(11-14-2019 09:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 09:04 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote:  Undefeated Baylor has two wins over ranked teams, half their conference is in the top 25, and they are being treated like a G5 team by the committee.

Stephen F. Austin
UTSA
Rice

The 2 best teams they've beaten are ranked 22 and 24.

I don't think it's a lock at all that they make the playoffs at 13-0.

1- As for the noncon it was a weak trio of non-P5 teams with an FCS team. And Bama played two non-P5 teams and an FCS too. So did LSU. So did Auburn. All four will play 9 P5 teams in the regular season prior to title games since the SEC only plays 8 league games.

2- Baylor has two ranked wins and won convincingly in each and did so on the road.

3- Add two wins over Oklahoma and one over Texas and that Baylor resume gets much deeper than it is right now. Also you omit ISU who’s a solid team and is someone nobody wants to draw in a bowl. 4 losses by 11 points to four pretty good teams.

If they win out they are in.

(11-14-2019 06:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 03:09 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I think it is a pointless discussion because of the strength of schedule they've already played, not the last 3. LSU with 4 top 10 wins is easily in over Baylor with 1 loss. Focusing the argument on Baylor's last 3 games is absurd. It's the whole schedule that is measured.

But it is moot. They simply aren't going to win out. And if they did it would cast aspersions on the strength rating of the Big 12 instead of bolster it.

FWIW, the Big 12 is rated as the best conference this year so far by most computers.

Also, I agree that it's probably a moot point because like you, I expect Baylor to lose to Oklahoma this weekend.

Still, if they win out, I expect they get in. I have maintained all along that the only way an undefeated P5 champ will ever miss the playoffs is if there are four other undefeated P5 champs, or at least three with also an undefeated Notre Dame.

And I'm not getting off that horse now, LOL.

Computers are biased by their programming. End of story. The Big 12 doesn't have a stellar team. They all have flaws. There isn't a complete team among them. As long as committees pick the entrants instead of a structure producing them we will be stuck with bias.

(11-14-2019 07:07 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 02:32 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 11:48 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 11:31 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 09:57 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  2011 was a classic case of "best team" vs "most deserving" team. Obviously, LSU belonged in the BCS title game. Regarding OK-State vs Alabama, I think 90% of the world would have bet on Alabama to beat Oklahoma State if they played. Alabama was the better team. But OK State deserved it more for winning the Big 12.

Thing is, computers and pollsters care more about "better" than "most deserving".

Alabama had their chance at home vs. LSU. It was unfair to make LSU beat them again. Oklahoma St. lost one game, on the road, the day after a plane crash killed a number of OSU student athletes and coaches. There was absolutely zero doubt Oklahoma St. was most deserving.

CFP looks at "best." But that means its not necessarily based on results on the field, but heavily on an eye test. Certainly most people would expect Alabama to beat Oklahoma St. that year, but I'm not so certain. And "most" people have been wrong regularly. Remember when Miami was going to beat Ohio St.? Remember when USC was the greatest team ever? And simply look at how often the higher seeded team has lost in the CFP.

I think that *within* the top 4 of the CFP, the rankings reflect 'deserving' more than 'better', and that's because it really doesn't matter where you are ranked in the top 4, it's all the same. For example, in 2017, when #1 Clemson played #4 Alabama in the CFP playoffs, Alabama was a 4-point favorite. So i don't think the committee ranks those four that way.

About 2011, yes, it was very bad luck for LSU to have to play Alabama twice, definite advantage to Alabama. Also, thanks to losing to LSU, Alabama got to skip the SEC championship game, which meant they avoided a tough game they could have lost AND got more rest than LSU leading to the BCS title game. It all worked out like a charm, a case where winning was losing.

For that reason, it wouldn't have bothered me if one of the polls had voted LSU #1 after the BCS title game loss anyway.

But that said, the system did work in putting the two best teams together. That's what it's supposed to do not make things fair for anyone, so to speak.

I'm not certain it did. Oklahoma St. was very good that year.
ULL 61-34
Arizona 37-14
at Tulsa 59-33
at #8 Texas A&M 30-29
Kansas 70-28
at #22 Texas 38-26
Missouri 45-24
Baylor 59-24
at #17 KSU 52-45
at Texas Tech 66-6
at Iowa St. 27-31 2OT
#10 Oklahoma 44-10
Fiesta bowl #4 Stanford 41-38 OT

And this discusses the plane crash the day before the Iowa St. game killing 4 coaches and boosters that left the OSU campus in a state of shock. It followed a similar crash 10 years earlier that killed 10 members and coaches of their basketball team.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...107722514/

OK State was indeed very good that year. 12-1, Big 12 and Fiesta Bowl champs.

But compared to Alabama.... first, Alabama obviously had a much better loss than Oklahoma State. You can't excuse a loss to a 6-6 team by referencing a plane crash. A plane crash that kills the women's hoops head coach and one of her assistant coaches is tragic in a way that far transcends football, but in the football realm, that's a bad loss. IIRC, Oklahoma State did not get off to a slow start in that game, they had a big lead at half-time.

Also, regarding wins, Alabama beat:

#23 Penn State
#12 Florida
#14 Arkansas
#24 Auburn

Comparable to the ranked teams that OK-State beat. And Alabama had no close games other than the loss to LSU. They beat those ranked teams by 16, 24, 28, and 28 points.

OK- State won its games vs ranked teams by 1, 12, 7, and 24 points.

Before the bowls, Alabama won every game it played, save for the loss to LSU, by at least 16 points. OK-State, not counting their loss to Iowa State, had three games won by less than that amount.

And in their bowl games, Alabama beat #1 LSU by 21 points while OK State needed overtime to beat #4 Stanford by 3 points.

Look, I agree, if the criteria was "more deserving", then it should have been OK State. They won their conference and Alabama didn't. But the criteria in place wasn't 'more deserving', it was 'better' as defined by the BCS formula. And let's face it: If Alabama and OK State were to have played, we both would have picked Alabama to win. I bet Alabama would have been a 10-point favorite over the Cowboys.

I would have been in a small minority, but I would have picked Oklahoma St. And I definitely would have picked them over LSU. I don't think the great defenses at LSU and Alabama would slow down Oklahoma St. enough and LSU didn't have the firepower on offense. Alabama may not have.

(11-14-2019 08:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  I would have been in a small minority, but I would have picked Oklahoma St. And I definitely would have picked them over LSU. I don't think the great defenses at LSU and Alabama would slow down Oklahoma St. enough and LSU didn't have the firepower on offense. Alabama may not have.

We'll never know, but looking at the talent on those teams, it doesn't look close. E.g., in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts, which basically encompass the drafts of players that were on the 2011 Oklahoma State team, there were five total OK-State NFL draft picks. Three were first-round draft picks - WR Justin Blackmon, QB Brandon Weedon, and DB Justin Gilbert. None of them made it in the NFL, none has played a single game since 2016. Collectively, all five guys have started a total of 48 NFL games.

In contrast, just one guy off the 2011 Alabama team, DB Mark Barron, has started 99 games in the NFL. He played for Pittsburgh just four days ago vs the Rams.

Another DB, Dre Kirkpatrick, has started 69 games in the NFL. He played last week for the Bengals.

LB D'Onta Hightower has started 84 games for the Patriots. He played last week vs the Ravens.

RB Trent Richardson is regarded as a big bust, he hasn't played since 2014, but he still started 37 games in the NFL.

DE Courtney Upshaw played 5 years in the NFL, starting 57 games.

NT Josh Champman started 15 games in the NFL.

And that's just the *2012* draft for Alabama. They had 9 more guys picked in 2013 and 8 more in 2014. Many of them have been successful in the NFL. No need to break that down.

I know, it's easy to see a guy like Weedon throwing the ball all over the field vs other Big 12 teams and think he could do the same vs Alabama, but Alabama had NFL players on their defense and OK-State didn't have them on their offense.

And Alabama's offense wasn't bad, they scored 35 or more points in 9 of their games. The only games they scored fewer than 24 points in were the two against LSU.

As for LSU, I get it, watching LSU score 9 points in one game and 0 points in another against Alabama could lead you to believe they had a bad offense. But, LSU scored *491 points* in games not against Alabama. Even with the zero points scored in the BCS title game, LSU averaged 36 points a game. In games against teams other than Alabama, they scored 42 points per game.

In contrast, Oklahoma State gave up 27 points per game. So to me, it's much more likely that LSU and Alabama would have scored a lot on OK-State than vice-versa.

FWIW, LSU had 6 guys taken in the 2012 draft, 9 in the 2013 draft, and 9 more in the 2014 draft. It's not a pretty picture compared to Oklahoma State.

(11-14-2019 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 08:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  I would have been in a small minority, but I would have picked Oklahoma St. And I definitely would have picked them over LSU. I don't think the great defenses at LSU and Alabama would slow down Oklahoma St. enough and LSU didn't have the firepower on offense. Alabama may not have.

We'll never know, but looking at the talent on those teams, it doesn't look close. E.g., in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts, which basically encompass the drafts of players that were on the 2011 Oklahoma State team, there were five total OK-State NFL draft picks. Three were first-round draft picks - WR Justin Blackmon, QB Brandon Weedon, and DB Justin Gilbert. None of them made it in the NFL, none has played a single game since 2016. Collectively, all five guys have started a total of 48 NFL games.

In contrast, just one guy off the 2011 Alabama team, DB Mark Barron, has started 99 games in the NFL. He played for Pittsburgh just four days ago vs the Rams.

Another DB, Dre Kirkpatrick, has started 69 games in the NFL. He played last week for the Bengals.

LB D'Onta Hightower has started 84 games for the Patriots. He played last week vs the Ravens.

RB Trent Richardson is regarded as a big bust, he hasn't played since 2014, but he still started 37 games in the NFL.

DE Courtney Upshaw played 5 years in the NFL, starting 57 games.

NT Josh Champman started 15 games in the NFL.

And that's just the *2012* draft for Alabama. They had 9 more guys picked in 2013 and 8 more in 2014. Many of them have been successful in the NFL. No need to break that down.

I know, it's easy to see a guy like Weedon throwing the ball all over the field vs other Big 12 teams and think he could do the same vs Alabama, but Alabama had NFL players on their defense and OK-State didn't have them on their offense.

And Alabama's offense wasn't bad, they scored 35 or more points in 9 of their games. The only games they scored fewer than 24 points in were the two against LSU.

As for LSU, I get it, watching LSU score 9 points in one game and 0 points in another against Alabama could lead you to believe they had a bad offense. But, LSU scored *491 points* in games not against Alabama. Even with the zero points scored in the BCS title game, LSU averaged 36 points a game. In games against teams other than Alabama, they scored 42 points per game.

In contrast, Oklahoma State gave up 27 points per game. So to me, it's much more likely that LSU and Alabama would have scored a lot on OK-State than vice-versa.

FWIW, LSU had 6 guys taken in the 2012 draft, 9 in the 2013 draft, and 9 more in the 2014 draft. It's not a pretty picture compared to Oklahoma State.

LSU's QB wouldn't have started for a lot of FCS teams. Their offense could definitely be stopped. In a high scoring game LSU loses.

There is no doubt LSU and Alabama had more overall talent. But having better NFL players doesn't make for a better college team. Otherwise Gary Patterson and Bill Snyder wouldn't have broken .500 that often.

(11-14-2019 11:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 08:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  I would have been in a small minority, but I would have picked Oklahoma St. And I definitely would have picked them over LSU. I don't think the great defenses at LSU and Alabama would slow down Oklahoma St. enough and LSU didn't have the firepower on offense. Alabama may not have.

We'll never know, but looking at the talent on those teams, it doesn't look close. E.g., in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts, which basically encompass the drafts of players that were on the 2011 Oklahoma State team, there were five total OK-State NFL draft picks. Three were first-round draft picks - WR Justin Blackmon, QB Brandon Weedon, and DB Justin Gilbert. None of them made it in the NFL, none has played a single game since 2016. Collectively, all five guys have started a total of 48 NFL games.

In contrast, just one guy off the 2011 Alabama team, DB Mark Barron, has started 99 games in the NFL. He played for Pittsburgh just four days ago vs the Rams.

Another DB, Dre Kirkpatrick, has started 69 games in the NFL. He played last week for the Bengals.

LB D'Onta Hightower has started 84 games for the Patriots. He played last week vs the Ravens.

RB Trent Richardson is regarded as a big bust, he hasn't played since 2014, but he still started 37 games in the NFL.

DE Courtney Upshaw played 5 years in the NFL, starting 57 games.

NT Josh Champman started 15 games in the NFL.

And that's just the *2012* draft for Alabama. They had 9 more guys picked in 2013 and 8 more in 2014. Many of them have been successful in the NFL. No need to break that down.

I know, it's easy to see a guy like Weedon throwing the ball all over the field vs other Big 12 teams and think he could do the same vs Alabama, but Alabama had NFL players on their defense and OK-State didn't have them on their offense.

And Alabama's offense wasn't bad, they scored 35 or more points in 9 of their games. The only games they scored fewer than 24 points in were the two against LSU.

As for LSU, I get it, watching LSU score 9 points in one game and 0 points in another against Alabama could lead you to believe they had a bad offense. But, LSU scored *491 points* in games not against Alabama. Even with the zero points scored in the BCS title game, LSU averaged 36 points a game. In games against teams other than Alabama, they scored 42 points per game.

In contrast, Oklahoma State gave up 27 points per game. So to me, it's much more likely that LSU and Alabama would have scored a lot on OK-State than vice-versa.

FWIW, LSU had 6 guys taken in the 2012 draft, 9 in the 2013 draft, and 9 more in the 2014 draft. It's not a pretty picture compared to Oklahoma State.

LSU's QB wouldn't have started for a lot of FCS teams. Their offense could definitely be stopped. In a high scoring game LSU loses.

There is no doubt LSU and Alabama had more overall talent. But having better NFL players doesn't make for a better college team. Otherwise Gary Patterson and Bill Snyder wouldn't have broken .500 that often.

But Oklahoma St wouldn't have been able to make it a high scoring game... LSU had a real defense... Honey Badger wouldn't have cared.

LSU would have been able to run it right down Oklahoma St's throats. Stanford gained almost 250 yards vs them. LSU averaged for the season 5 yards per rush....

(11-14-2019 11:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 08:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  I would have been in a small minority, but I would have picked Oklahoma St. And I definitely would have picked them over LSU. I don't think the great defenses at LSU and Alabama would slow down Oklahoma St. enough and LSU didn't have the firepower on offense. Alabama may not have.

We'll never know, but looking at the talent on those teams, it doesn't look close. E.g., in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts, which basically encompass the drafts of players that were on the 2011 Oklahoma State team, there were five total OK-State NFL draft picks. Three were first-round draft picks - WR Justin Blackmon, QB Brandon Weedon, and DB Justin Gilbert. None of them made it in the NFL, none has played a single game since 2016. Collectively, all five guys have started a total of 48 NFL games.

In contrast, just one guy off the 2011 Alabama team, DB Mark Barron, has started 99 games in the NFL. He played for Pittsburgh just four days ago vs the Rams.

Another DB, Dre Kirkpatrick, has started 69 games in the NFL. He played last week for the Bengals.

LB D'Onta Hightower has started 84 games for the Patriots. He played last week vs the Ravens.

RB Trent Richardson is regarded as a big bust, he hasn't played since 2014, but he still started 37 games in the NFL.

DE Courtney Upshaw played 5 years in the NFL, starting 57 games.

NT Josh Champman started 15 games in the NFL.

And that's just the *2012* draft for Alabama. They had 9 more guys picked in 2013 and 8 more in 2014. Many of them have been successful in the NFL. No need to break that down.

I know, it's easy to see a guy like Weedon throwing the ball all over the field vs other Big 12 teams and think he could do the same vs Alabama, but Alabama had NFL players on their defense and OK-State didn't have them on their offense.

And Alabama's offense wasn't bad, they scored 35 or more points in 9 of their games. The only games they scored fewer than 24 points in were the two against LSU.

As for LSU, I get it, watching LSU score 9 points in one game and 0 points in another against Alabama could lead you to believe they had a bad offense. But, LSU scored *491 points* in games not against Alabama. Even with the zero points scored in the BCS title game, LSU averaged 36 points a game. In games against teams other than Alabama, they scored 42 points per game.

In contrast, Oklahoma State gave up 27 points per game. So to me, it's much more likely that LSU and Alabama would have scored a lot on OK-State than vice-versa.

FWIW, LSU had 6 guys taken in the 2012 draft, 9 in the 2013 draft, and 9 more in the 2014 draft. It's not a pretty picture compared to Oklahoma State.

LSU's QB wouldn't have started for a lot of FCS teams. Their offense could definitely be stopped. In a high scoring game LSU loses.

There is no doubt LSU and Alabama had more overall talent. But having better NFL players doesn't make for a better college team. Otherwise Gary Patterson and Bill Snyder wouldn't have broken .500 that often.

I get that about college. Particularly when talking about teams that run college-unique schemes, like Navy running the triple option, it's not comparable to the pros.

But LSU, Alabama, and OK State were all running NFL-style schemes, so that makes it pretty comparable. And nobody stopped LSU's offense, except for Alabama. In the 12 games against other teams, they scored 42 points per game.

Bottom line is, OK State's offense played against soft defenses and didn't have much talent. The liklihood that they could get Alabama or LSU's defenses, loaded with NFL talent, in to a high scoring game they could win, is IMO not likely.

In contrast, it's not hard to see Alabama or LSU scoring 30 to 40 points on OK State.

Granted, nobody will ever know for sure. It's all just fun discussion.

(11-15-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 11:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 08:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  I would have been in a small minority, but I would have picked Oklahoma St. And I definitely would have picked them over LSU. I don't think the great defenses at LSU and Alabama would slow down Oklahoma St. enough and LSU didn't have the firepower on offense. Alabama may not have.

We'll never know, but looking at the talent on those teams, it doesn't look close. E.g., in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts, which basically encompass the drafts of players that were on the 2011 Oklahoma State team, there were five total OK-State NFL draft picks. Three were first-round draft picks - WR Justin Blackmon, QB Brandon Weedon, and DB Justin Gilbert. None of them made it in the NFL, none has played a single game since 2016. Collectively, all five guys have started a total of 48 NFL games.

In contrast, just one guy off the 2011 Alabama team, DB Mark Barron, has started 99 games in the NFL. He played for Pittsburgh just four days ago vs the Rams.

Another DB, Dre Kirkpatrick, has started 69 games in the NFL. He played last week for the Bengals.

LB D'Onta Hightower has started 84 games for the Patriots. He played last week vs the Ravens.

RB Trent Richardson is regarded as a big bust, he hasn't played since 2014, but he still started 37 games in the NFL.

DE Courtney Upshaw played 5 years in the NFL, starting 57 games.

NT Josh Champman started 15 games in the NFL.

And that's just the *2012* draft for Alabama. They had 9 more guys picked in 2013 and 8 more in 2014. Many of them have been successful in the NFL. No need to break that down.

I know, it's easy to see a guy like Weedon throwing the ball all over the field vs other Big 12 teams and think he could do the same vs Alabama, but Alabama had NFL players on their defense and OK-State didn't have them on their offense.

And Alabama's offense wasn't bad, they scored 35 or more points in 9 of their games. The only games they scored fewer than 24 points in were the two against LSU.

As for LSU, I get it, watching LSU score 9 points in one game and 0 points in another against Alabama could lead you to believe they had a bad offense. But, LSU scored *491 points* in games not against Alabama. Even with the zero points scored in the BCS title game, LSU averaged 36 points a game. In games against teams other than Alabama, they scored 42 points per game.

In contrast, Oklahoma State gave up 27 points per game. So to me, it's much more likely that LSU and Alabama would have scored a lot on OK-State than vice-versa.

FWIW, LSU had 6 guys taken in the 2012 draft, 9 in the 2013 draft, and 9 more in the 2014 draft. It's not a pretty picture compared to Oklahoma State.

LSU's QB wouldn't have started for a lot of FCS teams. Their offense could definitely be stopped. In a high scoring game LSU loses.

There is no doubt LSU and Alabama had more overall talent. But having better NFL players doesn't make for a better college team. Otherwise Gary Patterson and Bill Snyder wouldn't have broken .500 that often.

I get that about college. Particularly when talking about teams that run college-unique schemes, like Navy running the triple option, it's not comparable to the pros.

But LSU, Alabama, and OK State were all running NFL-style schemes, so that makes it pretty comparable. And nobody stopped LSU's offense, except for Alabama. In the 12 games against other teams, they scored 42 points per game.

Bottom line is, OK State's offense played against soft defenses and didn't have much talent. The liklihood that they could get Alabama or LSU's defenses, loaded with NFL talent, in to a high scoring game they could win, is IMO not likely.

In contrast, it's not hard to see Alabama or LSU scoring 30 to 40 points on OK State.

Granted, nobody will ever know for sure. It's all just fun discussion.

Look, I know I'm a small minority in that opinion. But the Big 12 was very strong that year. Out of conference they went 27-5 (including 6-2 in bowls) for an 84% win percentage.

Looked up some stats for 2011.
Total offense Oklahoma St. #3 520 yds/game, scoring #3 44.2
Alabama #22 444 yds/game, scoring 18 35.7
LSU #86(!) 341 yrds/game, scoring 45 29.3

As for weak defenses, Ok. St. didn't have much of one, but while Alabama was #5 and LSU #12, Big 12 members Texas was #6 and Nebraska was #11. So they faced some good defenses and scored on everyone.

(11-15-2019 09:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 11:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 08:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  I would have been in a small minority, but I would have picked Oklahoma St. And I definitely would have picked them over LSU. I don't think the great defenses at LSU and Alabama would slow down Oklahoma St. enough and LSU didn't have the firepower on offense. Alabama may not have.

We'll never know, but looking at the talent on those teams, it doesn't look close. E.g., in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts, which basically encompass the drafts of players that were on the 2011 Oklahoma State team, there were five total OK-State NFL draft picks. Three were first-round draft picks - WR Justin Blackmon, QB Brandon Weedon, and DB Justin Gilbert. None of them made it in the NFL, none has played a single game since 2016. Collectively, all five guys have started a total of 48 NFL games.

In contrast, just one guy off the 2011 Alabama team, DB Mark Barron, has started 99 games in the NFL. He played for Pittsburgh just four days ago vs the Rams.

Another DB, Dre Kirkpatrick, has started 69 games in the NFL. He played last week for the Bengals.

LB D'Onta Hightower has started 84 games for the Patriots. He played last week vs the Ravens.

RB Trent Richardson is regarded as a big bust, he hasn't played since 2014, but he still started 37 games in the NFL.

DE Courtney Upshaw played 5 years in the NFL, starting 57 games.

NT Josh Champman started 15 games in the NFL.

And that's just the *2012* draft for Alabama. They had 9 more guys picked in 2013 and 8 more in 2014. Many of them have been successful in the NFL. No need to break that down.

I know, it's easy to see a guy like Weedon throwing the ball all over the field vs other Big 12 teams and think he could do the same vs Alabama, but Alabama had NFL players on their defense and OK-State didn't have them on their offense.

And Alabama's offense wasn't bad, they scored 35 or more points in 9 of their games. The only games they scored fewer than 24 points in were the two against LSU.

As for LSU, I get it, watching LSU score 9 points in one game and 0 points in another against Alabama could lead you to believe they had a bad offense. But, LSU scored *491 points* in games not against Alabama. Even with the zero points scored in the BCS title game, LSU averaged 36 points a game. In games against teams other than Alabama, they scored 42 points per game.

In contrast, Oklahoma State gave up 27 points per game. So to me, it's much more likely that LSU and Alabama would have scored a lot on OK-State than vice-versa.

FWIW, LSU had 6 guys taken in the 2012 draft, 9 in the 2013 draft, and 9 more in the 2014 draft. It's not a pretty picture compared to Oklahoma State.

LSU's QB wouldn't have started for a lot of FCS teams. Their offense could definitely be stopped. In a high scoring game LSU loses.

There is no doubt LSU and Alabama had more overall talent. But having better NFL players doesn't make for a better college team. Otherwise Gary Patterson and Bill Snyder wouldn't have broken .500 that often.

I get that about college. Particularly when talking about teams that run college-unique schemes, like Navy running the triple option, it's not comparable to the pros.

But LSU, Alabama, and OK State were all running NFL-style schemes, so that makes it pretty comparable. And nobody stopped LSU's offense, except for Alabama. In the 12 games against other teams, they scored 42 points per game.

Bottom line is, OK State's offense played against soft defenses and didn't have much talent. The liklihood that they could get Alabama or LSU's defenses, loaded with NFL talent, in to a high scoring game they could win, is IMO not likely.

In contrast, it's not hard to see Alabama or LSU scoring 30 to 40 points on OK State.

Granted, nobody will ever know for sure. It's all just fun discussion.

Look, I know I'm a small minority in that opinion. But the Big 12 was very strong that year. Out of conference they went 27-5 (including 6-2 in bowls) for an 84% win percentage.

And only 11-5 vs P5 teams. And only 2 wins vs P5 teams with fewer than 6 losses. A lot of cupcakes and bad P5 teams they beat.

(11-15-2019 10:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  Looked up some stats for 2011.
Total offense Oklahoma St. #3 520 yds/game, scoring #3 44.2
Alabama #22 444 yds/game, scoring 18 35.7
LSU #86(!) 341 yrds/game, scoring 45 29.3

As for weak defenses, Ok. St. didn't have much of one, but while Alabama was #5 and LSU #12, Big 12 members Texas was #6 and Nebraska was #11. So they faced some good defenses and scored on everyone.

Nebraska was already in the Big Ten.... lol. And Texas held them to 38 points.

The best defense they faced Texas held them 10.7 points below average and 125.8 yards below average.

Sorry but those are pretty damning numbers.

(11-15-2019 10:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  Looked up some stats for 2011.
Total offense Oklahoma St. #3 520 yds/game, scoring #3 44.2
Alabama #22 444 yds/game, scoring 18 35.7
LSU #86(!) 341 yrds/game, scoring 45 29.3

As for weak defenses, Ok. St. didn't have much of one, but while Alabama was #5 and LSU #12, Big 12 members Texas was #6 and Nebraska was #11. So they faced some good defenses and scored on everyone.

Those numbers don't look right. LSU scored 500 points in 14 games, that's 35.7 PPG.

Alabama scored 453 points in 13 games, or 34.8 PPG.

Overall, comparing LSU vs OK State:

LSU scored 500 points and gave up 158 points.

OK State scored 633 points and gave up 348 points.

So LSU had a +342 spread, OK State had a +285 spread. LSU much better.

To me, it is easy to believe that LSU or Alabama could score a lot of points on Oklahoma State. They each scored a lot of points on a lot of teams that year and OK State gave up a lot of points to several teams that year.

It's much harder for me to believe that OK State would score a lot of points on AL or LSU. Yes, OK State scored a lot of points against a lot of teams, but AL and LSU didn't give up a lot of points to anyone.

I think what has happened is that a myth has arisen that 2011 AL and LSU were these Cro-Magnon, Woody Hayes, three yards and a cloud of dust teams that were all defense and no offense, winning games 10-6.

Truth is, they only did that against each other. Against everyone else, they scored lots of points.

An LSU vs OK State game would have been a Great Offense vs a Great Defense on one side of the ball, and on the other, a Good to Very Good offense (LSU) vs a mediocre to poor Defense (OK State).

That vastly favors LSU.

(11-15-2019 10:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2019 09:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 11:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 09:05 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  We'll never know, but looking at the talent on those teams, it doesn't look close. E.g., in the 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts, which basically encompass the drafts of players that were on the 2011 Oklahoma State team, there were five total OK-State NFL draft picks. Three were first-round draft picks - WR Justin Blackmon, QB Brandon Weedon, and DB Justin Gilbert. None of them made it in the NFL, none has played a single game since 2016. Collectively, all five guys have started a total of 48 NFL games.

In contrast, just one guy off the 2011 Alabama team, DB Mark Barron, has started 99 games in the NFL. He played for Pittsburgh just four days ago vs the Rams.

Another DB, Dre Kirkpatrick, has started 69 games in the NFL. He played last week for the Bengals.

LB D'Onta Hightower has started 84 games for the Patriots. He played last week vs the Ravens.

RB Trent Richardson is regarded as a big bust, he hasn't played since 2014, but he still started 37 games in the NFL.

DE Courtney Upshaw played 5 years in the NFL, starting 57 games.

NT Josh Champman started 15 games in the NFL.

And that's just the *2012* draft for Alabama. They had 9 more guys picked in 2013 and 8 more in 2014. Many of them have been successful in the NFL. No need to break that down.

I know, it's easy to see a guy like Weedon throwing the ball all over the field vs other Big 12 teams and think he could do the same vs Alabama, but Alabama had NFL players on their defense and OK-State didn't have them on their offense.

And Alabama's offense wasn't bad, they scored 35 or more points in 9 of their games. The only games they scored fewer than 24 points in were the two against LSU.

As for LSU, I get it, watching LSU score 9 points in one game and 0 points in another against Alabama could lead you to believe they had a bad offense. But, LSU scored *491 points* in games not against Alabama. Even with the zero points scored in the BCS title game, LSU averaged 36 points a game. In games against teams other than Alabama, they scored 42 points per game.

In contrast, Oklahoma State gave up 27 points per game. So to me, it's much more likely that LSU and Alabama would have scored a lot on OK-State than vice-versa.

FWIW, LSU had 6 guys taken in the 2012 draft, 9 in the 2013 draft, and 9 more in the 2014 draft. It's not a pretty picture compared to Oklahoma State.

LSU's QB wouldn't have started for a lot of FCS teams. Their offense could definitely be stopped. In a high scoring game LSU loses.

There is no doubt LSU and Alabama had more overall talent. But having better NFL players doesn't make for a better college team. Otherwise Gary Patterson and Bill Snyder wouldn't have broken .500 that often.

I get that about college. Particularly when talking about teams that run college-unique schemes, like Navy running the triple option, it's not comparable to the pros.

But LSU, Alabama, and OK State were all running NFL-style schemes, so that makes it pretty comparable. And nobody stopped LSU's offense, except for Alabama. In the 12 games against other teams, they scored 42 points per game.

Bottom line is, OK State's offense played against soft defenses and didn't have much talent. The liklihood that they could get Alabama or LSU's defenses, loaded with NFL talent, in to a high scoring game they could win, is IMO not likely.

In contrast, it's not hard to see Alabama or LSU scoring 30 to 40 points on OK State.

Granted, nobody will ever know for sure. It's all just fun discussion.

Look, I know I'm a small minority in that opinion. But the Big 12 was very strong that year. Out of conference they went 27-5 (including 6-2 in bowls) for an 84% win percentage.

And only 11-5 vs P5 teams. And only 2 wins vs P5 teams with fewer than 6 losses. A lot of cupcakes and bad P5 teams they beat.

6-2 in bowl season and WAY ahead of everyone but SEC.
And what you say applies to every conference. Yet the Big 12 lapped all but SEC:
Big 12 27-5 84.4%
SEC 35-8 81.4%
Big 10 30-18 62.5%
Big East 22-17 56.4%
Pac 12 18-16 52.9%
ACC 21-22 48.8%
MWC 17-19 47.2%

Sagarin:https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/2011/conference/
Big 12 had 7 in top 19 and 8 in top 12. Like most it had Bama 1, LSU 2 and Oklahoma St. 3. Big 12 rated top conference.

CONFERENCE CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%

1 BIG 12 (A) = 83.61 82.83 ( 1) 10 83.08 ( 1)
2 SOUTHEASTERN (A) = 80.88 81.60 ( 2) 12 81.27 ( 2)
3 BIG TEN (A) = 75.55 75.30 ( 4) 12 75.49 ( 3)
4 PAC-12 (A) = 74.72 75.38 ( 3) 12 75.14 ( 4)
5 BIG EAST (A) = 72.41 72.86 ( 5) 8 72.82 ( 5)
6 I-A INDEPENDENTS (A) = 71.92 71.49 ( 6) 4 71.59 ( 6)
7 ATLANTIC COAST (A) = 71.23 71.03 ( 7) 12 71.06 ( 7)
8 CONFERENCE USA (A) = 66.04 65.79 ( 9) 12 65.98 ( 8)
9 MOUNTAIN WEST (A) = 65.86 66.22 ( 8) 8 65.85 ( 9)
10 WESTERN ATHLETIC (A) = 63.73 63.94 ( 10) 8 63.92 ( 10)
11 MID-AMERICAN (A) = 63.53 63.31 ( 11) 13 63.51 ( 11)
12 SUN BELT (A) = 58.85 58.30 ( 13) 9 58.44 ( 13)

(11-15-2019 01:47 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2019 10:11 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-15-2019 09:54 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-15-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-14-2019 11:07 PM)bullet Wrote:  LSU's QB wouldn't have started for a lot of FCS teams. Their offense could definitely be stopped. In a high scoring game LSU loses.

There is no doubt LSU and Alabama had more overall talent. But having better NFL players doesn't make for a better college team. Otherwise Gary Patterson and Bill Snyder wouldn't have broken .500 that often.

I get that about college. Particularly when talking about teams that run college-unique schemes, like Navy running the triple option, it's not comparable to the pros.

But LSU, Alabama, and OK State were all running NFL-style schemes, so that makes it pretty comparable. And nobody stopped LSU's offense, except for Alabama. In the 12 games against other teams, they scored 42 points per game.

Bottom line is, OK State's offense played against soft defenses and didn't have much talent. The liklihood that they could get Alabama or LSU's defenses, loaded with NFL talent, in to a high scoring game they could win, is IMO not likely.

In contrast, it's not hard to see Alabama or LSU scoring 30 to 40 points on OK State.

Granted, nobody will ever know for sure. It's all just fun discussion.

Look, I know I'm a small minority in that opinion. But the Big 12 was very strong that year. Out of conference they went 27-5 (including 6-2 in bowls) for an 84% win percentage.

And only 11-5 vs P5 teams. And only 2 wins vs P5 teams with fewer than 6 losses. A lot of cupcakes and bad P5 teams they beat.

6-2 in bowl season and WAY ahead of everyone but SEC.
And what you say applies to every conference. Yet the Big 12 lapped all but SEC:
Big 12 27-5 84.4%
SEC 35-8 81.4%
Big 10 30-18 62.5%
Big East 22-17 56.4%
Pac 12 18-16 52.9%
ACC 21-22 48.8%
MWC 17-19 47.2%

who gives a **** about that when only 2 of those wins were vs power teams with fewer than 6 losses.... Just because you beat the little sisters of the poor doesn't mean you are good. Teams like Louisiana, Kent St, Ball St, Miami Ohio, Idaho, etc. don't mean ****.