1. #AAC-SMU 7-0......................893.....+56/up 1
2. #SBC-Appalachian State 6-0...816.....+18/up 1
3. #MWC-Boise State 6-1...........703.....-226/dn 2
4. #AAC-Cincinnati 6-1...............658.....+63/even
5. AAC-Memphis 6-1................597.....+46/up 1
6. AAC-Central Florida 5-2........555......-28/dn 1
7. #MWC-San Diego State 6-1....440....+146/up 2
8. AAC-Navy 5-1.....................344....+177/up 5
9. MWC-Air Force 5-2...............342.....+62/up 1
10. AAC-Tulane 5-2...................272......-97/dn 3
11. MWC-Hawaii 4-3.................202.......+8/even
12. MWC-Utah State 4-2...........200......+62/up 2
13. AAC-Temple 5-2..................184.....-119/dn 5
14. #CUSA-LA Tech 6-1...............164......+51/up 1
15. MWC-Wyoming 5-2..............144......-36/dn 3
16. #SBC-Louisiana 5-2.................82.....+44/up 4
17. SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-4.......80.....+36/up 2
18. SBC-Georgia State 5-2..........76.......+8/dn 2
19. MWC-Nevada 4-3..................66.....+10/dn 2
20. MWC-Fresno State 3-3...........60.....+40/up 2
21. CUSA-UAB 6-1......................44.....+44/NR
22. MWC-UNLV 2-5.....................28.....+28/NR
23. MAC-Eastern Michigan 4-3......20.....+20/NR
24. MAC-Toledo 4-3.....................18.....-34/dn 6
25. CUSA-Florida Atlantic 4-3.......14......+8/dn 1

NR. #CUSA-Western Kentucky
NR. #MAC-Miami-Ohio/Kent State/Ohio
NR. #MAC-Ball State
NR. #SBC-LA Monroe (tied with ULL in SBC West div)

Others Receiving: None

Dropped out: San Jose State, Western Michigan, Houston


CONFERENCE STRENGTHS

AAC...3503 pts (291.9)
MWC..2185 pts (182.1)
SBC...1054 pts (105.4)
CUSA...222 pts (15.9)
MAC......38 pts (3.2)


...........LAST WEEK’S RANKINGS..........

1. MWC-Boise State 6-0..............929...+41/even
2. AAC-SMU 6-0.........................837......-3/even
3. SBC-Appalachian State 5-0......798..+104/up 1
4. AAC-Cincinnati 5-1..................595...+77/up 2
5. AAC-Central Florida 4-2............583...-35/even
6. AAC-Memphis 5-1....................551..-229/dn 3
7. AAC-Tulane 5-1.......................369...+43/even
8. AAC-Temple 5-1......................303..+117/up 3
9. MWC-San Diego State 5-1........294..+113/up 3
10. MWC- Air Force 4-2................280....+70/dn 1
11. MWC-Hawaii 4-2....................194.....-72/dn 3
12. MWC-Wyoming 4-2................180.....-14/dn 2
13. AAC-Navy 4-1.......................167....+95/up 1
14. MWC-Utah State 3-2..............138.....-20/dn 1
15. CUSA-LA Tech 5-1.................113...+101/up 6
16. SBC-Georgia State 4-2............68.....+64/up 8
17. MWC-Nevada 4-2....................56.....+12/up 1
18. MAC-Toledo 4-2......................52.......+2/dn 2
19. SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-3.........44......-12/dn 4
20. SBC-Louisiana 4-2..................38......-10/dn 3
21. MWC-San Jose State 3-3.........24......+16/up 1
22. MWC-FRESNO STATE 2-3........20.......-18/dn 3
23. MAC-Western Michigan 4-3......10......+10/NR
24. CUSA-Florida Atlantic 4-2..........6.........0/dn 1
25. AAC-Houston 2-4.....................0.......-34/dn 5

Others Receiving: None

Dropped Out: Tulsa


CONFERENCE STRENGTH RANKINGS

*...total pts (avg pts per tot teams)

1. AAC...3405 (283.8)
2. MWC..2115 (176.3)
3. SBC.....948 (94.8)
4. CUSA...119 (8.5)
5. MAC......62 (5.2)

lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Boise vs Cincy...
1). Boise’s win at FSU much greater than Cincy’s win vs UCLA. 45 point spread on this isn’t much, BTW.

2). ESPN FPI agrees with you...barely!
3). Sagarin agrees with this ranking...barely!
4). AP and Coaches agree with you...a tad.


5). Point #1 above is the decider.

(10-20-2019 04:22 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Boise vs Cincy...
1). Boise’s win at FSU much greater than Cincy’s win vs UCLA. 58 point spread on this isn’t much, BTW.

2). ESPN FPI agrees with you...barely!
3). Sagarin agrees with this ranking...barely!
4). AP and Coaches agree with you...a tad.


5). Point #1 above is the decider.

OOC wins aren't the only wins. What win does Boise have that's better than Cincy beating UCF. That's the idiocy that gets me. MWC fans want to act like OOC is the only thing that matters... Sorry but your conference games matter too.

Also sorry but FSU isn't much greater than UCLA. 3 wins vs 2 wins.

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Appalachian State vs Cincy...

1). @P5 win > vs P5 win at home
2). Computers are close except espn FPI agrees with you quite a bit
3). Human polls close

4). App’s @South Carolina is huge...we shall see. You may or may not have a point. I have no idea until the games are played and the season done and CCGs played.

5). But wait! Undefeated is very hard to do no matter record of opponents. App’s opponents not as bad as you portrayed.

You want me to take away App’s 130 point bonus for being undefeated? Moves Boise to 2nd, Cincy still 4th. I ain’t budging. App is very good and so are Cincy and Boise. Appalachian making up for whatever you diss them on with bigger wins vs P5 and nearly as much love from computers and humans as Cincy.

(10-20-2019 04:28 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Appalachian State vs Cincy...

1). @P5 win > vs P5 win at home
2). Computers are close except espn FPI agrees with you quite a bit
3). Human polls close

4). App’s @South Carolina is huge...we shall see. You may or may not have a point. I have no idea until the games are played and the season done and CCGs played.

5). But wait! Undefeated is very hard to do no matter record of opponents. App’s opponents not as bad as you portrayed.

You want me to take away App’s 130 point bonus for being undefeated? Moves Boise to 2nd, Cincy still 4th. I ain’t budging. App is very good and so are Cincy and Boise. Appalachian making up for whatever you diss them on with bigger wins vs P5 and nearly as much love from computers and humans as Cincy.

You say South Carolina. Beating Memphis FAR better than beating South Carolina.

App's opponents ARE that bad. 1 win vs a winning team. That's something that the committee looks at heavily.

Right now Sagarin SOS. Cincy 44 App St 128... Something else that the committee looks at....

Sorry if the final in the AAC was Cincy vs SMU. With SMU only losing once before there- and Cincy winning out- the winner of that game is your G5 rep no matter what anyone else does.....

(10-20-2019 04:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:22 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Boise vs Cincy...
1). Boise’s win at FSU much greater than Cincy’s win vs UCLA. 58 point spread on this isn’t much, BTW.

2). ESPN FPI agrees with you...barely!
3). Sagarin agrees with this ranking...barely!
4). AP and Coaches agree with you...a tad.


5). Point #1 above is the decider.

OOC wins aren't the only wins. What win does Boise have that's better than Cincy beating UCF. That's the idiocy that gets me. MWC fans want to act like OOC is the only thing that matters... Sorry but your conference games matter too.

Also sorry but FSU isn't much greater than UCLA. 3 wins vs 2 wins.

LMAO! You are way off, now. Me being an MWC fan has ZERO/ZIP/NADA to do with this. Computers and humans do. If you don’t think P5 wins for a G5 team isn’t bigger than G5 vs G5, then so be it.

We shall see if CFP coming out in 2 weeks agrees more with this method I use or the human polls or whatever your opinion is based on.

I’m not claiming squat! with my methods. I will know more at season’s end and tweak for next season as appropriate, if tweaking necessary at all.

(10-20-2019 04:45 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:27 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:22 PM)fresnofanatic Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Boise vs Cincy...
1). Boise’s win at FSU much greater than Cincy’s win vs UCLA. 58 point spread on this isn’t much, BTW.

2). ESPN FPI agrees with you...barely!
3). Sagarin agrees with this ranking...barely!
4). AP and Coaches agree with you...a tad.


5). Point #1 above is the decider.

OOC wins aren't the only wins. What win does Boise have that's better than Cincy beating UCF. That's the idiocy that gets me. MWC fans want to act like OOC is the only thing that matters... Sorry but your conference games matter too.

Also sorry but FSU isn't much greater than UCLA. 3 wins vs 2 wins.

LMAO! You are way off, now. Me being an MWC fan has ZERO/ZIP/NADA to do with this. Computers and humans do. If you don’t think P5 wins for a G5 team isn’t bigger than G5 vs G5, then so be it.

We shall see if CFP coming out in 2 weeks agrees more with this method I use or the human polls or whatever your opinion is based on.

I’m not claiming squat! with my methods. I will know more at season’s end and tweak for next season as appropriate, if tweaking necessary at all.

The AAC has done really well the last few years with rated wins coming from their conference games... I don't think beating a mediocre UNC and a mediocre South Carolina team just puts App St in great position. Not when their conference is so bad. App St has the #128 SOS right now... That sucks. Now, could they be a good team? Sure, but their garbage overall schedule kills them.... While they're playing end of season Texas St and Troy- 2 teams that are over 100 in Sagarin for instance right now- Cincy plays Temple and Memphis. Temple is 77 and Memphis is 28. Then in the CCG Cincy could play SMU- who is #37. Meanwhile App St plays if they're lucky #65 Louisiana. Yeah, that matters.

If Western Michigan got in a few years ago playing the schedule they had, App State is definitely in the running. I think WMU may had an even weaker schedule.

(10-20-2019 05:27 PM)wleakr Wrote:  If Western Michigan got in a few years ago playing the schedule they had, App State is definitely in the running. I think WMU may had an even weaker schedule.

And there, it took the AAC and MWC champs having both 3 losses to get in.....

(10-20-2019 06:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 05:27 PM)wleakr Wrote:  If Western Michigan got in a few years ago playing the schedule they had, App State is definitely in the running. I think WMU may had an even weaker schedule.

And there, it took the AAC and MWC champs having both 3 losses to get in.....

Folks always seem to forget that the committee put off deciding the G5 spot until after Army/Navy b/c Navy was still in the running in their eyes even with a worse record than WMU. MAC fans were up in arms about it at the time. It’ll be interesting to see what, if any influence the Ark. St. AD has in the committee room.

(10-20-2019 05:27 PM)wleakr Wrote:  If Western Michigan got in a few years ago playing the schedule they had, App State is definitely in the running. I think WMU may had an even weaker schedule.

(10-20-2019 06:45 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 06:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 05:27 PM)wleakr Wrote:  If Western Michigan got in a few years ago playing the schedule they had, App State is definitely in the running. I think WMU may had an even weaker schedule.

And there, it took the AAC and MWC champs having both 3 losses to get in.....

Folks always seem to forget that the committee put off deciding the G5 spot until after Army/Navy b/c Navy was still in the running in their eyes even with a worse record than WMU. MAC fans were up in arms about it at the time. It’ll be interesting to see what, if any influence the Ark. St. AD has in the committee room.

As I say over and over, this thing that was that I do is just a crude gauge.

That being said, and to your comment about the Committee’s waiting, it could be that the committee throws out all past thinking about picking the G5 this year by thinking the AAC champ automatically gets in due to their conference strength per many popular computers showing AAC pretty much as strong as the ACC this year and all members vote AAC champ higher than Boise or Appy across the board.

IDK. I’m just having fun with this. And would like to know how close this is compared to the committee. I don’t recall how many differences, if any, there have been between the AP and Coaches polls compared to the CFP rankings in determining which G5 was higher.

Good on ya for coming up with a method. My post wasn’t meant to criticize...just trying to clarify the situation from a couple of years ago that often gets misremembered for whatever reason.

ETA: Except for USF who the committee did NOT look favorably upon a couple of years ago, the human polls tend to adjust to the CFP. There may be other schools, I just remember that being a snub week after week in 2017.

(10-20-2019 07:04 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:   Good on ya for coming up with a method. My post wasn’t meant to criticize...just trying to clarify the situation from a couple of years ago that often gets misremembered for whatever reason.

ETA: Except for USF who the committee did NOT look upon favorably a couple of years ago, the human polls tend to adjust to the CFP.

I know. I was mostly speaking to everyone with that. And then adding to what you said about the committee and it’s past thinking on G5 selection.

(10-20-2019 06:45 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 06:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 05:27 PM)wleakr Wrote:  If Western Michigan got in a few years ago playing the schedule they had, App State is definitely in the running. I think WMU may had an even weaker schedule.

And there, it took the AAC and MWC champs having both 3 losses to get in.....

Folks always seem to forget that the committee put off deciding the G5 spot until after Army/Navy b/c Navy was still in the running in their eyes even with a worse record than WMU. MAC fans were up in arms about it at the time. It’ll be interesting to see what, if any influence the Ark. St. AD has in the committee room.

The committee was going to postpone the G5 selection IF Navy won the AAC. Temple won and WMU was selected the same time as everyone else. If Navy wins out (and Memphis loses one more) the committee will take the same wait and see approach.

(10-20-2019 04:06 PM)stever20 Wrote:  lol. Boise isn't ahead of Cincy right now. And frankly when we see the committee, it wouldn't be a surprise if Memphis isn't ahead of them as well...

And I seriously doubt App St is #2. They have 1, I repeat 1 win over a team better than .500. And that was Louisiana. And they have only 1 game left with a team over .500- Georgia St..

Alright, Stever20. I took your criticism seriously and this is the best I can tweak without other things getting even more out of whack. I do admit it looks better top to bottom. The tweak satisfies your beef with Boise over Cincinnati, but any tweaking to get Appalachian causes worse problems. Just could maybe probably possibly be Appalachian State is supposed to be ranked ahead of Cincinnati.

I do like the tweak inspired by you. And it will make even better sense as the remaining SOS of Cincy and App start to take over each of the remaining games. App only besting UC by 7 points now, anyway.

Revised rankings on the left of the original I posted...

SMU 668===1. #AAC-SMU 7-0......................893.....+56/up 1
App. 621===2. #SBC-Appalachian State 6-0...816.....+18/up 1
Cinc. 614===3. #MWC-Boise State 6-1...........703.....-226/dn 2
BSU 596===4. #AAC-Cincinnati 6-1...............658.....+63/even
Mem. 517===5. AAC-Memphis 6-1................597.....+46/up 1
UCF 498===6. AAC-Central Florida 5-2........555......-28/dn 1
Navy 344===7. #MWC-San Diego State 6-1....440....+146/up 2
SDS 330===8. AAC-Navy 5-1.....................344....+177/up 5
Tuln 272===9. MWC-Air Force 5-2...............342.....+62/up 1
AFA 252===10. AAC-Tulane 5-2...................272......-97/dn 3
USU 200===11. MWC-Hawaii 4-3.................202.......+8/even
LATc. 164===12. MWC-Utah State 4-2...........200......+62/up 2
Tem 155===13. AAC-Temple 5-2..................184.....-119/dn 5
Haw. 118===14. #CUSA-LA Tech 6-1...............164......+51/up 1
Wyo. 86===15. MWC-Wyoming 5-2..............144......-36/dn 3
ULL 82===16. #SBC-Louisiana 5-2.................82.....+44/up 4
Fres. 60===17. SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-4.......80.....+36/up 2
UAB 44===18. SBC-Georgia State 5-2..........76.......+8/dn 2
Nev 33===19. MWC-Nevada 4-3..................66.....+10/dn 2
CCU 30===20. MWC-Fresno State 3-3...........60.....+40/up 2
GASt. 29===21. CUSA-UAB 6-1......................44.....+44/NR
Tol. 18===22. MWC-UNLV 2-5.....................28.....+28/NR
FAU 14===23. MAC-Eastern Michigan 4-3......20.....+20/NR
UNLV 11===24. MAC-Toledo 4-3.....................18.....-34/dn 6
EMU 8===25. CUSA-Florida Atlantic 4-3.......14......+8/dn 1

(10-20-2019 08:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 06:45 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 06:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 05:27 PM)wleakr Wrote:  If Western Michigan got in a few years ago playing the schedule they had, App State is definitely in the running. I think WMU may had an even weaker schedule.

And there, it took the AAC and MWC champs having both 3 losses to get in.....

Folks always seem to forget that the committee put off deciding the G5 spot until after Army/Navy b/c Navy was still in the running in their eyes even with a worse record than WMU. MAC fans were up in arms about it at the time. It’ll be interesting to see what, if any influence the Ark. St. AD has in the committee room.

The committee was going to postpone the G5 selection IF Navy won the AAC. Temple won and WMU was selected the same time as everyone else. If Navy wins out (and Memphis loses one more) the committee will take the same wait and see approach.

Correct, they lost and were no longer under consideration by rule. What had folks up in arms was Navy’s record vs. WMU’s record at the time (2 losses vs. undefeated). Many fans felt that gap was too large to be overcome, but the committee didn’t. With precedence set, I agree that a one loss Navy team would make the committee delay a decision as well...assuming other candidates have zero, one or two losses.

Better yet, on top of tempering down on P5 win bonuses and undefeated bonuses, I’ve added a new, small bonus for “on pace for 10 wins” bonus.

#SMU 668===1. #AAC-SMU 7-0......................893.....+56/up 1
#Cin.. 624===2. #SBC-Appalachian State 6-0...816.....+18/up 1
#App. 621===3. #MWC-Boise State 6-1...........703.....-226/dn 2
#BSU 606===4. #AAC-Cincinnati 6-1...............658.....+63/even
Mem. 527===5. AAC-Memphis 6-1................597.....+46/up 1
UCF 508===6. AAC-Central Florida 5-2........555......-28/dn 1
Navy 354===7. #MWC-San Diego State 6-1....440....+146/up 2
#SDS 340===8. AAC-Navy 5-1.....................344....+177/up 5
Tuln 282===9. MWC-Air Force 5-2...............342.....+62/up 1
AFA 262===10. AAC-Tulane 5-2...................272......-97/dn 3
#USU 210===11. MWC-Hawaii 4-3.................202.......+8/even
#LATc 174===12. MWC-Utah State 4-2...........200......+62/up 2
Tem 165===13. AAC-Temple 5-2..................184.....-119/dn 5
Haw. 118===14. #CUSA-LA Tech 6-1...............164......+51/up 1
Wyo. 96===15. MWC-Wyoming 5-2..............144......-36/dn 3
#ULL 92===16. #SBC-Louisiana 5-2.................82.....+44/up 4
Fres. 60===17. SBC-Coastal Carolina 3-4.......80.....+36/up 2
UAB 54===18. SBC-Georgia State 5-2..........76.......+8/dn 2
GASt. 39===19. MWC-Nevada 4-3..................66.....+10/dn 2
Nev. 33===20. MWC-Fresno State 3-3...........60.....+40/up 2
CCU 30===21. CUSA-UAB 6-1......................44.....+44/NR
Tol. 18===22. MWC-UNLV 2-5.....................28.....+28/NR
FAU 14===23. MAC-Eastern Michigan 4-3......20.....+20/NR
UNLV 11===24. MAC-Toledo 4-3.....................18.....-34/dn 6
EMU 8===25. CUSA-Florida Atlantic 4-3.......14......+8/dn 1


NR. #CUSA-Western Kentucky
NR. #MAC-Miami-Ohio/Kent State/Ohio
NR. #MAC-Ball State
NR. #SBC-LA Monroe (tied with ULL in SBC West div)

(10-20-2019 09:19 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 08:14 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 06:45 PM)gulfcoastgal Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 06:26 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(10-20-2019 05:27 PM)wleakr Wrote:  If Western Michigan got in a few years ago playing the schedule they had, App State is definitely in the running. I think WMU may had an even weaker schedule.

And there, it took the AAC and MWC champs having both 3 losses to get in.....

Folks always seem to forget that the committee put off deciding the G5 spot until after Army/Navy b/c Navy was still in the running in their eyes even with a worse record than WMU. MAC fans were up in arms about it at the time. It’ll be interesting to see what, if any influence the Ark. St. AD has in the committee room.

The committee was going to postpone the G5 selection IF Navy won the AAC. Temple won and WMU was selected the same time as everyone else. If Navy wins out (and Memphis loses one more) the committee will take the same wait and see approach.

Correct, they lost and were no longer under consideration by rule. What had folks up in arms was Navy’s record vs. WMU’s record at the time (2 losses vs. undefeated). Many fans felt that gap was too large to be overcome, but the committee didn’t. With precedence set, I agree that a one loss Navy team would make the committee delay a decision as well...assuming other candidates have zero, one or two losses.

The important point in 2016 (and any future year Navy is in the running) was not whether they would take an AAC team with a worse record that WMU, its that they would consider taking NAVY over WMU. And probably wasn't serious talk anyway, merely PR because it was Navy - and everyone (except Army fans) like Navy. That is hardly a model precedent for predicting this year. Cincinnati and Memphis do not have the same good-will as Navy. A one loss AAC champ (or a one-loss Boise) would likely get the NY6 over an undefeated App State, but 2016 does not provide any guidance on that question - unless Navy is in the mix.

That being said, if all else being equal (or relatively so), other than the SMU (finally back from death penalty, and in the new era of pay-for-play talks), App State may provide the best "storyline" since, after all, these games are really just an exhibition to TV (from Michigan upset and FCS champions to NY6 in a dozen years, FCS to NY6 in five years, bowl wins in every year since joining FBS).

Boise State lost without their starting QB. BYU is down to their third string QB. That is why BYU have those close loses. Boise State already played tough competition including Florida State, Air Force, UNR, Hawaii and BYU. Who have SMU, Memphis, Cincinnati and Appalachian State played? UCF was ranked without taken to account that they had to replace starters including Milton from the last year's team. There is no way Cincinnati ahead of Boise State because they got blown out by Ohio State. SMU's win was against TCU who may not go to a bowl, and nearly lost to Tulsa who barely beat Wyoming. Boise still have Wyoming and Utah State that would be tough.