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Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
Of the 6 old BCS computer ranking systems, 5 also rank conferences. Here's where the conferences stand after 10 weeks of play.

Colley:
1 - Big 10
2 - Big 12
3 - American
4 - SEC
5 - Pac-12
6 - ACC
7 - MWC
8 - S Belt
9 - CUSA
10 - Ind FBS
11 - MAC

Anderson: (does not rank independents as a separate conference)
1 - Big Ten
2 - Big 12
3 - Southeastern
4 - American Athletic
5 - Pac-12
6 - Atlantic Coast
7 - Mountain West
8 - Sun Belt
9 - Conference USA
10 - Mid-American

Sagarin: (Sagarin ranks divisions as the central mean of the strength of each team. I averaged the central mean of each division to come up with the conference rank)
1 - BIG 12
2 - SEC
3 - BIG TEN
4 - PAC-12
5 - ACC
6 - AMERICAN
7 - MWC
8 - SUN BELT
9 - MAC
10 - Indy
11 - CONF USA

Massey:
1 - Big 12
2 - SEC
3 - Pac 12
4 - Big 10
5 - ACC
6 - American
7 - Mountain West
8 - Sun Belt
9 - Ind
10 - MAC
11 - C-USA

Wolfe:
1 - Big 12
2 - Big 10
3 - SEC
4 - Amer Ath
5 - Pac 12
6 - ACC
7 - Mtn West
8 - Sun Belt
9 - MAC
10 - Conf USA
11 - DI-Indep.

Average Rank - across all 5 computer systems
1.4 - Big 12
2.2 - Big Ten
2.8 - SEC
4.4 - Pac 12
4.6 - American
5.6 - ACC
7 - Mountain West
8 - Sun Belt
9.8 - MAC
10 - Independents (not ranked in Anderson)
10 - Conf USA


Roughly 92% of OOC games have been played. Remaining OOC games scheduled before bowl season, by conference:
SEC and ACC - 14
C-USA - 5
Mountain West - 3 (2 against BYU and 1 against Army)
American - 2 (Navy vs Notre Dame and Navy vs Army)
Big 10, Pac 12, Sun Belt - 1 each (Umass, Notre Dame, and App State @ South Carolina)
Big 12 - 0
10-29-2019 09:40 AM
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CliftonAve Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
80% of the posters on this board

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(This post was last modified: 10-29-2019 09:42 AM by CliftonAve.)
10-29-2019 09:42 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
The Massey Composite is probably the best, and they have the AAC sixth, but yes, barely behind the fifth place ACC. That puts the AAC clearly in P6 territory this year.

But, the AAC has largely built this record by beating other G5 teams. The AAC has the BEST record against G5 teams of ANY conference. They are 17-1 against G5.

By comparison, the SEC is 16-6, 15-5 if you subtract out games vs the AAC, which obviously the AAC doesn't play. Only the B1G, at 20-2, is comparable to the AAC vs G5 teams.

But the AAC hasn't been that great vs P5 teams. They are 6-12 vs P5. That's actually slightly worse than last year, when the AAC went 8-13, or 2017, when the AAC went 7-11. Neither year the AAC was anywhere close to "P" level overall.

So it will be interesting to see if this is just a G5 dynasty, or whether they can beat P5 in bowl games.
10-29-2019 10:44 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
Wow, Colley really is garbage.
10-29-2019 04:06 PM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 04:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Wow, Colley really is garbage.

The problem with Colley's conference ratings is that it treats each conference as if it was 1 team. So when Wyoming beats Missouri, that's the Mountain West CONFERENCE beating the SEC, not the #34 team beating the #63 team. Colley's ranking doesn't care if the SEC opponent is Alabama or Missouri; they both count the same.
10-29-2019 04:35 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 04:35 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Wow, Colley really is garbage.

The problem with Colley's conference ratings is that it treats each conference as if it was 1 team. So when Wyoming beats Missouri, that's the Mountain West CONFERENCE beating the SEC, not the #34 team beating the #63 team. Colley's ranking doesn't care if the SEC opponent is Alabama or Missouri; they both count the same.

That seems like a terrible system. How could it possibly have been included in the BCS rankings?
10-29-2019 04:37 PM
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Post: #7
RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The Massey Composite is probably the best, and they have the AAC sixth, but yes, barely behind the fifth place ACC. That puts the AAC clearly in P6 territory this year.

But, the AAC has largely built this record by beating other G5 teams. The AAC has the BEST record against G5 teams of ANY conference. They are 17-1 against G5.

By comparison, the SEC is 16-6, 15-5 if you subtract out games vs the AAC, which obviously the AAC doesn't play. Only the B1G, at 20-2, is comparable to the AAC vs G5 teams.

But the AAC hasn't been that great vs P5 teams. They are 6-12 vs P5. That's actually slightly worse than last year, when the AAC went 8-13, or 2017, when the AAC went 7-11. Neither year the AAC was anywhere close to "P" level overall.

So it will be interesting to see if this is just a G5 dynasty, or whether they can beat P5 in bowl games.

As I started reading this thread I said oh oh. Quo is coming like a heat seeking missile to make sure everyone knows that the AAC isn't progressing. LOLOL 03-lmfao03-lmfao03-lmfao
10-29-2019 04:43 PM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
Really impressed with what the AAC has done in football and Bball. Was concerned about a drop off after the Big East, but even amid coaches getting cherry picked, the football has improved IMHO. Good being in Texas, Florida, Ohio, and Memphis is in a good recruiting spot, that helps. Temple has really done a hell of job maintaining their program.
10-29-2019 04:44 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The Massey Composite is probably the best, and they have the AAC sixth, but yes, barely behind the fifth place ACC. That puts the AAC clearly in P6 territory this year.

But, the AAC has largely built this record by beating other G5 teams. The AAC has the BEST record against G5 teams of ANY conference. They are 17-1 against G5.

By comparison, the SEC is 16-6, 15-5 if you subtract out games vs the AAC, which obviously the AAC doesn't play. Only the B1G, at 20-2, is comparable to the AAC vs G5 teams.

But the AAC hasn't been that great vs P5 teams. They are 6-12 vs P5. That's actually slightly worse than last year, when the AAC went 8-13, or 2017, when the AAC went 7-11. Neither year the AAC was anywhere close to "P" level overall.

So it will be interesting to see if this is just a G5 dynasty, or whether they can beat P5 in bowl games.

In 2017, in the final Massey Composite ranking, the AAC was closer to the #5 contract-bowl-conference than it was to the #7 mwc. In 2017 the AAC was closer to the #1 conference than it was to #9-10.
That year, and this year (as of this week, the AAC is closer to #2 than to #7 mwc) are not unusual.
At the end of 2016 season AAC was also #6, but the mwc was actually within sight - the gap from AAC to the mwc was 58% of the gap from the AAC to BigXII, but AAC was closer to the BigXII than to conferences #8-10.
At the end of the 2015 season, the AAC was #6 and closer to the #5 ACC than to the mwc or the others #7-10.
10-29-2019 04:49 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 04:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The Massey Composite is probably the best, and they have the AAC sixth, but yes, barely behind the fifth place ACC. That puts the AAC clearly in P6 territory this year.

But, the AAC has largely built this record by beating other G5 teams. The AAC has the BEST record against G5 teams of ANY conference. They are 17-1 against G5.

By comparison, the SEC is 16-6, 15-5 if you subtract out games vs the AAC, which obviously the AAC doesn't play. Only the B1G, at 20-2, is comparable to the AAC vs G5 teams.

But the AAC hasn't been that great vs P5 teams. They are 6-12 vs P5. That's actually slightly worse than last year, when the AAC went 8-13, or 2017, when the AAC went 7-11. Neither year the AAC was anywhere close to "P" level overall.

So it will be interesting to see if this is just a G5 dynasty, or whether they can beat P5 in bowl games.

In 2017, in the final Massey Composite ranking, the AAC was closer to the #5 contract-bowl-conference than it was to the #7 mwc. In 2017 the AAC was closer to the #1 conference than it was to #9-10.
That year, and this year (as of this week, the AAC is closer to #2 than to #7 mwc) are not unusual.
At the end of 2016 season AAC was also #6, but the mwc was actually within sight - the gap from AAC to the mwc was 58% of the gap from the AAC to BigXII, but AAC was closer to the BigXII than to conferences #8-10.
At the end of the 2015 season, the AAC was #6 and closer to the #5 ACC than to the mwc or the others #7-10.

Where do you get those numbers from? I go to the Massey archives link and it doesn't have conference data?
10-29-2019 06:22 PM
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 04:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Wow, Colley really is garbage.

The only reason he got in the BCS is because one of the others wouldn't drop margin of victory. They picked up this guy who had been doing it for 2 years.

His was generally the worst of the BCS group.
10-29-2019 07:37 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 07:37 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Wow, Colley really is garbage.

The only reason he got in the BCS is because one of the others wouldn't drop margin of victory. They picked up this guy who had been doing it for 2 years.

His was generally the worst of the BCS group.

Yes, Colley is nonsense. E.g., it was the only computer that had UCF as #1 in 2017. It also had Alabama #1 in 2016, even though Alabama lost to Clemson in the title game, and it also had Notre Dame #1 in 2012, even though Notre Dame lost the title game to Alabama.

It's a very screwy system.
10-29-2019 07:47 PM
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slhNavy91 Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 06:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The Massey Composite is probably the best, and they have the AAC sixth, but yes, barely behind the fifth place ACC. That puts the AAC clearly in P6 territory this year.

But, the AAC has largely built this record by beating other G5 teams. The AAC has the BEST record against G5 teams of ANY conference. They are 17-1 against G5.

By comparison, the SEC is 16-6, 15-5 if you subtract out games vs the AAC, which obviously the AAC doesn't play. Only the B1G, at 20-2, is comparable to the AAC vs G5 teams.

But the AAC hasn't been that great vs P5 teams. They are 6-12 vs P5. That's actually slightly worse than last year, when the AAC went 8-13, or 2017, when the AAC went 7-11. Neither year the AAC was anywhere close to "P" level overall.

So it will be interesting to see if this is just a G5 dynasty, or whether they can beat P5 in bowl games.

In 2017, in the final Massey Composite ranking, the AAC was closer to the #5 contract-bowl-conference than it was to the #7 mwc. In 2017 the AAC was closer to the #1 conference than it was to #9-10.
That year, and this year (as of this week, the AAC is closer to #2 than to #7 mwc) are not unusual.
At the end of 2016 season AAC was also #6, but the mwc was actually within sight - the gap from AAC to the mwc was 58% of the gap from the AAC to BigXII, but AAC was closer to the BigXII than to conferences #8-10.
At the end of the 2015 season, the AAC was #6 and closer to the #5 ACC than to the mwc or the others #7-10.

Where do you get those numbers from? I go to the Massey archives link and it doesn't have conference data?

Yeah, his new format is tough.
Under "options" on the Composite rating, "plain view" gives us the format we've been used to seeing, yellow background with the conference info at the bottom.
That view has "archives" as an option in the header...and you can get any week's composite...but that comes up in the new default look of black background in boxed table WITHOUT conference info at the bottom...and clicking "plain view" under the "options" pull down there...takes you to the CURRENT plain view.
Frustrating.

I've been meaning to ask him (email? Twitter DM?) but haven't.

I saved down the final conference rankings in a spreadsheet. Next time I have downtime on my hands (Hah!) I'll see about a shareable google sheet.

2013-2017 numbers are in this post from before the '18 season:
https://csnbbs.com/thread-853137.html

Edited to add: the links in my August 2018 post actually deliver the archived week in the plain view format, with conference data at the bottom...hmmmm, must explore...later
(This post was last modified: 10-29-2019 09:05 PM by slhNavy91.)
10-29-2019 08:43 PM
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 04:37 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:35 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Wow, Colley really is garbage.

The problem with Colley's conference ratings is that it treats each conference as if it was 1 team. So when Wyoming beats Missouri, that's the Mountain West CONFERENCE beating the SEC, not the #34 team beating the #63 team. Colley's ranking doesn't care if the SEC opponent is Alabama or Missouri; they both count the same.

That seems like a terrible system. How could it possibly have been included in the BCS rankings?

The BCS ranked teams, not conferences.

I think Colley added the conference comparisons as an afterthought. He already had the code written and just decided to apply it to a different set of data.
10-30-2019 09:49 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-29-2019 08:43 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 06:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:49 PM)slhNavy91 Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 10:44 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  The Massey Composite is probably the best, and they have the AAC sixth, but yes, barely behind the fifth place ACC. That puts the AAC clearly in P6 territory this year.

But, the AAC has largely built this record by beating other G5 teams. The AAC has the BEST record against G5 teams of ANY conference. They are 17-1 against G5.

By comparison, the SEC is 16-6, 15-5 if you subtract out games vs the AAC, which obviously the AAC doesn't play. Only the B1G, at 20-2, is comparable to the AAC vs G5 teams.

But the AAC hasn't been that great vs P5 teams. They are 6-12 vs P5. That's actually slightly worse than last year, when the AAC went 8-13, or 2017, when the AAC went 7-11. Neither year the AAC was anywhere close to "P" level overall.

So it will be interesting to see if this is just a G5 dynasty, or whether they can beat P5 in bowl games.

In 2017, in the final Massey Composite ranking, the AAC was closer to the #5 contract-bowl-conference than it was to the #7 mwc. In 2017 the AAC was closer to the #1 conference than it was to #9-10.
That year, and this year (as of this week, the AAC is closer to #2 than to #7 mwc) are not unusual.
At the end of 2016 season AAC was also #6, but the mwc was actually within sight - the gap from AAC to the mwc was 58% of the gap from the AAC to BigXII, but AAC was closer to the BigXII than to conferences #8-10.
At the end of the 2015 season, the AAC was #6 and closer to the #5 ACC than to the mwc or the others #7-10.

Where do you get those numbers from? I go to the Massey archives link and it doesn't have conference data?

Yeah, his new format is tough.

Thanks! Yes, your links seem to be working, though it's not clear how they are connected to his website, LOL.

Alright, with your data, I can address your point in the previous post. You contested my claim that in 2017 and 2018, neither year for the AAC was anywhere close to "P" level.

In 2018 ... I think we can dispense with that outright, as the AAC was actually ranked behind the MW, so unless you are saying the MW was close to "P" level, the AAC was pure "G".

In 2017 ... Among the P5, the worst was a 52. The AAC was at 67. The next closest "G" was at 84. To me, that also means "nowwhere near" Power level, as 15 is a big gap. The entire range of the P5 was just 11. But the 17 gap to the closest G5 also means the AAC was nowhere near a G either. Verdict: The AAC was a "tweener" on the field that year albeit slightly closer to P than G.

In 2016 .... the worst P5 was a 52, the AAC was at 69, the next closest G was at 78. Again, clear tweener, this time closer to G.

In 2015 .... the worst P5 was 55, the AAC was at 69, the next closest G was at 83. Tweener, right smack in the middle.

In 2014 ..... the worst P5 was 49, AAC finished 3rd among the Gs so obviously pure "G".

So looking at the AAC in the CFP era, I see two pure "G" years and three "tweener" years. Nothing ever resembling a "P".
10-30-2019 10:52 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-30-2019 09:49 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:37 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:35 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(10-29-2019 04:06 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Wow, Colley really is garbage.

The problem with Colley's conference ratings is that it treats each conference as if it was 1 team. So when Wyoming beats Missouri, that's the Mountain West CONFERENCE beating the SEC, not the #34 team beating the #63 team. Colley's ranking doesn't care if the SEC opponent is Alabama or Missouri; they both count the same.

That seems like a terrible system. How could it possibly have been included in the BCS rankings?

The BCS ranked teams, not conferences.

I think Colley added the conference comparisons as an afterthought. He already had the code written and just decided to apply it to a different set of data.

Ah, I thought he was saying that a team is rated based on how its conference does. Still, any system that puts UCF as #1 has be off. My guess was that Colley doesn't take into account SOS at all.
10-30-2019 12:18 PM
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usffan Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
Could have foreseen how this thread was going to turn out before ever opening it...

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10-30-2019 01:51 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Computer rankings love Big 12 and American Conference
(10-30-2019 01:51 PM)usffan Wrote:  Could have foreseen how this thread was going to turn out before ever opening it...

There is one basic fact about this year: The AAC, for the first time, has actually performed on the field as a "P" conference. It's only 8 games so it may not last, and it may be based on beating up G5 not P5, but all that said, that basic fact remains.
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2019 02:01 PM by quo vadis.)
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