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Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
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EvanJ Offline
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Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.
10-21-2019 01:53 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 01:53 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.

oh well. Totally deserved....

And I would say it's a by-product of the CFP. Voters know that the CFP committee doesn't just say a team was #1 start of season so they stay there thru the season. See Florida St, 2014 as a prime example.
10-21-2019 01:55 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
The drop in ranking is deserved. Other teams have gone undefeated and been far more impressive than Clemson and against stiffer competition. Pre-season #1 isn’t something a school is entitled to keep.
10-21-2019 02:03 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 01:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:53 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.

oh well. Totally deserved....

And I would say it's a by-product of the CFP. Voters know that the CFP committee doesn't just say a team was #1 start of season so they stay there thru the season. See Florida St, 2014 as a prime example.

I don't know if poll voters care about if and how they impact the BCS or CFP. I'm a Florida State fan, and they had opposite undefeated regular seasons with giant margins in 2013 and comebacks in 2014. We'll never know, but I'm not confident they would have remained Number 1 in the regular season if it was still a BCS year. In their 13 games through the ACC Championship Game, 7 including the last 4 were decided by 6 points or fewer, and a minute before halftime at Louisville they trailed 21-0 before winning 42-31. They took the lead with 3:46 left, which is about 1/16th of the game. They had a near-equal split of 4 games they never trailed, 5 games with a biggest deficit of 1 possession, and 4 games with a biggest deficit of more than 1 possession. That's before the Semifinal loss to Oregon.

(10-21-2019 02:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The drop in ranking is deserved. Other teams have gone undefeated and been far more impressive than Clemson and against stiffer competition. Pre-season #1 isn’t something a school is entitled to keep.
Their only wins by fewer than 31 are 21-20 at North Carolina and 24-10 hosting Texas A&M.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-no-3-poll says:

"The last preseason No. 1 to drop as far or farther without a loss or tie was Oklahoma in 1977. The Sooners slipped from first to fifth after opening the season with a 25-23 victory over Vanderbilt."

"One has to go all the way back to 1971 to find a similar drop to Clemson's for a preseason No. 1. Notre Dame started that season top ranked and won its first five games, slipping to No. 7 while doing so."
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2019 02:19 PM by EvanJ.)
10-21-2019 02:14 PM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Online
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
They're undefeated? I just assumed they lost because they kept falling in the polls.
10-21-2019 02:15 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 02:14 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:53 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.

oh well. Totally deserved....

And I would say it's a by-product of the CFP. Voters know that the CFP committee doesn't just say a team was #1 start of season so they stay there thru the season. See Florida St, 2014 as a prime example.

I don't know if poll voters care about if and how they impact the BCS or CFP. I'm a Florida State fan, and they had opposite undefeated regular seasons with giant margins in 2013 and comebacks in 2014. We'll never know, but I'm not confident they would have remained Number 1 in the regular season if it was still a BCS year. In their 13 games through the ACC Championship Game, 7 including the last 4 were decided by 6 points or fewer, and a minute before halftime at Louisville they trailed 21-0 before winning 42-31. They took the lead with 3:46 left, which is about 1/16th of the game. They had a near-equal split of 4 games they never trailed, 5 games with a biggest deficit of 1 possession, and 4 games with a biggest deficit of more than 1 possession. That's before the Semifinal loss to Oregon.

(10-21-2019 02:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The drop in ranking is deserved. Other teams have gone undefeated and been far more impressive than Clemson and against stiffer competition. Pre-season #1 isn’t something a school is entitled to keep.
Their only wins by fewer than 31 are 21-20 at North Carolina and 24-10 hosting Texas A&M.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-no-3-poll says:

"The last preseason No. 1 to drop as far or farther without a loss or tie was Oklahoma in 1977. The Sooners slipped from first to fifth after opening the season with a 25-23 victory over Vanderbilt."

"One has to go all the way back to 1971 to find a similar drop to Clemson's for a preseason No. 1. Notre Dame started that season top ranked and won its first five games, slipping to No. 7 while doing so."
Even when they won big so far, they've not looked great. What was the score vs Louisville mid 3rd quarter 17-3? That's not good.
10-21-2019 02:21 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 01:53 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.

I don't agree with it. IMO, Clemson should be #1 until they lose.

And, I don't think they've looked that bad. If the playoffs were next week, I'd pick them to win the title, especially with Tua injured for Alabama.
10-21-2019 04:03 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 04:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:53 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.

I don't agree with it. IMO, Clemson should be #1 until they lose.

And, I don't think they've looked that bad. If the playoffs were next week, I'd pick them to win the title, especially with Tua injured for Alabama.

lol..... Sorry, but what Clemson did in 2018 is utterly meaningless for the 2019 season...…
10-21-2019 04:06 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 04:03 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't agree with it. IMO, Clemson should be #1 until they lose.

Disagree. The worst thing about weekly polls is "stickiness", the tendency of voters to leave a team in the same place or better until they lose again, when they should be taking a fresh look every week.
10-21-2019 04:17 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 01:53 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.

If you want to take your research back further, here's a site that lists all the AP polls back to 1936.

http://www.collegepollarchive.com/index.cfm
10-21-2019 04:20 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
Packer and Durham pointed out an statistic that speaks to this issue.

As of the end of the day last Saturday October 19th, there have been 129 conference games played by teams in P5 conferences. Only 18 of those 129 games have been decided by 3 points or less.

Of those 18 games decided by 3 points or less.....
The ACC has played 8 while The SEC has played 1 And The Big Ten has only played 2.
10-21-2019 04:23 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 04:23 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Packer and Durham pointed out an statistic that speaks to this issue.

As of the end of the day last Saturday October 19th, there have been 129 conference games played by teams in P5 conferences. Only 18 of those 129 games have been decided by 3 points or less.

Of those 18 games decided by 3 points or less.....
The ACC has played 8 while The SEC has played 1 And The Big Ten has only played 2.

The ACC went 11-1 FBS vs CUSA, MAC, SBC, and non ND Independents. That's not good. 8-10 vs real opponents.
10-21-2019 04:30 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 04:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 04:23 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Packer and Durham pointed out an statistic that speaks to this issue.

As of the end of the day last Saturday October 19th, there have been 129 conference games played by teams in P5 conferences. Only 18 of those 129 games have been decided by 3 points or less.

Of those 18 games decided by 3 points or less.....
The ACC has played 8 while The SEC has played 1 And The Big Ten has only played 2.

The ACC went 11-1 FBS vs CUSA, MAC, SBC, and non ND Independents. That's not good. 8-10 vs real opponents.

The ACC also plays more P5 non conference games than any other as well as more P5 opponents on the road than The SEC or Big Ten.

In other words all non-conference schedules are not created equally. For example, the Big Ten doesn’t play FCS teams out of conference unlike SEC teams like Florida for example that played two.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...s-in-2019/
10-21-2019 05:00 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 05:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 04:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 04:23 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Packer and Durham pointed out an statistic that speaks to this issue.

As of the end of the day last Saturday October 19th, there have been 129 conference games played by teams in P5 conferences. Only 18 of those 129 games have been decided by 3 points or less.

Of those 18 games decided by 3 points or less.....
The ACC has played 8 while The SEC has played 1 And The Big Ten has only played 2.

The ACC went 11-1 FBS vs CUSA, MAC, SBC, and non ND Independents. That's not good. 8-10 vs real opponents.

The ACC also plays more P5 non conference games than any other as well as more P5 opponents on the road than The SEC or Big Ten.

In other words all non-conference schedules are not created equally. For example, the Big Ten doesn’t play FCS teams out of conference unlike SEC teams like Florida for example that played two.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...s-in-2019/

The ACC has already played 12 FCS teams.... With 3 more to go. So just stop the deflection. The ACC is by far the weakest conference in the P5.
10-21-2019 07:05 PM
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CardinalJim Offline
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 07:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 05:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 04:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 04:23 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Packer and Durham pointed out an statistic that speaks to this issue.

As of the end of the day last Saturday October 19th, there have been 129 conference games played by teams in P5 conferences. Only 18 of those 129 games have been decided by 3 points or less.

Of those 18 games decided by 3 points or less.....
The ACC has played 8 while The SEC has played 1 And The Big Ten has only played 2.

The ACC went 11-1 FBS vs CUSA, MAC, SBC, and non ND Independents. That's not good. 8-10 vs real opponents.

The ACC also plays more P5 non conference games than any other as well as more P5 opponents on the road than The SEC or Big Ten.

In other words all non-conference schedules are not created equally. For example, the Big Ten doesn’t play FCS teams out of conference unlike SEC teams like Florida for example that played two.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...s-in-2019/

The ACC has already played 12 FCS teams.... With 3 more to go. So just stop the deflection. The ACC is by far the weakest conference in the P5.

You have a personal bias against The ACC, that’s OK. Facts cause problems for some people 07-coffee3
10-21-2019 07:31 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 02:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 02:14 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:53 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.

oh well. Totally deserved....

And I would say it's a by-product of the CFP. Voters know that the CFP committee doesn't just say a team was #1 start of season so they stay there thru the season. See Florida St, 2014 as a prime example.

I don't know if poll voters care about if and how they impact the BCS or CFP. I'm a Florida State fan, and they had opposite undefeated regular seasons with giant margins in 2013 and comebacks in 2014. We'll never know, but I'm not confident they would have remained Number 1 in the regular season if it was still a BCS year. In their 13 games through the ACC Championship Game, 7 including the last 4 were decided by 6 points or fewer, and a minute before halftime at Louisville they trailed 21-0 before winning 42-31. They took the lead with 3:46 left, which is about 1/16th of the game. They had a near-equal split of 4 games they never trailed, 5 games with a biggest deficit of 1 possession, and 4 games with a biggest deficit of more than 1 possession. That's before the Semifinal loss to Oregon.

(10-21-2019 02:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The drop in ranking is deserved. Other teams have gone undefeated and been far more impressive than Clemson and against stiffer competition. Pre-season #1 isn’t something a school is entitled to keep.
Their only wins by fewer than 31 are 21-20 at North Carolina and 24-10 hosting Texas A&M.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-no-3-poll says:

"The last preseason No. 1 to drop as far or farther without a loss or tie was Oklahoma in 1977. The Sooners slipped from first to fifth after opening the season with a 25-23 victory over Vanderbilt."

"One has to go all the way back to 1971 to find a similar drop to Clemson's for a preseason No. 1. Notre Dame started that season top ranked and won its first five games, slipping to No. 7 while doing so."
Even when they won big so far, they've not looked great. What was the score vs Louisville mid 3rd quarter 17-3? That's not good.

Yet the offense is almost statistically better than the 2018 offense at the same point while the defense, despite losing five off the DL two deep, is statistically better than last year's.

The thing is the only purpose of the AP poll at this point is evidently to provide Dabo Swinney with material to motivate the team with. There's nobody ahead of us in the AP poll that we wouldn't beat.
10-21-2019 07:41 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 02:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The drop in ranking is deserved. Other teams have gone undefeated and been far more impressive than Clemson and against stiffer competition. Pre-season #1 isn’t something a school is entitled to keep.

This is the part I take exception with. In particular, it's hard to argue that Alabama has clearly played "stiffer competition".

Alabama's opponents:
Duke
New Mexico St
South Carolina
Southern Miss
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Tennessee

Clemson's opponents:
Ga Tech
Texas A&M
Syracuse
Charlotte
North Carolina
Florida State
Louisville

Texas A&M is the same.
North Carolina beat South Carolina (although Duke beat Ga Tech).
Ole Miss and Tennessee are about equal to Louisville and Florida State.
Syracuse > Southern Miss
Charlotte about equal to New Mexico State

How has Alabama played a tougher schedule? (REMEMBER: Games not yet played aren't supposed to count!)

Here are Ohio State's and LSU's schedules:

Ohio State:
FAU
Cincinnati
Indiana
Miami (OH)
Nebraska
Michigan St
Northwestern


LSU:
Georgia Southern
Texas
Northwestern St
Vanderbilt
Utah State
Florida
Mississippi St
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2019 07:50 PM by Hokie Mark.)
10-21-2019 07:44 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 07:41 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 02:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 02:14 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:53 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  The NCAA has weekly polls available going back to 1999, and in that time Clemson became the first AP Preseason Number 1 to fall to fourth or worse while undefeated.

oh well. Totally deserved....

And I would say it's a by-product of the CFP. Voters know that the CFP committee doesn't just say a team was #1 start of season so they stay there thru the season. See Florida St, 2014 as a prime example.

I don't know if poll voters care about if and how they impact the BCS or CFP. I'm a Florida State fan, and they had opposite undefeated regular seasons with giant margins in 2013 and comebacks in 2014. We'll never know, but I'm not confident they would have remained Number 1 in the regular season if it was still a BCS year. In their 13 games through the ACC Championship Game, 7 including the last 4 were decided by 6 points or fewer, and a minute before halftime at Louisville they trailed 21-0 before winning 42-31. They took the lead with 3:46 left, which is about 1/16th of the game. They had a near-equal split of 4 games they never trailed, 5 games with a biggest deficit of 1 possession, and 4 games with a biggest deficit of more than 1 possession. That's before the Semifinal loss to Oregon.

(10-21-2019 02:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The drop in ranking is deserved. Other teams have gone undefeated and been far more impressive than Clemson and against stiffer competition. Pre-season #1 isn’t something a school is entitled to keep.
Their only wins by fewer than 31 are 21-20 at North Carolina and 24-10 hosting Texas A&M.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-no-3-poll says:

"The last preseason No. 1 to drop as far or farther without a loss or tie was Oklahoma in 1977. The Sooners slipped from first to fifth after opening the season with a 25-23 victory over Vanderbilt."

"One has to go all the way back to 1971 to find a similar drop to Clemson's for a preseason No. 1. Notre Dame started that season top ranked and won its first five games, slipping to No. 7 while doing so."
Even when they won big so far, they've not looked great. What was the score vs Louisville mid 3rd quarter 17-3? That's not good.

Yet the offense is almost statistically better than the 2018 offense at the same point while the defense, despite losing five off the DL two deep, is statistically better than last year's.

The thing is the only purpose of the AP poll at this point is evidently to provide Dabo Swinney with material to motivate the team with. There's nobody ahead of us in the AP poll that we wouldn't beat.

Yes, If was was Dabo, I would be loving this. There's no actual danger of course, if Clemson wins out they will make the playoffs no matter how bad the ACC is. But in the meantime, it allows him to arouse his players with all kinds of "they're showing you no respect, it's us against the world" motivation.

It really doesn't matter if Clemson isn't as good as they were last year. All they have to be is better than anyone else this year.
(This post was last modified: 10-21-2019 07:53 PM by quo vadis.)
10-21-2019 07:49 PM
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Post: #19
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 07:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 07:41 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 02:21 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 02:14 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 01:55 PM)stever20 Wrote:  oh well. Totally deserved....

And I would say it's a by-product of the CFP. Voters know that the CFP committee doesn't just say a team was #1 start of season so they stay there thru the season. See Florida St, 2014 as a prime example.

I don't know if poll voters care about if and how they impact the BCS or CFP. I'm a Florida State fan, and they had opposite undefeated regular seasons with giant margins in 2013 and comebacks in 2014. We'll never know, but I'm not confident they would have remained Number 1 in the regular season if it was still a BCS year. In their 13 games through the ACC Championship Game, 7 including the last 4 were decided by 6 points or fewer, and a minute before halftime at Louisville they trailed 21-0 before winning 42-31. They took the lead with 3:46 left, which is about 1/16th of the game. They had a near-equal split of 4 games they never trailed, 5 games with a biggest deficit of 1 possession, and 4 games with a biggest deficit of more than 1 possession. That's before the Semifinal loss to Oregon.

(10-21-2019 02:03 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The drop in ranking is deserved. Other teams have gone undefeated and been far more impressive than Clemson and against stiffer competition. Pre-season #1 isn’t something a school is entitled to keep.
Their only wins by fewer than 31 are 21-20 at North Carolina and 24-10 hosting Texas A&M.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/st...-no-3-poll says:

"The last preseason No. 1 to drop as far or farther without a loss or tie was Oklahoma in 1977. The Sooners slipped from first to fifth after opening the season with a 25-23 victory over Vanderbilt."

"One has to go all the way back to 1971 to find a similar drop to Clemson's for a preseason No. 1. Notre Dame started that season top ranked and won its first five games, slipping to No. 7 while doing so."
Even when they won big so far, they've not looked great. What was the score vs Louisville mid 3rd quarter 17-3? That's not good.

Yet the offense is almost statistically better than the 2018 offense at the same point while the defense, despite losing five off the DL two deep, is statistically better than last year's.

The thing is the only purpose of the AP poll at this point is evidently to provide Dabo Swinney with material to motivate the team with. There's nobody ahead of us in the AP poll that we wouldn't beat.

Yes, If was was Dabo, I would be loving this. There's no actual danger of course, if Clemson wins out they will make the playoffs no matter how bad the ACC is. But in the meantime, it allows him to arouse his players with all kinds of "they're showing you no respect, it's us against the world" motivation.

It really doesn't matter if Clemson isn't as good as they were last year. All they have to be is better than anyone else this year.

not being #1 would hurt in the playoff- as they'd have to travel out to Arizona. Instead of having the quaint Atlanta to New Orleans trip....
10-21-2019 08:07 PM
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RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 07:31 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 07:05 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 05:00 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 04:30 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 04:23 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  Packer and Durham pointed out an statistic that speaks to this issue.

As of the end of the day last Saturday October 19th, there have been 129 conference games played by teams in P5 conferences. Only 18 of those 129 games have been decided by 3 points or less.

Of those 18 games decided by 3 points or less.....
The ACC has played 8 while The SEC has played 1 And The Big Ten has only played 2.

The ACC went 11-1 FBS vs CUSA, MAC, SBC, and non ND Independents. That's not good. 8-10 vs real opponents.

The ACC also plays more P5 non conference games than any other as well as more P5 opponents on the road than The SEC or Big Ten.

In other words all non-conference schedules are not created equally. For example, the Big Ten doesn’t play FCS teams out of conference unlike SEC teams like Florida for example that played two.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...s-in-2019/

The ACC has already played 12 FCS teams.... With 3 more to go. So just stop the deflection. The ACC is by far the weakest conference in the P5.

You have a personal bias against The ACC, that’s OK. Facts cause problems for some people 07-coffee3

For once I’m with Stever on this!! Wow.
ACC is just bad this year, come on CardinalJim, Big East 2010 bad.
10-21-2019 08:39 PM
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