Save your energies, boys. The road to Detroit is extremely improbable (to the point of almost impossible). It’s fun to dream, I guess, but that’s all it is. Maybe next year.

(11-16-2019 08:35 AM)Dog Fan Wrote:  Save your energies, boys. The road to Detroit is extremely improbable (to the point of almost impossible). It’s fun to dream, I guess, but that’s all it is. Maybe next year.

You are so right! If I am thinking of this correctly the chances are about at 2%. Mainly this is just an exercise to have an excuse to watch more football

(11-16-2019 08:42 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 08:35 AM)Dog Fan Wrote:  Save your energies, boys. The road to Detroit is extremely improbable (to the point of almost impossible). It’s fun to dream, I guess, but that’s all it is. Maybe next year.

You are so right! If I am thinking of this correctly the chances are about at 2%. Mainly this is just an exercise to have an excuse to watch more football

That’s all it is. Today’s game is more interesting now. As long as there is hope going into the final week. It’s super depressing when you’re eliminated with 3 weeks left in the season.

(11-16-2019 08:42 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 08:35 AM)Dog Fan Wrote:  Save your energies, boys. The road to Detroit is extremely improbable (to the point of almost impossible). It’s fun to dream, I guess, but that’s all it is. Maybe next year.

You are so right! If I am thinking of this correctly the chances are about at 2%. Mainly this is just an exercise to have an excuse to watch more football

It’s a little better than 2%. All we really need is Toledo to win their last 2 and BSU to lose 2 out of 3. So a lot comes down to two games. CMU winning today(I think that happens) and Toledo beating buffalo. After that things look pretty good. If you think CMU is our kryptonite, Toledo Has beaten CMU 9 straight times! That will be a win or go home game for them possibly. Id say it’s almost 50/50 if those first two games go our way.

(11-16-2019 09:02 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 08:42 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 08:35 AM)Dog Fan Wrote:  Save your energies, boys. The road to Detroit is extremely improbable (to the point of almost impossible). It’s fun to dream, I guess, but that’s all it is. Maybe next year.

You are so right! If I am thinking of this correctly the chances are about at 2%. Mainly this is just an exercise to have an excuse to watch more football

It’s a little better than 2%. All we really need is Toledo to win their last 2 and BSU to lose 2 out of 3. So a lot comes down to two games. CMU winning today(I think that happens) and Toledo beating buffalo. After that things look pretty good. If you think CMU is our kryptonite, Toledo Has beaten CMU 9 straight times! That will be a win or go home game for them possibly. Id say it’s almost 50/50 if those first two games go our way.

I feel like we want Ball State to win today. Doesn't that path make it possible the Buffalo/Toledo game will be meaningless for NIU as long as Toledo beats CMU. Having to rely on Toledo winning 2 road games with the CMU winning today route just seems highly unlikely. I guess one argument against the Ball State winning today path would be that Miami-OH would have to beat Ball State and Miami will probably not be all in with a trip to Detroit already in hand. All in all, I think the probabilities are very similar no matter who wins today between CMU and Ball State. In both cases, NIU obviously needs to win out and I believe Toledo needs to beat CMU. In comes down to preference would you want:

- CMU beats Ball State

Need Toledo to beat Buffalo AND Ball State to lose 1 of its last 2

or

- Ball State beats CMU

Need Ball State to lose its last 2




Just for my personal preference, I do not trust Toledo to win 2 road games. If you go by straight probabilities, I think Ball State winning today is a slightly higher probability path for NIU

Who are we rooting for today? Central or Ball State?

(11-16-2019 09:30 AM)SRprepfootball Wrote:  Who are we rooting for today? Central or Ball State?

Rabid correct me if I am wrong,

SRprep football I don't think it really matters:

If Central wins NIU could get in with:

NIU beats WMU
NIU beats EMU
Toledo beats CMU
Ball State loses to Kent OR Ball State loses to Miami
Toledo beats Buffalo

If Ball State wins NIU could get in with:

NIU beats WMU
NIU beats WMU
Toledo beats CMU
Ball State loses to Kent
Ball State loses to Miami

(11-16-2019 06:24 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Thanks for doing all the work on this Rabid, so does it essentially come down to:

if CMU beats Ball State today,....BSU only needs to lose 1 of its last 2 and Toledo must win out.

And if Ball State beats CMU today...Ball State needs to lose its final two games, and Toledo just has to beat CMU. Toledo/Buffalo does not matter in this scenario right?

I have not really plunged into this, but if the above is true, I almost think NIU would want Ball State to win today.

If you want to go for the cleanest good NIU scenario, yes, root for BSU today. Problem with that is it BSU HAS to lose their last two games. Being that one is against Kent I find it unlikely. If BSU gets in we are dead. Only WMU has a win over BSU. So BSU wins all tie breakers. What I’m proposing with a CMU win is more complicated but I think it’s more likely. Maybe not by odds because the more games involved the more the odds drop.

BSU wins today and all you have to worry about is BSU losing out

CMU wins today and next step is Toledo over BUFF

The only scenarios where NIU wins the west are:
NIU+WMU (tol loses to buff, BSU beats CMU then loses out, CMU loses out)
NIU+WMU+TOL (same as above but tol wins last 2 games)
NIU+WMU+TOL+CMU(tol wins out, CMU beats BSU, BSU loses 2/3)

It’s really a toss up for who you want to win today. It comes down to What is more likely, BSU losing to kent and Miami or Toledo beating buff and CMU. I like Toledo’s chances just slightly more(though I just checked and both games for Toledo are road games....)

(11-16-2019 09:37 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 06:24 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Thanks for doing all the work on this Rabid, so does it essentially come down to:

if CMU beats Ball State today,....BSU only needs to lose 1 of its last 2 and Toledo must win out.

And if Ball State beats CMU today...Ball State needs to lose its final two games, and Toledo just has to beat CMU. Toledo/Buffalo does not matter in this scenario right?

I have not really plunged into this, but if the above is true, I almost think NIU would want Ball State to win today.

If you want to go for the cleanest good NIU scenario, yes, root for BSU today. Problem with that is it BSU HAS to lose their last two games. Being that one is against Kent I find it unlikely. If BSU gets in we are dead. Only WMU has a win over BSU. So BSU wins all tie breakers. What I’m proposing with a CMU win is more complicated but I think it’s more likely. Maybe not by odds because the more games involved the more the odds drop.

BSU wins today and all you have to worry about is BSU losing out

CMU wins today and next step is Toledo over BUFF

The only scenarios where NIU wins the west are:
NIU+WMU (tol loses to buff, BSU beats CMU then loses out, CMU loses out)
NIU+WMU+TOL (same as above but tol wins last 2 games)
NIU+WMU+TOL+CMU(tol wins out, CMU beats BSU, BSU loses 2/3)

It’s really a toss up for who you want to win today. It comes down to What is more likely, BSU losing to kent and Miami or Toledo beating buff and CMU. I like Toledo’s chances just slightly more(though I just checked and both games for Toledo are road games....)

Thanks Rabid, I understand your reasoning. I just think Ball State is somewhat of a fraud. To me it would be clear to want the Ball State route if we could be assured Miami-OH was playing for something in that last game. Considering everything, I agree, it is basically a wash, a coin-toss based on personal preference.

(11-16-2019 09:39 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:37 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 06:24 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Thanks for doing all the work on this Rabid, so does it essentially come down to:

if CMU beats Ball State today,....BSU only needs to lose 1 of its last 2 and Toledo must win out.

And if Ball State beats CMU today...Ball State needs to lose its final two games, and Toledo just has to beat CMU. Toledo/Buffalo does not matter in this scenario right?

I have not really plunged into this, but if the above is true, I almost think NIU would want Ball State to win today.

If you want to go for the cleanest good NIU scenario, yes, root for BSU today. Problem with that is it BSU HAS to lose their last two games. Being that one is against Kent I find it unlikely. If BSU gets in we are dead. Only WMU has a win over BSU. So BSU wins all tie breakers. What I’m proposing with a CMU win is more complicated but I think it’s more likely. Maybe not by odds because the more games involved the more the odds drop.

BSU wins today and all you have to worry about is BSU losing out

CMU wins today and next step is Toledo over BUFF

The only scenarios where NIU wins the west are:
NIU+WMU (tol loses to buff, BSU beats CMU then loses out, CMU loses out)
NIU+WMU+TOL (same as above but tol wins last 2 games)
NIU+WMU+TOL+CMU(tol wins out, CMU beats BSU, BSU loses 2/3)

It’s really a toss up for who you want to win today. It comes down to What is more likely, BSU losing to kent and Miami or Toledo beating buff and CMU. I like Toledo’s chances just slightly more(though I just checked and both games for Toledo are road games....)

Thanks Rabid, I understand your reasoning. I just think Ball State is somewhat of a fraud. To me it would be clear to want the Ball State route if we could be assured Miami-OH was playing for something in that last game. Considering everything, I agree, it is basically a wash, a coin-toss based on personal preference.

I forgot! I need to add that we still need Toledo to beat CMU even if BSU wins today and loses last two. The scenario of WMU+NIU+CMU is a loser for us.

Ok, now that I remembered that portion that’s why I want CMU today. We need Toledo in unless both CMU AND BSU don’t make it. But if one of them does make it we still need Toledo. And only CMU of the two allows us the west even with Toledo.

(11-16-2019 09:55 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:39 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:37 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 06:24 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Thanks for doing all the work on this Rabid, so does it essentially come down to:

if CMU beats Ball State today,....BSU only needs to lose 1 of its last 2 and Toledo must win out.

And if Ball State beats CMU today...Ball State needs to lose its final two games, and Toledo just has to beat CMU. Toledo/Buffalo does not matter in this scenario right?

I have not really plunged into this, but if the above is true, I almost think NIU would want Ball State to win today.

If you want to go for the cleanest good NIU scenario, yes, root for BSU today. Problem with that is it BSU HAS to lose their last two games. Being that one is against Kent I find it unlikely. If BSU gets in we are dead. Only WMU has a win over BSU. So BSU wins all tie breakers. What I’m proposing with a CMU win is more complicated but I think it’s more likely. Maybe not by odds because the more games involved the more the odds drop.

BSU wins today and all you have to worry about is BSU losing out

CMU wins today and next step is Toledo over BUFF

The only scenarios where NIU wins the west are:
NIU+WMU (tol loses to buff, BSU beats CMU then loses out, CMU loses out)
NIU+WMU+TOL (same as above but tol wins last 2 games)
NIU+WMU+TOL+CMU(tol wins out, CMU beats BSU, BSU loses 2/3)

It’s really a toss up for who you want to win today. It comes down to What is more likely, BSU losing to kent and Miami or Toledo beating buff and CMU. I like Toledo’s chances just slightly more(though I just checked and both games for Toledo are road games....)

Thanks Rabid, I understand your reasoning. I just think Ball State is somewhat of a fraud. To me it would be clear to want the Ball State route if we could be assured Miami-OH was playing for something in that last game. Considering everything, I agree, it is basically a wash, a coin-toss based on personal preference.

I forgot! I need to add that we still need Toledo to win out even if BSU wins today and loses last two. The scenario of WMU+NIU+CMU is a loser for us.

Ok, now that I remembered that portion that’s why I want CMU today. We need Toledo in unless both CMU AND BSU don’t make it. But if one of them does make it we still need Toledo. And only CMU of the two allows us the west even with Toledo.

Are you sure Toledo needs to win out if BSU wins? As long as CMU loses to Toledo wouldnt that keep CMU at 4-4, and NIU and WMU 5-3. All scenarios need Toledo to beat CMU but I think Ball State winning today could make Toledo/Buffalo meaningless.

(11-16-2019 09:58 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:55 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:39 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:37 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 06:24 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Thanks for doing all the work on this Rabid, so does it essentially come down to:

if CMU beats Ball State today,....BSU only needs to lose 1 of its last 2 and Toledo must win out.

And if Ball State beats CMU today...Ball State needs to lose its final two games, and Toledo just has to beat CMU. Toledo/Buffalo does not matter in this scenario right?

I have not really plunged into this, but if the above is true, I almost think NIU would want Ball State to win today.

If you want to go for the cleanest good NIU scenario, yes, root for BSU today. Problem with that is it BSU HAS to lose their last two games. Being that one is against Kent I find it unlikely. If BSU gets in we are dead. Only WMU has a win over BSU. So BSU wins all tie breakers. What I’m proposing with a CMU win is more complicated but I think it’s more likely. Maybe not by odds because the more games involved the more the odds drop.

BSU wins today and all you have to worry about is BSU losing out

CMU wins today and next step is Toledo over BUFF

The only scenarios where NIU wins the west are:
NIU+WMU (tol loses to buff, BSU beats CMU then loses out, CMU loses out)
NIU+WMU+TOL (same as above but tol wins last 2 games)
NIU+WMU+TOL+CMU(tol wins out, CMU beats BSU, BSU loses 2/3)

It’s really a toss up for who you want to win today. It comes down to What is more likely, BSU losing to kent and Miami or Toledo beating buff and CMU. I like Toledo’s chances just slightly more(though I just checked and both games for Toledo are road games....)

Thanks Rabid, I understand your reasoning. I just think Ball State is somewhat of a fraud. To me it would be clear to want the Ball State route if we could be assured Miami-OH was playing for something in that last game. Considering everything, I agree, it is basically a wash, a coin-toss based on personal preference.

I forgot! I need to add that we still need Toledo to win out even if BSU wins today and loses last two. The scenario of WMU+NIU+CMU is a loser for us.

Ok, now that I remembered that portion that’s why I want CMU today. We need Toledo in unless both CMU AND BSU don’t make it. But if one of them does make it we still need Toledo. And only CMU of the two allows us the west even with Toledo.

Are you sure Toledo needs to win out if BSU wins? As long as CMU loses to Toledo wouldnt that keep CMU at 4-4, and NIU and WMU 5-3. All scenarios need Toledo to beat CMU but I think Ball State winning today could make Toledo/Buffalo meaningless.

Correct. I amended that in last stamens but you beat me to it.

(11-16-2019 10:00 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:58 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:55 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:39 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:37 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  If you want to go for the cleanest good NIU scenario, yes, root for BSU today. Problem with that is it BSU HAS to lose their last two games. Being that one is against Kent I find it unlikely. If BSU gets in we are dead. Only WMU has a win over BSU. So BSU wins all tie breakers. What I’m proposing with a CMU win is more complicated but I think it’s more likely. Maybe not by odds because the more games involved the more the odds drop.

BSU wins today and all you have to worry about is BSU losing out

CMU wins today and next step is Toledo over BUFF

The only scenarios where NIU wins the west are:
NIU+WMU (tol loses to buff, BSU beats CMU then loses out, CMU loses out)
NIU+WMU+TOL (same as above but tol wins last 2 games)
NIU+WMU+TOL+CMU(tol wins out, CMU beats BSU, BSU loses 2/3)

It’s really a toss up for who you want to win today. It comes down to What is more likely, BSU losing to kent and Miami or Toledo beating buff and CMU. I like Toledo’s chances just slightly more(though I just checked and both games for Toledo are road games....)

Thanks Rabid, I understand your reasoning. I just think Ball State is somewhat of a fraud. To me it would be clear to want the Ball State route if we could be assured Miami-OH was playing for something in that last game. Considering everything, I agree, it is basically a wash, a coin-toss based on personal preference.

I forgot! I need to add that we still need Toledo to win out even if BSU wins today and loses last two. The scenario of WMU+NIU+CMU is a loser for us.

Ok, now that I remembered that portion that’s why I want CMU today. We need Toledo in unless both CMU AND BSU don’t make it. But if one of them does make it we still need Toledo. And only CMU of the two allows us the west even with Toledo.

Are you sure Toledo needs to win out if BSU wins? As long as CMU loses to Toledo wouldnt that keep CMU at 4-4, and NIU and WMU 5-3. All scenarios need Toledo to beat CMU but I think Ball State winning today could make Toledo/Buffalo meaningless.

Correct. I amended that in last stamens but you beat me to it.

Oh ok cool, thanks again for doing all that work the past few days, i think i FINALLY understand it hahah.

(11-16-2019 10:02 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 10:00 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:58 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:55 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  

(11-16-2019 09:39 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Thanks Rabid, I understand your reasoning. I just think Ball State is somewhat of a fraud. To me it would be clear to want the Ball State route if we could be assured Miami-OH was playing for something in that last game. Considering everything, I agree, it is basically a wash, a coin-toss based on personal preference.

I forgot! I need to add that we still need Toledo to win out even if BSU wins today and loses last two. The scenario of WMU+NIU+CMU is a loser for us.

Ok, now that I remembered that portion that’s why I want CMU today. We need Toledo in unless both CMU AND BSU don’t make it. But if one of them does make it we still need Toledo. And only CMU of the two allows us the west even with Toledo.

Are you sure Toledo needs to win out if BSU wins? As long as CMU loses to Toledo wouldnt that keep CMU at 4-4, and NIU and WMU 5-3. All scenarios need Toledo to beat CMU but I think Ball State winning today could make Toledo/Buffalo meaningless.

Correct. I amended that in last stamens but you beat me to it.

Oh ok cool, thanks again for doing all that work the past few days, i think i FINALLY understand it hahah.

It’s so confusing. My desk looks like the chalk board in Good Will Hunting. But in the end, both scenarios require 3 games to go our way. So tomato, tamoto

Today’s winner:

BSU: a)lose to kent b)lose to Miami c)Toledo beat CMU
CMU: a)tol beat buff b)tol beat CMU c)BSU lose to Miami or kent

So I think there being two games for c) in the CMU scenario our odds increase ever so slightly.

This thread will look utterly stupid when we lose to EMU

(11-16-2019 10:20 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  This thread will look utterly stupid when we lose to EMU

That's how it feels on the WMU board right now. Each of these missteps that are being described really benefit WMU as much as it does NIU. Unless every team wins out (BSU, TOL, NIU), WMU is in even with a loss to NIU. WMU holds the tie-breaker over CMU and BSU, EMU already has 4 losses, and another loss by TOL or NIU puts those teams at 4 losses.

Your game against EMU is really going to establish the rest of how this shakes out. Nothing against you, but of everyone, I think that CMU has the easiest path. I would be pulling for BSU today...they at least have two more chances to lose after today.

(11-16-2019 10:20 AM)Rabid Squirrel Wrote:  This thread will look utterly stupid when we lose to EMU

I get 2.1% chance with BSU winning and 1.0% percent chance with CMU winning :) Of course that assumes Miami would be interested in playing football the last game! This should make everyone feel better, right now the odds of NIU going to Detroit are about equal to NIU winning the MAC basketball tournament this year lol

Hustle Belt laid all this out and bowl eligibility:

https://www.hustlebelt.com/2019/11/16/20...ohio-miami

(11-16-2019 12:14 PM)NILAW Wrote:  Hustle Belt laid all this out and bowl eligibility:

https://www.hustlebelt.com/2019/11/16/20...ohio-miami

Thanks for posting!

Excellent article for those like myself who either cannot do or maybe prefer not to do the mental gymnastics .

Will be fun to watch all these scenarios.

So glad that we are still alive to reach the postseason and still marveling that we might still punch a ticket to Detroit!!