slhNavy91
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RE: G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
(11-08-2019 03:01 PM)esayem Wrote: (11-08-2019 02:03 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (11-08-2019 08:41 AM)esayem Wrote: (11-07-2019 10:46 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote: (11-07-2019 10:38 PM)esayem Wrote: A 2 loss AAC will not get in over a 1 loss Boise. It’s Boise, of Statue of Liberty fame. They will jump any 2 loss AAC. Although, I don’t think they get in over a 1 loss AAC.
You're just wrong.
Any number of 2-loss AAC champs will have multiple quality wins better than Boise's (best case) two wins above the FBS median, and losses better than Boise's loss to .500 BYU.
Those are the things the committee looks at. Theyve said so, out loud and in public.
If Boise's statue of liberty 12 years ago meant jack squat, they wouldn't ALREADY be behind multiple AAC teams
No, you’re just wrong. They’re already in position to leapfrog them. It’s not like Boise isn’t in striking position.
Look at the rankings and tell me the past doesn’t matter. Notre Dame is one spot behind a team that beat them by 30. Boise developed a giant killer name and if they win out they will be in the G5 discussion.
Of course they will be in the discussion if they win out. They're already in the CFP committee's discussion because the CFP committee ranked them, just like the CFP committee ranked two AAC teams ahead of them in the discussion and two more right behind them in the discussion.
If Boise's 12-years-out-of-date Uncle Rico glory meant what you think it does, they wouldn't be behind Memphis and Cincinnati.
Here is Boise's winning out: #51, #122, #63, and #107. Absolute best case is SDSU sneaking into the CFP Top 25 for a mwc CCG opponent.
Resume: Wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Loss to #46 BYU. Overall SoS (Massey SoS Full) 82
Now, since post #40 was obviously too many words for you, comparison of that resume to two loss AAC candidates
Wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Loss to #46 BYU. Overall SoS 82
2-loss Cincy: Wins #21, #24/#25, MC #21 UCF, MC #47 UCLA. Losses are #1 and CFP #21 (avenged) SoS 50
Wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Loss to #46 BYU. Overall SoS 82
2-loss Cincy: Wins #21,#24/25, MC #21 UCF, MC#47 UCLA. Losses #1 and #65. SoS 50
Wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Loss to #46 BYU. Overall SoS 82
2-loss Memphis: Wins #20, #24, #25, MC #69 Ole Miss. Losses to #20 (avenged in CCG) and #65. SoS 70
Wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Loss to #46 BYU. Overall SoS 82
2-loss Memphis: Wins #20, #20, #24, #25, MC #69 Ole Miss. Losses to #65 and #70. SoS 70
Wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Loss to #46 BYU. Overall SoS (sagarin) 88
2-loss Navy: Wins #20, #25, #31 (Navy's third best win = Boise's bestest win) and #42; losses to #15, #21. SoS 67
Wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Loss to #46 BYU. Overall SoS 82
2-loss Navy: Wins #15, #20, #25, #31 (Navy's fourth best win = Boise's bestest win) and #42, losses @ #21 and @ #70. SoS 67
Wins #23, #31, #61 FSU. Loss to #46 BYU. Overall SoS 82
2-loss SMU: Wins #20, #24, #40 TCU. Losses to #21, #42. SoS 61
Seven scenarios for four different two-loss AAC teams. I say every one of those resumes is better than one-loss Boise's resume. Maybe you think a couple of those second losses are really worse than Boise's loss to BYU, but zero of those are a slamdunk for Boise. In the discussion? Sure - and the committee discussion will be those quality wins.
There is hardly a margin between the teams and the “eye test” is very important to those making the decisions. Boise also has a higher FPI than anyone in the AAC except Cincy, which is by exactly .1 {1}
If Boise wins all their remaining games they will not be surpassed by anyone except if your Midshipmen somehow beat Notre Dame and win out (not very likely).
And no, the Uncle Rico moment won’t come into play until the CCG’s are through and Boise still has one loss. Then the talking heads will be playing Uncle Rico on repeat, you can bet on that!
Hmmm, PLUS if an AAC team is handed their second loss in their CCG then they are NOT a G5 champ and are eliminated. Boise has a much easier road than anyone in the AAC. {2}
All that said, I will still be pulling for UNM to beat Boise.
Also, the AAC scheduling office completely failed pitting Cincy vs. Memphis as the season finale. Somebody should be fired, or at least scolded. You have divisions! Why on earth would you schedule a cross division matchup between two better programs as the finale?!?! {3}
{1} - FPI is a predictor, not a ranker. However, you can drill down to each team and find the FPI-related "Strength of Record." ESPN's stats department built this to try to reverse engineer what the Committee meant when they kept using that phrase. (Each team's FPI page also includes a "Game Control" ranking, again reverse engineered when the Committee kept saying that a few years ago.)
Strength of Record:
Cincy #12
SMU #18
Boise #22
Mem #23
Navy #26
SDSU #29
You can also look at FPI SoS Remaining to guess if any of those Strength of Records might get better or worse:
Memphis #52
Navy #65
SMU #73
SDSU #106
Cincy #115
Boise #127
{2} All seven of those scenarios, in detail back in post #40, deliver a 2-loss AAC CHAMP.
{3} Absolutely agree with that. And the very next year after we all pointed and laughed at Boise-Fresno final week then rematched in the CCG. shaking my head.
(This post was last modified: 11-08-2019 03:29 PM by slhNavy91.)
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G5 New Year 6 Bowl Race
