(11-05-2019 01:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 12:38 PM)drewmey Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 10:51 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 09:44 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 09:21 AM)drewmey Wrote:  Lots of people talking about a #2 vs. a #3 spot in the playoffs. If JMU wins out, I am not sure it is really that big of a deal. The difference from #2 to #3 is not nearly as monumental as #3 to #4.

Yes, the games leading to the semi final are slightly different but it is difficult to say which one is actually harder. It will really depend on how the playoff committee handles those "hard to rank teams". For example, if an undefeated Princeton/Dartmouth was in our path as a #3 seed, I would prefer that over a Sac State or Montana State in our path as a #2 seed. Hard to say whether one is even really better when there is so much disparity between conferences and you don't know who will get the other seeds in the bracket.

Kind of like the 2016 season where JMU had to play the 'scary undefeated' Sam Houston State. And of course we crushed them by building up a 65-0 lead before saying...yeah....it's over.

It is SDSU who should be rooting for a Weber State loss more than anyone else. Or a JMU loss for that matter.

I think 2 vs 3 is a huge deal when youre talking about the possibility of traveling to Ogden Utah for the semifinal game. Its not quite at denver elevation but its still 4300' . Depth could be an issue for our guys and playing in Utah in December never sounds fun.

Also the Ivys dont participate in the playoffs. So we'd never see princeton or dartmouth

Yeah -

No real difference between #1 and #2, but between #2 and #3 is huge since it determines if you have home field all the way to Frisco.

I'm sure everyone would prefer to be seeded #6 or #7, than #5. (except for Purple that does not think the "smelly Bison" are that great.)

I guess I wouldn't consider one home game difference as detrimental as having to play NDSU. Hasn't exactly been a lot of teams to go through NDSU the last 8 years. I'd take a road game at Weber over a road game at Fargo. And I'd consider that a better advantage than a home game vs. an away at Weber. But to each their own.

Unless we drop to 4 we wouldnt go to Fargo so I'd rather have a game in Harrisonburg over a game in Utah. If we win out i cant see us dropping to 4

Regardless if the top four all win out, the seeds will most likely be 1 NDSU 2 Weber 3 JMU and 4 SDSU

While I won’t say that’s impossible, I also wouldn’t say likely, or even the correct seeding. I believe we should get the two seed if we win out.

In this scenario JMU has a loss to FBS WVU, while Weber has two FBS losses to San Diego St and Nevada. Sure the committee might discount/ignore FBS losses a bit, but that still gives JMU one additional FCS win, and a higher W/L ratio.

The committee has used that logic in past years to exclude a team or two from making the field/cut, so if they are consistent, that additional FCS win is also an edge for JMU over Weber. It also shifts the SRS calculation in our favor. An FCS win is better than an FBS loss, though an FBS loss is better than an FCS loss. Not certain, but don’t believe the strength of the FBS opponent is considered/calculated, but the loss still counts.

(11-05-2019 01:46 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 12:38 PM)drewmey Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 10:51 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 09:44 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  I think 2 vs 3 is a huge deal when youre talking about the possibility of traveling to Ogden Utah for the semifinal game. Its not quite at denver elevation but its still 4300' . Depth could be an issue for our guys and playing in Utah in December never sounds fun.

Also the Ivys dont participate in the playoffs. So we'd never see princeton or dartmouth

Yeah -

No real difference between #1 and #2, but between #2 and #3 is huge since it determines if you have home field all the way to Frisco.

I'm sure everyone would prefer to be seeded #6 or #7, than #5. (except for Purple that does not think the "smelly Bison" are that great.)

I guess I wouldn't consider one home game difference as detrimental as having to play NDSU. Hasn't exactly been a lot of teams to go through NDSU the last 8 years. I'd take a road game at Weber over a road game at Fargo. And I'd consider that a better advantage than a home game vs. an away at Weber. But to each their own.

Unless we drop to 4 we wouldnt go to Fargo so I'd rather have a game in Harrisonburg over a game in Utah. If we win out i cant see us dropping to 4

Regardless if the top four all win out, the seeds will most likely be 1 NDSU 2 Weber 3 JMU and 4 SDSU

While I won’t say that’s impossible, I also wouldn’t say likely, or even the correct seeding. I believe we should get the two seed if we win out.

In this scenario JMU has a loss to FBS WVU, while Weber has two FBS losses to San Diego St and Nevada. Sure the committee might discount/ignore FBS losses a bit, but that still gives JMU one additional FCS win, and a higher W/L ratio.

The committee has used that logic in past years to exclude a team or two from making the field/cut, so if they are consistent, that additional FCS win is also an edge for JMU over Weber.

Our best win is against a rapidly failing Villanova, only one other team is even ranked that we beat (towson). WVU is 3-5 and isnt too far from us in the Sagarin rankings. Meanwhile Weber lost by 6 to San diego st who is ranked 24th in the nation. They will have top ten wins over UNI (#5) sac st (#8) montana (currently 6 but if weber wins will probably still be top 10) and a win over 22 UND. Weber's SOS is hands down better than ours. Not saying they are a better team than us but their resume is certainly the second best at the moment

Note: if weber loses to UND this weekend than all bets are off obviously

(11-05-2019 02:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:46 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 12:38 PM)drewmey Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 10:51 AM)Dukester Wrote:  Yeah -

No real difference between #1 and #2, but between #2 and #3 is huge since it determines if you have home field all the way to Frisco.

I'm sure everyone would prefer to be seeded #6 or #7, than #5. (except for Purple that does not think the "smelly Bison" are that great.)

I guess I wouldn't consider one home game difference as detrimental as having to play NDSU. Hasn't exactly been a lot of teams to go through NDSU the last 8 years. I'd take a road game at Weber over a road game at Fargo. And I'd consider that a better advantage than a home game vs. an away at Weber. But to each their own.

Unless we drop to 4 we wouldnt go to Fargo so I'd rather have a game in Harrisonburg over a game in Utah. If we win out i cant see us dropping to 4

Regardless if the top four all win out, the seeds will most likely be 1 NDSU 2 Weber 3 JMU and 4 SDSU

While I won’t say that’s impossible, I also wouldn’t say likely, or even the correct seeding. I believe we should get the two seed if we win out.

In this scenario JMU has a loss to FBS WVU, while Weber has two FBS losses to San Diego St and Nevada. Sure the committee might discount/ignore FBS losses a bit, but that still gives JMU one additional FCS win, and a higher W/L ratio.

The committee has used that logic in past years to exclude a team or two from making the field/cut, so if they are consistent, that additional FCS win is also an edge for JMU over Weber.

Our best win is against a rapidly failing Villanova, only one other team is even ranked that we beat (towson). WVU is 3-5 and isnt too far from us in the Sagarin rankings. Meanwhile Weber lost by 6 to San diego st who is ranked 24th in the nation. They will have top ten wins over UNI (#5) sac st (#8) montana (currently 6 but if weber wins will probably still be top 10) and a win over 22 UND. Weber's SOS is hands down better than ours. Not saying they are a better team them us but their resume is certainly the second best at the moment

The Sagarin and public poll numbers are in many ways irrelevant to this discussion. All that matters is the committee rankings and computed SRS.

Don’t be shocked if some of those rankings are a bit different when the SRS and committee rankings come out. Also FCS W/L record typically matters a lot to the committee - it’s why teams like Sam Houston have pulled off high seeds in the past. On that measure we are better than Weber. Which is the better team will most likely be settled on the field - hopefully OUR field.

(11-05-2019 02:06 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:46 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 12:38 PM)drewmey Wrote:  I guess I wouldn't consider one home game difference as detrimental as having to play NDSU. Hasn't exactly been a lot of teams to go through NDSU the last 8 years. I'd take a road game at Weber over a road game at Fargo. And I'd consider that a better advantage than a home game vs. an away at Weber. But to each their own.

Unless we drop to 4 we wouldnt go to Fargo so I'd rather have a game in Harrisonburg over a game in Utah. If we win out i cant see us dropping to 4

Regardless if the top four all win out, the seeds will most likely be 1 NDSU 2 Weber 3 JMU and 4 SDSU

While I won’t say that’s impossible, I also wouldn’t say likely, or even the correct seeding. I believe we should get the two seed if we win out.

In this scenario JMU has a loss to FBS WVU, while Weber has two FBS losses to San Diego St and Nevada. Sure the committee might discount/ignore FBS losses a bit, but that still gives JMU one additional FCS win, and a higher W/L ratio.

The committee has used that logic in past years to exclude a team or two from making the field/cut, so if they are consistent, that additional FCS win is also an edge for JMU over Weber.

Our best win is against a rapidly failing Villanova, only one other team is even ranked that we beat (towson). WVU is 3-5 and isnt too far from us in the Sagarin rankings. Meanwhile Weber lost by 6 to San diego st who is ranked 24th in the nation. They will have top ten wins over UNI (#5) sac st (#8) montana (currently 6 but if weber wins will probably still be top 10) and a win over 22 UND. Weber's SOS is hands down better than ours. Not saying they are a better team them us but their resume is certainly the second best at the moment

The Sagarin and public poll numbers are in many ways irrelevant to this discussion. All that matters is the committee rankings and computed SRS.

Don’t be shocked if some of those rankings are a bit different when the SRS and committee rankings come out. Also FCS W/L record typically matters a lot to the committee - it’s why teams like Sam Houston have pulled off high seeds in the past. On that measure we are better than Weber. Which is the better team will most likely be settled on the field - hopefully OUR field.

I just threw in the Sagarin ranking to kinda quiet the crowd saying losing by 7 to WVU should be something we should hang our hat on. WVU is not a good team.

Sam Houston has been pulled off of high seeds in the past because their conference sucks and they dont play anyone. Weber would be undefeated against the FCS after playing a significantly stronger schedule.

I agree that it'll be settled on the field and I believe that we will take care of business against weber no matter where the game is but in my opinion the committee will value FCS wins over ranked opponents more than an extra FCS win over an unranked team

Also, some of this seems like circular and/or insular logic. JMU isn't any good because they keep beating teams who manage to lose to other teams JMU beats. Meanwhile, the teams who lose to NDSU only lose to NDSU because they're basically Alabama with uglier uniforms and whiter players. So they must be really good if they only lose to NDSU and other teams who lose to NDSU. JMU is mediocre, however, so losing to them means you suck.

There's just so little overlap here, that this all seems like a silly argument.

(11-05-2019 02:16 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:06 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:46 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:10 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Unless we drop to 4 we wouldnt go to Fargo so I'd rather have a game in Harrisonburg over a game in Utah. If we win out i cant see us dropping to 4

Regardless if the top four all win out, the seeds will most likely be 1 NDSU 2 Weber 3 JMU and 4 SDSU

While I won’t say that’s impossible, I also wouldn’t say likely, or even the correct seeding. I believe we should get the two seed if we win out.

In this scenario JMU has a loss to FBS WVU, while Weber has two FBS losses to San Diego St and Nevada. Sure the committee might discount/ignore FBS losses a bit, but that still gives JMU one additional FCS win, and a higher W/L ratio.

The committee has used that logic in past years to exclude a team or two from making the field/cut, so if they are consistent, that additional FCS win is also an edge for JMU over Weber.

Our best win is against a rapidly failing Villanova, only one other team is even ranked that we beat (towson). WVU is 3-5 and isnt too far from us in the Sagarin rankings. Meanwhile Weber lost by 6 to San diego st who is ranked 24th in the nation. They will have top ten wins over UNI (#5) sac st (#8) montana (currently 6 but if weber wins will probably still be top 10) and a win over 22 UND. Weber's SOS is hands down better than ours. Not saying they are a better team them us but their resume is certainly the second best at the moment

The Sagarin and public poll numbers are in many ways irrelevant to this discussion. All that matters is the committee rankings and computed SRS.

Don’t be shocked if some of those rankings are a bit different when the SRS and committee rankings come out. Also FCS W/L record typically matters a lot to the committee - it’s why teams like Sam Houston have pulled off high seeds in the past. On that measure we are better than Weber. Which is the better team will most likely be settled on the field - hopefully OUR field.

I just threw in the Sagarin ranking to kinda quiet the crowd saying losing by 7 to WVU should be something we should hang our hat on. WVU is not a good team.

Sam Houston has been pulled off of high seeds in the past because their conference sucks and they dont play anyone. Weber would be undefeated against the FCS after playing a significantly stronger schedule.

I agree that it'll be settled on the field and I believe that we will take care of business against weber no matter where the game is but in my opinion the committee will value FCS wins over ranked opponents more than an extra FCS win over an unranked team

Hate the Sagarin argument since it isn’t relevant to the committee - but since you brought it up:

WVU and San Diego are almost identical : #61 vs #59

The Weber loss to Nevada (#117) is bad. That’s lower than 7 or 8 FCS teams, so ought to be looked at like an FCS loss.

JMU is Sagarin ranked #74 vs Weber at #95
JMU is also the consensus #2 in the Stats/Coaches polls.

So - if you want to rely on Sagarin and the public polls, both support JMU as the clear #2 seed.

(11-05-2019 03:28 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:16 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:06 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:46 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  While I won’t say that’s impossible, I also wouldn’t say likely, or even the correct seeding. I believe we should get the two seed if we win out.

In this scenario JMU has a loss to FBS WVU, while Weber has two FBS losses to San Diego St and Nevada. Sure the committee might discount/ignore FBS losses a bit, but that still gives JMU one additional FCS win, and a higher W/L ratio.

The committee has used that logic in past years to exclude a team or two from making the field/cut, so if they are consistent, that additional FCS win is also an edge for JMU over Weber.

Our best win is against a rapidly failing Villanova, only one other team is even ranked that we beat (towson). WVU is 3-5 and isnt too far from us in the Sagarin rankings. Meanwhile Weber lost by 6 to San diego st who is ranked 24th in the nation. They will have top ten wins over UNI (#5) sac st (#8) montana (currently 6 but if weber wins will probably still be top 10) and a win over 22 UND. Weber's SOS is hands down better than ours. Not saying they are a better team them us but their resume is certainly the second best at the moment

The Sagarin and public poll numbers are in many ways irrelevant to this discussion. All that matters is the committee rankings and computed SRS.

Don’t be shocked if some of those rankings are a bit different when the SRS and committee rankings come out. Also FCS W/L record typically matters a lot to the committee - it’s why teams like Sam Houston have pulled off high seeds in the past. On that measure we are better than Weber. Which is the better team will most likely be settled on the field - hopefully OUR field.

I just threw in the Sagarin ranking to kinda quiet the crowd saying losing by 7 to WVU should be something we should hang our hat on. WVU is not a good team.

Sam Houston has been pulled off of high seeds in the past because their conference sucks and they dont play anyone. Weber would be undefeated against the FCS after playing a significantly stronger schedule.

I agree that it'll be settled on the field and I believe that we will take care of business against weber no matter where the game is but in my opinion the committee will value FCS wins over ranked opponents more than an extra FCS win over an unranked team

Hate the Sagarin argument since it isn’t relevant to the committee - but since you brought it up:

WVU and San Diego are almost identical : #61 vs #59

The Weber loss to Nevada (#117) is bad. That’s lower than 7 or 8 FCS teams, so ought to be looked at like an FCS loss.

JMU is Sagarin ranked #74 vs Weber at #95
JMU is also the consensus #2 in the Stats/Coaches polls.

So - if you want to rely on Sagarin and the public polls, both support JMU as the clear #2 seed.

FBS loses are thrown out anyway so the Nevada game doesnt matter but a 6 point loss #24 San diego looks a lot better now and more so if they keep winning. Again I brought up Sagarin in regards to west virginia not being good rather than the playoffs like you think i did. Those rankings seem to factor in previous years results. I think we are better than 74 and WVU is worse than 61

The bottom line is Weber has played and beaten more ranked teams and has the potential to end the year with 3 top 10 wins. JMU's schedule is no where near that thanks to the CAA eating itself alive. That resume is objectively better than JMU's

So I am not relying on Sagarin or public polls like you seem to think i am. I'm relying on wins and wins versus quality opponents

(11-05-2019 03:42 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 03:28 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:16 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:06 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Our best win is against a rapidly failing Villanova, only one other team is even ranked that we beat (towson). WVU is 3-5 and isnt too far from us in the Sagarin rankings. Meanwhile Weber lost by 6 to San diego st who is ranked 24th in the nation. They will have top ten wins over UNI (#5) sac st (#8) montana (currently 6 but if weber wins will probably still be top 10) and a win over 22 UND. Weber's SOS is hands down better than ours. Not saying they are a better team them us but their resume is certainly the second best at the moment

The Sagarin and public poll numbers are in many ways irrelevant to this discussion. All that matters is the committee rankings and computed SRS.

Don’t be shocked if some of those rankings are a bit different when the SRS and committee rankings come out. Also FCS W/L record typically matters a lot to the committee - it’s why teams like Sam Houston have pulled off high seeds in the past. On that measure we are better than Weber. Which is the better team will most likely be settled on the field - hopefully OUR field.

I just threw in the Sagarin ranking to kinda quiet the crowd saying losing by 7 to WVU should be something we should hang our hat on. WVU is not a good team.

Sam Houston has been pulled off of high seeds in the past because their conference sucks and they dont play anyone. Weber would be undefeated against the FCS after playing a significantly stronger schedule.

I agree that it'll be settled on the field and I believe that we will take care of business against weber no matter where the game is but in my opinion the committee will value FCS wins over ranked opponents more than an extra FCS win over an unranked team

Hate the Sagarin argument since it isn’t relevant to the committee - but since you brought it up:

WVU and San Diego are almost identical : #61 vs #59

The Weber loss to Nevada (#117) is bad. That’s lower than 7 or 8 FCS teams, so ought to be looked at like an FCS loss.

JMU is Sagarin ranked #74 vs Weber at #95
JMU is also the consensus #2 in the Stats/Coaches polls.

So - if you want to rely on Sagarin and the public polls, both support JMU as the clear #2 seed.

FBS loses are thrown out anyway so the Nevada game doesnt matter but a 6 point loss #24 San diego looks a lot better now and more so if they keep winning. Again I brought up Sagarin in regards to west virginia not being good rather than the playoffs like you think i did. Those rankings seem to factor in previous years results. I think we are better than 74 and WVU is worse than 61

The bottom line is Weber has played and beaten more ranked teams and has the potential to end the year with 3 top 10 wins. JMU's schedule is no where near that thanks to the CAA eating itself alive. That resume is objectively better than JMU's

So I am not relying on Sagarin or public polls like you seem to think i am. I'm relying on wins and wins versus quality opponents

Sorry, but you are contradicting yourself. You are using the public polls to define the “ranked” teams that supposedly give Weber a better resume, the same rankings that rate JMU above Weber. It is illogical to selectively rely on those rankings.

I feel the public poll rankings are a bit off for some teams because it is basically slot voting that carries over from last year. IMO some of the CAA teams like Nova are underrated compared to others in the top 25 with the same FCS record.

(11-05-2019 03:28 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:16 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:06 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:01 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 01:46 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  While I won’t say that’s impossible, I also wouldn’t say likely, or even the correct seeding. I believe we should get the two seed if we win out.

In this scenario JMU has a loss to FBS WVU, while Weber has two FBS losses to San Diego St and Nevada. Sure the committee might discount/ignore FBS losses a bit, but that still gives JMU one additional FCS win, and a higher W/L ratio.

The committee has used that logic in past years to exclude a team or two from making the field/cut, so if they are consistent, that additional FCS win is also an edge for JMU over Weber.

Our best win is against a rapidly failing Villanova, only one other team is even ranked that we beat (towson). WVU is 3-5 and isnt too far from us in the Sagarin rankings. Meanwhile Weber lost by 6 to San diego st who is ranked 24th in the nation. They will have top ten wins over UNI (#5) sac st (#8) montana (currently 6 but if weber wins will probably still be top 10) and a win over 22 UND. Weber's SOS is hands down better than ours. Not saying they are a better team them us but their resume is certainly the second best at the moment

The Sagarin and public poll numbers are in many ways irrelevant to this discussion. All that matters is the committee rankings and computed SRS.

Don’t be shocked if some of those rankings are a bit different when the SRS and committee rankings come out. Also FCS W/L record typically matters a lot to the committee - it’s why teams like Sam Houston have pulled off high seeds in the past. On that measure we are better than Weber. Which is the better team will most likely be settled on the field - hopefully OUR field.

I just threw in the Sagarin ranking to kinda quiet the crowd saying losing by 7 to WVU should be something we should hang our hat on. WVU is not a good team.

Sam Houston has been pulled off of high seeds in the past because their conference sucks and they dont play anyone. Weber would be undefeated against the FCS after playing a significantly stronger schedule.

I agree that it'll be settled on the field and I believe that we will take care of business against weber no matter where the game is but in my opinion the committee will value FCS wins over ranked opponents more than an extra FCS win over an unranked team

Hate the Sagarin argument since it isn’t relevant to the committee - but since you brought it up:

WVU and San Diego are almost identical : #61 vs #59

The Weber loss to Nevada (#117) is bad. That’s lower than 7 or 8 FCS teams, so ought to be looked at like an FCS loss.

JMU is Sagarin ranked #74 vs Weber at #95
JMU is also the consensus #2 in the Stats/Coaches polls.

So - if you want to rely on Sagarin and the public polls, both support JMU as the clear #2 seed.

Yup. Also, this is a little rambling here, but those "big" wins in conference (Sac. St./potentially Montana) appear bigger because there is massive separation between the top 3-4 in the Big Sky and everyone else in that conference who is terrible. The "name/history" of EWU made people overvalue wins over a bad Eagles team. But I think most thoughtful observers would say Elon/URI/WM (all on JMU's slate from the CAA bottom) for example are significantly better than Southern Utah, Cal Poly, and Idaho St. (all on Weber's slate from the BSC bottom).

More than anything, I think if JMU wins out, the Dukes will benefit from being the Dukes and everything that means in the minds of non-BigSky committee members (CAA history, JMU history, #2 all year with only a 7-pt. loss to a P5). And besides, Weber still has to go to UM. Plus JMU and Weber would have to win multiple playoff games to even make it matter. And that's in a year when some of the FCS's real strength may actually be out west.

(11-05-2019 03:51 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 03:42 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 03:28 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:16 PM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-05-2019 02:06 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  The Sagarin and public poll numbers are in many ways irrelevant to this discussion. All that matters is the committee rankings and computed SRS.

Don’t be shocked if some of those rankings are a bit different when the SRS and committee rankings come out. Also FCS W/L record typically matters a lot to the committee - it’s why teams like Sam Houston have pulled off high seeds in the past. On that measure we are better than Weber. Which is the better team will most likely be settled on the field - hopefully OUR field.

I just threw in the Sagarin ranking to kinda quiet the crowd saying losing by 7 to WVU should be something we should hang our hat on. WVU is not a good team.

Sam Houston has been pulled off of high seeds in the past because their conference sucks and they dont play anyone. Weber would be undefeated against the FCS after playing a significantly stronger schedule.

I agree that it'll be settled on the field and I believe that we will take care of business against weber no matter where the game is but in my opinion the committee will value FCS wins over ranked opponents more than an extra FCS win over an unranked team

Hate the Sagarin argument since it isn’t relevant to the committee - but since you brought it up:

WVU and San Diego are almost identical : #61 vs #59

The Weber loss to Nevada (#117) is bad. That’s lower than 7 or 8 FCS teams, so ought to be looked at like an FCS loss.

JMU is Sagarin ranked #74 vs Weber at #95
JMU is also the consensus #2 in the Stats/Coaches polls.

So - if you want to rely on Sagarin and the public polls, both support JMU as the clear #2 seed.

FBS loses are thrown out anyway so the Nevada game doesnt matter but a 6 point loss #24 San diego looks a lot better now and more so if they keep winning. Again I brought up Sagarin in regards to west virginia not being good rather than the playoffs like you think i did. Those rankings seem to factor in previous years results. I think we are better than 74 and WVU is worse than 61

The bottom line is Weber has played and beaten more ranked teams and has the potential to end the year with 3 top 10 wins. JMU's schedule is no where near that thanks to the CAA eating itself alive. That resume is objectively better than JMU's

So I am not relying on Sagarin or public polls like you seem to think i am. I'm relying on wins and wins versus quality opponents

Sorry, but you are contradicting yourself. You are using the public polls to define the “ranked” teams that supposedly give Weber a better resume, the same rankings that rate JMU above Weber. It is illogical to selectively rely on those rankings.

I feel the public poll rankings are a bit off for some teams because it is basically slot voting that carries over from last year. IMO some of the CAA teams like Nova are underrated compared to others in the top 25 with the same FCS record.

It's not contradicting to say that wins over Sac st, UNI and Montana are better than wins over Nova/ SBU/ Towson. Our three best wins may not even make the playoffs while their three best wins are in the conversation for seeds. You can nitpick my posts all you want but to not see that Weber has an as good or better claim to the 2 seed is ignorant. Take your purple glasses off the committee is going to use those same polls to determine wins over ranked opponents as well as the SRS which isnt out yet. Its not like were talking about "oh JMU beat a 7 and weber beat a 6". JMU is beating teams that arent even ranked top 20 in any poll aside from nova

Again I think JMU is still the better team but if the committee decides that us and weber are both deserving of the 2 seed they are going to go with the team with the better resume

"Sagarin ratings don't matter" is factual, but misleading, especially at a time when the NCAA SRS isn't published and the Sagarin is. Both are calculated similarly with inputs for record, strength of schedule, location of games and margins of victory.

I think the W-L record matters more than SRS. I also think committee members also have a reason to not rely on a computer rating; in that if we just go off the computer rating, their jobs become obsolete. I also think they lose track of common sense (i.e., not seeding JMU cause we lost to an All-America led UNH team that was beat by Colgate 2 months prior without the All-American QB).

I will NOT be surprised if NCAA SRS and/or Sagarin have SDSU ranked higher than JMU if both win out. SDSU will have better losses and victories. The extra loss for them is probably negated by the fact it is 2 top 40 teams. The rankings are already close despite having the second loss. When they finish out with wins over #103, #137 and #158, while we finish with #138, #159 and Rhode Island in the 180s; the rankings will flip.

SDSU - L #25 Minnesota
SDSU - L #37 NDSU
JMU - L #61 WVU
SDSU - W #103 N. Iowa
SDSU - W #126 Ill. State
JMU - W #131 Nova
JMU - W #133 Towson
SDSU - W #134 S. Ill
SDSU - W #137 YSU
JMU - W #138 UNH
JMU - W #142 Elon
SDSU - W #159 S. Dakota
JMU - W #165 Richmond

(11-05-2019 04:47 PM)DoubleDogDare Wrote:  "Sagarin ratings don't matter" is factual, but misleading, especially at a time when the NCAA SRS isn't published and the Sagarin is. Both are calculated similarly with inputs for record, strength of schedule, location of games and margins of victory.

Disagree that the SRS will mirror the Sagarin. They are built with different algorithms and the results will vary at least somewhat. Sagarin for instance often places some weight on prior year results, SRS does not.

While irrelevant, JMU is currently #2 with a wide margin over Weber in the Sagarin, so I don’t see them leapfrogging JMU there. And if SDSU somehow magically is higher, it won’t matter because of their FCS loss.

All of this presumes these teams win out. It’s quite possible Montana will beat Weber. I actually believe Montana may be stronger this year, so will be watching that game with interest.

Look at the FBS rankings that came out last night. Alabama is 3 and clemson is 5 because they havent played anyone yet. Ohio st has only played 2 ranked teams but everyone else has been a complete blowout.

The committee values who you play and how you win. And yes there is a small chance if SDSU wins out they could possibly be ranked ahead of us since everyone treats a loss to NDSU as an FBS loss basically and they will have to go through two top 10 teams to end the season.

Really curious what the initial rankings tonight are going to say

(11-06-2019 07:21 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Look at the FBS rankings that came out last night. Alabama is 3 and clemson is 5 because they havent played anyone yet. Ohio st has only played 2 ranked teams but everyone else has been a complete blowout.

The committee values who you play and how you win. And yes there is a small chance if SDSU wins out they could possibly be ranked ahead of us since everyone treats a loss to NDSU as an FBS loss basically and they will have to go through two top 10 teams to end the season.

Really curious what the initial rankings tonight are going to say

I wouldn't mind the committee putting us at #3 tonight - use it as fire to come out like hell on Saturday and leave no doubt.

(11-06-2019 07:21 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Look at the FBS rankings that came out last night. Alabama is 3 and clemson is 5 because they havent played anyone yet. Ohio st has only played 2 ranked teams but everyone else has been a complete blowout.

The committee values who you play and how you win. And yes there is a small chance if SDSU wins out they could possibly be ranked ahead of us since everyone treats a loss to NDSU as an FBS loss basically and they will have to go through two top 10 teams to end the season.

Really curious what the initial rankings tonight are going to say

It’s a different committee, and not even the same FCS committee it was a few years ago. While we want to think it should be predictable, in many ways it isn’t because it comes down to votes of 10 ADs that can be influenced by many things.

However - In no sane world will an FCS undefeated JMU be seeded below SDSU, that’s nonsense. Even Weber would be a screw job, as basically every ranking/rating and pundit has us at #2

(11-06-2019 07:55 AM)JMUrcc06 Wrote:  I wouldn't mind the committee putting us at #3 tonight - use it as fire to come out like hell on Saturday and leave no doubt.

Good point, feeling somewhat slighted ticks you off and provides a little bit more motivation.

(11-06-2019 08:45 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 07:21 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Look at the FBS rankings that came out last night. Alabama is 3 and clemson is 5 because they havent played anyone yet. Ohio st has only played 2 ranked teams but everyone else has been a complete blowout.

The committee values who you play and how you win. And yes there is a small chance if SDSU wins out they could possibly be ranked ahead of us since everyone treats a loss to NDSU as an FBS loss basically and they will have to go through two top 10 teams to end the season.

Really curious what the initial rankings tonight are going to say

It’s a different committee, and not even the same FCS committee it was a few years ago. While we want to think it should be predictable, in many ways it isn’t because it comes down to votes of 10 ADs that can be influenced by many things.

However - In no sane world will an FCS undefeated JMU be seeded below SDSU, that’s nonsense. Even Weber would be a screw job, as basically every ranking/rating and pundit has us at #2

Dude we all know its a different committee but its important to note that it matters who you play and any committee takes that into account. To bring up a team you mentioned earlier - Sam Houston. They were number 1 all year and when the committee seeded them they put them at 5 i believe right behind us. Why? because their SOS was crap. Now JMU plays in the CAA which is historically a better conference so i dont see a 4 spot drop from 1 to 5 like SHSU by the playoff committee but a drop from 2 to 3 is completely reasonable

Let's look at it from another perspective. Aside from JMU being ranked #2 to start the season, what have we done to prove that we are the second best team? Now I do believe we are the second best team but say we started the season at 4, do you think we'd be number 2 in all the polls right now? We havent done anything to drop in the polls but I really think if we didnt start the season at 2 we'd probably be ranked 3rd at the moment just based on the results this year

If you read my post again, I said there is a small chance SDSU is ranked ahead of us at the end of the year. Not that it's likely but i wouldnt be completely surprised based on remaining schedules if it happened. Weber being above us would absolutely not be a screw job. If you can look at it from an objective point of view you can see how us being anywhere from 2-4 is possible.

(11-06-2019 09:01 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 08:45 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 07:21 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Look at the FBS rankings that came out last night. Alabama is 3 and clemson is 5 because they havent played anyone yet. Ohio st has only played 2 ranked teams but everyone else has been a complete blowout.

The committee values who you play and how you win. And yes there is a small chance if SDSU wins out they could possibly be ranked ahead of us since everyone treats a loss to NDSU as an FBS loss basically and they will have to go through two top 10 teams to end the season.

Really curious what the initial rankings tonight are going to say

It’s a different committee, and not even the same FCS committee it was a few years ago. While we want to think it should be predictable, in many ways it isn’t because it comes down to votes of 10 ADs that can be influenced by many things.

However - In no sane world will an FCS undefeated JMU be seeded below SDSU, that’s nonsense. Even Weber would be a screw job, as basically every ranking/rating and pundit has us at #2

Dude we all know its a different committee but its important to note that it matters who you play and any committee takes that into account. To bring up a team you mentioned earlier - Sam Houston. They were number 1 all year and when the committee seeded them they put them at 5 i believe right behind us. Why? because their SOS was crap. Now JMU plays in the CAA which is historically a better conference so i dont see a 4 spot drop from 1 to 5 like SHSU by the playoff committee but a drop from 2 to 3 is completely reasonable

Let's look at it from another perspective. Aside from JMU being ranked #2 to start the season, what have we done to prove that we are the second best team? Now I do believe we are the second best team but say we started the season at 4, do you think we'd be number 2 in all the polls right now? We havent done anything to drop in the polls but I really think if we didnt start the season at 2 we'd probably be ranked 3rd at the moment just based on the results this year

If you read my post again, I said there is a small chance SDSU is ranked ahead of us at the end of the year. Not that it's likely but i wouldnt be completely surprised based on remaining schedules if it happened. Weber being above us would absolutely not be a screw job. If you can look at it from an objective point of view you can see how us being anywhere from 2-4 is possible.

While I smell what you're cooking, I think if we are the only team East of the Mississippi that is seeded, I think we keep the #2 in a close-call situation. The NCAA will do a cost benefit analysis and realize having all the seeded teams out west would cost them more in travel costs.

(11-06-2019 09:27 AM)JMU_71 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 09:01 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 08:45 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 07:21 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Look at the FBS rankings that came out last night. Alabama is 3 and clemson is 5 because they havent played anyone yet. Ohio st has only played 2 ranked teams but everyone else has been a complete blowout.

The committee values who you play and how you win. And yes there is a small chance if SDSU wins out they could possibly be ranked ahead of us since everyone treats a loss to NDSU as an FBS loss basically and they will have to go through two top 10 teams to end the season.

Really curious what the initial rankings tonight are going to say

It’s a different committee, and not even the same FCS committee it was a few years ago. While we want to think it should be predictable, in many ways it isn’t because it comes down to votes of 10 ADs that can be influenced by many things.

However - In no sane world will an FCS undefeated JMU be seeded below SDSU, that’s nonsense. Even Weber would be a screw job, as basically every ranking/rating and pundit has us at #2

Dude we all know its a different committee but its important to note that it matters who you play and any committee takes that into account. To bring up a team you mentioned earlier - Sam Houston. They were number 1 all year and when the committee seeded them they put them at 5 i believe right behind us. Why? because their SOS was crap. Now JMU plays in the CAA which is historically a better conference so i dont see a 4 spot drop from 1 to 5 like SHSU by the playoff committee but a drop from 2 to 3 is completely reasonable

Let's look at it from another perspective. Aside from JMU being ranked #2 to start the season, what have we done to prove that we are the second best team? Now I do believe we are the second best team but say we started the season at 4, do you think we'd be number 2 in all the polls right now? We havent done anything to drop in the polls but I really think if we didnt start the season at 2 we'd probably be ranked 3rd at the moment just based on the results this year

If you read my post again, I said there is a small chance SDSU is ranked ahead of us at the end of the year. Not that it's likely but i wouldnt be completely surprised based on remaining schedules if it happened. Weber being above us would absolutely not be a screw job. If you can look at it from an objective point of view you can see how us being anywhere from 2-4 is possible.

While I smell what you're cooking, I think if we are the only team East of the Mississippi that is seeded, I think we keep the #2 in a close-call situation. The NCAA will do a cost benefit analysis and realize having all the seeded teams out west would cost them more in travel costs.

It's looking like we are going to be the only team east of the Mississippi seeded anyway so there isnt any difference in travel costs whether we fly to utah or they fly to us in the semifinals.

(11-06-2019 11:07 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 09:27 AM)JMU_71 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 09:01 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 08:45 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  

(11-06-2019 07:21 AM)fishingduke12 Wrote:  Look at the FBS rankings that came out last night. Alabama is 3 and clemson is 5 because they havent played anyone yet. Ohio st has only played 2 ranked teams but everyone else has been a complete blowout.

The committee values who you play and how you win. And yes there is a small chance if SDSU wins out they could possibly be ranked ahead of us since everyone treats a loss to NDSU as an FBS loss basically and they will have to go through two top 10 teams to end the season.

Really curious what the initial rankings tonight are going to say

It’s a different committee, and not even the same FCS committee it was a few years ago. While we want to think it should be predictable, in many ways it isn’t because it comes down to votes of 10 ADs that can be influenced by many things.

However - In no sane world will an FCS undefeated JMU be seeded below SDSU, that’s nonsense. Even Weber would be a screw job, as basically every ranking/rating and pundit has us at #2

Dude we all know its a different committee but its important to note that it matters who you play and any committee takes that into account. To bring up a team you mentioned earlier - Sam Houston. They were number 1 all year and when the committee seeded them they put them at 5 i believe right behind us. Why? because their SOS was crap. Now JMU plays in the CAA which is historically a better conference so i dont see a 4 spot drop from 1 to 5 like SHSU by the playoff committee but a drop from 2 to 3 is completely reasonable

Let's look at it from another perspective. Aside from JMU being ranked #2 to start the season, what have we done to prove that we are the second best team? Now I do believe we are the second best team but say we started the season at 4, do you think we'd be number 2 in all the polls right now? We havent done anything to drop in the polls but I really think if we didnt start the season at 2 we'd probably be ranked 3rd at the moment just based on the results this year

If you read my post again, I said there is a small chance SDSU is ranked ahead of us at the end of the year. Not that it's likely but i wouldnt be completely surprised based on remaining schedules if it happened. Weber being above us would absolutely not be a screw job. If you can look at it from an objective point of view you can see how us being anywhere from 2-4 is possible.

While I smell what you're cooking, I think if we are the only team East of the Mississippi that is seeded, I think we keep the #2 in a close-call situation. The NCAA will do a cost benefit analysis and realize having all the seeded teams out west would cost them more in travel costs.

It's looking like we are going to be the only team east of the Mississippi seeded anyway so there isnt any difference in travel costs whether we fly to utah or they fly to us in the semifinals.

I'd be very surprised if we were not #2 tonight, as we were last year when the preliminary rankings come out. You might be right, but I'm 90% sure you are not.