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Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #41
Exclamation RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-22-2019 06:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 11:24 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 09:55 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 09:38 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I thought the AP was supposed to be ranking Clemson, so why does it matter if ACC teams which aren't even on the Tigers schedule are having a bad season? Michigan State is terrible this year. So is Tennessee. Yet I don't hear anyone talking about them... Clemson has played a stronger slate so far than anyone in front of them. Trying to make it about the ACC vs SEC as a whole is a cop out.
Like somebody said earlier, Clemson wins out and they are in.

You're talking strength of schedule? Michigan State is ok with their sos and teams they have lost to. Not great, but definitely not terrible.

You may want to look at the teams ahead of Clemson. I'd say LSU and Ohio State have nothing to be ashamed of.

Did Clemson deserve to drop? I really don't know? They have a very manageable schedule and the chance to shut everybody up. By the way, if your giving Texas A&M the benefit of the doubt, maybe do the same for others.

To be fair, one can argue that Ohio State has played the toughest schedule of the top four so far. However, consider these points in Clemson's favor:

1. Clemson has played 6 P5 teams - the other three have only played 4 each.
2. LSU has also played an FCS team - none of the other top 3 have played one.
3. While Clemson's opponents do have a composite losing record, it's still better than the composite record of Alabama's opponents.

Maybe Clemson ends up being the 4th-best team (or worse?), but right now there isn't any data that says they shouldn't be #1 right now (although I'll listen to an argument for #2 behind Ohio State). The teams which are ranked too high are Alabama and LSU, IMO.

So just because Clemson played Charlotte instead of a FCS team- that's supposed to overcome LSU having beaten 2 of the top 15 teams in the country.

I wasn't really denying LSU has had a good season - they have. I was specifically stating that there is no data in the world that justifies putting Alabama in front of Clemson. Whether LSU deserves to be ranked higher or not is a judgment call, IMO. Don't underestimate the advantage of a tune-up game against an FCS opponent (something Clemson hasn't had - yet everyone says they don't look finely tuned?).

Quote:And looking at Sagarin, the SOS has it as-
LSU 41
Clemson 43
Alabama 52

the problem for Clemson with that is that they've looked by far the worst of the 3.

So by your own data which you so kindly provided, Clemson and LSU are virtually tied in terms of SoS, while Alabama is 9 spots behind the CU Tigers... or pretty much what I've been saying all along.
(This post was last modified: 10-22-2019 01:24 PM by Hokie Mark.)
10-22-2019 01:23 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #42
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-22-2019 01:23 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(10-22-2019 06:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 11:24 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 09:55 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 09:38 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I thought the AP was supposed to be ranking Clemson, so why does it matter if ACC teams which aren't even on the Tigers schedule are having a bad season? Michigan State is terrible this year. So is Tennessee. Yet I don't hear anyone talking about them... Clemson has played a stronger slate so far than anyone in front of them. Trying to make it about the ACC vs SEC as a whole is a cop out.
Like somebody said earlier, Clemson wins out and they are in.

You're talking strength of schedule? Michigan State is ok with their sos and teams they have lost to. Not great, but definitely not terrible.

You may want to look at the teams ahead of Clemson. I'd say LSU and Ohio State have nothing to be ashamed of.

Did Clemson deserve to drop? I really don't know? They have a very manageable schedule and the chance to shut everybody up. By the way, if your giving Texas A&M the benefit of the doubt, maybe do the same for others.

To be fair, one can argue that Ohio State has played the toughest schedule of the top four so far. However, consider these points in Clemson's favor:

1. Clemson has played 6 P5 teams - the other three have only played 4 each.
2. LSU has also played an FCS team - none of the other top 3 have played one.
3. While Clemson's opponents do have a composite losing record, it's still better than the composite record of Alabama's opponents.

Maybe Clemson ends up being the 4th-best team (or worse?), but right now there isn't any data that says they shouldn't be #1 right now (although I'll listen to an argument for #2 behind Ohio State). The teams which are ranked too high are Alabama and LSU, IMO.

So just because Clemson played Charlotte instead of a FCS team- that's supposed to overcome LSU having beaten 2 of the top 15 teams in the country.

I wasn't really denying LSU has had a good season - they have. I was specifically stating that there is no data in the world that justifies putting Alabama in front of Clemson. Whether LSU deserves to be ranked higher or not is a judgment call, IMO. Don't underestimate the advantage of a tune-up game against an FCS opponent (something Clemson hasn't had - yet everyone says they don't look finely tuned?).

Quote:And looking at Sagarin, the SOS has it as-
LSU 41
Clemson 43
Alabama 52

the problem for Clemson with that is that they've looked by far the worst of the 3.

So by your own data which you so kindly provided, Clemson and LSU are virtually tied in terms of SoS, while Alabama is 9 spots behind the CU Tigers... or pretty much what I've been saying all along.

SOS is one thing, but Alabama has looked far better on the field than Clemson has....
10-22-2019 01:33 PM
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cubucks Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-21-2019 11:24 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 09:55 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 09:38 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I thought the AP was supposed to be ranking Clemson, so why does it matter if ACC teams which aren't even on the Tigers schedule are having a bad season? Michigan State is terrible this year. So is Tennessee. Yet I don't hear anyone talking about them... Clemson has played a stronger slate so far than anyone in front of them. Trying to make it about the ACC vs SEC as a whole is a cop out.
Like somebody said earlier, Clemson wins out and they are in.

You're talking strength of schedule? Michigan State is ok with their sos and teams they have lost to. Not great, but definitely not terrible.

You may want to look at the teams ahead of Clemson. I'd say LSU and Ohio State have nothing to be ashamed of.

Did Clemson deserve to drop? I really don't know? They have a very manageable schedule and the chance to shut everybody up. By the way, if your giving Texas A&M the benefit of the doubt, maybe do the same for others.

To be fair, one can argue that Ohio State has played the toughest schedule of the top four so far. However, consider these points in Clemson's favor:

1. Clemson has played 6 P5 teams - the other three have only played 4 each.
2. LSU has also played an FCS team - none of the other top 3 have played one.
3. While Clemson's opponents do have a composite losing record, it's still better than the composite record of Alabama's opponents.

Maybe Clemson ends up being the 4th-best team (or worse?), but right now there isn't any data that says they shouldn't be #1 right now (although I'll listen to an argument for #2 behind Ohio State). The teams which are ranked too high are Alabama and LSU, IMO.
Appreciate the level headed conversation, Hokie Mark. Makes my day when facts and not personal biases are mentioned.

Clemson is fine and will be in, just win. The real question is now turning to the 1 loss teams. That is shaping up to be a mess!
The committee has to be praying for an undefeated from the SEC, BIG, ACC and BIG 12.
10-22-2019 03:27 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-22-2019 03:27 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 11:24 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 09:55 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(10-21-2019 09:38 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  I thought the AP was supposed to be ranking Clemson, so why does it matter if ACC teams which aren't even on the Tigers schedule are having a bad season? Michigan State is terrible this year. So is Tennessee. Yet I don't hear anyone talking about them... Clemson has played a stronger slate so far than anyone in front of them. Trying to make it about the ACC vs SEC as a whole is a cop out.
Like somebody said earlier, Clemson wins out and they are in.

You're talking strength of schedule? Michigan State is ok with their sos and teams they have lost to. Not great, but definitely not terrible.

You may want to look at the teams ahead of Clemson. I'd say LSU and Ohio State have nothing to be ashamed of.

Did Clemson deserve to drop? I really don't know? They have a very manageable schedule and the chance to shut everybody up. By the way, if your giving Texas A&M the benefit of the doubt, maybe do the same for others.

To be fair, one can argue that Ohio State has played the toughest schedule of the top four so far. However, consider these points in Clemson's favor:

1. Clemson has played 6 P5 teams - the other three have only played 4 each.
2. LSU has also played an FCS team - none of the other top 3 have played one.
3. While Clemson's opponents do have a composite losing record, it's still better than the composite record of Alabama's opponents.

Maybe Clemson ends up being the 4th-best team (or worse?), but right now there isn't any data that says they shouldn't be #1 right now (although I'll listen to an argument for #2 behind Ohio State). The teams which are ranked too high are Alabama and LSU, IMO.
Appreciate the level headed conversation, Hokie Mark. Makes my day when facts and not personal biases are mentioned.

Clemson is fine and will be in, just win. The real question is now turning to the 1 loss teams. That is shaping up to be a mess!
The committee has to be praying for an undefeated from the SEC, BIG, ACC and BIG 12.

Here's hoping for 3 unbeaten P5 champs and an undefeated G5 champ just to see what happens... Oh, and toss in a lawsuit if they don't take the G5 team!

Where's the popcorn?
10-22-2019 04:27 PM
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Post: #45
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
It all means is that the voters are reevaluating their list every week like they should do. This is not the old days where you were at a certain spot till some team lost or you beat a team ranked higher than you. Clemson is not the same team as last year. They haven't played that well, they should have already lost a game already. There's more than strength of schedule, you must look at how well teams look in games. If Clemson comes out undefeated, then they will get in the playoffs.
10-22-2019 04:58 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
Clemson isn’t playing in a vacuum. 129 other FBS teams are out there playing and some of those programs are winning more convincingly than Clemson and haven’t nearly lost to UNC-caliber teams.

Conference affiliation matters. The ACC isn’t having a great year and the voters are aware of this. Winning in a deeper conference is always going to be viewed more favorably than against one with no depth
10-22-2019 06:11 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
At one point the NCAA made a rule that computers in the BCS could not use margin of victory so that teams didn't have incentive to run up the score. Voters who dropped Clemson this week and/or last week must like margins of 40+ because Clemson winning by 31 and 35 wasn't enough for those voters. If beating UNC by 1 was the problem, Clemson would have fallen to fourth then as opposed to falling to second then and falling two spots later.
10-23-2019 10:08 AM
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Post: #48
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-23-2019 10:08 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  At one point the NCAA made a rule that computers in the BCS could not use margin of victory so that teams didn't have incentive to run up the score. Voters who dropped Clemson this week and/or last week must like margins of 40+ because Clemson winning by 31 and 35 wasn't enough for those voters. If beating UNC by 1 was the problem, Clemson would have fallen to fourth then as opposed to falling to second then and falling two spots later.

Final scores aren't the only thing. Clemson was up in the 3rd quarter only 17-3 vs Louisville. A big difference between that and what LSU did with Miss St.
10-23-2019 02:40 PM
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cubucks Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-23-2019 02:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-23-2019 10:08 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  At one point the NCAA made a rule that computers in the BCS could not use margin of victory so that teams didn't have incentive to run up the score. Voters who dropped Clemson this week and/or last week must like margins of 40+ because Clemson winning by 31 and 35 wasn't enough for those voters. If beating UNC by 1 was the problem, Clemson would have fallen to fourth then as opposed to falling to second then and falling two spots later.

Final scores aren't the only thing. Clemson was up in the 3rd quarter only 17-3 vs Louisville. A big difference between that and what LSU did with Miss St.
LSU vs. MSU was 22-7 at halftime. Do you honestly think Mississippi State is good and beating them 36-13 is an accomplishment? Mississippi State lost to Louisiana for crying out loud. Do you ever take off your blinders and realize there is more to college football than in the Southeast?
10-23-2019 02:55 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #50
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-23-2019 02:55 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(10-23-2019 02:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-23-2019 10:08 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  At one point the NCAA made a rule that computers in the BCS could not use margin of victory so that teams didn't have incentive to run up the score. Voters who dropped Clemson this week and/or last week must like margins of 40+ because Clemson winning by 31 and 35 wasn't enough for those voters. If beating UNC by 1 was the problem, Clemson would have fallen to fourth then as opposed to falling to second then and falling two spots later.

Final scores aren't the only thing. Clemson was up in the 3rd quarter only 17-3 vs Louisville. A big difference between that and what LSU did with Miss St.
LSU vs. MSU was 22-7 at halftime. Do you honestly think Mississippi State is good and beating them 36-13 is an accomplishment? Mississippi State lost to Louisiana for crying out loud. Do you ever take off your blinders and realize there is more to college football than in the Southeast?

I think 36-7 vs 24-3 is a difference to the voters. And that's what it was at the end of the 3rd...

And also with LSU having wins over Texas and Florida- that ship has sailed. Going to be pretty close to impossible for Clemson to overtake LSU.

And the problem for Clemson isn't really the SEC schools...

Ohio St- lead Northwestern 31-3 at halftime
Oklahoma- lead 28-14 at halftime and 49-14 after 3

Clemson got passed by.... Ohio St.
10-23-2019 03:11 PM
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cubucks Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-23-2019 03:11 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-23-2019 02:55 PM)cubucks Wrote:  
(10-23-2019 02:40 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(10-23-2019 10:08 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  At one point the NCAA made a rule that computers in the BCS could not use margin of victory so that teams didn't have incentive to run up the score. Voters who dropped Clemson this week and/or last week must like margins of 40+ because Clemson winning by 31 and 35 wasn't enough for those voters. If beating UNC by 1 was the problem, Clemson would have fallen to fourth then as opposed to falling to second then and falling two spots later.

Final scores aren't the only thing. Clemson was up in the 3rd quarter only 17-3 vs Louisville. A big difference between that and what LSU did with Miss St.
LSU vs. MSU was 22-7 at halftime. Do you honestly think Mississippi State is good and beating them 36-13 is an accomplishment? Mississippi State lost to Louisiana for crying out loud. Do you ever take off your blinders and realize there is more to college football than in the Southeast?

I think 36-7 vs 24-3 is a difference to the voters. And that's what it was at the end of the 3rd...

And also with LSU having wins over Texas and Florida- that ship has sailed. Going to be pretty close to impossible for Clemson to overtake LSU.

And the problem for Clemson isn't really the SEC schools...

Ohio St- lead Northwestern 31-3 at halftime
Oklahoma- lead 28-14 at halftime and 49-14 after 3

Clemson got passed by.... Ohio St.
I'm not saying a word about Ohio State, lol!

Good points and all I was saying is a victory over Mississippi State is no legit measuring stick. LSU deserves their ranking and they are as solid as anybody.
10-23-2019 03:38 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
Surely based upon precedent set earlier in the season and confirmed by our resident expert stever Ohio State should drop in the AP rankings since they struggled for a portion of their game with Wisconsin. The AP and our resident expert stever wouldn’t have double standards would they?
10-27-2019 02:32 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-22-2019 09:12 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Several teams right now could lose a game and still have a great chance of making the playoff....

Clemson on the other hand, wouldn't. If Clemson loses a game, they have pretty much no chance of making the playoff. Any loss Clemson takes would be an awful loss- one of the worst on the board of any potential playoff team.

Hopefully Clemson trips so we can get them out of here for a change. But if they run the table, we could be looking at an interesting scenario:

1. LSU/Fla/UGa 13-0/12-1/12-1
2. OSU 13-0 or 12-1 conference champ
3. Clemson 13-0

Then comes down to:

Bama 11-1 (loss home vsLSU)
PSU 11-1 (loss@OSU)
OU 12-1 Big 12 Champ
Oregon 12-1 PAC Champ

I’m not sure PSU doesn’t get the final spot in this scenario. Bama shouldn’t get in with a home loss to Burrow and Co. over one loss PSU.
10-27-2019 04:56 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-27-2019 04:56 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(10-22-2019 09:12 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Several teams right now could lose a game and still have a great chance of making the playoff....

Clemson on the other hand, wouldn't. If Clemson loses a game, they have pretty much no chance of making the playoff. Any loss Clemson takes would be an awful loss- one of the worst on the board of any potential playoff team.

Hopefully Clemson trips so we can get them out of here for a change. But if they run the table, we could be looking at an interesting scenario:

1. LSU/Fla/UGa 13-0/12-1/12-1
2. OSU 13-0 or 12-1 conference champ
3. Clemson 13-0

Then comes down to:

Bama 11-1 (loss home vsLSU)
PSU 11-1 (loss@OSU)
OU 12-1 Big 12 Champ
Oregon 12-1 PAC Champ

I’m not sure PSU doesn’t get the final spot in this scenario. Bama shouldn’t get in with a home loss to Burrow and Co. over one loss PSU.

Alabama shouldn't be ranked ahead of LSU and Ohio State now -- but they ARE.
10-27-2019 05:20 AM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Clemson is the First 2000s-2010s AP Preseason Number 1 to Fourth While Undefeated
(10-27-2019 05:20 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Alabama shouldn't be ranked ahead of LSU and Ohio State now -- but they ARE.
Not anymore. LSU moved up to Number 1. That means that for three consecutive weeks an undefeated team who was Number 1 at some point won by at least 31 and fell! I wonder the last season (if ever) two undefeated teams fell from Number 1.

Edit: I'm talking about the AP Poll. The polls are way off from each other. The AP Poll has LSU with 1,476, Alabama with 1,474, and Ohio State with 1,468. The Coaches Poll has Alabama by 78 points. Clemson continued to fall. They won by their season-high of 52, but fell farther behind Number 3 in the AP Poll and fell from 2 to 3 in the Coaches Poll.

Edit Again: I wonder when the last time (if ever) a team has been Number 1 by over 1 point per voter in one poll and not Number 1 in the other poll.
(This post was last modified: 10-28-2019 07:38 AM by EvanJ.)
10-28-2019 07:06 AM
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