the AQ since they have already beaten the other team at the top of the OVC, SEMO. All Austin Peay has to do is beat two bad teams in Murray State and EIU...but bad teams have been the curse of Austin Peay this year. Amazingly, Austin Peay’s three losses this year have been to Central Arkansas (understandable), ETSU (0-8 against other D1 teams), and Tennessee State (1-8 against other D1 teams). They can’t afford to play down to their opponent if they want to make the playoffs. SEMO plays the same two final opponents as Austin Peay, so they’ll be ready to take the AQ if Austin Peay falters. Even if they don’t get the AQ, two more wins would put them at 9-3 with those losses to Austin Peay, Montana State, and I-A Missouri. That’s a solid At-Large resume which should get them in. (Conversely, Austin Peay’s bad losses could torpedo that team if they lose one more.) UT-Martin has now lost 2 of their last 3 games to really hurt their AQ chances. They should win their seventh game next week against a terrible Tennessee State team, but that is likely to be where their win total ends as they play I-A Kentucky in the final week. So if they do finish at 7-5, they’ll be on the bubble with some ok wins (Jacksonville State, EKU) and no bad losses (I-A Florida, I-A Kentucky, SEMO, Austin Peay, and SIU). Definitely a good chance if the Committee gets to the 7-win teams. After that, you get to the teams who have at least 3 OVC losses – which I don’t think have a chance for an At-Large.

Patriot – You want parity in a conference? Look no further than the Patriot – where all teams are still in play for the AQ. In fact, this past weekend all three Patriot games featured a team that could still reach 6 wins versus a team that was already eliminated from the At-Large race. All three underdogs won. The conference leader is now Lafayette – who began the season 0-7 but has now won three straight. Fortunately, this is not a conference where a team will “steal” a spot – forcing the Committee to use an At-Large spot on the Patriot League. There are no teams in the Patriot who currently have a winning D1 record, so feel free to root for chaos here.

Pioneer – San Diego is acting like the NDSU of the Pioneer as they crush Stetson 51-7. How similar is this to NDSU in the MVC? NDSU has outscored their MVC opponents by 170 points in conference games...San Diego has outscored their Pioneer opponents by 167 points in conference games. They have now not lost a Pioneer game since October 10th….2015. They will clinch the AQ next week if they can beat Morehead State.

SoCon – The AQ is still up for grabs here, but it could be decided next week when Furman visits Wofford and Citadel goes to Chatty. If Furman wins, they get the AQ (no matter what happens in the other game). If Wofford wins and Chatty wins, Wofford gets the AQ. But if Wofford and Citadel both win, then we have to wait until they face each other in the final week. There is no way I can see Chatty getting the AQ. They have already lost to both Furman and Wofford, so they lose all tie-breakers involving them. As for At-Large chances for all of these teams...Chatty could finish at 7-5, but their best win would be over Citadel in that case. Their loss to Jacksonville State is also looking worse with each passing week. I don’t see them getting in. Depending on what happens with Furman/Wofford, Citadel would win the AQ if Wofford wins next week and then Citadel wins their final two games. If Furman wins that first week but Citadel still wins both games, then they go on the bubble with 8 wins – including a win over I-A Georgia Tech – but also some bad losses (Elon, VMI, Samford). I think they get in with two more wins, could be one of the last teams in with one more loss, and will be out with two losses. The same is true for Wofford. That brings us to Furman. None of the teams they have beaten have a winning record. With their final game being against an NAIA team, if they lose to Wofford next week (which means they lose the AQ), they will finish with only 7 non-impressive wins. They would need a lot of help to overcome that.

Southland – Everyone was waiting for Central Arkansas to lose and it happened this past weekend when SELA beat them 34-0. We now have a four-way tie for first place with two weeks left. Central Arkansas, SELA, Nicholls State, and Sam Houston all have 5-2 conference records, so everything is up in the air. In the final week, SELA and Nicholls will play each other, but for next week, all four teams will play teams that are not really in contention right now. SELA and Central Arkansas both have enough of a cushion where they could lose one game and still get an At-Large, but the others must win-out to have a shot.
11-11-2019 11:24 PM
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Dukie95 Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
(11-11-2019 11:24 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  You really need a winning conference record to be considered for an At-Large,

I don't think it's mathematically possible for the 10 middle teams go 4-4, but, I'd say it's likely a LOT will. I'm thinking the committee is going to have to consider someone with a .500 record from the CAA, but will have to be one with a stellar OOC slate.
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2019 12:18 PM by Dukie95.)
11-12-2019 12:10 PM
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Wear Purple Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
(11-12-2019 12:10 PM)Dukie95 Wrote:  
(11-11-2019 11:24 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  You really need a winning conference record to be considered for an At-Large,

I don't think it's mathematically possible for the 10 middle teams go 4-4, but, I'd say it's likely a LOT will. I'm thinking the committee is going to have to consider someone with a .500 record from the CAA, but will have to be one with a stellar OOC slate.

+1

Albany really caught a break in that they didn't have us on the schedule. In these days of no round robin schedules like we used to have 20+ years ago in a lot of conferences the committees really have to look at who you played in conference and who you avoided (compared to other members).

A lot has been made about this in recent years with the March Madness committees with these oversized monstrosities of conferences like the ACC, for example. That is, 2 teams side-by-side in consideration for an at large bid might have 8-10 vs 10-8 conference records, but the 8-10 team had to play 4 or 5 more games against the elite upper third of the conference. (this year, moving to 20 conference hoops games for MBB in that conference helps a little)

Would Albany have another CAA loss if they had to face us like the others have? Likely. Not guaranteed, but likely.
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2019 01:30 PM by Wear Purple.)
11-12-2019 01:28 PM
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BDKJMU Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
(11-12-2019 12:10 PM)Dukie95 Wrote:  
(11-11-2019 11:24 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  You really need a winning conference record to be considered for an At-Large,

I don't think it's mathematically possible for the 10 middle teams go 4-4, but, I'd say it's likely a LOT will. I'm thinking the committee is going to have to consider someone with a .500 record from the CAA, but will have to be one with a stellar OOC slate.
There's not going to be a CAA team that really fits that bill. VU is likely the only decent chance 4-4 CAA team to get an At large. Weak OOC slate, but 8 wins.

If TU finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 7-5, with a SLIM chance to get a bid. Decent OOC slate (did beat Citadel OOC). They wouldn't have a quality win unless The Citadel or Maine made it.

If SBU finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 7-5, but with a weak OOC slate. Would have a quality win over VU, and slim chance Albany, in the unlikely event SBU beat Albany, and then Albany still made it.

Forget about any of the below. If:
-Albany finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 6-6
-Maine finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 6-6
-UD finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 6-6.
-W&M finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 6-6.
-UNH finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 5-6.
-Elon finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 5-6.
-RU finished 4-4 CAA they'd finish 5-7.

Updated CAA Standings
1. JMU 9-1/6-0
2. UNH 5-4/4-2 (@ Albany, Maine) (only 11 games)
— Albany 6-4/4-2 (UNH, @ SBU)
— RU 5-5/4-2 (@ JMU, W&M)
5. VU 7-3/4-3 (Long Island U, UD) (yes, somehow VU finishes with 3 straight games at home).
6. TU 6-4/3-3 (@ W&M, Elon)
-- Maine 5-5/3-3 (URI, @ UNH)

Eliminated from playoff contention:
8. SBU 5-5/2-4
— Elon 4-6/3-4 (only 11 games)
-- UD 4–6/2-4
— W&M 4-6/2-4
12. URI 2-8/0-6

My guess is it will be like UNH said: JMU, VU, TU, and 1 of 3 among UNH/Albany/Maine.
(This post was last modified: 11-13-2019 11:21 AM by BDKJMU.)
11-12-2019 05:32 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
(11-11-2019 11:24 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  MVC – NDSU continues to roll over the competition. It is somewhat surprising that they haven’t clinched the AQ yet, but if they beat South Dakota next week (which they should), then they will have it. SDSU now looks like they could be in trouble. They lost their QB in the NDSU game and while they were able to take care of Missouri State the next week with their back-up QB, that was against a bad team. This past weekend, they had to face a much stronger opponent in Illinois State and they lost. Now they will face another strong team in UNI. Another loss would likely put them in the situation of having to win in the final week (at South Dakota) to make the playoffs. Two losses will probably eliminate them. UNI and Illinois State both won this past weekend, putting both of them in a good position for At-Large spots. UNI has the weakened SDSU and then the terrible Western Illinois. Illinois State has the terrible Missouri State and then the bad Youngstown State. Both teams should be in with one more win. Southern Illinois is really the final contender here. They have now won four games in a row to put them at 6-4, but those four wins were against some bad teams. However, the other two wins they have are good ones – UMass and UT-Martin. They should pick up win number 7 next week against Western Illinois. Getting win number 8 will be much tougher – against NDSU. I do think 7 wins (with a I-A win) will be enough. I do expect four teams from the MVC to make it, with it being possible for five.
UMass is FBS, but they're 230th of 256 in the Sagarin (about 10th percentile), and below every CAA, MVC, and Big Sky team.
11-13-2019 10:33 AM
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ShadyP Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
Once again a great breakdown....thank yo for taking the time to put this together each week.
11-13-2019 10:52 AM
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AssyrianDuke Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
(11-13-2019 10:33 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(11-11-2019 11:24 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  MVC – NDSU continues to roll over the competition. It is somewhat surprising that they haven’t clinched the AQ yet, but if they beat South Dakota next week (which they should), then they will have it. SDSU now looks like they could be in trouble. They lost their QB in the NDSU game and while they were able to take care of Missouri State the next week with their back-up QB, that was against a bad team. This past weekend, they had to face a much stronger opponent in Illinois State and they lost. Now they will face another strong team in UNI. Another loss would likely put them in the situation of having to win in the final week (at South Dakota) to make the playoffs. Two losses will probably eliminate them. UNI and Illinois State both won this past weekend, putting both of them in a good position for At-Large spots. UNI has the weakened SDSU and then the terrible Western Illinois. Illinois State has the terrible Missouri State and then the bad Youngstown State. Both teams should be in with one more win. Southern Illinois is really the final contender here. They have now won four games in a row to put them at 6-4, but those four wins were against some bad teams. However, the other two wins they have are good ones – UMass and UT-Martin. They should pick up win number 7 next week against Western Illinois. Getting win number 8 will be much tougher – against NDSU. I do think 7 wins (with a I-A win) will be enough. I do expect four teams from the MVC to make it, with it being possible for five.
UMass is FBS, but they're 230th of 256 in the Sagarin (about 10th percentile), and below every CAA, MVC, and Big Sky team.

While that is a good (and, I would argue, fair point) to most people an FBS win is an FBS win. I still argue that the difference between good FCS and bad FBS is negligible, but it is still considered an upset when it happens.
11-13-2019 11:02 AM
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ParentofJMUMRDs Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
Saxkow

Once again thanks for all your great work every week this time of year!!

Brian
11-13-2019 12:43 PM
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wmacson Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
(11-13-2019 12:43 PM)ParentofJMUMRDs Wrote:  Saxkow

Once again thanks for all your great work every week this time of year!!

Brian

I second that. I look forward to it each week!
11-13-2019 01:22 PM
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NH/JMU Saxkow Offline
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RE: Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/11/19
(11-13-2019 11:02 AM)AssyrianDuke Wrote:  
(11-13-2019 10:33 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(11-11-2019 11:24 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  MVC – NDSU continues to roll over the competition. It is somewhat surprising that they haven’t clinched the AQ yet, but if they beat South Dakota next week (which they should), then they will have it. SDSU now looks like they could be in trouble. They lost their QB in the NDSU game and while they were able to take care of Missouri State the next week with their back-up QB, that was against a bad team. This past weekend, they had to face a much stronger opponent in Illinois State and they lost. Now they will face another strong team in UNI. Another loss would likely put them in the situation of having to win in the final week (at South Dakota) to make the playoffs. Two losses will probably eliminate them. UNI and Illinois State both won this past weekend, putting both of them in a good position for At-Large spots. UNI has the weakened SDSU and then the terrible Western Illinois. Illinois State has the terrible Missouri State and then the bad Youngstown State. Both teams should be in with one more win. Southern Illinois is really the final contender here. They have now won four games in a row to put them at 6-4, but those four wins were against some bad teams. However, the other two wins they have are good ones – UMass and UT-Martin. They should pick up win number 7 next week against Western Illinois. Getting win number 8 will be much tougher – against NDSU. I do think 7 wins (with a I-A win) will be enough. I do expect four teams from the MVC to make it, with it being possible for five.
UMass is FBS, but they're 230th of 256 in the Sagarin (about 10th percentile), and below every CAA, MVC, and Big Sky team.

While that is a good (and, I would argue, fair point) to most people an FBS win is an FBS win. I still argue that the difference between good FCS and bad FBS is negligible, but it is still considered an upset when it happens.

There is no question that UMass is a terrible I-A team and would be beaten by many top FCS teams. But that advantage of the extra 22 scholarships is what makes any I-A team losing to a I-AA team a noteworthy event. I would generally also say the same thing when a Pioneer team (like San Diego) beats a full-schollie team. It just shouldn't happen, but of course, it does.
11-13-2019 06:00 PM
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